Sunday, 2 October 2022

AM — The House of Representatives has a long to-do list this session

TL;DR

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Good morning, friends, and welcome to 4Q 2022. We have a blockbuster issue for you this morning, so let’s jump straight in:

THE BIG STORY here at home this morning- The House is back in session, and they plan to keep us all busy. MPs are back from summer vacation, having kickstarted the new legislative session yesterday. We have a preview in this morning’s news well of what’s going to keep us all on our toes for the next nine months

Already passed: Lawmakers yesterday extended for another six months exceptional security measures in parts of the Sinai peninsula that have been in effect since 2013.

PSA #1- Your commute is about to get a lot worse: Public schools and universities began the 2022-2023 academic year on Saturday. Y’all will want to leave the house a little earlier this morning than you have been.

PSA #2- Winter retail hours are in effect: Shops will now close an hour earlier at 10pm (11pm on Thursdays, Fridays and national holidays) after winter trading hours came into effect on Friday. Cafes and restaurants will close midnight rather than 1am. The government first introduced seasonal retail opening hours in 2020.

PSA #3- All businesses in Sharm El Sheikh will be required to issue e-receipts for B2C transactions as of 1 November, the Tax Authority said Friday. The pilot for the system was launched in April for some 100 businesses. All B2B and B2C invoices across the country are expected to be fully automated by December.

IMAGE OF THE DAY- Ever wonder what bores the tunnels through which the Metro glides? Tap or click here to check out Hassan Allam Holding’s 6.7-m Mixshield tunneling boring machine. Built by Herrenknecht, the machine is being deployed on Cairo Metro’s fourth line.


UPCOMING NEWS TRIGGERS- Here are some data points and news triggers to be on the lookout for in this month of pumpkin spice and all things nice:

  • PMI: We’ll know how Egypt’s private sector fared in September when S&P Global drops its latest PMI release this Tuesday, 4 October. The downturn in activity looked to be easing in August when businesses told the survey that demand and output were rising on the back of slowing inflation.
  • Foreign reserves: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should be out with September’s foreign reserves figures later this week. Reserves remained flat at around USD 33.1 bn in August, having fallen 20% since March due to headwinds caused by the war in Ukraine and tightening financial conditions.
  • Inflation to notch new highs? Analysts are expecting inflation to have continued rising in September due to the weakening EGP after reaching highs not seen since November 2018 in August. We’ll find out when Capmas and the CBE release the figures next week.

Expect another downbeat forecast for the global economy when the IMF releases its latest World Economic Outlook on Wednesday ahead of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings next week (10-16 October). Expect to hear more from the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva, the World Bank’s David Malpass, and co this week in the lead-up to the release.

The Central Bank of Egypt does NOT meet in October to review interest rates. The next monetary policy committee meeting is slated for 3 November.

Eight Austrian water companies are here this week: Headed by Austria’s ambassador to Egypt and the VP of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce, a delegation will meet with government officials and local business leaders on 3-5 October to discuss investment in Egypt’s water, wastewater and desalination projects, the Austrian embassy in Cairo said (pdf) over the weekend.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The UK economy only narrowly avoided a ‘Lehman moment’ in the wake of British PM’s disastrous ‘fiscal event’: Still among the biggest stories in the financial press is the fallout of the chaos unleashed in markets by new British PM Liz Truss and her ostensible numbers man, Kwasi Kwarteng, last week. Market watchers told the Financial Times that the country’s bond markets came perilously close to collapse before the Bank of England stepped in with an emergency bond-buying program on Wednesday. Markets reacted with panic after Truss and Kwarteng plunged them into uncertainty by announcing an unbudgeted cut to the top tax rate at the same time as expanded government spending, in a move that was denounced across the political spectrum and overseas — including by the IMF.

Bye bye, Bolsanaro? Polls suggest former Brazilian president and veteran of the left Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — known as Lula — could storm to a first-round victory in the country’s elections today. A comeback for Lula and his Workers’ Party would upend the Brazilian political scene, which in recent years has been dominated by the right-wing populism of incumbent President Jair Bolsanaro, Reuters reports. If no clear victor emerges among the 11 presidential candidates today, voting will go to a second round run-off between the top two contenders at the end of the month.

ICYMI- Russia annexes Ukrainian land + Kyiv makes bid for Nato membership: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed treaties to formally annex four provinces in Ukraine following a series of referendums denounced by Western nations as illegal and staged, according to the Associated Press. Kyiv formally applied for fast-tracked Nato membership in response to the seizure of its territory, a move which is yet to gain vocal support by the military alliance or its members, Politico reports.

THE BIG ENERGY STORY of the morning-

Italy is the latest victim of Russia’s energy politics after state-owned Gazprom suspended gas supplies to Italy citing a “regulatory issue in Austria,” Bloomberg wrote. Italy sourced about three-quarters of its imported gas from Russia last year and is now scrambling, like most European nations, to lock in new supplies.

All of north Africa wants to get in on the game. Algeria is the latest to look to sell to Europe, Bloomberg reports. Algeria will up exports to Italy by almost 20% to 25.2 bn cubic meters, becoming its biggest supplier by providing 35% of its imports, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said last week, according to Reuters.

Egypt, Qatar and others will begin shipping more LNG to Italy from spring 2023, Descalzi said, without providing further details. Eni is planning to work with Egypt and others to boost its LNG export capacity, but the challenge appears to be Italy’s capacity to process new volumes on receipt, suggesting it may have to look at floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), which were part of the landscape here during our pre-Zohr natural gas crisis.

SIGNS OF THE TIMES-

  • Mobile networks in Europe could go down this winter: Figures in the telecoms industry are warning that blackouts or electricity rationing could disrupt mobile networks across Europe this winter as the continent faces a historic energy crunch. (Reuters)
  • Facebook Meta is slashing its budget for the first time since the company’s founding in 2004 as its share price tanks (-60% YTD) and revenue growth slows amid rising competition. (CNBC | Bloomberg)
  • Spare a thought for Logan Paul: NFT trading volumes are down 97% since peaking earlier this year. Data from Dune Analytics picked up by Bloomberg shows that volumes in September fell to just USD 466 mn, down from a record high of USD 17 bn.

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*** It’s What’s Next day: We have our weekly deep-dive into what makes and shapes pre-listed companies and startups in Egypt, the UAE and KSA, touching on investment trends, future sector insights and growth journeys.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how B2B e-commerce players are handling pressure on margins from inflation as well as the global VC funding squeeze, whether by reallocating investment or revisiting their business models.

enterprise

Somabay Golf Open Tournament 6th – 8th of October: The Somabay Golf Open in Partnership with the Cascades Golf Resort Spa and Thalasso is just around the corner. This event has been a permanent fixture of the Egyptian Golf Calendar for over 20 years and is a great weekend of friendly competition that brings together players from across Egypt and the Region. The event features a practice round and two days of competition, a lavish welcome reception, and gala dinner. Room rates start from EGP 6,250 per person. For booking inquiries, contact +20 (0)100 340 0300 or reservation@thecascadeshotel.com

LEGISLATION WATCH

Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair

The House of Representatives is back in session — here’s what you can expect. After breaking for a three-month summer recess (which included a brief, unscheduled return to sign off on the last cabinet shuffle in August), the House of Representatives kicked off the third legislative season of its five-year term yesterday. Yesterday and today see MPs in procedural sessions before they get down to business tomorrow on a host of long-delayed bills and amendments.

We have a full rundown on bills now before them (below), but we’d also like to know: Will MPs give Hassan Abdalla a full term? The former AAIB boss did us all a solid when he agreed to serve as governor of the central bank after his predecessor stepped down. Hassan is currently acting governor, because the House needs to sign off on any appointment to a full, four-year term.

BUSINESS + FINANCE

UNIFIED INS. ACT- The 217-article draft bill has been more than four years in the making and would give the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) broad new powers to regulate the sector, make ins. compulsory for SMEs and freelancers, and set up new economic courts to mediate disputes.

Status: The Senate approved the bill in April and the House of Representatives is expected to give its final vote sometime this legislative session.

COMPETITION ACT- Amendments to the existing law, which have been up in the air since last year, would among other things give the Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) more power to regulate M&A.

Status: Parliament discussed the amendments extensively with members of the business and legal communities during the last legislative session, but failed to reach common ground on a handful of contentious articles. Tap or click here for our full rundown of the business community’s concerns about the proposed changes to how M&A are regulated.

LABOR ACT- The law would, if enacted, extend both maternity leave and notice periods, cap working hours, and change minimum raise increments. If passed, it would replace the Labor Act of 2003. Tap or click here for our explainer on what the law would mean for your business.

Status: The Senate had approved the bill back in February, after which it referred it back to the House for a final vote. Parliament kicked the final vote on the legislation to the this new legislative session.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE- A government-drafted bill that would establish a council for vehicle manufacturing and a fund to manage the financing of a local electric vehicle assembly industry. This is likely part of government plans to develop the local automotive industry with a focus on EVs, which saw it unveil the outline of its automotive strategy earlier this year.

TAXATION

INCOME TAX ACT- The Finance Ministry had drafted several amendments to the Income Tax Act, including raising the ceiling for income tax exemptions to EGP 15k per year from a previous EGP 9k. Raising the ceiling was part of the wide-ranging EGP 130 bn stimulus package rolled out in tandem with the Central Bank of Egypt’s surprise decision to raise interest rates and allow the EGP to slip against the greenback this March. The tax treatment of investment funds is also part of the act.

Status: The amendments were referred to the House of Representatives after the Madbouly cabinet approved them in April.

DEVELOPMENT + INFRASTRUCTURE

UNIFIED BUILDING CODE- Fresh amendments to the Unified Building Code — which has already been amended multiple times since it was passed in March 2020 — are designed to crack down on unlicensed construction. The new amendments would widen the scope for property owners in violation of the building code to pay “reconciliation fees” to the government to legalize their buildings — as long as the buildings are not a risk to the public.

Status: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly in May discussed the new amendments with other senior officials. The amendments were shipped to the House after they were finalized at cabinet level.

ENVIRONMENT ACT- The government drafted amendments to the 1994 Environment Act, which it passed along to the House of Representatives right before it adjourned for summer recess in July. The proposed amendments would, if passed, give the Environmental Affairs Authority new powers.

Status: These amendments are still in the early days of their legislative life cycle, but could be fast-tracked ahead of COP27.

SOCIAL + POLITICAL

LOCAL ADMINISTRATION ACT- The long-stalled act — which has been facing delays since at least 2016 — aims to decentralize local councils and organize district elections. Government-appointed officials have been running local affairs since a court dissolved municipal councils in 2011, which is when the last municipal elections were held.

Status: Parliament was holding public consultations on the act way back in February 2020, after the House’s Support Egypt coalition rejected the draft as it stood in December 2019. It appears the bill fell by the wayside with the onset of the pandemic, but is expected to gain fresh importance since it will be part of the agenda of the upcoming national dialogue.

CHILD MARRIAGE BAN- The first legislation of its kind would prohibit marriage of anyone under the age of 18 and require marriage officiants to notify prosecutors of any common-law marriage — also known in Arabic as orfi marriage — that involves a child. Those who marry or are involved in the marriage of a child under 18 will face at least one year in jail and a fine of EGP 50k-200k. Family courts could remove guardianship of children in cases where family members are convicted.

Status: Cabinet approved the draft bill in April, after which it was shipped to the House of Representatives for discussion. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has previously said he wants to see the bill get top priority in the House during the 2022-2023 session.

SCHOOL ADMISSION INTERVIEW BAN- A bill drafted by Rep. Fatma Selim aims to outlaw admissions interviews at private and international schools. These interviews, Selim has argued, discriminate against students from lower-income families. If passed, the bill would subject schools that reject incoming students on the grounds of religion, social class, gender, or race to an EGP 2 mn fine and a five-year prison sentence.

PERSONAL STATUS ACT-: The law regulates issues of marriage, divorce, child custody, guardianship, alimony, polygamy, inheritance and other family-related matters largely derived from Sharia. The draft amendments would grant emergency alimony to divorced women and their children, outlaw child marriage, impose penalties on men who remarry without informing their first wife, and regulate the “marriage list” — colloquially known as the Qaema — in which the husband acknowledges that he is liable to return household items his wife purchased in the event of divorce.

Status: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in May urged the government, lawmakers and Al Azhar to draft balanced and fair legislation as soon as possible — and later ordered a committee be set up to draft a new version. Controversial amendments to a previous bill, which critics argued would curb women’s rights and legal protections, were shelved by the House last year after backlash.

WATCH THIS SPACE- The national dialogue could also bring up a handful of political bills, including potential amendments to the 1956 law on exercising political rights, the 2014 law on House of Representatives elections, and the Political Parties Act of 1977.

M&A WATCH

Is Israel about to acquire a piece of Egypt’s oil and gas sector?

Israel’s NewMed could acquire Egypt oil + gas assets via Capricorn merger: Capricorn Energy has abandoned contested plans to merge with Tullow Oil in favor of an all-share tie-up with Israel’s NewMed, according to a joint statement (pdf) out Thursday. Under the proposed terms, shareholders of NewMed — formerly Delek Drilling, well-known partner in Egypt — would acquire almost 90% of the new company, receiving 2.337344 Capricorn shares for each existing share and paying out a USD 620 mn special dividend to Capricorn shareholders.

This would hand NewMed control of Capricorn’s assets in Egypt, paving the way for closer energy ties between Israel and Egypt and creating what the companies described as a “MENA gas and energy champion.”

WHY THIS IS GOOD FOR US- Egypt and Israel signed a landmark gas export agreement in June to ramp up exports to the European Union as it looks to phase out reliance on Russian fossil fuels. The agreement allows Israel to send more gas to Egypt’s LNG facilities for export to Europe.

Bigger production targets: The new group plans to raise its production to over 200k barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day by 2030, up from 115k boe today, company CEO Yossi Abu said during a conference call, according to Reuters. NewMed is considering further developing its Leviathan gas field in a step that could further boost export volumes across the Mediterranean, he said, noting that one option to export more gas to Europe is via a new pipeline linking Israeli fields to Egypt’s LNG terminals.

What’s next: The merger is set to close in the first quarter of next year. The new firm would be listed under NewMed Energy on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and would also pursue a Tel Aviv listing, according to the statement.

The bid trumps Tullow’s original offer: The takeover bid — including the special dividend payout — would value Capricorn shares at a 13% premium to their last closing price. It’s also a 29% premium to Tullow Oil’s original bid, which was criticized by stakeholders for undervaluing the company. NewMed’s bid values the company at USD 338 mn, according to the statement.

Capricorn’s operations here have faced hurdles lately: The company recently lowered its full-year production forecasts in Egypt due to “logistics and commissioning delays,” citing issues with bringing two rigs online. The company now expects to produce 33k-36k barrels of oil equivalent per day this year, down from its previous 37k-43k boe/d estimate.

BACKGROUND- Capricorn — formerly Cairn — has had a presence in Egypt ever since it acquired Shell’s oil and gas assets in the Western Desert with partner Cheiron last year, under an agreement worth up to USD 926 mn.

OTHER M&A NEWS-

Egytrans is looking at acquiring a transport company, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf) last week, without disclosing which companies it’s considering. The company also denied what it said were rumors among traders about a potential acquisition of its shares at a share price of EGP 4.50, saying that it is not aware of any potential takeover bids targeting the firm.

Alex Medical is officially under new ownership: The Tawasol-LimeVest consortium received a 70.2% stake in Alex Medical (10.9 mn shares) for EGP 535.4 mn on Thursday, after its mandatory tender offer closed last week, according to an EGX bulletin.

DEBT WATCH

Record EGP 20 bn issuance tops wave of securitizations, bringing YTD total to >2x last year

Last week was a big one for the securitized bond market. A blockbuster EGP 20 bn issuance by the New Urban Communities Authority’s (NUCA) Al Taamir headed up a string of securitizations last week, as an already hot market gets hotter.

Last week’s issuances more than double the total value of securitized bonds brought to market so far this year to some EGP 42 bn, according to data tracked by Enterprise. That dwarfs the EGP 15.8 bn taken to market during the whole of 2021.

FIRST UP- NUCA closes biggest ever securitized bond issuance: Al Taamir — a special purpose vehicle owned by the government’s New Urban Communities Authority — closed its EGP 20 bn securitized bond issuance after the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) approved (pdf) the move, according to Amwal El Ghad.

NUCA broke its own record for the market’s largest securitization: The authority closed an EGP 10 bn issuance in 2020. The proceeds were earmarked to finance the development of new urban areas including the new administrative capital and New Alamein.

Advisors- Dreny & Partners acted as legal counsel to NUCA on the issuance.


PLUS- EFG Hermes Corp-Solutions closed an EGP 2.0 bn securitized bond issuance on Thursday, EFG Hermes’ investment banking division said in a statement (pdf). This is the second securitization issuance for the leasing and factoring player, which executed a EGP 790 mn bond sale in December.

Advisors: EFG Hermes was the sole financial advisor, transaction manager, bookrunner, underwriter, and arranger on the issuance. Dreny & Partners acted as legal advisor and KPMG audited the issuance.


AND- Tamweel Mortgage Finance closed an EGP 1.6 bn issuance, financial advisor CI Capital said in a statement (pdf). The issuance marks the second tranche of Tamweel’s debut EGP 3 bn securitized bond program, the FRA said.

Advisors- CI Capital acted as financial advisor, issuance manager, and lead arranger for the issuance.


LAST, BUT NOT LEAST- GlobalCorp issued EGP 1.3 bn in securitized bonds — the second tranche of its EGP 5 bn securitized bond program, the non-bank lender said in a press release (pdf). The group in December issued the first EGP 985 mn tranche of the program, which is set to wrap next year.

Advisors- CI Capital acted as financial advisor, issuance manager, and lead arranger. CIB also acted as financial advisor, while Dreny & Partners were legal counsel and KPMG were auditors.

DEBT WATCH

In a market first, TCI Sanmar issues bonds to restructure 15% of its debt

TCI Sanmar issued bonds worth USD 117.7 mn in a private placement with nine foreign banks, according to a statement (pdf) from its legal counsel on the transaction, Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy. The industrial chemicals maker issued the bonds by converting 15% of its debt into non-convertible debentures (NCDs), marking the first time debt has been converted to bonds and issued on the local market, the law firm said in its press release. Matouk Bassiouny Associate Lawyer Shery Soliman declined to name the banks involved when we asked yesterday.

Non-convertible debentures? Debentures are long-term debt instruments that aren’t backed by any form of collateral. The “non-convertible” part means that TCI Sanmar’s bonds can’t be converted into equity shares. “Issuing non-convertible bonds will allow the company a period of time with low interest to repay its debt.”

Advisors: Arab African International Bank (AAIB) acted as the onshore security agent and subscription receiving bank on the transaction, while White & Case was the legal counsel to the banks.

About TCI Sanmar: The Indian industrial chemicals manufacturer has invested some USD 1.5 bn into local factories for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, calcium chloride and green ethylene, making it India’s largest investor in the country, according to its website.

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AUTOMOTIVE

Car sales fell once again in August

Auto sales were down by more than half in August compared with the same month a year before as the market continues to struggle with barriers to import. Passenger car sales dropped nearly 53% y-o-y last month to just 8.7k vehicles, according to figures provided by the Automotive Information Council (AMIC).

Buses and trucks were no exception: Around 1k buses were sold in August — down more than 47% y-o-y. Truck sales saw a near 14% y-o-y drop to around 3.7k units. Total vehicle sales dropped 45% y-o-y to 13.4k units.

ICYMI- It’s been tough terrain for the auto sector. Passenger vehicle sales also halved y-o-y in July, extending months of steep declines. The market has been hit by rules requiring importers to get letters of credit (L/Cs) that limited imports to a handful of essential goods, leaving new cars and car parts stranded at ports and pushing a number of global car manufacturers to suspend sales here.

The sector is hoping its luck will soon turn: The blockbuster economic conference we’re expecting at some point this month could include steps to resolve import challenges, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said last week. Meanwhile, the government’s automotive committee held its first meeting last week, suggesting we could soon get more details on the automotive strategy that aims to increase local assembly and reduce the sector’s reliance on imported parts and cars.

RETAIL

BTECH opens store #143, says it will do 10 more before year’s end

Our friends at BTECH, the home and consumer electronics retailer, opened store number 143 yesterday, cutting the ribbon on the >3k sqm, EGP 32 mn “megastore” on Port Said St. in Alexandria’s Sidi Gaber neighborhood. The opening (pdf) gives the retailer, backed by UK-based private equity firm DPI, 15 stores in Alexandria and another five across the North Coast.

“We have 10 more stores to open before the end of the year,” CEO Mahmoud Khattab told us yesterday. “Whatever the macroeconomic headwinds, we’re opening a new store every 10 days — and creating new jobs as we do so. The current challenges will end, and we need to be ready to capture the upside when it does.”

This is the seventeenth store BTECH has opened in partnership with the Holding Company for Tourism and Hotels, turning a shop owned by the state institution into a modern retail outlet. “We have invested more than EGP 180 mn alongside the Holding Company since we started working with them more than six years ago,” Khattab said. “It’s a great example of public-private cooperation.”

The new Alex megastore includes BTECH’s first in-store zone solely for its B2B line of business. “We’re well known for our consumer facing business, but business-to-business is increasingly important to us,” Khattab said, adding that the store will also have a hands-on after sales service area to help shoppers set up or troubleshoot purchases. BTECH figures the new store will see footfall in the range of 35k shoppers per month.

CORRECTION- An earlier version of this story incorrectly said this is the sixteenth store BTECH has opened with the Holding Company for Tourism and Hotels.

CAPITAL MARKETS

EKH announces USD 20 mn share buyback + EFG Hermes tops the brokerage league table in September

Egyptian Kuwait Holding (EKH) will spend USD 20 mn buying back around 1.5% of the company (16.9 mn shares) over the next year in a bid to buoy its share price, the company said in disclosures to the EGX (here, pdf and here, pdf) on Wednesday. The company’s share price rose 3.0% on Thursday.

Arresting the decline: The company’s share price has fallen almost 18% since March, despite reporting two consecutive quarters of record earnings during the first half of the year on the back of rising fertilizer prices. Its net income rose 60% y-o-y to USD 72.4 mn during 2Q 2022, while revenues rose 53% y-o-y to USD 284.8 mn.

It’s not the only one looking to prop up its share price: Edita and e-Finance are among several companies to have announced buyback programs in recent weeks. Inflationary pressure, rising interest rates in western economies, and global market volatility have all contributed to a risk-off from emerging markets. The benchmark index fell to its lowest level since November 2016 earlier this year, and is currently down nearly 18% YTD.

Advisors: Al Ahly Pharos will execute the buyback program.

ALSO IN CAPITAL MARKETS- EFG Hermes once again topped the EGX’s brokerage league table in September, with a market share of 20.4%, according to figures from the EGX (pdf). Rounding out the top five were CI Capital (6.4%), Mubasher (4.5%), Pioneers Securities (4.0%), and Prime Securities (3.3%).

EARNINGS WATCH

Qalaa Holdings reports first quarter in black since 2018 in 2Q 2022

Qalaa Holdings returned to the black for the first quarter since 2018 in 2Q 2022 on the back of record revenues driven by improved refining margins at the Egyptian Refining Company (ERC). The company generated a net income of EGP 361.6 mn during the April-June quarter, compared to EGP 401.5 mn in losses last year, after revenues soared to almost EGP 27 bn, up 165% on 2Q 2021, according to its earnings release (pdf).

In detail: ERC’s revenues tripled y-o-y to EGP 21.5 bn, driven by improvement in refined petroleum product prices and an increasing gross refining margin, contributing c. 80% to total revenues. Operations experienced no slowdowns or shutdowns during the quarter. Qalaa subsidiary TAQA Arabia’s revenues rose 13% y-o-y to EGP 2.5 bn, driven by a strong performance at TAQA Petroleum, higher power distribution volumes at TAQA Power, and volume growth at TAQA Gas.

Looking ahead: “Qalaa’s results are vulnerable to FX changes owing to Qalaa’s sizable USD-denominated debt,” said co-founder and managing director Hisham El Khazindar. “Consequently, any further depreciation in the [EGP] may impact the group’s results.” The company’s debt restructuring efforts are progressing and remain a priority, he said, noting that ERC is in negotiations with its lenders for a full debt restructuring.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

There are now 104 mn of us — which got the talking heads going: The country’s population surpassed 104 mn yesterday, according to Capmas figures (pdf). We passed the 103-mn mark in February, meaning that in the interim, one baby was born on average every 19 seconds, the national statistics agency pointed out.

The country has succeeded in bringing the birth rate down from 3.5 children per woman on average to 2.8 children per woman — and we’re aiming to get it down to 1.6 children per woman, “like in developed countries,” Hussein Abdel Aziz, advisor to the head of Capmas, told Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 8:53). El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 1:33) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 2:59) also had the story.

New year, new unis: The new academic year marks the kickoff of operations at 12 new national universities, including 10 tech universities and two private universities, Higher Education Minister Mohamed Ashour told Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 5:36). Masaa DMC also covered the start of the 2022/2023 academic year (watch, runtime: 4:12).

Thin fino, thick fino: Since the lapse of government controls on the price of unsubsidized bread that were brought in for three months starting in March, it’s up to each bakery to determine the price and weight of its fino bread loaves, Attia Hamad, head of the bakeries division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce, told El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 18:04). That said, Attia’s idea of a reasonable fino ranges between EGP 0.50-0.75 per 40-gram loaf, he added.

PLANET FINANCE

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US stocks closed in the red for the day, the week, the month and the quarter by the end of Friday’s trading session, closing another terrible three months for financial markets that have been roiled by rising interest rates and the fallout from the war in Ukraine, CNBC reports. The S&P 500 had its worst month since March 2020 in September (-9.3%), while the Nasdaq is now at its lowest level since July 2020 after losing another 1.5% on Friday and 10.5% during the month. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones closed below 29k for the first time since November 2020 after falling 1.7% on Friday, leaving it 8.8% in the red for September.

Salik shares pop in first day of trading: Dubai’s toll gate operator Salik’s share price rose as much as 20% in its trading debut last week, Bloomberg reports, after pulling in over USD 50 bn of orders during subscription. Initially priced at AED 2.00 per share, Salik shares rose to a high of AED 2.40 at the market open last Thursday before closing at AED 2.22. The offering was Dubai’s third IPO of the year.

Advisors: Our friends at EFG Hermes (pdf) and HSBC were joint bookrunners alongside Citigroup, while Emirates NBD, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch were global coordinators.

Porsche shares closed flat on their first day of trading on Thursday, completing their blockbuster EUR 75 bn listing in Frankfurt. Shares rose as much as 2.9% but fell back to close at the listing price of EUR 82.50 amid a 1.7% decline in the benchmark DAX index. The listing was Germany’s second-largest IPO; shares closed on Friday essentially unchanged at EUR 82.52, according to market data. (Reuters | Bloomberg | FT | CNBC)

Up

EGX30

9,827

+1.3% (YTD: -17.8%)

Up

USD (CBE)

Buy 19.51

Sell 19.59

Up

USD at CIB

Buy 19.53

Sell 19.59

None

Interest rates CBE

11.25% deposit

12.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

11,405

+2.1% (YTD: +1.1%)

Down

ADX

9,751

-0.7% (YTD: +14.9%)

Up

DFM

3,339

+0.7% (YTD: +4.5%)

Down

S&P 500

3,586

-1.5% (YTD: -24.8%)

Up

FTSE 100

6,894

+0.2% (YTD: -6.7%)

Up

Euro Stoxx 50

3,318

+1.2% (YTD: -22.8%)

Down

Brent crude

USD 85.14

-2.3%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 6.77

-1.6%

Up

Gold

USD 1,672.00

+0.2%

Down

BTC

USD 19,310.25

-0.8% (YTD: -58.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.19 bn (20.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is down 17.8% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+6.1%), Eastern Company (+2.8%) and Telecom Egypt (+2.4%).

In the red: Juhayna (-1.4%), EFG Hermes (-1.1%) and Credit Agricole (-0.5%).

whatsNext

How are B2B e-commerce players handling working capital pressures + the VC funding squeeze? For a large number of startups that rely mostly on VC funding for growth, the global VC funding squeeze (which has also landed locally) has been a harsh wake-up call. Tougher economic conditions further added to the pressures on startups’ working capital, with some B2B e-commerce startups — particularly those with hefty infrastructure investments — having to revisit their business models and plan for more sustainable growth amid market disruptions.

IN CONTEXT- News over the past weeks of startups struggling to pay their dues and implementing cost-cutting measures amid market headwinds have put the B2B commerce sector — and the startup scene at large — in the limelight. After Capiter’s high-profile meltdown, social commerce startup Brimore issued a statement (pdf) saying that it would restructure and cut costs in a bid to reach profitability. Brimore says it will tweak its business model, but stopped short of getting into what that means.

Some are just reallocating investments: In a different vein, MaxAB — which has just launched its embedded finance product — is doubling down on international expansion to leverage more resilient markets like Morocco, where it already operates, and Saudi Arabia, which it plans to enter at the beginning of next year, CEO and co-founder Belal El Megharbel told Enterprise. Its expansions in Egypt are also focused outside of the Greater Cairo area, where the startup sees underserved areas as more attractive and less competitive than central cities, and most of its investments are going towards fintech products and tech. Fatura is similarly looking at expanding its BNPL product, but will focus on scaling up existing verticals rather than tapping new ones, CEO Hossam Ali told us.

Behind the shift? The market has been dominated by two different models: One that is asset-heavy — in that the startup owns fleets, warehousing and other infrastructure — and one that is asset-light, with the role of the digital marketplace and its services acting as the core of the business. Asset-heavy companies include Capiter, MaxAB and Brimore, while Fatura, Cartona and MNT-Halan’s Talabeyah are some of the big names in the asset-light end of the pool.

The problem: Asset-heavy startups need (a lot of) capital to expand: These startups “have to pay a lot of CAPEX in building infrastructure, while also needing a lot of working capital to buy inventory,” CEO of the Cairo Angels Syndicate Fund (CASF), Aly El Shalakany, tells us. The fact that there are a lot of players in the market also drives them to expand at a faster rate, burning more liquidity in the process. “They require a huge amount of cash until they are able to become dominant in the market” and then hit the black, he explains.

…which explains why funding rounds in the sector have varied widely in size. Asset-heavy startups like Capiter, which raised USD 33 mn from regional and global investors, and Brimore, which raised USD 25 mn in series A funding, have raised mega rounds in recent years. MaxAB has raised USD 40 mn in its series A round, following a record USD 6.2 mn seed round in 2019. On the other hand, startups with lighter CAPEX costs raised a fraction of those amounts, with Fatura getting a total of USD 4 mn before it was acquired by EFG Hermes’ Tanmeyah, and Cartona raising a larger USD 12 mn in its series A round.

FOMO? Talabeyah, a platform launched in 2020 and promising next-day delivery and inventory management solutions for merchants, struggled to raise funds at its initial stages. “We were driven to have positive economics and a clear path towards breaking even, but investors were saying we weren’t moving as fast as the competition,” Talabeyah CEO Karim Nassef told us. Over at MaxAB: “We were very focused from the beginning on achieving the right metrics, which to us are not revenues and sales, but profitability and operational efficiency, and building scalable technologies and strong foundations with suppliers,” El Megharbel said, adding that investors did “push” for more growth.

But some investors were looking for the outliers… Talabeyah was acquired by MNT-Halan in June — part of what made Talabeyah attractive was steady and sustained growth. “Talabeyah’s business model was fundamentally strong,” MNT-Halan Vice President of Investments Andre Valavanis tells us, explaining that the reason they acquired them was that “the founders have a growth mindset while focusing on positive unit economics.”

…and the asset-light models, which some found carried less risk: Fatura was also acquired in June by EFG Hermes’ Tanmeyah. “For us, the benefits of being asset-light outweighed the risks and the additional margins of the asset-heavy model,” El Shalakany, who was an early investor in Fatura, said.

These challenges are not sector-specific, and could impact others on Planet Startup: “The mindset of heavily subsidizing and burning cash is flawed, and this was exposed with the global correction,” Valavanis said. Adds El Shalakany: “If you keep heavily subsidizing the customer below margin cost, your goal is to eventually dominate the market before doing what you want with the customer,” saying that there’s a lot of “unhealthy competition” in markets like FMCG and food delivery. “The reality is that this is not going to happen, especially in these sectors, where the loyalty of the customer lies with the price, not necessarily with the company.”

NEXT WEEK: Let's talk financials. We will look at how B2B commerce startups can amend their financial models to make up for the lack of VC appetite, and about potential financing options they can resort to at this time and age.


Your top stories on future trends for the week:

  • Is Saudi fintech Sanad Cash moving in on Capiter? Saudi fintech platform Sanad Cash reportedly wants to acquire 60% of crisis-stricken B2B e-commerce startup Capiter.
  • Proptech startup Partment secured USD 1.5 mn in a pre-seed round led by Nclude Fintech Innovation Fund and Plus Venture Capital and with the participation of a group of angel investors.
  • B2B e-commerce marketplace Mazaya closed a USD 5 mn pre-seed round led by Raya Trade and Distribution.
  • Kashat, the region’s first provider of nano-loans, has landed funding from both Plug & Play and Launch Africa as part of its ongoing fundraising drive.

CALENDAR

OUR CALENDAR APPEARS in two sections:

  • Events with specific dates or months are right here up top
  • Events happening in a quarter or other range of time with no specific date / month appear at the bottom of the calendar.

SEPTEMBER

27 September-27 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The Egyptian Museum the Manial Palace Museum host a book fair.

OCTOBER

October: Air Sphinx, EgyptAir’s low-cost subsidiary to commence operations.

October: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

4-8 October (Tuesday-Saturday): The Chemical and Fertilizers Export Council of the Trade and Industry Ministry is organizing a trade mission to Kenya.

6 October (Thursday): Armed Forces Day, national holiday.

8 October (Saturday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, national holiday.

10 October (Monday): The CEO Women Conference.

10-14 October (Monday-Friday): Gitex Global, Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre, Dubai, UAE.

10-16 October (Monday-Sunday): World Bank and IMF annual meetings, Washington, DC.

15 October (Saturday): Cairo Metro will launch a global tender for maintenance work on the power stations and overhead catenary system of Line 1.

16-19 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo Water Week 2022, Nile Ritz Carlton, Cairo.

17 October (Monday): Fifth Egypt and UN-led regional climate roundtable ahead of COP27, Geneva, Switzerland.

18 October (Tuesday): The Egyptian-Swedish business forum, Stockholm, Sweden.

23-25 ​​October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt economic conference, Cairo, Egypt.

24 October (Monday): Empowering Sustainable Trade Flows with Factoring conference, St. Regis Cairo.

27 October (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

27-30 October (Thursday-Sunday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

30 October – 1 November (Sunday – Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Centre (EIEC) in New Cairo.

Late October-14 November: 3Q2022 earnings season.

Late October: First Abu Dhabi Bank to complete full integration with Bank Audi’s Egyptian operations after merger.

NOVEMBER

1-2 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

1-2 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab League annual summit, Algiers, Algeria.

3 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

3-5 November (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Fashion Week.

4-6 November (Friday-Sunday): Autotech auto exhibition, Cairo International Exhibition and Convention Center.

6-18 November (Sunday-Friday): Egypt will host COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh.

7 November (Monday): The inauguration of the first line of the high-speed rail.

9 November (Wednesday): Finance Ministry to host “Finance Day” at COP27.

7-13 November (Mon-Sun): The International University Sports Federation (FISU) World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

21 November-18 December (Monday-Sunday): 2022 Fifa World Cup, Qatar.

DECEMBER

3 December (Saturday): Dior Men’s pre-fall collection show in Giza.

13-14 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

13-15 December (Tuesday-Thursday): US-Africa Leaders Summit.

15 December (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

22 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

December: The Sixth of October dry port will begin operations.

December: Egypt to expand Sudan electricity link capacity to 300 MW.

JANUARY 2023

January: EGX-listed companies and non-bank lenders will submit ESG reports for the first time.

January: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

1 January (Sunday): Use of Nafeza becomes compulsory for air freight.

1 January (Sunday): Residential electricity bills are set to rise as per the government’s six-year roadmap (pdf) to restructure electricity prices by 2025.

7 January (Saturday): Coptic Christmas.

24 January-6 February: The 54th Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibition Center

25 January (Wednesday): 25 January revolution anniversary / Police Day.

26 January (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 25 January revolution anniversary / Police Day.

FEBRUARY 2023

11 February (Saturday): Second semester of 2022-2023 academic year begins for public universities.

13-15 February (Monday-Wednesday): The Egypt Petroleum Show (Egyps), Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

23-27 February (Thursday-Monday): The eighth annual Business Women of Egypt’s Women for Success conference.

MARCH 2023

March: 4Q2022 earnings season.

23 March (Wednesday) — First day of Ramadan (TBC). Maghreb will be at 6:08pm CLT.

APRIL 2023

17 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

22 April (Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Tuesday): Sinai Liberation Day.

27 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

Late April – 15 May: 1Q2023 earnings season.

MAY 2023

1 May (Monday): Labor Day.

4 May (Thursday) National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

22-26 May (Monday-Friday): Egypt will host the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings in Sharm El Sheikh.

JUNE 2023

19-21 June (Monday-Wednesday) Egypt Infrastructure and Water Expo debuts at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

28 June-2 July (Wednesday-Sunday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Friday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY 2023

18 July (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

20 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Sunday): Revolution Day.

27 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day.

Late July-14 August: 2Q2023 earnings season.

SEPTEMBER 2023

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER 2023

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2022: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2022: IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Egypt. Date + location TBA.

2H 2022: The government will have vaccinated 70% of the population.

3Q 2022: Ayady’s consumer financing arm, The Egyptian Company for Consumer Finance Services, to release its first financing product.

3Q 2022: Swvl to close acquisition of Urbvan Mobility.

4Q 2022: Infinity + Africa Finance Corporation to close acquisition of Lekela Power.

4Q 2022: Electricity Ministry to tender six solar projects in Aswan Governorate.

4Q2022: Raya Holding subsidiary Aman and Qalaa Holdings’ Taqa Arabia to launch their fintech company.

4Q 2022: Saudi Jamjoom Pharma to inaugurate its EGP 1 bn pharma factory in El Obour.

End of 2022: Decent Life first phase scheduled for completion.

End of 2022: e-Aswaaq’s tourism platform will complete the roll out of its ticketing and online booking portal across Egypt.

2023: Egypt will host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors in 2023.

1Q 2023: Adnoc Distribution’s acquisition of 50% of TotalEnergies Egypt to close.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish above between the actual holiday and its observance.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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