AM — Growth in tourism industry to stall this year on back of war in Ukraine -Tourism Ministry

Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. We have a moderately heavy news day for you — where the biggest business story is unfolding in Washington, DC — and plenty of housekeeping to which to attend.

Let’s start with the housekeeping:

PSA #1- Brace yourselves for what could be a third day of dusty winds in Cairo and Alexandria as well as along coastal areas, the national weather service warns. Our favourite weather app sees the mercury slowly rising in the capital city from 28°C today to 33°C all next week.

PSA #2- We have so many holidays coming up that there are (if you squint) just five workdays left through Sunday, 8 May (six, if you count today).

• This coming Monday, 25 April, will be a national holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day and Sham El Nessim, the Madbouly cabinet announced in a statement yesterday.
• The entirety of the following week will be off: Cabinet also confirmed that the public sector will be on holiday from Saturday, 30 April, through Thursday, 5 May, in observance of Labor Day and Eid Al Fitr. Labor Day falls on Sunday, 1 May. Expect follow-on announcements for the private sector, banks and capital markets in the coming days.
• What’s next: Coptic Easter falls this year on Sunday, 24 April. It is typically a bank holiday, but not a national holiday (though it should be). We’re keeping our eyes open for an announcement from the Central Bank of Egypt and the EGX on that front.

PSA #3- Covid measures remain in place for Eid Al Fitr prayers: The Awqaf Ministry is once again limiting Eid Al Fitr prayers to “major” mosques and facilities at universities, according to a statement. All the usual social distancing and masking measures apply. One thing has changed: Women’s prayer halls will be open as they have been throughout this year’s holy month, in contrast to last year.

PSA #4- There are two days left to file your ESG report: EGX-listed companies and all non-bank financial services outfits regardless of listing status need to submit their first quarterly ESG questionnaire by this Wednesday, 20 April. The regulator is making it mandatory for companies to publicly disclose their performance on key environmental, social and governance metrics each year when they submit their annual financial statements, starting 2023. Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at InkankIR, our parent company, if you need some help.

SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? You’ll be breaking your fast at 6:25pm CLT this evening in the capital city, while fajr prayers are at 3:52am.

*** Looking for something to help you kill that last hour before iftar? May we suggest listening to the second and final part of our talk with industry leaders on what’s next for fintech (on our website or on Apple Podcasts — or reading our interview with the World Bank’s Mari Pangestu?

WATCH THIS SPACE- Saudi’s Shura Council nods to USD 10 bn investments here: KSA legislators have approved the agreement signed between Egypt and Saudi Arabia last month that would see Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF invest up to USD 10 bn in Egypt’s healthcare, education, agriculture and financial services sectors. The investment plan — which Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly in March said was pending “constitutional procedures” to move forward — came as part of Gulf efforts to help shore up our finances amid global fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. The state-owned Saudi Press Agency also covered the council’s decision.

FROM THE WB / IMF SPRING MEETINGS-

The World Bank will cut its global growth outlook for 2022 to 3.2% from 4.1% to reflect the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, WB President David Malpass told reporters yesterday. While Europe and Central Asia are unsurprisingly set to see the biggest impact, the international lender will also be cutting growth projections for other wealthy economies and “many” developing countries because of spiking food and energy prices, Reuters quoted Malpass as saying.

The WB will also be setting a new USD 170 bn “crisis financing target,” Malpass said. The funding is set to be disbursed starting this month until June next year, with USD 50 bn to be allocated in the next three months. It will be targeted at countries taking in significant numbers of Ukrainian refugees and those (like us) facing food supply issues. Emergency financing and debt relief for developing countries are key themes at this week’s spring meetings.

We’ll find out today what the IMF thinks is in store for the Egyptian and the global economy when it releases its World Economic Outlook. Expect the Fund to downgrade its growth projections for both Egypt and the world. In January the IMF forecast the Egyptian economy to grow at a 5.6% clip in FY 2021-2022 and penciled in 4.4% growth for the global economy. The IMF will publish the report here later today.

AMBER LIGHT- The Wall Street Journal is sounding a note of caution about the Fed’s ability to manage what could be around the corner for the US economy, warning that the US central bank has “never successfully fixed a problem like this” — namely tamping down inflation without creating significant unemployment. “During the past 80 years, the Fed has never lowered inflation as much as it is setting out to do now — by 4 percentage points — without causing recession,” the Journal notes. Read the full story here.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD this morning: Russia has begun a new offensive in eastern Ukraine and missiles have fallen on Lviv, about 60 km from Poland in the west, for the first time. Western military analysts see Russia’s movement in Donbas as “merely the preliminaries to a much larger assault.” The news leads the front pages everywhere, from the New York Times to Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- The Biden administration will no longer enforce masking on planes, trains and public transport after a US judge struck down a recent extension of the mandate. (Skift | Boston Globe)

Are we stuck in a Hot Tub Time Machine? “It took five weeks and three attempts. But around 7am on Sunday the Ever Forward, a 1,095-foot container ship operated by the same company whose vessel blocked the Suez Canal last year, was finally freed in the Chesapeake Bay.” (NYT Twitter)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Another chance for private firms to get in on PPP language school tender: The government has extended to 25 May its deadline for private companies to pre-register to participate in tenders in the second phase of its program to establish 1k language schools, according to a FinMin statement. A total of 24 language schools have been set up under the first phase of the program and the second phase targets the creation of 57 schools.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: “A code red for humanity.” That’s the single-line summary of the UN climate panel’s latest report on the global climate crisis. The last report in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) years-long cycle is also the final study to be released before COP 27 in Sharm El Sheikh, making it all the more important. We take a look at what the scientists say about how the environment is set to change in the coming years and decades, and how to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change in Egypt and beyond.

War in Ukraine is set to stall growth of our tourism revenues: “Expectations for Egyptian tourism in 2022 are not higher than last year,” Deputy Tourism Minister Ghada Shalaby told Bloomberg, while declining to provide estimates on arrivals or total tourism receipts. Russian and Ukrainian arrivals made up some 30-40% of all visitors to Egypt before the war broke out in late February, according to the business newswire and were fixtures of the Red Sea package tour trade. Their loss will challenge the post-pandemic recovery in our tourism industry.

But new and resumed int’l flight routes will help: The resumption of flights between Moscow and Cairo after a brief war-induced pause, as well as limited flights running between Russia and Red Sea resorts, “will help in regaining some of what we lost,” Shalaby said. New international routes to the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh could also give tourism revenues a boost, she added. The first direct flight between Tel Aviv and Sharm El Sheikh took off this week after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett struck and agreement in March.

We’re also reaching out to other European markets: Officials have either lined up or begun talks with Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Poland and Estonia on ways to drive inbound traffic, Shalaby said. The government’s new national tourism campaign #FollowTheSun (you can watch the full-length version of the ad here) is targeting high-value markets in Europe and the US and has driven a 102% increase in Google searches for vacations to Egypt since its mid-March launch. Egypt has also widened the number of people eligible to obtain a visa on arrival or a pre-arrival electronic visa as it looks to support the tourism sector.

AND we’re looking further afield to plug the Black-Sea-sized gap: Egypt hopes to attract tourists from little-tapped markets in Latin America — including Brazil — and Asia in the long term, Shalaby said. The state is also looking to draw in tourists from India, Pakistan, Morocco, Algeria, and Gulf states including Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, she added.

PLUS- GEM update: The EGP 20 bn Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) is set to launch in the fourth quarter of this year, with the opening to be announced six months prior, Shalaby said. We had previously been told to expect the GEM’s launch sometime in H2.

REMEMBER- Tourism receipts (alongside Suez Canal tolls and remittances from Egyptian expats) are a crucial source of hard currency for Egypt. The sector accounted for almost 9% of GDP prior to the pandemic.

The government has seized goods and equipment from bakeries it says engaged in price gouging, with a cabinet statement saying the Interior Ministry has logged more than 14k cases.

The details: The government has seized flour, bread, smart cards, and tills from bakeries that sold unsubsidized bread at prices higher than those set by cabinet last month — or who otherwise violated regulations on bread standards and bakery operations (like taking more subsidized wheat than they were eligible for, or failing to advertise their prices and opening hours). Bakeries selling above price caps face fines between EGP 100k and EGP 5 mn.

Bakers aren’t the only ones under the microscope: The state has also seized foodstuffs, building materials, butane cylinders, car engine oils, medical supplies, cosmetics and other products from traders who tried to hold back stock or sell at a premium to fair market prices. The ministry statement cites some 6.8k cases since cabinet introduced controls in early March to tamp down on rising prices amid soaring global commodities prices.

The CPA is also on the case: The Consumer Protection Agency has filed over 3k reports since 7 March detailing cases in which it claims retailers failed to post their prices, issue invoices, or account for the origin of their goods, or who sold goods at inflated prices, according to the statement.

Key commodities remain available and at reasonable prices, the Interior Ministry said. Meanwhile, the Agriculture Ministry said the recent spike in the price of tomatoes (which we can anecdotally confirm) has stabilized after it upped supply to the local market.

MEANWHILE– The Agriculture Ministry is working with the national poultry federation to introduce contract farming for corn, the statement read, without providing further details on what that might look like. The state hopes the total cultivated area for corn will reach 3 mn feddans this year. The move is part of a bid to reduce farmers’ reliance on imported feed.

Global corn prices approached a decade-high as they passed USD 8 / bushel yesterday, on the back of supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the ongoing war on Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

India to the rescue on wheat imports?

India hopes to export 3 mn tonnes of wheat to Egypt this year, the head of the country’s agricultural exports body told Times of India after the Madbouly government earlier this week added the country to our list of wheat suppliers. That would represent around a quarter or more of our annual imports. We’re sure you don’t need reminding that before the war, Russia and Ukraine provided more than 80% of our imported wheat — spurring the government to diversify supply once the conflict cut off Ukrainian supply and sent market prices soaring.

India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer after China and has become a key supplier to countries hit by the fallout from the Ukraine war. The country could potentially ship 12 mn tons in 2022-2023, up from 8.5 mn tons last year, helping to ease the pressure on global supply and bring down food prices that have shot to record highs.

Renewable energy player Infinity has opened seven new electric vehicle (EV) charging stations in the Nile Delta, marking its debut in the region, the company said yesterday in a statement (pdf). Infinity now has a total of 20 charging points in Shebin El Kom, Mansoura, and Damietta, the company said, adding that it plans to expand further in the Delta region.

300+ and counting: The launch of the new stations expands the company’s EV charging network to some 90 stations with more than 300 charging points in 10 governorates, including along roads connecting Cairo with Alexandria, Hurghada, Ismailia, Ain Sokhna, and other major cities.

Looking ahead: The new stations are part of a wider government plan to establish a nationwide charging network. Infinity is leading the project and will eventually set up 6k vehicle charging points at 3k stations across the country.

Infinity is bidding to manage the government’s new EV charging company: Infinity is among several firms competing to manage the EV charging firm that will be established by the government. The selected company will receive a 25% stake in the firm and will be locked in with a medium-term contract for its services, in exchange for a portion of the company’s net income. The company will set up 3k charging stations within 18 months around the country including in Greater Cairo, Alexandria and Sharm El Sheikh. The Public Enterprises Ministry is currently examining the offers after bidding closed in March.

Sri Lankan conglomerate LOLC Group has acquired 100% of First Microfinance in a transaction worth EGP 80.2 mn, First Microfinance CEO and Managing Director Ahmed Kamal El Din told Enterprise, confirming a report from Al Mal. The acquisition marks LOLC Group’s entry into Egypt and will see the firm introduce new services — including micro ins, micro leasing, and consumer finance — starting 2023, he told us.

LOLC plans to grow First Microfinance’s loan book: It is aiming to increase the microlender’s outstanding portfolio to EGP 1.4 bn from a current EGP 190 mn over the next three years, Kamal El Din told us. It also wants to expand the company’s branch count here by more than 10x to reach 100 over the next two years, he said. First Microfinance will retain its name, he added.

Who’s who:

• First Microfinance is a microlender established in 2005 by nonprofit Aga Khan Development Network’s microfinance agency. It operates nine branches across Egypt, with a majority of its clients residing in rural areas. The company is focused on development lending, with 50% of its portfolio allocated to livestock and fishing loans. SME finance makes up another 15% of its portfolio.
• LOLC Group is a Sri Lankan conglomerate listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange. It owns stakes in financial services companies in Africa and Asia, and was the third-largest listed company in Sri Lanka by revenue in 2021.

The acquisition was made via three of LOLC’s subsidiaries: LOLC Finance, Commercial Leasing & Finance, and LOLC Mauritius Holding, Kamal El Din said.

Advisers: Our friends at EFG Hermes advised on the transaction.

The Cairo Angels Syndicate Fund has made an investment in Gulf family entertainment marketplace QiDZ, the VC fund announced in a statement (pdf) yesterday. A representative from the fund declined to disclose how much was invested when we asked, telling us only that it amounted to “six figures” while declining to specify the currency in question.

About the company: The QiDZ app allows parents to search for and book kid-friendly activities and restaurants. Founded by five moms in Dubai, the platform initially launched in the UAE before expanding to Saudi Arabia.

Where the money’s going: The investment will help QiDZ expand into new markets in the region, improve the platform’s tech infrastructure, and increase staff count.

Next stop Egypt? The company is planning to enter Egypt at the end of 2022 or in early 2023, the fund told us. It is also exploring other markets in the GCC.

Egytrans has appointed Gamal Moharam (LinkedIn) as its new chairman, the transport and logistics company announced in a statement (pdf). He replaces Abir Leheta (LinkedIn), who will continue to serve as the company’s CEO. Moharam is currently chairman of MGM Financial and Banking consultants, and the Egyptian Company for Investment Fund Management. Prior to that, he served as the chairman and CEO of the Egyptian Commercial Bank (ECB) and Piraeus Bank. Moharam presided over AmCham Egypt from 2009 to 2013.

Egytrans has also appointed two new board members: CIB Chief Operating Officer Mohamed Sultan (LinkedIn) and Nehad Abouelfadl, who has more than forty-five years of experience in the field of marine services and cargo transportation, according to the statement.

The private sector will soon account for 75-80% of national projects and investment, Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa claimed last night (watch, runtime: 4:25), praising state efforts to increase the role of the private sector in national projects and improve the investment climate generally.

MEANWHILE- The Prosecutor General’s Office has ruled there was no criminal involvement in the death of economics researcher Ayman Hadhoud, saying that he died of chronic heart disease. Hadhoud died in early March at Abbasiya Mental Health Hospital after reportedly being detained by government agents a month earlier. One of Hadhoud’s brothers had said that he was under stress due to financial pressure, Al Masry Al Youm Deputy Editor-in-Chief Yousry El Badri told El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 4:07). Adib also gave some airtime to the reduction of TikTok influencer Haneen Hossam’s prison sentence to three years from ten years (watch, runtime: 3:15).

Human rights are once again leading the conversation on Egypt in the international press this morning. France24 picked up on the reduction of TikTok influencer Haneen Hossam’s prison sentence to three years from ten years, after she was convicted of human trafficking. Meanwhile, a number of local and international rights organizations have released a joint statement on the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s 2022-2027 Egypt country strategy, which they say is an improvement on the lender’s last strategy in terms of addressing rights issues — but, they said, still doesn’t go far enough.

ALSO- Last month’s Israel-Arab summit in the Negev shows how Israel is “mapping out a new system of states that links Greece with Egypt and onward to the Gulf and India,” says Jerusalem-based political analyst Seth J. Frantzman. (The Hill)

Leading industry figures are still pushing back on the CBE’s requirement that importers open L/Cs: Legislators and industry reps are continuing to voice concern over the central bank’s recent move to require importers to get letters of credit (L/Cs) for their purchases instead of the common practice of documentary collection, Al Borsa reports.

Full-court lobbying press in the works? House of Representatives Member Mohamed Gebril has asked to brief Prime Minister Moustafa Madouly and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait about revising the rules. Amr Fattouh, a member of the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association’s industry committee, called for the system to be scrapped for raw materials, agricultural, and industrial imports amid the war-induced supply turmoil. And Samir Aref, head of the Tenth of Ramadan Investors Association and a board member of the Egyptian Federation of Investors Associations, said the federation would soon meet with the CBE to discuss the repercussions of the new system and propose ways to restructure it.

IN OTHER IMPORT NEWS- Car companies want more time to comply with new import requirements. The Automotive Division of the Cairo Chamber of Commerce will request a one-year grace period for car companies to comply with the Trade Ministry’s recently-updated import regulations (pdf) for passenger cars, which include safety and maintenance requirements. (Statement, pdf)

OTHER THINGS we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• EgyptAir resumed flights yesterday to Benghazi after an eight-year suspension, and is now operating a direct flight to the eastern Libyan city every day. (Statement)
• Industrial property developer CPC has opened its EGP 4 bn Sadat City industrial complex, which will house companies in the building materials, chemicals, food, pharma, textiles, leather, timber, engineering, and electronics industries. (Zawya)
• An Egyptian accountant working on the Ramadan mosalsal Betloo’ El Rouh has reportedly been kidnapped while filming in Lebanon. (Tweet)

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met with King Felipe VI of Spain in Madrid yesterday, according to a statement. The two discussed upping Spanish companies’ involvement in development projects and green transformation efforts ahead of COP 27. They also touched on unspecified regional and international issues.

MEANWHILE- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi spoke with King Abdullah II of Jordan, according to a statement.