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Monday, 8 August 2022

Food prices see biggest monthly fall since October 2008

Global food prices fall most since 2008 in July: Food prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in July as the costs of grains and vegetable oil dropped, according to UN data released Friday. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) index fell 8.6% to 140.9 points during the month, marking its biggest monthly fall since October 2008.

Yes, but… Food prices remain incredibly high by historical standards. July’s reading was the sixth highest since the FAO index began in 1990 and is 13% higher than a year earlier in July 2021.

Still, things are heading in the right direction: Prices have now fallen almost 12% from the record high set in March, and with global grain supply chains anticipated to improve following last month’s export agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the trend is likely to continue in the coming months.

Also worth noting:

  • Should 75 bps be the Fed’s status quo going forward? Fed Governor Michelle Bowman thinks the central bank should stick to raising interest rates by 75 bps going forward until inflation starts to decline in a “consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” she said last week. Remember: It’s looking likely that at least one more large hike could be in the cards in September due to last week’s labor data. (Bloomberg)
  • Big Oil is showering shareholders with dividend payouts: Flush with liquidity from soaring oil prices, some oil and gas firms are paying out an entire year’s worth of dividends in a single day. ConocoPhillips and Canadian firm Tourmaline Oil are among the companies rewarding investors with special dividends, an industry development likened by one analyst to a “broken ATM spewing out cash.” (Bloomberg)

Up

EGX30

10,124

+0.8% (YTD: -15.3%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 19.07

Sell 19.18

None

USD at CIB

Buy 19.10

Sell 19.16

None

Interest rates CBE

11.25% deposit

12.25% lending

Down

Tadawul

12,217

-0.6% (YTD: +8.29%)

Up

ADX

9,916

+1.0% (YTD: +16.82%)

Down

DFM

3,317

-0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)

Down

S&P 500

4,145

-0.2% (YTD: -13.0%)

Down

FTSE 100

7,440

-0.1% (YTD: +0.8%)

Down

Euro Stoxx 50

3,725

-0.8% (YTD: -13.3%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 94.92

+0.9%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 8.06

-0.9%

Down

Gold

USD 1,791.20

-0.9%

Up

BTC

USD 23,286

+0.4% (YTD: -49.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.86 bn (56% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is down 15.3% YTD.

In the green: Ibnsina Pharma (+6.4%), Heliopolis Housing (+4.9%) and Credit Agricole Egypt (+4.2%).

In the red: e-Finance (-5%), Juhayna (-4.2%) and CIRA (-3.7%).

Selling pressure looks like it is shaping up to be the theme of the day. The Hang Seng, ASX, Shanghai, and Seoul’s Kospi are all in the red at dispatch time, while the Nikkei is just barely clinging to the green. Of major European and North American markets, futures suggest only the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX30 will be in the green at the opening bell.

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