Foreign investors are lapping up Egyptian treasuries

TL;DR

Foreign investors are lapping up our treasuries. (Economy)
Covid cases fall again + Sinovac’s jab gets WHO approval as IMF looks to plan to end pandemic. (Covid Watch)
Wadi Degla’s real estate arm plans to tap sukuk market next month. (Debt Watch)
Erdogan turns on the charm, tells us he loves us. (Diplomacy)
US to step up diplomatic efforts to find breakthrough on GERD. (What We’re Tracking Today)
Why are 600 mn Africans still without power? Weak investment in transmission infrastructure. (What We’re Tracking Today)
Facebook popularity in MENA tanks in the wake of the Hamas-Israel conflict. (What We’re Tracking Today)
How can Egypt best leverage investor appetite in its healthcare sector? The answer: PPPs. (Hardhat)
Planet Finance— Oil hits two-year high after OPEC+ agree to step up supply in July.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Good morning, nice people. It’s a brisk news morning, just enough to keep us all grooving after heavy newsflow yesterday afternoon.

Stories that broke yesterday afternoon and that you need to know about if you missed EnterprisePM:

No eurobond sale before the end of June. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait denied a CNBC Arabia report that the government is planning to sell USD 2-3 bn in eurobonds in the coming two weeks. The broadcaster has updated the story and now claims a sale could go ahead at the beginning of the next fiscal year.
Juhayna isn’t facing imminent delisting: The company is being moved today to the “D-list” of naughty companies thanks to a delay in the disclosure of its FY2020 financials, but delisting is still a long way off.
IDH actively looking for M&A targets outside Egypt: IDH is actively screening for targets that would allow it to expand into new African, Asian and Middle Eastern markets and plans to open 30-35 new branches in Egypt this year.

A (HOPEFUL) SIGN OF THE TIMES- The Tourism Ministry will launch a new three-year international tourism promotion campaign this fall in a bid to drum up post-covid business.

The rest of the world is having a slow news day: There’s not a whole lot going on around the world, turning the international front pages into a one-man show this morning. Biden’s Tulsa speech, Biden’s suspension of Arctic oil and gas exploration, and the Biden White House accusing Russia of launching a cyberattack on a meatpacking company are all getting different degrees of attention by the foreign press.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Tomorrow is PMI day: May’s purchasing managers’ index figures for Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be out tomorrow. The survey claims Egypt’s non-oil private sector continued to face uncertainty in April, with declines in demand, production and employment keeping activity in contraction for a fifth straight month.

The US’ de facto GERD envoy is back on the road in search of a solution: Washington’s Horn of Africa envoy Jeffrey Feltman is on a seven-day tour around the Gulf and Africa to discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Tensions are mounting as Ethiopia prepares to resume filling the dam next month — and as there are reports Ethiopia may be building as many as 100 smaller dams to boost agricultural output. The State Department said yesterday that Feltman will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and Qatar between 31 May and 6 June as part of efforts to break the deadlock in negotiations over the hydropower project, which threatens to deprive Egypt and Sudan of vital water supplies.

The US has so far refrained from trying to force an agreement: Following Feltman’s tour of the region last month, Washington gave public backing to the current African-Union-led process and said it had no plans to involve itself in mediating the dispute. Although it is continuing the Trump-era aid freeze on Ethiopia, the Biden White House has been careful to avoid the partisanship of the Trump administration, which was seen by Addis Ababa as openly defending Egypt’s interests.

Other key indicators to keep an eye out for in coming weeks:

Foreign reserves figures for May will be out early next week.
May inflation data will be released next week.
Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt will meet Thursday, 17 June to review rates.

MORNING MUST READS-

Power generation is all well and good, but how are you going to get it from A to B? This is a question the Financial Times suggests needs to be asked more regularly in Africa, a continent that remains woefully disconnected from the grid, with some 600 mn people still not having access to electricity. Investment tends to prioritize new power generation projects over installing robust transmission and distribution infrastructure, leading to an inefficient and poorly maintained grid that results in USD 5 bn of energy being lost in sub-Saharan Africa each year. “A lot more investment needs to go into systems that can actually handle the upsurge of power that is to come,” said Zainab Usman, director of Carnegie’s Africa Program, blaming a “fixation” on power generation.

El Face has (another) PR crisis on its hands: The popularity of Facebook in the Middle East has plummeted in the wake of last month’s conflict between Hamas and Israel as users accuse the social media giant of censoring pro-Palestinian posts. Polling data leaked to NBC News show that the company’s approval ratings in the region have slumped to historical lows since tensions escalated in the West Bank and Gaza, and internal documents have linked the fallout to a drop-off in ad sales.

Facebook was widely seen by pro-Palestinian and human rights activists as having silenced posts and hashtags condeming Israel’s actions in the West Bank and Gaza. Digital rights group 7amleh documented hundreds of removals on Facebook and Instagram in mid-May, suggesting that biased algorithms and Israeli manipulation was enabling a campaign of targeted censorship. This led to users banding together to downvote the Facebook app en masse, causing its rating to collapse to 2.2 on the App Store and 2.3 on Google Play. Facebook and Twitter blamed “glitches” and “errors” for the takedowns and deletions.

enterprise

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, urban development as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: Challenges to profitability and talent are hindering private healthcare players from setting up shop in governorates outside Cairo, Giza, and Alexandria, as we learned last week. Today, we discuss how PPP models can help funnel private investment in the healthcare sector beyond urban centers.

ECONOMY

COVID WATCH

Covid cases fall again + Sinovac’s jab gets WHO approval as IMF looks to plan to end pandemic

Covid cases are continuing to fall here at home: The Health Ministry reported 956 new covid-19 infections yesterday, down from 984 the day before. Egypt has now disclosed a total of 263,606 confirmed cases of covid-19. The ministry also reported 40 new deaths, bringing the country’s total death toll to 15,136.

The WHO has given emergency approval to the use of China’s Sinovac jab, potentially paving the way for doses to reach developing countries through the Gavi / Covax program, it said in a statement. The WHO said it recommended the jab for adults aged over 18, making it the second Chinese-produced shot to get its endorsement in less than a month following the May 7 approval of the Sinopharm jab.

Sinovac is one of two vaccines Egypt will manufacture, aiming to produce the first 3 mn doses as early as this month. The news comes following a promising study in a Brazilian town, which saw deaths, cases and hospitalizations plummet after 95% of its population was given the Sinovac jab.

No jab? No football: The Egyptian Football Association will not start its next season until all players have received, or have registered for, at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine, Egyptian football boss Ahmed Megahed said in an interview with ON Time Sports TV channel (watch, runtime: 13:23). The government aims to vaccinate half of Egypt’s population before the end of the year. The EFA hopes to kick off its next season in early October.

Momentum could be building behind the IMF’s USD 50 bn plan to end the pandemic once and for all: The World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have come out in support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) USD 50 bn plan to bring the pandemic to an end in all corners of the world. The three organizations joined the fund yesterday, calling on world leaders in a joint statement to stump up the money to fund an unprecedented global vaccination campaign.

The plan: The IMF thinks it is possible to fully vaccinate at least 40% of the world’s population by the end of this year, and the remaining 60% in the first half of 2022. A rapid end to the pandemic could add USD 9 tn to the global economy by the middle of the decade, it estimates. The plan would be funded by at least USD 35 bn of grants, USD 15 bn from national governments and low-cost lending from multilateral lenders, with advanced economies contributing the largest sums.

Warnings of a global K-shaped recovery: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva raised the prospect of the global economy bifurcating, with the economies of wealthy countries rebounding and vaccine-scarce developing economies remaining depressed. “We are deeply concerned because an increasingly two-track pandemic is causing a two-track economic recovery—with negative consequences for all countries,” she said.

Producing vaccines is one thing. Getting them to where they’re needed is another: Inefficient distribution and short vaccine shelf-lives are rendering thousands of doses useless, with many African nations disposing of shots that arrive to their countries too late to be administered, the Financial Times reports. Malawi last month publicly burnt some 20k expired jabs of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, while South Sudan elected to send 72k doses to Kenya under the Gavi sharing policy, rather than see them expire before they could be administered. While several manufacturers are aiming to extend the shelf-life restrictions of their vaccines, “the current expiry dates add real pressure to vaccination campaigns that can already be heavily challenged,” said Amanda Harvey-Dehaye, a task force leader at Médecins Sans Frontières. Most covid-19 vaccines have a shelf life of six months, though Sinopharm can last up to two years.

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DEBT WATCH

Wadi Degla’s real estate arm plans to tap sukuk market next month

Wadi Degla Developments is planning a sukuk issuance worth nearly EGP 2 bn that will be managed by Contact Financial (previously known as Sarwa Capital) and Banque Misr investment arm Misr Capital, Contact Financial CFO Ayman El Sawy tells us. The sale might go ahead in as little as one month but is still subject to regulatory approvals, market conditions, and rating and auditing processes, El Sawy said. Wadi Degla is planning to use proceeds from the sale of the sharia-compliant bonds, which will likely be mudaraba sukuk, to finance the launch of new phases in projects including residential developments Neopolis in New Cairo’s Mostakbal City and Blumar El Sokhna.

Advisors: ALC Alieldean Weshahi & Partners will act as legal counsel, alongside Contact and Misr Capital, which are currently in a “strategic alliance” to work together exclusively on sukuk issuances under a mandate from the government to encourage a more active debt market, El Sawy told us.

Contact and Misr Capital have five more sukuk issuances in the pipeline, four of which are for real estate developers, El Sawy said. The issuances will either take the form of ijara or musharaka sukuk, and are expected to go to market before the end of 3Q2021, he added.

Some have predicted a big year for sukuk: Some EGP 5.1 bn of the sharia-compliant securities were issued last year, leading to a number of bold forecasts for 2021. Several market experts have predicted that EGP 20-25 bn of sukuk could be issued this year, a fivefold increase on 2020.

The next seven months will need to be big to hit that mark, given 2021 hasn’t yet seen a single issuance. So far, only three companies have issued sukuk since the Financial Regulatory Authority put in place the regulatory framework in 2019: Talaat Moustafa Group in April 2020, Contact (back when it was called Sarwa) in November, and private education outfit Cira in December.

REMINDER- A sovereign sukuk could be coming soon: A law allowing Egypt to issue sovereign sukuk on local and international debt markets is also due to be put to a final House vote soon after getting committee-level approval last month.

Need a refresher on how sukuk work? We’ve got you covered.

DIPLOMACY

MOVES

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PLANET FINANCE

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OPEC+ oil producers have agreed to continue relaxing curbs on oil production in July as a global economic recovery boosts demand for crude in the US, China and Europe, the ministers of the group announced following a virtual meeting yesterday, Bloomberg reports. The loose alliance of producers is now expected to add another 841k bbl/d to the market next month.

Bullish demand forecast sees oil hit two-year high: Oil prices breached USD 70/bbl for the first time since 2019 on the OPEC’s bullish forecast for rest of the year, as well as a drop in global supply glut that was stockpiled during the pandemic, according to the Wall Street Journal. OPEC now sees demand rebounding strongly in 2H2021 and nearly reach pre-crisis levels before the year is out.

Concerns over inflation and an overheating market are starting to grow: After a year of battling against collapsing prices and plummeting demand, oil producers are now facing the opposite problem: the risk of a surge in demand causing a deficit in the market, causing prices to surge. Under the agreement negotiated last year to end the Saudi-Russia oil price war, producers are due to maintain production levels until April 2022, but pressure to increase supply will grow if demand continues its current trajectory.

Lebanon is headed off the cliff: That’s the only conclusion to take from this World Bank report, which warns that the economic crisis facing the country may be one of the three most serious faced by any country since the mid-19th century. “In the face of colossal challenges, continuous policy inaction and the absence of a fully functioning executive authority threaten already dire socio-economic conditions and a fragile social peace with no clear turning point in the horizon,” the bank writes.

The European Central Bank’s resolve to maintain ultra-easy monetary policy will be put to the test when it meets next week, as inflation begins to pick up, the Financial Times reports. Inflation in the eurozone surpassed the bank’s 2% target for the first time in more than two years last month, raising pressure on policymakers to begin winding down stimulus. But ECB president Christine Lagarde expects heightened inflation will be short-lived, and maintains the bank’s highly accommodative policy will be appropriate until at least next year, when inflation is expected to cool.

EGX30	10,240	-0.7% (YTD: -5.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 15.63	Sell 15.73
USD at CIB	Buy 15.63	Sell 15.73
Interest rates CBE	8.25% deposit	9.25% lending
Tadawul	10,597	+0.4% (YTD: +22.0%)
ADX	6,613	+0.8% (YTD: +31.1%)
DFM	2,837	+1.4% (YTD: +13.9%)
S&P 500	4,202	-0.1% (YTD: +11.9%)
FTSE 100	7,080	+0.8% (YTD: +9.6%)
Brent crude	USD 70.63	+1.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.10	+4.0%
Gold	USD 1,905.00	-%
BTC	USD 36,131	-1.5% (as of midnight)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.53 bn (14.9% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 5.6% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Financial Holding (+5.2%), Export Development Bank (+3.6%) and EFG Hermes (+0.9%).

In the red: Ibnsina Pharma (-6.3%), GB Auto (-2.9%) and Pioneers Holding (-2.6%).

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning, with Chinese equities falling and other Asian shares in the green. Futures suggest that European and US markets will rise at the opening bell opening later today.

AROUND THE WORLD

How developing PPP models in healthcare can help funnel private investment to outlying governorates: Last week, we dissected why Egypt saw heightened investment appetite in its healthcare sector over the last 10 years. We found that although investment appetite is high, a demand-supply gap persists due to fragmentation and uneven distribution of facilities — especially by geographic location, with most private hospitals located in Cairo and Alexandria.

Today, we analyze how implementing public-private partnerships could efficiently leverage that investment appetite and make sure all the necessary gaps are filled. Industry insiders we spoke with tell us that the model can be successfully adopted in Egypt to iron out some of the main pain points we identified last week — namely, a lack of talent and profitability in Egypt’s governorates. But while this model has been successfully implemented abroad, a number of hurdles remain before it can be brought to life here.

As with other physical infrastructure, healthcare could stand to benefit from PPPs: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are popular worldwide when it comes to healthcare. In Egypt, the government has land and large-scale hospitals that are not running efficiently, Neeraj Mishra, group CEO of Alameda Healthcare, explains. The model could revolve around giving part of these assets to the private sector to run, in exchange for a revenue-sharing agreement with the government that could include the private operator providing some subsidized treatment to patients, he says. This way, the government gets two things: a constant flow of revenue, as well as affordable, and subsidized healthcare for a certain number of people.

This model could help private sector hospitals attain a decent ROI, given that a provider’s initial investment is lower. If the government provides the private sector with land or buildings at no cost, the initial investment cost can drop by 60-65%, Mishra says. Thus, the expected ROI only hinges on the 40% that the private sector company injected, and patients can be charged accordingly. Though your cost will be slightly higher, you can still generate decent margins that will give you a decent ROI on the 40% of cost you invested, he explains.

PPP healthcare could help draw talent to the geographic areas where they are needed: If more hospital providers set foot in governorates, talent from medical schools will become more willing to relocate there, Mishra adds. If the model is implemented correctly, it can attract doctors to the places where the projects are taking place, Hassan Fikry, corporate strategy and investor relations director at Cleopatra Hospital Group (‎CHG), says.

But there’s no talent like local talent: That said, the most effective way of drawing talent is by tapping the local pool, he adds. Investment in the education of doctors in the governorates where they are needed will go a long way towards filling that gap, he notes.

Professional healthcare business managers and centers of excellence are essential to move the industry forward: With the sector’s business model becoming more complex, there is a growing need for professional healthcare business managers that understand the arena and know how to run a business at the same time — this is where we are still lagging behind, Fikry believes. Moreover, demand has been growing for specialties and technologies that require a large amount of initial investment, as well as multidisciplinary centers of excellence. But due to the high capex, supply has been dire, he says.

The World Bank Group said it first: The Universal Health Plan could be a catalyst for PPPs, a World Bank Group had suggested last year in its private sector report (pdf). Under the plan, the government will contract out healthcare services to private sector hospitals who must abide by a specified pricing. The partnership areas include hospital building, diagnostic services, specialist care, IT, and ins. claims administration. Under the plan, it is the Universal Health Ins. Agency’s role to liaise with private hospitals and clinics to provide care to Egyptians under the universal healthcare plan.

Step#1 — Actually develop a PPP framework: So far, the lack of a governing framework to facilitate PPPs in healthcare and a delay in payments to private sector services are major constraints affecting the sector’s competitiveness, the World Bank Group states. Additional hurdles include arbitrary and circumstantial payment mechanisms, and lack of a governance body that adequately represents the interests of the different subsectors. “If the policy reforms are designed correctly, the private sector could have incentives to innovate and develop facilities that can serve greater volumes of patients, provide better quality care, and lower costs,” it suggests.

Current regulations set restrictions that stifle PPPs in the sector: Furthermore, only licensed physicians are allowed to own outpatient clinics. This means that new healthcare providers can only operate after obtaining approvals from at least nine government agencies.

What is clear is that private sector healthcare wants this and is waiting on the government to push a PPP healthcare framework through. But with private sector investment in healthcare reaching EGP 9.3 bn alone in FY2018-2019 and growing, and with Egypt being a market that is primed to absorb healthcare services (what with its large population and prevalence of chronic diseases), we expected that the conversation of PPPs in healthcare is far from over.

Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

Railway funding from IBRD: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development will provide a USD 362.9 mn facility to develop and upgrade the country’s rail network.
More transport funding: US infrastructure giant Bechtel will reportedly arrange facilities worth a total of USD 2 bn for the Egyptian government to finance nearly half of Cairo’s sixth metro line.
New show coming to a place near you: Orascom Investment Holding (OIH) subsidiary Orascom Pyramids will invest EGP 200 mn in the early stage of the Giza sound and light show revamp, which is expected to cost EGP 350 mn when completed in a little over two years.
Spinneys to build more stores in Cairo: Spinneys Egypt is planning to invest some EGP 150 mn in three new retail locations — one each in 6 October, Heliopolis and New Cairo — in 2H20201.
Is manipulating the weather an answer to water scarcity? Ethiopia is turning to cloud seeding to help fill up its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but could weather modification also offer a solution to Egypt’s water scarcity woes?

CALENDAR

3-6 June (Thursday-Monday): Egypt is hosting the FIG World Challenge Cup in Artistic Gymnastics.

7 June (Monday): British Egyptian Business Association hosts an event featuring Oil Minister Tarek El Molla.

14 June (Monday): Egypt Green Economy Forum.

17 June (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

17-20 June (Thursday-Sunday): The International Exhibition of Materials and Technologies for Finishing and Construction (Turnkey Expo), Cairo International Conference Center.

20 June (Sunday): Ismailia Economic Court to hold hearing on Ever Given compensation case.

22-27 June (Tuesday-Sunday): The CIB PSA World Tour Finals for 2020-2021 will take place in Cairo.

24 June (Thursday): End of the 2020-2021 academic year (public schools).

26-29 June (Saturday-Tuesday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Cairo International Convention Center, Cairo, Egypt. The Big 5 Egypt Impact Awards will also be taking place at the event on 27 June.

30 June (Wednesday): The IMF will complete a second review of targets set under the USD 5.2 bn standby loan approved in June 2020 (proposed date).

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

30 June- 15 July: National Book Fair.

July + August: Thanaweya Amma exams take place.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

1 July (Thursday): Businesses importing goods at seaports will need to file shipping documents and cargo data digitally to the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system.

15 June (Saturday): EGX-listed will have to complete filing their financial disclosures for the period ended 31 March.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday).

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

2-4 August (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt is hosting the Africa Food Manufacturing exhibition at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

12-15 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Sahara Expo: the 33rd International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

14-16 February 2022 (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

1H2022: The World Economic Forum annual meeting, location TBD.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.