AM — More than 60% of Egyptian adults now have access to the nation’s financial system

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to one of those good-news, bad-news kind of mornings:

FROM THE DEPT. OF GOOD NEWS: New figures from the CBE suggest that more than 60% of Egyptian adults are now participating in the formal financial system — more than double where we stood just a few short years ago.

FROM THE DEPT. OF NOT GOOD NEWS: Importers are reportedly saying they still can’t get goods out of port as the shortage of hard currency lingers even as the central bank moves to lift import restrictions.

There are some near-term catalysts that offer hope the shortage may start to ease in the new year, including the expected approval in December of our IMF facility, continued investment from GCC countries, and the long-awaited opening of the stunning Grand Egyptian Museum, which pundits expect to draw more (bigger-spending) tourists.

(As of this morning, the IMF executive board has released its meeting schedule through 7 December, and we’re not on the list.)

BUT BIG-NAME CEOs AGREE- We need a long-term solution. As we all look ahead to 2023, we’re more convinced than ever that foreign direct investment and exports need to be at the heart of our nation’s economic growth strategy. That’s why we published a five-step recipe that has the power to transform Egypt into a major global export hub and turn us into a magnet for FDI — and then talked it over with 20 top CEOs at an invite-only breakfast. In our CEO poll on FDI and exports that will run through December, we asked each leader two simple questions: If you could pick just one champion industry, what would it be? And why do you think FDI and exports are the way forward?

SPEAKING TODAY: McKinsey & Company Senior Partner Jalil Bensouda, at the head of our news well, below.

Did you miss yesterday’s installment? We spoke with Mohamed El Dababy, general manager of GSK in Egypt.

We’re happy to see frank discussion of how to boost FDI in the Senate: The Senate’s financial and economic affairs committee yesterday discussed a report by the pro-government Mostaqbal Watan party that aims to overhaul how we approach FDI.

The 190-page study cites ten obstacles to growing FDI to Egypt, including red-tape, a lack of incentives, gaps in digital government services, and a lack of transparency and accountability. It also highlights the country’s investment advantages, including the availability of affordable, skilled labor, and robust infrastructure and transport links. There’s also a chapter on how to take the example set on FDI by neighbors including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey. Plenty of that meshes with our five-step recipe to boost FDI and exports.

DATA POINT: Our external debt to GDP ratio remains within a “safe range” at 34.6%, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said at an Egyptian-Chinese investment forum yesterday, according to Hapi Journal. Our high debt levels have been flagged as a risk in parts of the international business press, as the country’s external position is pressured by surging commodity prices, rising interest rates, a hot greenback, and turmoil in the financial markets.

Some of the biggest names in Egypt’s climate industry are appearing at our inaugural Enterprise Climate X Forum, which takes place on Tuesday, 6 December at the Grand Egyptian Museum. Are you?

Hydrogen: What is it, what does a “hydrogen economy” look like and how will we know it’s becoming real? Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, CEO of industry association Hydrogen Europe, is flying in to help us unpack it.

Three industry leaders will talk about climate as the biggest (and most important) business opportunity of our generation: Mohamed Mansour is co-founder and CEO of Infinity. Amr Allam is co-CEO of Hassan Allam Holding. Jointly and separately, they’re building and operating GW worth of renewable energy projects, charging stations, desalination, wastewater, and more. They’ll be joined on stage by Sherif El Kholy, partner and head of MENA at private equity giant Actis, who has a passion for investing in green businesses — and for helping conventional businesses put ESG at the core of what they do.

How are we going to pay for it all? Todd Wilcox, CEO and deputy chairman of HSBC Egypt; Tarek El Nahas, group head of international banking at Mashreq; Khaled Hamza, director and head of Egypt at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); and Nader Abushadi, group treasurer at Dar Group, will help us get our heads around topics including green, sustainability-linked, blended, and concessional finance, as well as how much you need to know about your supply chain.

We’ll also be meeting Shift EV’s Aly El Tayeb and Algebra’s Karim Hussein, the guys who want to be Egypt’s first climate bn’aires. They’ll be talking with USAID Egypt Mission Director Leslie Reed as well as EFG Hermes Head of Strategy Simon Kitchen, who’s flying in from London to talk with us about how business leaders across frontier and emerging markets are getting their heads around climate.

** Have you confirmed your attendance? We’ll be sending you on Sunday, 4 December the QR code you’ll need to gain admission to the Grand Egyptian Museum, along with a Google Maps link and some other pointers.

Tap or click here for the full agenda.

HAPPENING TODAY-

In the House today: The House of Representatives’ manpower committee will hold hearings on the new draft Labor Act today and tomorrow. Representatives from the Egyptian Trade Union Federation and the Federation of Egyptian Industries are expected to attend. The 245-article bill, which was approved by the Senate in February, extends both maternity leave and notice periods, caps working hours, and changes minimum raise increments, among other things. If the House passes the Act, it would replace the current Labor Act of 2003. We have more on the bill’s finer points here.

Senate to pass wildcat building bill today: The Senate is today expected to pass legislation aimed at making it easier for owners of illegal buildings to go legit. Senate Speaker Abdel Wahab Abdel Razek postponed yesterday’s vote by a day to give more members a chance to speak on the bill.

MORNING MUST READ-

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at Green Star, the recently announced government program laying out guidelines for companies that will favor low-carbon products for government purchases. The program will be offering a number of incentives to businesses compliant with the new environmental standards.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD–

Protests are spreading from Shanghai to other Chinese cities as citizens take to the streets to voice frustration over years of strict covid restrictions including ongoing lockdowns. Demonstrations spread to the capital Beijing and dozens of university campuses across the country, in a show of civil disobedience the likes of which hasn’t been seen in mainland China in decades. China’s Hang Seng stock index dropped some 3.7% on this morning’s open. Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, and the FT have more.

Goodbye, ordinary Twitter. Hello, “The Everything App”: New Twitter boss Elon Musk plans to transform the social media platform into “The Everything App,” with features like longfrom tweets, encrypted direct messages, and payments, as part of his plan for “Twitter 2.0,” according to slides from an internal presentation he shared in a tweet. The slideshow also claimed new user signups are at an “all-time high” since Musk took over the platform late last month, recording 2 mn new users a day last week, up 66% y-o-y.

WORLD CUP UPDATE–

It’s day nine of the World Cup: Teams in Group G and H face off today (all times CLT):

• Cameroon v Serbia (12pm)
• South Korea v Ghana (3pm)
• Brazil v Switzerland (6pm)
• Portugal v Uruguay (9pm)

ICYMI- Yesterday’s games saw Costa Rica beat Japan 1-0 and Croatia lock in a convincing 4-1 victory against a young, enthusiastic Canadian side that scored its first-ever World Cup goal. The much-anticipated match between Germany and Spain ended in a 1-1 tie. The Germans now need a victory in their next game against Costa Rica to have a chance of advancing to the knockout stage.

Fans riot in Brussels: Violence broke out in several Belgian and Dutch cities after Morocco upset Belgium with a 2-0 victory yesterday, the AP reports. Police in Brussels used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds.

Never a dull moment between the US and Iran: Iran’s football federation has called for the US national team to get a ten-game ban for “offending the dignity” of the country, after the US federation displayed Iran’s flag on social media without the emblem of the Islamic Republic, the Guardian reports. The US Soccer Federation said it decided to post the image in “support for the women in Iran fighting for basic human rights.” The graphic was soon deleted after a wave of outrage on social media. It’s all ramping up the tension ahead of the two teams’ final Group B match on Tuesday.

MARKET WATCH-

Iraq will ring in the new year with more oil exports: OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer will boost its oil export capacity by 150-250k barrels per day starting next year, the country’s national representative at OPEC Mohammed Saadoon said in an interview with Saudi broadcaster Al Ekhbariya (watch, runtime: 11:15). Next year’s increase is part of Iraq’s longer-term plans to add 1-1.5 mn bpd to its oil exports by 2025, from a current 3.3 mn bpd. The country will fix up its Khor Al Amaya port and marine pipelines to help it increase export capacity, Saadoon said.

Expect a wild week in the oil markets: Geopolitical uncertainty has sent global crude prices on a rollercoaster ahead of a planned price cap on Russian crude and a meeting of the OPEC+ cartel next week, the Wall Street Journal reports. OPEC+ will meet next Monday, 4 December, amid reports that it could look to partially reverse production cuts agreed in October. The next day, the EU will likely move to ban imports of most Russian crude while Western allies are expected to introduce a price cap. Brent futures have swung by 1% or more almost every trading day in November thanks to the uncertainty. Brent is currently trading at around USD 83.74.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

PSA- The deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Program in El Gouna has been pushed one week to next Sunday, 4 December. The two-week program, which kicks off in March 2023, offers executives from Egyptian public and private sector the skills to help them “become a better leader for your organization and support Egypt’s growth in the years ahead.” You can find more information here.

Payment and fintech conference Pafix is being held as part of Cairo ICT 2022 through Wednesday at the Egypt International Exhibition Centre in New Cairo. The conference kicked off yesterday.

The US and Russia will hold nuclear talks in Cairo this week: Washington and Moscow will discuss resuming mutual nuclear inspections during week-long talks from tomorrow until next Tuesday, 6 December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, according to CNN.

EGX-listed Pachin will brief shareholders on acquisition offers it has received in its ordinary general assembly on Tuesday, 20 December, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Dubai-based National Paints Holdings is offering to purchase 100% of Pachin for EGP 29 per share — far outbidding earlier offers from Universal Building Materials and Chemicals (Sipes) and Saybad Industrial Investment that have since been withdrawn.

Pachin’s board gave the Emirati firm the greenlight to conduct due diligence on 13 November, Al Mal reports, citing an EGX disclosure.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We discuss how the education sector is surviving a tougher economy in part two of our sit-down with Mohamed El Kalla, CEO of CIRA Education.

We recently had breakfast with 20 top CEOs to talk about why exports and FDI are key to our economy going forward. After reading our five-step recipe for turning Egypt into a global export hub and FDI magnet, participating CEOs agreed to answer two questions on the record.

Jalil Bensouda (LinkedIn) is senior partner at McKinsey & Company, the global management consulting firm. Jalil re-opened McKinsey’s Cairo office in early 2021 and has built a team of 90 consultants in Cairo. He was previously based in Casablanca as the firm’s managing partner for Francophone Africa and he is also an experienced industrial entrepreneur. Jalil specializes in large-scale transformation of public and private organizations from strategy to implementation and he has long worked with financial and industrial companies on investment and development strategies. He’s also a Moroccan national — a fact more than a little germane to our discussion, as you’ll see below:

ENTERPRISE- Which industry would you put on a focused short list — and why?

JALIL BENSOUDA- I would say definitely tourism if we take a 12-18 month timeframe, because it can deliver the foreign exchange the country needs right now with little up-front investment. All the infrastructure required already exists. What we need to unlock is flight capacity and global promotion, and that can be tackled in a short timeframe. Longer term, I believe in the power of people, and Egypt has a huge talent pool, so I would naturally gravitate toward other service-based industries, including business process outsourcing and customer relations management (CRM). Global demand is steady and Egypt can play a bigger role to attract large CRM players.

If you take a medium-term perspective, Egypt will need to focus and choose 4-6 key export-oriented industries where it has a clear value proposition and go all-in to attract global and national investors to position itself as a regional manufacturing hub to serve Middle East and East African markets. The current context with global supply chain redeployment represents a great opportunity. In the long term, Egypt is already very well positioned on some big bets like hydrogen, where massive investments were announced at COP27. We will need to take the opportunity to create an integrated ecosystem around those investments to locally capture most of the value added.

E- Why are exports and FDI the way forward?

JB- Because the formula is proven. Your five-point plan is spot on and very relevant for Egypt in the current context to create a new S-curve for growth.

It reminds me of the choices Morocco made in late 2000 with the launch of a National economic development program called “Emergence.” Its aim was to accelerate the growth of export-oriented sectors. Morocco chose five industries: automotive, aeronautics, electronics, offshoring and food, all based on the nation’s global competitive advantage.

Its full focus was then on creating the right environment in terms of infrastructure, business environment, and training of local talent to attract both local and foreign investors. And starting with the prime minister’s office, the two big focuses were on execution and speed to attract flagship investors to start creating the momentum. Renault led the push in automotive with a 400k-unit capacity plant, Bombardier in aeronautics.

Today, 12 years later, Morocco has become an export powerhouse in sectors that were merely emerging in 2008. This year, its automotive exports will come in at USD 10 bn with 600k vehicles produced — with 70% local integration. Aeronautics and electronics each deliver USD 3 bn worth of export sales. And it is netting USD 2 bn in revenues from offshoring with more than 100k jobs created. Each of those industries has seen a local industrial ecosystem blossom beyond initial flagship projects with big-name multinationals such as Renault, Stellantis, Boeing and Bombardier.

I am convinced that Egypt can go bigger and faster given its starting point in terms of size and competitive advantages, including its geographical position and “green” and competitive energy and labor costs. But doing it will demand a focus on key sectors, fast-paced decision making, a much more nimble and streamlined end-to-end investment journey, and — more importantly — building trust and confidence with the private sector to allow them to invest with clear visibility on the legal and competitive framework. There is a highly competitive market globally to attract foreign industrial investment, and Egypt can clearly play a winning role in this market.

The CBE’s financial inclusion drive, in numbers: Egypt’s financial inclusion rate — the percentage of citizens above the age of 16 who hold a bank account, mobile wallet or pre-paid card — has grown 131% between 2016 and 2022, according to a Central Bank of Egypt report (pdf) published yesterday. Some 40 mn adults (60.6%) in Egypt were banked by June of this year, up from 17.1 mn in 2016, the report says.

Some 3 mn people entered the financial system in 1H 2022: More than 56% of Egyptian adults — nearly 37 mn people — were banked at the end of 2021, up from almost 53% the year before, according to earlier figures from the CBE.

The CBE is doubling down on its plans to push financial inclusion through 2025 by amending legal and regulatory frameworks, driving growth in fintech and digital financial infrastructure, and ensuring the availability of sustainable finance and a stable economic environment. The report does not go into further detail on these “enablers” of the CBE’s financial inclusion strategy.

REFRESHER– The four-pillar financial inclusion strategy was first launched in 2019 and focuses on consumer empowerment through raising awareness about financial inclusion and consumer rights, diversification in banking and non-banking financial products, supporting the MSME ecosystem, and expanding the use of fintech solutions, according to the report.

 Central Bank Governor Hassan Abdalla and Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly discuss ensuring that FX remains available and stable for strategic goods, according to a cabinet statement. Their statement stressed that they’re working to boost FX reserves by drumming up FX, including by attracting more FDI, boosting tourism, and through the expat car import scheme.

Imports of everything but food and fuel have slowed to a trickle or stopped altogether in the past two weeks as local banks struggle to find the hard currency to issue letters of credit (L/Cs) to get shipments released from ports, importers and bankers are quoted as saying by Bloomberg Asharq.

Blame the ongoing FX crisis: The continued shortage of FX and the rising USD-EGP exchange rate has slowed — but not completely stopped — the flow of goods into the country, Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce Member Ahmed Shiha is quoted as saying. Unnamed sources go further, with one home appliances importer reportedly telling the news outlet that imports have dried up completely.

The CBE in October said it would “gradually” phase out import restrictions, including rolling back by the end of the year a requirement introduced in February that all imports be financed through L/Cs, rather than the cheaper and simpler process of documentary collection. Shipments worth up to USD 500k are now allowed to rely on documentary collection, up from a previous USD 5k limit, while measures were taken to release some imports for private use from ports in November.

CORRECTED ON- 28 November 

A previous version of this story inaccurately quoted a statement from the cabinet on Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s meeting with CBE Governor Hassan Abdullah earlier this week, where the two discussed facilitating FX for imports of strategic and critical goods. They did not suggest that there had been a slowdown in the clearing of goods from customs, as was previously noted. 

It was a quiet night on talk shows yesterday, with the pundits focusing on yesterday’s launch of the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange (EMX).

The kickoff of our commodities exchange yesterday “surpassed expectations,” EMX Chairman Ibrahim Ashmawy told Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 17:22). The 12k tons of Russian wheat offered to traders was nearly twice oversubscribed, Ashmawy said. Some 18 transactions were executed, he added, without providing further details.

The exchange will “limit monopolies or lobbying by traders,” Ashmawy said, adding that farmers and traders could one day potentially sell directly through the EMX. Ashmawy also sat for an interview with Al Hayah Al Youm to mark the launch of the exchange (watch, runtime: 22:43).

Elsewhere in commodities: Our elected representatives at the House of Representatives want some answers on the rice crisis, Kelma Akhira’s Lamis El Hadidi noted, highlighting briefing requests by reps on the shortage (watch, runtime: 8:34) El Hadidi got into a heated debate with Abdel Moneim Khalil, head of internal trade at the Supply Ministry, who said that rice is available and affordable at the ministry’s outlets and supermarkets despite Hadidi’s insistence of a serious supply shortage afoot.

REMEMBER- Rice has been designated as a “strategic commodity” for at least three months under efforts to deter traders who try to exploit the opportunity to hoard rice amid a global shortage of commodities. Producers, sellers and distributors have until Sunday, 4 December to notify the Supply Ministry of what they’ve stockpiled and where they’re keeping it.

Also on the airwaves last night: The Senate has followed the House of Representatives in rubbishing a resolution by the European Parliament condemning Egypt’s human rights record, arguing that the resolution leans on “misconceptions,” Ala Mas’ouleety reported (watch, runtime: 10:17).

On a slow day for mentions of Egypt in the international press, a short documentary by the Intercept asks where the human rights debate that grew up around the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh could go next, as the world prepares for the 2023 iteration of the climate summit in Dubai (watch, runtime: 9:09).

Among the other stories we’re paying attention to this morning:

PHARMA-

EIPICO says it hasn’t been formally told Saudi’s PIF wants to up its stake: EIPICO IR Manager Abdel Raheem Ghareeb tells us that the company has not received any official notice that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) intends to up its stake in the drugmaker. His remarks came after Al Mal, citing sources it says have knowledge of the transaction, reported that the PIF is looking to acquire an additional stake in the EGX-listed company by subscribing to a capital increase worth nearly EGP 149 mn. The capital increase would put an additional 15% stake up for grabs.

BACKGROUND- PIF acquired a 4.7% stake in EIPICO last month for more than EGP 140 mn via its newly-established Egypt investment arm.

KEEPING IT ALL STRAIGHT- Since setting up the Saudi Egyptian Investment Company in August, the PIF has acquired sizeable stakes in several companies and been linked to a number of others in the domestic press, including the Alexandria Mineral Oil Company, EgyptAlum, and Egyptian Media Production City. The investment drive is part of a USD 22 bn package of financial support offered by Gulf allies to help Egypt’s economy through the economic crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine.

INVESTMENT-

SFE likes Chinese FDI: The Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) wants to attract Chinese investors to projects in the Suez Canal corridor and in key economic sectors including renewable energy, desalination, and petrochemicals, Al Shorouk reports the fund’s CEO Ayman Soliman as telling reporters at an Egyptian-Chinese business event.

The Emigration Ministry next year plans to set up a firm through which Egyptian expats can invest in local projects, Emigration Minister Soha Gendy told Bloomberg Asharq. The ministry plans to list the company on the EGX, allowing expats to buy stakes or invest privately, Gendy said, without specifying the types of projects the company will help fund, or its initial and targeted capital.

REAL ESTATE-

Saudi Arabia’s Sumou eyes an entry to our real estate market: Saudi real estate firm Sumou Holding wants to acquire a 49% stake in the Egyptians for Real Estate Investment Fund from Egyptians for Housing and Development for EGP 29.2 mn, CEO Hashem El Sayed told Enterprise, following a bourse filing on Thursday. Egyptians for Housing and Development currently holds a 75.5% stake in the fund, El Sayed said, and plans to form a strategic partnership with Sumou to help it tap into the local market.

Dubai-based real estate investment platform Stake will launch in the local market next year, with operations slated to begin in El Gouna, the fintech’s co-founder and CEO said at the Forbes Under 30 summit, according to Hapi Journal.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

Mobile network operator Orange has landed a consumer finance license from the Financial Regulatory Authority. The FRA decision (pdf) does not specify what new financial services or product Orange plans to bring to market.

Egyptian fintech startup MoneyFellows plans to close a USD 10 mn funding round in Q1 2023, CEO and founder Ahmed Wadi reportedly told Al Borsa.

BANKING-

ADIB rolls out prepaid card: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) will begin offering its new prepaid card, Takka, after getting approval from the Central Bank of Egypt, according to a CBE statement. ADIB will roll out the card, which is Sharia-compliant, through subsidiary Abu Dhabi Islamic Consumer Finance (ADI-CF).

TOURISM-

The Health Ministry will appoint an official to a full-time role leading its efforts to boost health tourism, PM Moustafa Madbouly said, according to a cabinet statement. The official will report directly to the Health Minister, with oversight from the PM.

TECH-

Telecom Egypt inked a cooperation agreement with SAP partner Cloud4C to set up a cloud data center, according to a cabinet statement.

The handshake that buried the hatchet? Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that he could meet formally with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi as the two countries look to mend a decade-long rift. In comments to a Turkish TV channel, Erdogan said “the process with Egypt has started” and “after minister-level talks, we will get together.” His comments come days after the Egyptian and Turkish presidents shared a handshake when they met for the first time at the World Cup in Qatar. The pair spoke for 30-45 minutes and were “happy” with the meeting, Erdogan revealed yesterday. Reuters and Bloomberg have more.

MEANWHILE- El Sisi will visit India on 26 January next year, where he has been invited as the “chief guest” at celebrations to mark the 74th anniversary of Indian independence, according to an Indian Foreign Ministry statement.