AM — Mohamed Farid is the new head of the FRA

Good morning, friends. We’re going to start this morning’s edition with a brief report from:

THE DEPT. OF GOOD NEWS- We have a new head of the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA). EGX boss Mohamed Farid has been appointed as acting chairman of the FRA for one year, the exchange announced yesterday. He succeeds Mohamed Omran, who stepped down after five years at the helm of the market regulator.

Why this matters: Farid is a business-friendly public servant who has shown a cool head and keen understanding of what the business community needs if it is going to invest. Whether selling foreign investors on Egyptian equities, streamlining regulation, introducing new instruments, or leading a drive to get more retail investors to participate in the market with long-term views, Farid has shown that he simply “gets it.” Appointed in August 2017 — he was Omran’s successor at the EGX, too — Farid has broad experience: He was vice-chairman of the EGX during the nasty period spanning July 2010 through October 2011, was a staffer in Mahmoud Mohieldin’s office during the golden era of the Ministry of Investment, was a consultant to the World Bank and taught at AUC and AAST. He also knows the stress of what it means to have to meet payroll every month: Farid founded and ran his own consultancy before returning to government service to lead the EGX.

Who’s going to run the EGX? Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly is expected to select a new head of the EGX to succeed Farid soon. The decision was published in the Official Gazette (pdf) yesterday.

** Need some distractions to get you through that horribly boring 11am meeting? We’ve got you covered:

• Is death reversible? Scientists have revived cells in dead pigs’ organs. The researchers had previously revived brain cells in dead pigs and have now done the same in more organs. (New York Times)
• AI is not sentient. Why do people say it is? Robots can’t think or feel, despite what the researchers who build them want to believe. (New York Times)
• CEOs ditch kinder approach as economy shows signs of chilling. As the US outlook worsens, corporate chiefs are bringing back blunt demands, performance reviews and the swag police. (Wall Street Journal)

FOOD FOR THOUGHT- Think inflation is bad here in Omm El Donia? Try 90%, the New York Times suggests, writing that “a tour through Argentina reveals that years of inflation can give rise to a truly bizarre economy.”

Near and dear to our hearts: The life of a person who wakes up really, really early.

“Extreme larks” get up naturally when some people have hardly gone to bed, the Atlantic writes. It’s nice to know we are not alone…

MARKET WATCH-

#1- The EGX extended its rally for a fourth day yesterday, building on the substantial gains on Thursday which saw the bourse have its best day since March. The benchmark EGX 30 gained another 0.8% during yesterday’s trading session to close at its highest level since the first week of June. It has now gained almost 17% since its recent low less than five weeks ago and is now down 15.3% year-to-date. Trading volumes were strong again yesterday, coming in at EGP 1.9 bn (or around 59% above the trailing 90-day average).

#2- Are oil prices finally starting to slip? Oil prices closed last week at their lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in February as recession fears build. Brent lost 11% during the week to close at USD 94.92 a barrel while US crude fell 8% to USD 89.01.

Don’t bet on it: Global supply remains tight and will likely get tighter this winter as the EU’s embargo on Russian seaborne oil comes into play on 5 December. Supply will come under further pressure if the G7 agrees to try and cap the price of Russian oil, which the group hopes to put into practice before the EU oil ban comes into effect. The price? Oil at USD 130 a barrel, according to Bank of America.

#3- More volatility in US equities in the cards as earnings estimates cut: Wall Street could be in a fresh spell of volatility as analysts cut corporate earnings expectations, according to the Wall Street Journal. The combination of falling 3Q earnings-per-share estimates and the rising valuations in recent weeks could be setting up the market for a fall, the piece argues.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Dominating the global front pages this morning: The US Senate passed a sweeping USD 430 bn climate, tax and health bill in a major victory for the Biden administration. The news comes after days of heated debate between Democratic and Republican lawmakers. The bill is being dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act; it aims to raise taxes on large, profitable companies, allocate hundreds of bns of USD on programs aimed at reducing carbon emissions, and hopes to reduce the federal deficit over time, in turn bringing down inflation, which has reached 40-year highs this year. The Senate passed the bill with a 51-50 party line vote that saw Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking ballot. The bill will now head to the House on Friday, where it is expected to be passed by the Democratic majority. (AP | Reuters | NYT | Washington Post | Bloomberg | FT | WSJ)

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

We have two more rounds of public consultations on the government’s state ownership policy coming up this week:

• Higher education players will voice their thoughts on the privatization strategy tomorrow, 9 August.
• Experts and think tanks will hold another round of talks on Thursday, 11 August.

Remember: The government holds workshops every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday to see how its plans will affect specific industries. You can find more details on the schedule of the meetings here.

Inflation data for July should land on Wednesday, 10 August.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Ghazl El Mahalla IPO: The retail portion of Ghazl El Mahalla’s mini-IPO will wrap next Sunday, 14 August.

MNHD shareholders have the final word on SODIC takeover bid: Madinet Nasr Housing and Development will hold a general assembly meeting on Tuesday, 16 August, to decide whether to allow SODIC to conduct due diligence ahead of a potential takeover.

Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt will meet to discuss interest rates next Thursday, 18 August.

National Dialogue: The board of trustees overseeing the National Dialogue will hold its next meeting on 27 August. On the agenda: Choosing the rapporteurs for all of the committees and subcommittees of the social, political and economic tracks, and preparing the agenda and topics of discussion for the dialogue.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

MORNING MUST READ-

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at what the printing and packaging industry had to say about the state ownership policy document, the biggest issues facing the industry today, and what stakeholders see as viable solutions for these hurdles moving forward.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.

In today’s issue: Previously, we’ve looked at the skills that private sector companies want to see in fresh graduates and heard from company representatives about how well they think local universities prepare fresh grads for the world of work. Today, we speak to representatives in a range of sectors about what they’d like to see higher education institutions do to prepare graduates to address labor market needs. Their answers span work that can be done within the universities, making work experience a mandatory part of degree programs, and amending some aspects of Egypt’s higher education framework.

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund could purchase United Bank from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) before the end of the year, according to Hapi Journal. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is close to wrapping up due diligence on the bank and the acquisition is expected to be finalized by December, the newspaper reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter.

Who’s advising? The PIF has reportedly appointed our friends at EFG Hermes as financial advisors and US law firm Akin Gump as legal counsel for the transaction, Hapi claims. CI Capital is reportedly acting as United Bank’s advisor.

Background: The PIF first announced its interest in acquiring the bank in May. The CBE owns 99.9% of United Bank, which it created in 2006 through the merger of smaller entities near the end of its well-regarded cleanup of the banking sector nearly two decades ago.

Part of a wave of new Saudi investment: The PIF’s play for UB comes amid a backdrop of an influx of investment from our friends in the Gulf, part of a raft of support measures to help shore up Egypt’s fiscal position amid global volatility triggered by the war in Ukraine. The fund has said it could invest USD 10 bn in a range of Egyptian sectors and last week established a company dedicated to managing its investments in Egypt. Separately, Saudi companies recently signed a series of agreements that will see them invest USD 7.7 bn in Egypt.

Pachin has another potential suitor: EGX-listed Paint and Chemical Industries (Pachin) has received a non-binding offer from Universal Building Materials and Chemicals (Sipes) to acquire up 100% of its shares, it said in a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX yesterday.

The offer: Sipes has offered to purchase at least 60% of the majority state-owned company for between EGP 17.50 and EGP 18.50 per share, valuing the company at EGP 420-444 mn, according to our math. Sipes’ offer is an 8-14% premium to the EGP 16.20 at which Pachin’s shares closed yesterday.

About Sipes: The company is a regional paint distributor, with plants in Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Egypt. Sipes produces home paint and industrial paint as well as wood coatings and automotive paints.

This is the second company to bid for Pachin in the past month: Pachin received an offer from Saybad Industrial Investment last month, which it rejected, saying that it undervalued the company. It’s unclear whether Saybad is prepared to up its offer.

Sipes improved on Saybad’s bid: Saybad priced Pachin’s shares at between EGP 16.00 and EGP 16.50, valuing the company at EGP 384-396 mn.

Part of the government’s privatization plans: The bids come as the state looks to reduce its involvement in or exit certain industries to make way for the private sector. Pachin is currently approximately 54% owned by state-owned companies and banks.

What’s next: Pachin’s board will meet to decide whether to allow Sipes to conduct due diligence.

ADVISORS- Catalyst Partners is acting as Pachin's financial advisor while Adsero-Raji Soliman & Associates is legal counsel. Sipes will settle on legal and financial advisors after Pachin’s board decides whether or not to allow Sipes to go ahead with the transaction.

Foreign reserves fall again in July: Foreign reserves slipped to USD 33.14 bn in July, down from USD 33.4 bn a month earlier, according to central bank figures released yesterday.

Foreign reserves have declined by almost 20% since March as the fallout from the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates force the central bank to intervene to cover portfolio outflows, finance imports and meet debt repayments. The market volatility led to USD 14.75 bn leaving the country during the first three months of the year.

Egypt will sign new agreements with suppliers of Ukrainian wheat to replace contracts it canceled last month, Ukrainian media reported yesterday. State grains buyer GASC terminated contracts for 240k tons of stranded Ukrainian wheat after they remained stuck in the country for months due to Russia’s blockade of the country’s ports.

Out with the old, in with the new: “The contract was concluded, but the Ukrainian side could not fulfill it in a timely manner due to the blockade of the ports,” Mykhailo Nepran, the first vice president of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, was quoted as telling a local TV channel. “It turned out that the agreement did not include a force majeure clause. Therefore, a completely civilized decision was made at the legislative level: to close the contract that cannot be fulfilled and open a new one, according to which the purchase will be made.”

The grain pact is making this possible: A Turkey- and UN-brokered agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine to resume grain exports through the Black Sea is starting to gain momentum, with another four ships departing the country yesterday. Kyiv hopes to have three to five vessels leaving the country every day within the next two weeks.

Egypt is a willing buyer: Egypt has reassured Ukraine’s ambassador to Egypt, Mykola Nahorny, that it understands Ukraine’s difficult situation and is ready to work together to arrange for future purchases, Nepran said.

More love from EBRD to NBK? The National Bank of Kuwait Egypt (NBK Egypt) could get another USD 10 mn senior unsecured loan from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for on-lending to youth-led MSMEs, according to the lender’s website.

What’s a senior loan? A senior bank loan is money lent to a business by a financial institution which is then repackaged and sold to other investors.

NBK Egypt is now in line for USD 50 mn in funding: The EBRD said last week that it is considering providing a USD 40 mn loan to the bank for on-lending to MSMEs.

This one’s for the youts: “The project will increase the availability of finance for youth-led businesses to improve their skill-sets, know-how and expand their business capabilities in the market,” the website reads. “The loan will support NBK in the development and refinement of products, services and/or delivery mechanisms that cater to the needs of young entrepreneurs.”

What’s next: EBRD could approve both loans on 7 September.

ALSO IN DEVELOPMENT FINANCE-

The EU is providing Egypt with a EUR 4 mn grant for the third phase of the EUR 145 mn Egyptian Pollution Abatement Program. (Statement)

Egypt’s role mediating the ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad yesterday dominated the airwaves last night, with coverage from Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 1:59), Salet El Tahrir (watch, runtime: 4:22), and Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 8:00 | 4:32). We have more details in this morning’s Diplomacy section, below.

The Palestinian Authority “welcomes the ceasefire” and is thankful for Egypt’s efforts to bring an end to the violence in Gaza, PA spokesperson Ibrahim Melhem said on Salet El Tahrir. “Cairo was persistent and patient in its efforts to secure a ceasefire, and it refused to give up,” Mahmoud Al Habbash, adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, told Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa.

Egypt played its traditional role as a mediator between Israel and Palestine, Arab League Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki told Moussa, emphasizing the importance of Arab nations’ support in addressing the occupation in Gaza.

Also on the airwaves last night:

• Egypt currently suffers from a 54 bn cubic meter water deficit, with our demand for 114 bn cubic meters of water representing nearly double our current total capacity of 60 bn cubic meters, Water Ministry spokesperson Mohamed Ghanem said. (Ala Mas’ouleety | watch, runtime: 5:39)
• President Abdel Fattah El Sisi directed the government to include green hydrogen in Egypt’s energy mix in a meeting with several cabinet members held to follow up on Egypt’s strategy for sustainable and renewable energy. (Ala Mas’ouleety | watch, runtime: 5:35)
• Tuition fees for 12 new non-profit universities the government plans to establish will be more than 50% subsidized by the government, Higher Education Minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar said. The minister didn’t disclose the fees. (Salet El Tahrir | watch, runtime: 3:01)

Dominating the conversation on Egypt in the international press this morning: Egyptian mediators have managed to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza. We have more in this morning’s Diplomacy section, below. (Associated Press | Reuters | AFP | Bloomberg | FT | WSJ | CNBC)

Also in the foreign press: No AC, no problem: An Egyptian architect is using traditional techniques to keep buildings cool without the need for air conditioning. (The National)

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• Orascom Development Holding plans to launch two new phases of its O West project in Sixth of October in the coming months. (Hapi Journal)
• EgyptAir will operate direct flights from Libya’s Tripoli to Sharm El Sheikh starting Tuesday, 9 August until 11 October. (Ahram Online)
• Fertilizer company EverGrow will launch operations of the EGP 2.5 bn third phase of its fertilizer complex in Sadat City next month. (Amwal El Ghad)

Egypt mediates truce between Israel + Gaza militants: Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have agreed to an Egypt-brokered ceasefire that started last night following three days of deadly violence that left 44 dead in Gaza, including two senior PIJ figures. The truce came into effect at 11.30pm and the two sides confirmed in statements to reporters that they had accepted the terms and thanked Egypt for its efforts to bring an end to the fighting, but warned that they would respond to any violations.

The ceasefire came after Egyptian officials spent hours making phone calls Sunday afternoon with both parties, security sources told state-owned Extra News. An Egyptian intelligence delegation was also reportedly in Israel yesterday in a push for a ceasefire.

Egypt had to make promises to PIJ: Egypt agreed to lobby Israel to release two PIJ members under the terms agreed for the ceasefire.

Cairo has been a crucial mediator between Israel and Palestine in recent years, successfully brokering a ceasefire to end 11 days of fighting between Israel and Hamas in May 2021.

The human toll: The fighting has left at least 44 Palestinians dead, including 15 children, and over 310 injured, Sky News Arabia reported. No Israeli casualties have been reported.

The ceasefire comes after an Israeli airstrike killed another PIJ figurehead: Israeli forces killed Khaled Mansour, who led the Islamic Jihad’s operations in the southern Gaza Strip, on Saturday, the Associated Press reports. This comes just a few days after Israel assassinated Tayseer Jabari, who led the group in the north of the strip, the act which sparked the new round of violence between the two sides.

Kenyans go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new president. Sitting vice-president William Ruto is in the lead, polls show, with what he calls a “hustler nation” message tuned to the hopes and frustrations of the nation’s youth. Ruto has been in office for some nine years and is taking on five-time presidential candidate Raila Odinga. The New York Times serves up a “why Kenya matters to the west” story (God help us), BBC looks at how Kenya’s top election official looks to deliver a corruption-free vote, while Kenya’s The Star reports that outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta savaged his former vice president, telling voters “I want to urge you that do not be cheated by Ruto’s eloquence. I have worked with him and has found that he is a person who is untrustworthy and of bad temper, he is not thus fit to lead this nation.” Need to get up to speed? The BBC has decent scene-setters here and here.

US-China relations reach new low in wake of Pelosi Taiwan visit: China has ended dialogue with the US on key issues in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile and controversial visit to Taiwan last week, the country’s Foreign Ministry said Friday. Beijing has canceled communications with the US military, ended climate talks with Washington and suspended cooperation over cross-border crime, it said.

More on deepening Turkey-Russia ties: Five Turkish banks are adopting Russia’s MIR payments system — the country’s answer to Mastercard and Visa — in the wake of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s talks with President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday, Turkey’s state-run Andalou Agency quoted Erdogan as saying on Saturday. Payment in RUB will provide financial support to both Turkey and Russia, the president said. Turkey has also agreed to pay for some Russian gas in RUB.