Non-oil business activity contracts again in August

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Can we start by saying how grateful we are that public schools are not yet back in session, meaning Cairo traffic is not at its worst these days? We expect that to change in a little over two weeks, though: Schools are expected to open their doors again on 21 September.

We’re also enjoying the early September sweet spot during which the news cycle is starting to pick up again following a sleepy August, but aren’t quite at the point of being bombarded with legislative news from the House of Representatives, which will reconvene by the end of the first week of October.

Other key data points to keep your eye on in the coming days:

• Foreign reserves: The Central Bank of Egypt is due to release Egypt’s net foreign reserves figures for August this week. Reserves rose slightly to USD 44.91 bn in July.
• Inflation: Monthly inflation figures for August at due out next week. Inflation fell unexpectedly to a four-year low of 8.7% in July.

Conferences and gatherings:

• The Japan Arab Economic Forum is coming to Cairo on 9 September at the Nile Ritz Carlton.
• The Euromoney Egypt Conference gets underway on 9 September.
• The Sahara agricultural expo starts on 9 September at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.
• The E-Commerce Summit will take place at the Nile Ritz Carlton on 17 September.
• The Egyptian Private Equity Association will hold its venture capital event on 18 September.

The PMI results are in — and we are back in contraction territory. Non-oil business activity fell below the expansion mark in August after expanding the month prior. We have chapter and verse in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

Ours was not the only PMI reading to dip in August: The US recorded the lowest PMI reading last month “since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009,” according to IHS Markit. The decline came as concerns over the US-China trade war begins to weigh on business confidence, and businesses are pointing a finger of blame at slowing global growth for below-average orders. “Output and order book indices are both among the lowest seen over the past ten years, indicating that manufacturing is likely to have again acted as a significant drag on the economy in the third quarter, dampening GDP growth.”

Global economic uncertainty and poor equities prospects are fueling a trend for high-net worth individuals to hoard their cash, the Financial Times reports. A UBS quarterly survey showed that a third of investors believe the US-China trade dispute could last a year or longer, with 37% believing that holding onto cash was the best way to safeguard themselves. This is prompting an increased number of frustrated wealth managers to pass on negative interest rates to clients with high cash balances, and to lament the lack of money-making prospects.

Investors are ignoring declining oil prices and flocking to the GCC’s USD bonds, Bloomberg reported. Bonds from all six GCC nations included in a Bloomberg Barclays index gained in August, led by notes from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mohammed Elmi, a London-based money manager at Federated Investors UK, described it as a “flight-to-quality trade within emerging markets.” The bonds returned 3.5% in August despite a 7.3% fall in crude prices.

WeWork prospectus provides little clarity on how it will achieve its grand IPO ambitions: Investors are flipping through communal workspace WeWork’s 383-page initial public offering prospectus, struggling to find a justification for the loss-making company’s USD 3.5 bn target when it goes public this month, says the Financial Times (paywall). “One would expect the prospectus to explain how revenues might one day outweigh expenses, but trouble begins right at the top of the first page.”

Paint-by-numbers business management doesn’t exist: Managing a company involves a constant juggling of trade-offs based on good judgment, the Economist says, taking a stand against the management self-help books so popular in airport bookshops. Despite the claims made by proponents of the fashionable “upscaling,” “blitzscaling,” and “agile” management formulas, there is no one-size-fits-all approach and managers must be flexible enough to make strategic changes.

What might our daily lives look like in 50 years? A recent Samsung report has us living in subterranean skyscrapers, zooming around in autonomous flying cars, developing superhuman abilities, and taking holidays in space. The FT’s description of fun but unfeasible sounds about right.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meeting with IMF managing director nominee Kristalina Georgieva was the main topic on an otherwise bland night on the airwaves, with Masaa DMC and Hona Al Asema among those taking note (watch, runtime: 1:44 and runtime: 2:44). We have the full story in Diplomacy + Foreign Trade, below.

Gov’t taking important steps to promote business, says FEI division co-head: The government should continue to support private sector growth as it has done since 2016, Kamal El Dessouki, deputy head of the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ (FEI) building materials industries division, told Hona Al Asema’s Lama Gebril in an interview (watch, runtime: 2:32). Authorities have made “significant progress” to support businesses, whether through large national projects or support to SMEs, El Dessouki said.

Tut’s record success in Paris: The exhibit of ancient Egyptian King Tutankhamun’s artifacts at Paris was hailed as among one of the most visited in the French capital’s history of cultural exhibitions, Yahduth Fi Misr’s Sherif Amer was proud to report (watch, runtime: 2:07). We have the story in On Your Way Out, below.

Non-oil business activity shrinks again in August: Falling output caused activity in Egypt’s non-oil private sector to contract in August after a month of expansion in July, according to the Markit/Emirates NBD purchasing managers’ index (PMI) (pdf). The PMI gauge fell to 49.4 in August from 50.3 in July, indicating a slight slowdown in the sector. This means that private sector activity has grown in just two months over the past year. A reading above 50.0 indicates that activity is expanding, while a reading below means it is contracting.

Blame weaker domestic demand: “The decline was due to a drop in sales which, whilst down for the third time in four months, was the weakest fall seen in this period,” David Owen, economist at IHS Markit, said. Export orders rose for the second consecutive month in August, indicating that the slowdown in sales was caused by weaker domestic demand.

Subsidy cuts cause “mild” rise in input costs: Businesses experienced higher input costs last month, as the government’s latest round of fuel subsidy cuts pushed up fuel prices by 16-30%. This caused output prices to rise at the fastest rate in a year, and prompted businesses to stockpile more inputs. Despite this, Owen described the price inflation as “mild” and said that it would “soon” ease.

Business sentiment at 18-month high: Business optimism over future growth prospects hit its highest level since February 2018, with a majority of respondents expecting growth over the coming 12 months.

Egypt’s reform program is nearly over as FY2018-2019 results show fiscal improvements -Maait: Egypt is set to complete its economic reform program soon, and the country’s improved macroeconomic indicators and better-than-expected fiscal performance in FY2018-2019 confirm that the reforms are on the right track, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said yesterday at a gathering organized by the Canadian-Egyptian Business Council (CEBC). The ministry is eyeing a primary budget surplus in FY2019-2020 of EGP 124 bn, the minister said. Previous Finance Ministry figures had indicated that the government’s budget surplus target for the current fiscal year was set at EGP 149 bn. Maait confirmed that the state achieved a primary budget surplus of EGP 104 bn, or 2% of GDP, in FY2018-2019, the proceeds of which will be used to pay off Egypt’s debts. Reuters also had the story.

Two more years until the average citizen feels positive impact of reforms: Maait said that Egypt will soon complete its phase of economic reform, the positive results of which will trickle down to citizens in two years’ time. The impact will be most significant in public wages, as well as education and health services, the minister said. The government is hoping to triple budget allocations for health and education by 2022, which will be achievable once the state’s debt burden has been reduced, according to the minister.

The government is planning to bring Egypt’s average debt maturity to five years within two years’ time, up from an average of four years currently, Maait said, according to the local press. The ministry began in March implementing its comprehensive debt reduction strategy, which initially aimed to reduce debt to 80% of GDP by 2022, but was amended last month to set a more ambitious target of bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down to 77.5% by the end of FY2021-2022. The strategy relies largely on a gradual shift toward longer-term debt and diversifying its debt instruments.

Tax policy stability is the order of the day: The government is not looking to make changes to its tax policy or rates, and is trying to ensure the state’s overall tax framework supports the improvement of the country’s business climate, Maait said at the gathering, according to Al Mal. He noted that taxes comprise around 14% of the state’s annual income.

The government will be able to repay EGP 1.336 tn owed to pensioners within seven years, and is planning to pay EGP 160.5 bn to pension funds during the current fiscal year, with that figure set to increase to EGP 170 bn, EGP 192 bn, EGP 213 bn, and EGP 230 bn over the coming four fiscal years, the minister said. Maait had met yesterday with Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Wali to discuss the process of disbursing pension payments, according to Al Mal.

Floating customs exchange rate adds to car manufacturers’ concerns: The government’s recent move to float the customs exchange rate presents additional obstacles for local car assemblers and could lead to more price increases in an already troubled market, Egyptian Automobile Manufacturers Association (EAMA) spokesman Khaled Saad told Al Mal. No distinction has been made on the customs treatment for imported components and fully-assembled cars, which could raise input costs and force local assemblers to raise prices at a time when they are struggling to compete with no-customs imports, Saad said. This could discourage investments in the sector, as well as hamper efforts to persuade international companies to assemble cars in Egypt.

Background: The Finance Ministry decided earlier this week to scrap the monthly customs exchange rate introduced in 2017, and revert to setting the rate on a daily basis according to FX rates announced by the central bank. Analysts warned yesterday that the move could drive inflation up in the coming months if the EGP falls against the greenback. The Madbouly Cabinet in July approved a package of incentives for auto manufacturers to stimulate domestic auto manufacturing and assembly. The customs breaks would be split into three tiers according to the percentage of local content used.

The automotive industry is already struggling with low sales: Egypt’s car sales dropped 6.5% y-o-y to about 90k vehicles in the first seven months of 2019, compared to 96.3k vehicles a year earlier, Al Mal reported, citing a report from Automotive Marketing Information Council. The automotive sector has slumped this year following a recovery in 2018, with car sales down across the board on a yearly basis. Sales of passenger cars plunged 10% in 7M 2019, while sales of locally assembled cars sales fell 9.3% and imported car sales fell 3.8%.

IPO WATCH- e-Finance roadshow to kick off before Christmas: Advisors on the planned initial public offering of state-owned payments platform e-Finance are planning to kick off a roadshow before Christmas to drum up investor interest and brief them on the company’s business and management, sources close to the matter said. The “introductory” roadshow, which will be led by investment banks Pharos Holding and Renaissance Capital, will cover markets in European and Arab countries. The purpose is not to specify a share price target or set a ratio for the private and public components of the offering. The IPO of e-Finance is part of the second wave of the state privatization program, which consists only of IPOs. Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik told us last weekend that this wave will not take flight before January 2020.

What’s going on with the Suez Canal certificate payments? Reports emerged in the local press yesterday claiming that the Finance Ministry intends to issue EGP 64 bn-worth of debt instruments to pay the holders of five-year Suez Canal certificates of deposit (CD), which mature this Thursday. Unnamed government sources speaking to the press said that banks will receive the proceeds from the bond sale, and pay CD holders the principal on their investment. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, however, denied these reports to Enterprise, telling us that his ministry has no intention to issue more debt instruments to cover the necessary payments for the maturing CDs.

CBE is already disbursing payments to issuing banks: The government previously accounted for the payments and has already provided the payments to the Central Bank of Egypt, which is in turn disbursing them to the banks that had issued the CDs, Maait told us. Sources in the banking sector said that the Central Bank of Egypt has already begun paying out proceeds to Banque du Caire, Banque Misr, the National Bank of Egypt, and Suez Canal Bank customers.

Background: The Suez Canal Authority raised more than EGP 60 bn in 2014 by offering five-year certificates to bank customers at a 12% interest rate. The proceeds were used to fund the construction of the new Suez Canal and several new tunnels. Analysts said last month that up to 80% of the 1.1 mn Suez CD holders will likely reinvest the money into new certificates.

Increased freezone fees threaten Egypt’s investment climate, says Faragalla Group chairman: The General Authority for Investment’s (GAFI) decision to increase utilization fees for investors in freezones could have negative consequences on the investment climate in Egypt, warns Faragalla Group Chairman Farag Amer, according to Ahram Online. GAFI last week agreed to increase fees on freezone investments starting from January 2020. Amer, who is also the head of the House of Representatives’ Industrial Committee, said that hiking fees threatens to undo the government’s efforts to attract investors. “This is a very negative decision which will be a setback for Egypt’s investment climate,” he said. “The government should give greater incentives to investors rather than force them to pay greater fees.”

Background: GAFI decided on 27 August to raise utilization fees paid by investors for land in freezones from January 2020. Under the new rates, investors will pay USD 5 per sqm for land used for industrial projects, USD 9 / sqm for storage facilities, USD 18 / sqm for second hand auto trading businesses, and USD 28 for prefabricated buildings. Vacant land plots that have been recently developed or upgraded will be charged for the same activities USD 7 / sqm, USD 11 / sqm, USD 20 / sqm, and USD 30 / sqm, respectively. The Qaft City freezone is exempt from the fee increases.

The Gulf is expanding its role in Africa: Japan’s recent pledge to invest USD 20 bn in Africa in the coming three years speaks to a growing global interest in new investment openings throughout the continent, driven by its abundant natural resources, rapid population growth, and huge economic potential in underdeveloped markets. Alongside the traditional centers of capital, the Gulf states have gradually expanded their footprint on the continent in recent years, driven by ambitions to diversify their economies away from oil and broaden their regional influence.

Economic prospects, food security and political influence are all drivers: GCC states have risen to become some of the largest investors in Africa over the previous decade, a process which accelerated after the 2014 oil price crash. The UAE alone invested an estimated USD 11 bn in 2016, overtaking Saudi Arabia to become the second largest in the world. Gulf states are now highly active in developing large-scale infrastructure projects across the continent, and have found new markets in which to export consumer goods. Africa’s rich agricultural lands have also provided GCC states — heavily reliant on food imports — with additional food security: Import agreements have recently been struck with Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Sudan and Tanzania. And increased economic ties are also being used as a way to consolidate regional influence — of particular urgency given the rivalry between Qatar and the other Gulf states.

Stronger ties bring a mixed response in Africa: Many African states welcome the expertise of Gulf companies, particularly in sectors like energy and infrastructure, where it can accelerate development. Saudi Arabia’s plans to invest USD 10 bn in South Africa’s energy sector and Dubai-owned DP World’s USD 50 mn logistics facility in Mali are two examples of this. But the situation in the strategically significant Horn of Africa is more complicated. Even as countries benefit from increased foreign investment, some — Somalia, for instance — express resentment at having their sovereignty infringed upon and being dragged into regional power struggles.

It is such a slow news day for Egypt in the foreign press that the only story to note this morning is a piece in Arab News on Egyptian jewelry designer Doaa Mohsen showcasing her Egyptian architecture-inspired line at an event in London.

El Sisi meets World Bank chief executive, IMF chief candidate Georgevina: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi held talks yesterday with Bulgaria’s Kristalina Georgieva, who made a stop in Egypt as part of her international tour to gain support for her nomination to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The meeting saw El Sisi and Georgevina, who is also the World Bank’s chief executive, discuss future cooperation in Africa should Georgevina’s nomination be confirmed, Ittihadiya said in a statement. Georgevina said that her agenda as IMF boss would include encouraging advanced economies to adopt open trade policies that will be supportive of growth in developing nations.

El Sisi meets with Guinean FM in Cairo: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi discussed bilateral relations, the latest developments in Africa, and Egypt’s priorities as this year’s chair of the African Union in a meeting with Guinea’s Foreign Minister Mamadi Touré, according to an Ittihadiya statement.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will be selecting on behalf of the Egyptian Electric Utility & Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (Egyptera) a consultant to design the independent power producer (IPP) framework, according to the domestic press. The EBRD has invited banks with relevant experience to submit their bids and will announce the winning bid next month. The contract is expected to cost Egyptera c. EUR 465k. Anonymous Electricity Ministry sources said earlier this year that the government is looking to end its reliance on power purchased from the private sector under the feed-in tariff (FiT) program in favor of the IPP framework, which allows private companies to directly sell power to consumers while paying the state a fee to use the national grid for transmission.

Leading private sector education provider Cairo for Real Estate and Investment (CIRA) has agreed to acquire a majority stake in the British Columbia Canadian International School (BCCIS) through the acquisition of a 60% stake in its parent company, Star Light Educational DMCC Corporation, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). The transaction will cost up to EGP 100 mn. The company also agreed to an undisclosed fair share value set by independent financial advisor Fincrop, it said.

Egypt will next week announce new investment openings and housing projects in a number of cities, including the new administrative capital and New Alamein, Housing Minister Assem El Gazzar said on the sidelines of the Big 5 Construct Egypt conference yesterday.

The National Railways Authority (NRA) will issue a tender for the purchase of 100 new locomotives during 4Q2019, according to the local press. The purchase will be financed through a EUR 290 mn loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Previous reports had suggested that the NRA was planning to issue the tender by July.

Ride-hailing company Careem has reached an agreement with GB Auto to supply it with an undisclosed number of Chery Arizzo 5 cars for its registered drivers, Al Mal reported. The cars’ prices will range between EGP 168.9k and EGP 202.9k, according to a message the company sent to the drivers this week.

The EGX has set today as the deadline for Global Telecom Holding shareholders who did not sell their shares to Veon during the MTO to sell their stocks through the OPR platform. GTH shareholders approved delisting the company’s shares from the EGX and the company is buying back shareholders’ shares at EGP 5.08 apiece.

House Rep. Ehab Al-Khouli is planning to propose legislative amendments to the law governing the Council of State (Maglis El Dawla) allowing women judges to hold positions in the council, according to Egypt Today.

The Cairo Chamber of Commerce held yesterday a meeting to discuss suggestions it is looking to hand over to the government on proposed amendments to the VAT Tax Act and the planned new Income Tax Act, Al Mal reports. Heads of the chamber’s divisions are looking at proposals that would involve the government raising taxable income to EGP 24k a year and a proposal to calculate VAT on goods at the first stage of production. The Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI) is also separately working on suggestions to the drafts. The government announced plans to amend the VAT Act and draft a new income tax law last month.

Tutankhamun display in Paris sees record visitor numbers: Over 1.3 mn people have so far visited the temporary display of Tutankhamun’s artifacts at the Grande Halle de la Villette in Paris, reaching a record turnout for French cultural exhibitions, reports Egypt Today. The exhibition was launched last March, and runs through to 22 September after a one-week extension to accommodate the crowd. It’s part of a 10-city tour that will wrap up in 2024, after which the artifacts will settle at the Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids. The story was widely noted in foreign news outlets (Arab News | AFP | Guardian | Europe 1).

The Tourism Ministry aims to work with local and international travel bloggers to promote tourism in Egypt, according to a statement. Too bad some Egyptians aren’t digging the bloggers’ sense of humor.