AM — Issa calls for USD 30 bn in tourism investment, sets target of 30 mn visitors by 2028

Good morning, wonderful people, and a very happy Monday. If you’re among our Egypt-based readers, you need only get through today and you’ll officially be halfway through this shorter week.

THE BIG STORY here at home: It’s all tourism as Travco Group says it will spend some EGP 7 bn to up its hotel capacity 13%. That will be music to the ears of Tourism Minister Ahmed Issa, who yesterday told the Senate that the private sector needs to lead the way on some USD 30 bn of investments to get annual visitor arrival numbers up to 30 mn by 2028.

Remember: Tourism isn’t just a volume game. As the leaders of industry players including Travco and Somabay have told us before, it’s also about the average spend per tourist. We need to be targeting high-spenders and ramping up the quality of our overall tourism offering, from the airport experience (including dutyfree shopping), to the experiences we sell visitors, to the roads those visitors travel down to get to those experiences.

Investor appetite for EGX continues to grow post-float of the EGP: Turnover was up by more than a quarter on the 90-day average in the benchmark EGX 30 yesterday, which closed up 0.3%. The index has gained 10.4% YTD. The EGP was effectively unchanged yesterday at 29.89, according to the official central bank exchange rate. The EGP started the year at 24.70 to the greenback.

PSA- CBE confirms the long weekend: Banks will be off this Thursday in observance of Police Day and the 25 January revolution, the Central Bank of Egypt said in a statement yesterday. Look for a similar announcement from the EGX later in the week.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

Anybody want to offer private lessons for tutors on taxation? The Senate is set to discuss the possibility of imposing a 10% income tax on teachers who provide private tutoring, with the proceeds to be spent on improving public schools. Education Minister Reda Hegazy will also deliver a statement on education reform.

The national handball team faces Denmark tonight at 9:30pm CLT for its last group-stage game of the International Handball Federation’s 2023 World Championship. Whatever happens, we’re already through to the quarter-finals.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

El Sisi heads to India: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will lead a delegation including ministers and other officials on a three-day visit from Tuesday, 24 January to Thursday, 26 January at the invitation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. El Sisi will be honored as “chief guest” at celebrations to mark the 74th anniversary of Indian independence.

Moves to come on mortgages + sale of real estate to folks living abroad? The central bank, the Financial Regulatory Authority, and the government’s Social Housing Fund have been tasked with putting together a plan to support real estate finance, as well as boost real estate sales to folks living abroad in a bid to bring FX inflows to the sector, according to a cabinet statement.

In context: The central bank’s subsidized mortgage scheme for middle-income earners was cut back in November, in tandem with the scheme’s move to the Housing Ministry as requested by the IMF. Meanwhile, the government has been exploring ways to sell land plots in return for hard currency, one of several measures meant to give a boost to the nation’s stock of foreign exchange.

Some government employees have been given the keys to their apartments in the new administrative capital, Youm7 reports, citing unnamed sources it says are in the know. Some 30k civil servants are set to move to their new offices in the new administrative capital by mid-March.

WATCH THIS SPACE- The Supply Ministry is set to finalize the “fair prices” of a number of food and consumer commodities this month, Al Mal reports, adding that it is “close to putting the finishing touches” to the indicative price list.

REFRESHER- The Supply Ministry was reportedly set to announce the price list at the end of December after setting up a committee to advise on fair prices to clamp down on price gouging amid soaring inflation.

COME TO OUR NEXT ENTERPRISE FORUM-

We’re excited to unveil our next C-level event: The Enterprise FDI + Exports Forum, where we will take a deep dive into two of the most critical topics affecting our community.

Exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) have never been more important to our economy — or our businesses — than in the wake of the float of the EGP. We think we have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to build an export-led economy that makes us a magnet for FDI and all the benefits that will come with it for our nation.

The Enterprise FDI + Exports Forum asks a simple question: Where do we go from here?

The Enterprise FDI + Exports Forum is the latest in our series of must-attend, invitation-only gatherings for C-suite-level business leaders, where they can talk openly and honestly about important issues in key parts of the economy. The gathering, which will take place in May 2023, will focus on how to start making moves across continents, including:

• What do we have to sell to global markets, including products and services? What should our priority industries be?
• How can you break into an export market? How can you make your business a component of the global supply chain? Hear directly from potential partners and buyers about what they’re looking for.
• How to leverage big domestic trends — and turn them into massive export opportunities.
• How to climb the value-add ladder in a way that matches up with trends in key export markets.
• How do you choose an export market? What countries should Egyptian businesses be looking at as export targets — and why?
• What are foreign investors looking for? How can you pitch them on a JV — or on investing in your business?

Think of the Enterprise FDI + Exports Forum as a hands-on lab for how to turn the float of the EGP into something that will turbocharge your company.

COMING IN MAY — stay tuned for updates.

Want to partner with us on the conference? Ping a note to Moustafa Taalab, our head of commercial, here.

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FROM THE GLOBAL BUSINESS PRESS- It’s not just tech: Bank layoffs are giving us flashbacks to 2008. More banks are expected to follow in the footsteps of lenders including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of New York Mellon, who have already begun cutting more than 15k jobs, the Financial Times reports.

Though not everyone in finance is feeling the pinch: Ken Griffin’s hedge fund Citadel ended last year USD 16 bn in the green — the largest USD gain ever made by a hedge fund, Bloomberg and the FT report.

Four still-brewing international stories worth keeping an eye on:

• Brazil and Argentina are mulling establishing a common currency (Financial Times)
• Sweden is worried about Turkish opposition to its Nato membership bid after officials in Stockholm allowed a “Qur’an-burning protest” (FT)
• There may be a chance that the Fed dials back its next rate increase when it meets next week (Wall Street Journal)
• Is this the next big activist fight? Elliott Management has taken a stake in Salesforce (WSJ)

ICYMI-

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at the positive reception among manufacturers for the government’s recent decision to implement fresh 11% subsidized loans for industry and agriculture.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Cairo International Book Fair will open its doors to the public at the International Exhibition Center in New Cairo this Thursday, 26 January. The event runs until 6 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: How is the FX crunch affecting university students both at home and abroad?

High-profile tourism firm Travco Group plans to invest EGP 7 bn this year to raise its hotel capacity amid expectations of an increase in tourist arrivals, Bloomberg Asharq reports. The company is aiming to increase the number of rooms by 13% to 17k, Chairman Hamed El Chiaty reportedly told the news outlet. Around 60% of the investment will be self-financed and the remainder will be funded via bank loans, he said.

About Travco Group: Travco Group currently owns 58 hotels and resorts across the country as well as 22 Nile cruise ships, according to its website. It is the local agent for Germany's TUI Group.

A lot more people are expected to visit Egypt this year: Fitch Solutions forecast in a recent report that Egypt’s tourism revenues will rise to a record USD 13.6 bn this year, up 18% from 2022, while the number of tourists visiting the country will jump 46% to 11.6 mn.

Travco is already riding a rebound in the sector: “We achieved a 40% growth in tourist arrivals last year, with significant improvement [seen] during the second half of 2022,” El Chiaty said, while declining to give an exact number. The growth in tourist arrivals encouraged the company to raise its average hotel rates by 15- 20%, he said.

REMEMBER- Tourism is well on its way to recovering from the pandemic: A key source of foreign currency for Egypt, tourism brought more than USD 4.9 bn into the country in the first half of 2022, up from USD 3.1 bn in the same period a year earlier, according to the most recently available central bank data. This came on the back of a surge in tourist numbers, which rose more than 85% to 4.9 mn during the six-month period.

GOV’T IS SINGING THE SAME TUNE-

We’ll need to spend big to boost tourism: The country needs to invest some USD 30 bn into tourism to grow the sector by 25-30% annually between now and 2028, Tourism Minister Ahmed Issa told the Senate yesterday. Egypt wants to attract as many as 30 mn tourists to the country by 2028, Issa said last week, more than double the number that visited the country in the year before the pandemic.

More rooms, more affordable flights, better services: The government wants to see the private sector build “at least” 290k new hotel rooms, improve the quality of services and entertainment for tourists, and put on low-cost flights, Issa said, noting that some 95% of investments in the sector are led by private players. Arrivals will be limited to 14-15 mn tourists annually unless more money is sent to upping hotel capacity, flights, and marketing, he said. “The countries who attract 30-40 mn tourists per year usually offer low-cost air travel,” he said.

What gov’t is doing: “We as a government are working to attract more private investments to the tourism sector and coordinating with the Civil Aviation Ministry to double the number of low-cost flights to Egypt,” Issa said. The ministry is also working to make it easier to get a visa, wants to improve airport services, and is aiming to diversify our offer to include more medical and adventure tourism, Issa said.

The appetite is there: Nearly 300 mn people want to visit Egypt, including some 30 mn Chinese tourists, Issa said. Flights between Egypt and China resumed over the weekend after Beijing lifted yearslong covid restrictions, with EgyptAir expected to restart its flights to the country in March.

A step in the right direction: The sector needs to look beyond hotel capacity to adding flights and improving services in order to increase the average spend per tourist, as well as boost arrival numbers, Travco Holidays General Manager Moataz Sedky and Somabay CEO Ibrahim El Missiri told us in our recent CEO poll on FDI and exports.

REMEMBER- In addition to boosting guest numbers to 30 mn, the government also wants to more than triple annual tourism revenues over the next three years to USD 30 bn a year, up from almost USD 9 bn last year and USD 11-12 bn currently, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said in September. Look out for a new tourism strategy later this quarter for details on how those goals will be achieved.

More imports money from the ITFC: The government has signed a fresh USD 1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) to fund energy and basic commodities imports, according to a tweet by CNBC Arabia citing ITFC CEO Hani Sonbol. Sonbol yesterday met with the planning and oil ministers in Cairo to sign the agreement, finalizing the organization’s 2023 work plan in Egypt, according to a Planning Ministry statement. The story also got coverage in Reuters.

The lender has long helped finance our imports: The fresh finance comes under the ITFC’s 2018 credit agreement with Egypt, which it last year extended to a possible USD 6 bn from USD 3 bn and renewed for another five years, Planning Minister Hala El Said said in the statement. The agreement is meant to fund the purchase of basic goods and commodities, such as petroleum, wheat, and other subsidized food staples. Last year, the ITFC lent us USD 800 mn for petroleum and USD 700 mn for commodities imports, after extending us a “record” USD 2.3 bn in imports financing in 2021. The ITFC’s total financing portfolio with Egypt now stands at some USD 14.5 bn, El Said said.

Our energy + commodities bill has been on the rise: The government’s subsidy bills for fuel and bread have surged amid the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war after price inflation in global markets sent the cost of food and fuel imports soaring.

FROM IMPORTS TO EXPORTS- The ITFC yesterday launched its USD 350k local export academy in partnership with the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency (MSMEDA) and the Trade and Industry Ministry, according to the ITFC’s website. The academy is meant to “boost the capacities of Egyptian entrepreneurs and incorporate their products and services into the global supply chain,” the lender said. It was one of several export-oriented programs the ITFC inked with Egypt last summer, as the government aims to boost exports to USD 100 bn annually by 2027.

ValU is gearing up for its second securitization program: EFG Hermes’ buy-now-pay-later platform valU is studying a new EGP 5 bn securitization program which it hopes to start later this year, CEO Walid Hassouna told us.

The company has almost finished its first program: The consumer finance player has sold more than EGP 1.7 bn worth of securitized bonds in an EGP 2 bn program started in 2021. The company will take to market the remaining EGP 290 mn later this year, Hassouna said, without disclosing a timeframe.

A big year ahead: valU is looking to raise EGP 4.5 bn from securitized bond issuances this year, Hassouna said. The company wants to issue EGP 1.1 bn worth of securitized bonds during 1Q 2023, to be followed by three more issuances of around EGP 1.1 bn before the end of the year. Hassouna’s comments were originally reported by Al Shorouk.

Advisors: EFG Hermes will act as sole financial advisor, transaction manager, and arranger on the upcoming issuances.

2022 was a bumper year for the local securitization market: Companies raised EGP 45.4 bn from securitized bond issuances in 2022, almost three times the EGP 15.8 bn sold the year prior, according to data tracked by Enterprise. So far in 2023, almost EGP 1 bn worth of bonds have been sold.

Living and working in the UK and now here in the UAE has given me a valuable sense of global perspective. There’s the cultural and social diversity between Europe and the Middle East that most would expect, but I’ve also gained insight in my line of work: helping drive HSBC’s global progress to support a net-zero economy.

International perspectives about the Middle East are changing. It’s clear that the UAE, and the Middle East more broadly, has a critical role to play in the transition to net zero and keeping on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2050, or sooner. We are already seeing a rapid acceleration in momentum in the region: from clients working on transition plans; the massive investment into renewables, clean hydrogen, carbon capture or sustainable buildings and mobility; and the support for climate tech start-ups and the sustainability related upskilling taking place in businesses. It’s an interesting and rewarding time to be living and working here in the UAE, and the sense of responsibility about the scale of the climate challenge is shared across the region.

Following important agreements reached at COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh last year, where developed countries agreed for the first time to provide financial assistance to fellow nations affected by climate-related disasters, the momentum continues ahead of COP28 in November in the UAE. This month’s Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week provided a clear platform for the three challenges I believe we must collectively solve this year. We have to close gaps in ambition, implementation and finance.

First: closing the gap between where we are and where we need to be, ensuring we remain on track to hit the 1.5°C target. At HSBC, we’re aligning our policies to what experts say is required to meet this target, and we will not provide new finance for the specific purposes of new oil and gas fields, or related infrastructure.

Second: in 2023 there will need to be evidence that transformation within the regional and global economy is happening, and that multinational business is delivering climate solutions. As a bank, we are well advanced in ongoing dialogue with our clients to support and roll out their individual climate transition plans.

The third challenge is one that’s at the heart of HSBC’s climate mission — closing the gap in transition finance. A recent UN report estimated that USD 1 tn in external finance is needed per year in emerging and developing markets by 2030 (excluding China), which is estimated to be 10 to 20 times more than at present. Our leadership in global coalitions such as the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) is proposing radical solutions to restructure global finance — for instance via financed emissions target-setting — to deliver net zero.

This year will be a challenging one for all of us, but I predict we will see greater transparency in climate planning and how capital is shifting as well as an acceleration in renewable capacity investment and addressing emission reduction. At HSBC, this year we’ll be publishing financed emissions targets for five sectors, an updated deforestation policy, and our own bank-wide transition plan.

We look forward to working with the UAE Presidency for COP28 as it takes forward the global policy leadership on climate change.

This op-ed was written by Zoe Knight (LinkedIn), HSBC group head of the Centre of Sustainable Finance and head of climate change, Middle East, North Africa and Turkey. HSBC’s column in Enterprise appears every second Monday.

No hikes to train fares for the foreseeable: A Transport Ministry plan to hike the price of train tickets gradually over a four-year period has been put on hold by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Transport Minister Kamel El Wazir told Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa in an interview. (watch, runtime: 3:59.) El Wazir had proposed hikes to fares to help bridge an EGP 4 bn annual gap in the ministry’s budget but El Sisi called for the ministry to maximize its own efficiency instead of further burdening citizens, he said.

We’ll break even on the high-speed rail in 2044: El Wazir stated that the proceeds from the high-speed train tickets and advertising revenue will allow the government to break even on its USD 23 bn high-speed planned high-speed rail network by 2044 (watch, runtime: 4:15.)

Another Talgo train enters trial operations: The second of our six new Talgo passenger trains will start running on the Cairo-Luxor line this Friday, El Wazir also said (watch, runtime: 3:51.) The first of the six trains began trial operations on the Cairo-Alexandria line last year.

Wheat for RUB? The Bank of Russia’s decision to approve the EGP as a trade currency last week got more airtime, after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko was quoted by Al Masry Al Youm as telling Russian media that Moscow is considering allowing Egypt to pay for wheat imports in RUBs.

What else could we pay for in RUB? The government will have to reach agreements with Moscow as to which products and services imports could be paid for in RUB, former deputy managing director of Blom Bank, Tarek Metwally, told Kelma Akheera’s Lamees El Hadidi The move could also be a boost to tourism, allowing Russians to visit who otherwise wouldn't have come due to a lack of USDs caused by Western sanctions, he added. (watch, runtime: 3:30.)

It’s a very quiet morning for Egypt in the international press.

Thabets’ release continues to make headlines: The Financial Times and the Associated Press are taking note of the release from prison of Juhayna founder and former CEO Safwan Thabet and his son Seif earlier this week.

The chicken feet thing won’t die: Business Insider is the latest to examine the state of our economy by way of recent advice from officials suggesting people switch to cheaper poultry cuts, including chicken feet, as food prices soar.

AUTOMOTIVE-

GB Auto is now GB Corp: GB Auto Group has rebranded itself as GB Corp, the company said in a statement yesterday. “GB Corp aims to create one unified entity, where GB Corp’s subsidiaries — GB Auto, GB Capital, GB Logistics, GB Ventures, GB Academy and the Ghabbour Foundation for Development — will adopt the unified vision and values of the company,” the statement reads.

M&A-

Bedaya SME Fund could exit Al Shroouk Scan: Bedaya SME Fund is close to selling its 35% stake in Al Shroouk Scan and Lab in a transaction valued at EGP 24 mn, Al Mal reported, citing sources it says are in the know. A consortium comprising the medical lab’s founders is in negotiations with Bedaya to acquire its stake, which it acquired for EGP 8 mn in 2014, the sources are quoted as saying. Bedaya is managed by Al Ahly for Development and Investment and Cairo Financial Holding.

TELECOMS-

Mubasher to set up regional telecom investment fund: Mubasher Financial Services plans to establish the ‘Wasla’ fund in Bahrain to invest in telecoms infrastructure projects and the manufacture of fiber optic cables in MENA and Africa, Hapi Journal reports.

Energy + illegal migration top talks with Italy’s Tajani: Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani talked about upping cooperation on energy security and stemming illegal migration to Italy in a meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, according to an Ittihadiya statement. Tajani also met and then held a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (watch, runtime: 24:58), where regional issues including resolving the conflict in Libya were at the top of the agenda.

Best friends on energy: “I believe Egypt should become one of Italy's big partners in the Mediterranean. Italy aspires to be a big European energy hub and on this point there can be convergence with Egypt,” Tajani said at the presser with Shoukry. Egypt is trying to maximize its exports of natural gas as the EU looks for new energy suppliers to fill the gap left by the loss of Russian fossil fuels. Italy’s Eni — which holds a 50% stake in the Damietta LNG plant and produces around 60% of the country’s gas — has signed on to help boost production at home and max out LNG exports to Europe.

And on migration: Italy is “ready to have more legal migrants, including those coming from Egypt,” Tajani said, without giving any figures. More Egyptians arrived illegally in Italy in 2022 than people of any other nationality last year at some 20.5k people — more than twelvefold the figure in 2020, Reuters reports. Most embark from Libya.

Tajani also “asked for and received assurances for strong cooperation on the Regeni and Zaki cases” from El Sisi and Shoukry, he said in tweets (here and here), adding at the presser that Cairo “is ready to remove roadblocks” to resolve both cases. Italian postgraduate student Guilio Regeni was murdered in Egypt in 2016. Egyptian human rights advocate Patrick Zaki, who was a student at Bologna University, was released from prison in 2021 but still awaits trial on charges of spreading false news.

Mass boycott of Arab FMs for Tripoli-hosted Arab League meet: Only five of 22 Arab foreign ministers showed up to an Arab League meeting hosted by Libya’s Tripoli-based government, the Associated Press reports. Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was among the no-shows, having last year called for the UN to label the Tripoli-based government as “illegitimate.” Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who leads the Tripoli government, has refused to cede power since national elections meant to bridge the impasse between the country’s two rival administrations fell through at the end of 2021.