AM — Actis’ Sherif El Kholy on the export industries we should focus on right now, and further down the line

Good morning, folks. We’re only two days away from meeting with some of you at the Enterprise Climate X Forum at the Grand Egyptian Museum on Tuesday, 6 December. We kick things off with a networking and standing breakfast at 8am CLT, followed by panel discussions and live interviews on:

• What are green hydrogen and NWFE? Why do they matter to businesses, banks and investors?
• How are CEOs across global emerging markets dealing with (and being constrained by) climate change?
• What’s keeping bankers awake at night when it comes to climate finance?
• Meet the startup and VC in line to be Egypt’s first climate b’naires.

You can read the full agenda here.

** Have you confirmed your attendance? We’ll be sending you later today the QR code you’ll need to gain admission to the Grand Egyptian Museum, along with a Google Maps link and some other pointers — including a reminder that the event takes place under Chatham House Rules. Only confirmed invitees who can present their personal QR codes will be able to gain admission to the GEM on event day.

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WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

Competition Act up for a vote in the House: The House of Representatives is set to discuss and vote on draft amendments to the 2005 Competition Act when it reconvenes today. The House Economic Affairs Committee last week held two closed-door meetings on the amendments, which were attended by Egyptian Competition Authority head Mahmoud Momtaz and Financial Regulatory Authority chief Mohamed Farid.

Shoukry in the House: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will deliver an address at the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the outcomes of last month’s COP27 summit in Sharm.

Wildcat building law lands in the House: The House Housing Committee will begin discussing legislation today aimed at making it easier for owners of illegal buildings to go legit. The discussions come days after the Senate gave the bill a final approval last week after three days of debate.

The Egyptian Mercantile Exchange (EMX) will hold its third session today at 2pm, the Supply Ministry said last week following its second trading day. The new commodities exchange hosted a second sale of Russian wheat from state grain supplier GASC Wednesday. Bidding on the 10k tons of grain was twice oversubscribed at an offer price of EGP 9.75k per ton, according to the statement. The EMX kicked off at the start of last week with an offer by GASC of 12k tons of Russian wheat that was also nearly twice oversubscribed.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Key news triggers to keep an eye on this week:

• PMI: Data measuring activity in Egypt’s non-oil private sector will be released tomorrow, 5 December.
• Inflation: Inflation data for November will land on Thursday, 8 December.
• Foreign reserves figures for November should be out sometime this week.
• Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, 22 December to review interest rates.

Food Africa 2022 kicks off at Egypt International Exhibitions Center tomorrow and runs until Wednesday. More than 440 exhibitors from 28 countries will be at the food expo.

The Knowledge Hub Universities and Nova University Lisbon’s newly inaugurated Cairo campus will host the QS Reimagine Education awards and conference this Tuesday and Wednesday, 6-7 December. The hybrid event will also take place online and at the Wharton School campus in Pennsylvania, and offers awards of up to USD 50k for innovative projects in higher education.

This week in the House:

• MONDAY- Western Desert exploration agreements: The General Assembly will discuss three oil exploration agreements in the Western Desert signed with Energean and Croatia-based INA; Kuwait Energy Egypt; and Egyptian National Petroleum For Exploration and Development Company (Enpedco).
• MONDAY- FRA boss to discuss fintech regs: Financial Regulatory Authority Chairman Mohamed Farid will appear before the House Economic Affairs Committee to discuss the legislative impact of amendments to the Fintech Act and the Capital Market Law.
• TUESDAY- Samir in the hot seat: Trade and Industry Minister Ahmed Samir will face questions from MPs on issues facing manufacturers, including on licensing and exports, as well as what the ministry is doing to solve the crisis in the automotive industry.

WORLD CUP-

It’s day 15 of the World Cup and the second day of the knockouts (all times CLT):

• Mbappe v Lewandowski: Group D winners France play Group C runners-up Poland at 5pm.
• The Three Lions v The Lions of Teranga: Group B winners England will take on Group A runners-up and Afcon champions Senegal at 9pm.

The Netherlands + Argentina are the first to book their places in the quarter-finals: Louis van Gaal’s Dutch team eased past the US in the first of the tournament’s round of 16 games, beating them 3-1 at the Khalifa International Stadium. Argentina won 2-1 against Australia, with Lionel Messi scoring in his 1k career appearance to beat late legend Diego Maradona’s tournament total. The two teams will meet each other in the quarter-finals on Friday, 9 December.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

It’s a mixed bag in the foreign press this morning: Reuters and Bloomberg are leading with Russia’s rejection of the G7’s newly-announced oil price cap (more on this below); the founder of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, is continuing to try and save his reputation with a new round of interviews with the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal; and the New York Times is focusing on Tuesday’s Senate run-off vote in Georgia.

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MARKET WATCH-

Western countries agree to cap the price of Russian crude starting tomorrow: G7 countries, the EU, and Australia finally agreed to cap prices of Russian oil at USD 60 per barrel, according to a UK government statement, after intense discussions that saw EU countries struggle to agree on an appropriate price. An EU and UK ban on the import of Russian seaborne crude will go into effect simultaneously. The cap seeks to limit Moscow’s oil export revenues as part of ongoing sanctions amid the war in Ukraine.

How it works: Shippers and ins. and maritime service providers from these countries cannot legally transport Russian crude and products sold for more than USD 60, with a mechanism in place to keep the price cap at least 5% below average market prices. Details should be published today in the EU’s legal journal, Reuters reports.

Russia says nyet: Russia “will not accept” the set price cap, Russian news agency Tass reported Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying. “We are assessing the situation. Certain preparations for such a cap were made. We won’t accept the price cap and we will inform you how the work will be organized once the assessment is over,” Peskov said.

Russia has already kickstarted plan B: The Kremlin has assembled a “shadow fleet” of some 100 anonymous tankers to help circumvent the embargo and price cap, the Financial Times reports, citing shipping brokers and analysts.

MEANWHILE- How will OPEC+ respond today? The alliance of oil producers is unlikely to agree to further supply cuts at its meeting today, five OPEC+ sources told Reuters yesterday. Some analysts, meanwhile, aren’t convinced, telling CNBC that they expect the cartel to follow up last month’s shock move to tighten supply with further cuts.

*** It’s What’s Next day: We have our weekly deep-dive into what makes and shapes pre-listed companies and startups in Egypt, the UAE and KSA, touching on investment trends, future sector insights and growth journeys.

In today’s issue: It’s not quite a VC fund, and not quite a private equity firm, either: We break down what search funds are.

We recently had breakfast with 20 top CEOs to talk about why exports and FDI are key to our economy going forward. After reading our five-step recipe for turning Egypt into a global export hub and FDI magnet, participating CEOs agreed to answer two questions on the record for our latest CEO Poll.

We have already heard from:

• GSK’s Mohamed El Dababy, who says the starting point is tourism;
• McKinsey’s Jalil Bensouda, who points to business process outsourcing and customer relationship management;
• Somabay’s Ibrahim El Missiri, who believes tourism and aviation can be quick draws for FX;
• ALC Alieldean Weshahi & Partners’ Bahaa Alieldean, who thinks freezones are key;
• HSBC Egypt’s Todd Wilcox, who wants us to invest in EV manufacturing.

TODAY- Sherif El Kholy (LinkedIn) is a partner at Actis, the high-profile emerging-market private equity firm. Sherif has been with Actis since 2004, rising through the ranks from associate to become partner and head of Middle East and North Africa. He has led investments in bold-name companies including Edita, Rashidi El Mizan, Mo’men, Orascom Telecom and Lekela. He participated in our 2019 CEO Poll and, more recently, in our Climate CEO Poll — he and Actis have led the development of c. 15 GW of renewable energy across emerging markets.

ENTERPRISE- Which industry would you put on a focused short list — and why?

SEK- The focus in the short term should really be on service-oriented industries: It’s where quick wins can be achieved. The route to market and capex lead times are much shorter, so focusing on the export of services should be a short-term priority while we work in parallel to develop manufacturing-focused industries in the longer term.

One very clear, low-hanging fruit on the services side is to redefine what “tourism” means — we need to remodel our offering to be driven by quality and experience rather than value and price as they are today. Doing so will deliver very, very quick results.

The second segment that looks very attractive is medical tourism, where we need to establish ourselves as a very big hub catering to regional and continental demand for quality healthcare. Tunisia and Morocco have done well, but we could become _the_ player given the quality of our healthcare industry and our location. Anecdotally, the size of the market is USD 40-45 bn annually in Africa, demand-wise — so positioning ourselves as a very big center there could attract a lot of hard currency into the country very quickly. We have the people, we have the centers of excellence, we have the infrastructure.

And then the third one is data- and tech-related. There’s a great opportunity for us to position ourselves as a center for outsourced IT services, including through the delivery of large-scale regional data centers.

This is the short-term focus that will bring in hard currency.

In the longer term, manufacturing focused on everything in the “green economy” should be here in Egypt. COP27 and the green corridor initiative make it clear we should focus on feeder industries related to the green economy. We’re a natural manufacturing hub for international producers of EVs and large-scale battery storage. We should also be attractive to manufacturers of wind turbines — they’ve started to put production capacity elsewhere in the region, and we should attract some of that to the Suez Canal Economic Zone. We have a unique location and can deliver unique incentives.

So far, our industrial policy has focused on import substitution — it needs to be refocused on export promotion. We need to build exporting industries in the SCZone and other areas in which our location and incentives are globally competitive.

But to do this, we must develop a culture that prioritizes interfacing with investors in a way they understand. We need to talk to global industry leaders and see what it would take for them to set up here and not there.

Other countries have done it and done it well. There are clear success stories out there.

E- Why are exports and FDI the way forward?

SEK- There’s a qualitative and a quantitative element here. Quantitatively, exports are a big source of hard currency for the country — as is FDI. Qualitatively, prioritizing FDI will be good for everyone because it will drive an improvement in the investment climate here. Couple an FDI drive with the very bold reform decisions taken at the end of October, with the float of the EGP, and there is so much potential.

The conditions of the IMF package encourage us to take active steps to reform our economy. And we’ve done the right thing with the float of the EGP. Capitalizing on that means we’ll get the benefits of a floating currency and not just the inflationary impact.

Egypt will sign contracts to build 21 desalination plants next year, Sovereign Fund of Egypt CEO Ayman Soliman said at a Reuters conference last week. More than 200 developers from 35 countries have shown interest in bidding for the projects, Soliman said.

The projects will make up the first USD 3 bn phase of the government’s desalination program. These plants are expected to process a combined 3.3 mn cubic meters of water per day. The program will later expand this to 8.8 mn cbm/d at a total cost of USD 8 bn.

Pre-qualification to bid for the plants opened late last month and was set to close at the end of last week, two government sources and a top private-sector CEO told us earlier.

Remittances from Egyptians abroad are set to rise 2.5% this year, climbing to USD 32.3 bn from USD 31.5 bn in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest forecast (pdf). The Washington-based lender sees Egypt’s inflows benefiting from surging oil prices, which will increase transfers from Egyptian workers based in the Gulf.

This isn’t quite the rise the World Bank had expected earlier this year: In May, the lender had penciled in an 8% rise in remittances this year, but “dramatic changes” internationally as well as local developments have caused inflows to fall short of its forecast. Remittances have made only “weak advances” since 3Q 2021 on the back of surging inflation in advanced economies as well as the fiscal impact of food and fuel subsidies at home.

Egypt is still among the big five: Egypt is forecast to be the fifth-largest recipient of remittances this year. India is top with USD 100 bn while Mexico, China, and the Philippines round out the top four.

Inflows will rise by a slower pace in 2023, according to the Bank, which is forecasting 2% growth next year. It also sees remittances into MENA decelerating to 2% next year due to “persistent adverse trends in the global environment and deeper financial difficulties in the region,” according to the report.

Remittance inflows are of “critical importance” in helping Egypt offset its external and fiscal shortfalls, the Bank said. Remittances have become an increasingly important source of hard currency for Egypt due to the economic shocks caused by covid-19, the war in Ukraine, and tightening financial conditions. Inflows recorded a fresh high for the second year in a row in FY 2021-2022, climbing to USD 31.9 bn on rising oil prices boosting the transfers from the Gulf.

One solar project just bit the dust: A 50-MW solar plant in Aswan has been called off by the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) in a bid to reduce the government’s financing burdens, Bloomberg Asharq reported, citing three unnamed officials from the authority. The Kuwait-based Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development had agreed in 2017 to put up the bulk of the capital for the KWD 34.5 mn project, with the NREA covering just 25% of the project’s cost.

The problem? The NREA doesn’t want to take on any new debt. The authority is working to pay off debts to a number of creditors and doesn’t want to increase its financing burdens, one of the sources said.

It has been a good month for Egypt’s renewables sector: The cancellation comes a few weeks after the government secured some USD 10 bn in funding for renewable energy projects at COP27. Initial agreements worth USD 119 bn for green hydrogen and wind power projects were signed by the government with global players during the summit last month.

It was rather a mixed bag on talks shows yesterday, with the talking heads focusing on yesterday’s meeting between President El Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah, the return of BMWs to Egypt, and record gold prices.

Talks between President Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah got coverage by Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 6:53) and Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal (watch, runtime: 6:00), who talked to Jordanian political analyst Monther Howarat about the meeting (watch, runtime: 7:38). Howarat emphasized the timing of Abdullah’s visit, which came ahead of his tour to Algeria and Italy and El Sisi’s visit to the US later this month. The crisis in Palestine was one of the main topics on the agenda, and while neither government has provided details on the conversation, Howarat noted that the visit comes as far-right political parties are poised to enter the Israeli government.

Long queues to pre-order BMWs got the attention of Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 8:11), who talked to automotive expert Mahmoud Khairy about the coming reentry of the German cars into the Egyptian market. Khairy told the El Hekaya host that prices of the BMW brands “have embarrassed” other players in the market, with prices of some of the luxury brand’s vehicles close to those of overpriced non-luxury brands in the market. However, he warned that the majority of those standing in the queues overnight were actually traders looking to resell the cars at higher prices.

The latest on the National Dialogue: The National Dialogue’s board of trustees have finalized topics that will be discussed, senator and trustee Emad El Din Hussein told Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 12:41). Daily meetings will take place from Monday to decide who will participate in the dialogue’s sessions. They would be selected from nominations submitted by the country’s political parties, syndicates, and others. The meetings would also discuss the dialogue mechanism and logistics, including the number of attendees and others.

Also getting coverage:

• An unprecedented jump in gold prices got coverage from Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 5:59), with 21 carat gold closing at over EGP 1.6k for the first time ever.
• The A-Z of New Mansoura: Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi dedicated her entire show to covering the inauguration of the first phase of New Mansoura, highlighting the coastal city’s low- and middle-income housing, services, job opportunities and others (watch, runtime: 1:46:56).

There’s no single story dominating the conversation on Egypt this morning. Here are a selection of headlines worth noting:

• Dior goes Dune at the Pyramids: French luxury fashion house Dior launched its Fall collection against the backdrop of the Giza Pyramids. (GQ)
• Israel’s ties with Egypt and Jordan may be at risk as the far-right Noam party enters Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government. Party leader Avi Maoz recently attacked plans to build a monument honoring Egyptian soldiers, calling them enemy troops. (Al Monitor)
• Another archeological discovery, this time in Fayoum: An archeological mission has uncovered a Greco-Roman funerary building as well as a number of mummy portraits in Fayoum. (ABC News)
• A local campaigner says Egyptian doctors are pushing women to deliver their babies by C-section because the operation is quicker and more lucrative for hospitals than natural births. (BBC)
• Two foreign tourists were killed when their bus crashed into a lorry on the way to Abu Simbel from Aswan. Five others — including three tourists — were injured. (AP | The National)
• Swedish-Egyptian filmmaker Tarik Saleh talks about his film Cairo Conspiracy (FKA Boy from Heaven) which won the screenplay award at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. (Deadline)

AGRICULTURE-

Yearslong negotiations to export produce to Manila bear fruit: Egypt will start to export agricultural products to the Philippines after reaching an agreement with Manila following more than five years of negotiations, Agriculture Minister El Sayed El Quseir said Friday. Egyptian citrus fruits will be exported for the first time during the current season.

INFRASTRUCTURE-

New Mansoura, phase one: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Thursday inaugurated the first phase of New Mansoura City on the Mediterranean coast in Dakahlia governorate, Ittihadiya said in a statement. The new city has been in the works since 2017, when the cabinet first approved the project. New Mansoura is one of a number of smart city projects being built by the government, including the new administrative capital, New Alamein, El Gallala, and New Sphinx.

LEGISLATION-

Some MPs want the self-employed to be exempt from e-invoicing: Several MPs have called on the government to exempt self-employed professionals from having to submit e-invoices, suggesting that the move is out of step with the constitution. The lawmakers are demanding an urgent meeting with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait to discuss what they described as the “negative impact” of e-invoicing on the self-employed. The move comes in the wake of a protest by tens of lawyers in front of the Lawyers Syndicate against the mandatory registration on the e-invoicing system.

REMEMBER– The Tax Authority is requiring self-employed professionals, including doctors, engineers, lawyers and artists to register on the system by 15 December.

MANUFACTURING–

The biggest sock factory in MENA? Port Said Governorate signed an agreement with a Chinese investor to establish a sock factory with investments of USD 37 mn, Governor Adel Al Ghadban said in a statement. The factory will be the biggest of its kind in the region and generate some 1k job opportunities, he said.

RETAIL-

More from Circle K: Convenience store Circle K plans to invest EGP 200 mn to open 50 new branches in Egypt in 2023, Al Borsa reported, citing statements by the group’s franchise manager Amira Zakaria. Circle K currently has 130 branches nationwide, with around 65% of the branches being franchises, Zakaria said.

TRANSPORT-

The military is making electric buses for the BRT: The National Authority for Military Production will produce 100 electric buses for the Cairo Ring Road bus rapid transit (BRT) system under a EGP 680 mn contract, the Transport Ministry said yesterday. The BRT system, which is set to be operational in January, will provide an alternative means of transportation on the Ring Road and is aimed at reducing traffic on the congested freeway.

Sisi + King Abdullah discuss Palestine as Israel bombs Gaza: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II discussed the situation in Palestine during talks in Cairo on Saturday, according to Egyptian and Jordanian readouts. Neither presidencies disclosed details of the conversations.

Tensions are rising in Gaza + the West Bank: Israel bombed several military targets in the besieged Gaza Strip in the early hours of this morning after Palestinian militants launched a missile into Israel, the Associated Press reported, citing a statement by the Israeli army. The exchange comes amid mounting tension in the West Bank caused by constant Israeli raids.

When in Rome: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry attended the opening of the Rome Med forum hosted by the Italian government on Friday, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. Shoukry also led a session at the forum on Egypt’s foreign policy, touching on the loss and damage fund agreed at COP27, food and energy security issues, and Egyptian ambitions to become a regional energy hub.

Shoukry held bilateral talks with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Thursday, according to a separate statement. He also met with International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) President Alvaro Lario, where they reviewed the fund’s role in advancing our Nexus of Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) program, according to a third statement.

Egypt and Nigeria to work together on tech infrastructure: Communications Minister Amr Talaat inked a five-year MoU with his Nigerian counterpart Isa Ali Ibrahim on Friday to cooperate on all things CIT, including broadband connectivity, end-user devices, software development, institutional capacity building, and research and innovation. (Statement)

The end of zero covid? Some Chinese cities are starting to ease covid-19 restrictions despite cases remaining at near record highs, according to Reuters. Beijing authorities are shuttering many testing booths and Shenzhen will no longer require commuters to present negative test results to travel. The move came after protests erupted in some areas of the country last month against the country’s strict zero-covid policy.

Apple is drawing up plans to back out of China: Worker unrest at the world’s biggest iPhone factory in China is accelerating Apple’s plans to move some of its production out of the country, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter. The tech giant is reportedly asking suppliers to plan to assemble the world’s most valuable company’s products elsewhere in Asia, mainly in India and Vietnam, the sources said.

Also worth knowing this morning: Iran provides first official protest death toll: More than 200 people have been killed in anti-government protests in Iran since September, the country’s interior ministry said in a statement picked up by state media. This is lower than independent assessments which have pegged the death toll at up to 469.