AM — The results of our 2021 Reader Poll are in

Good morning, nice people, and welcome to a chilly first day of the workweek.

Our big story this morning: The results of our 2022 Reader Poll, our first since just after the pandemic kicked off — and our largest ever in terms of participation. Thank you all for helping everyone in our community not just get a better sense of where our collective head is at, but also for helping many of us refine our plans for the year.

The big finding in the poll: Y’all are very optimistic about 2022. We have the rundown on the results in this morning’s What’s Next (below) or you can tap or click here now to go see the full results on the web.

We’re going to announce later this week the names of eight readers who we’ll be inviting to join us for breakfast when this omicron wave subsides. A dozen more of you will be getting Enterprise mugs in which to consume your morning coffee.

SPEAKING OF this wave of the pandemic: The number of new daily cases hit its highest level yesterday since June 2020, meaning the official count of daily cases has doubled so far this month. The silver lining: The death toll has not doubled in tandem.

ALSO this morning: Unvaccinated travelers to Egypt can now enter using a negative PCR, rapid antigen or rapid molecular ID Now test taken no more than 72 hours before arrival, the Health Ministry announced in a statement on Thursday. The previous requirement allowed only a PCR test. We have more in today’s news well, below.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Nahr Elkhair Development and Investment’s shares will start trading on the EGX on Tuesday, Al Borsa and Al Shorouk reported last night.

Looks like there won’t be an IPO after all: Sources told Al Shorouk that the company will not be required to offer shares to investors via subscription and will instead directly list its shares on the bourse on Tuesday. The company has set a reference price of EGP 0.25 per share for what now appears set to be a technical listing.

PSA #1- We can probably all look forward to a four-day workweek this week as the nation takes Thursday off in observance of 25 January. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly confirmed yesterday that public sector workers will take the day, though we’re yet to hear from the EGX, the Central Bank of Egypt or the Manpower Ministry.

PSA #2- Expect up to 5mm of rain and high winds on Wednesday with a high of 13°C, setting up a chilly (but crisp) Thursday.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- UK accuses Russia of coup-plotting in Kiev: The UK has the front pages of the Western media to itself this morning after the Foreign Office took the extraordinary step of accusing Russia of plotting a coup in Ukraine, going so far as to name Moscow’s alleged replacement for pro-Western president, Volodymyr Zelensky. The UK presented no evidence for its claims but appears to have had the backing of the US. EU leaders are yet to respond to the allegations. In the West, the Foreign Office’s statement is front-page news everywhere from Bloomberg and Reuters to the New York Times and the BBC. Russian state news agency Tass carries the response from the Kremlin, which accused the UK of spreading misinformation.

The UK’s allegations came following another weekend of saber-rattling and “diplomacy” between the US and Russia over Ukraine. The Russians announced new global naval drills, while the US and UK began funneling arms into Ukraine, all while talks between US and Russian officials made little headway: Russia doesn’t want Nato forces in Ukraine and the US doesn’t want to talk about it.

Division in the ranks: France and Germany both signaled over the weekend that they’d prefer not to get sucked into an armed confrontation with another nuclear armed power and made moves to reduce tensions. Berlin refused to go along with Washington’s plan to export arms to Ukraine and blocked Estonia from doing so. Meanwhile, French president Emmanuel Macron called on European countries to enter separate talks with Moscow without the US (much to the chagrin of US officials).

And that seems to be what is happening: Officials from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will meet in Paris (without the US) later this week in a bid to dial back the tensions and end the frozen conflict between the Ukrainian government and Russian separatists in the east of the country, Reuters reports.

Global markets had their worst week in over a year as a drop in tech stocks spilled over into other sectors, the FT reports. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the biggest loser, falling 7.6% last week — its biggest drop since the pandemic’s onset in March 2020 — as investors fled the high-risk growth stocks. Losses were accentuated by a 22% drop in Netflix shares on Friday as the company warned of slowing subscriber growth in its latest earnings release. The Nasdaq is down nearly 12% since the beginning of the year and is on course to record its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 posted a third straight week of losses, with the S&P 500 down 5.7% for the week, CNBC reports.

Warren Buffett gains on Cathie Wood amid the upset in equities: The apparent growth-to-value rotation in the stock markets has led Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway fund to nearly overtake Cathie Wood’s tech-focused Ark fund in the post-pandemic performance table, the Financial Times reports.

Expect more movement in tech stocks amid big earnings reports this week: Microsoft is up on Tuesday, followed by Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reports.

BTC dropped to a six -month low as risk-off sentiment grew, Bloomberg reported. The digital asset dropped 12% to below USD 36k on Friday, its lowest level since July, bringing the aggregate crypto market’s loss since the asset class began to fall in November to USD 1 trn. This marks the second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both BTC and the wider market, according to Bespoke Investment Group analysts.

Russia could deal another blow to the crypto market: The world’s third-largest BTC miner has proposed a blanket ban on crypto trading and mining. Russia’s central bank said digital currencies pose a threat to citizens’ wellbeing and financial stability and likened the assets to a pyramid scheme in a report (pdf) published on Thursday.

Though the Fed could be more open to digital currencies: The US Federal Reserve issued a digital banking discussion paper (pdf) of its own on Thursday, kicking off a debate on the pros and cons of introducing a federal digital currency and inviting the public to submit comments over the next 120 days.

NOT ENOUGH DOOM AND GLOOM FOR YOU?

The global economy will face an “obstacle course” in 2022 as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions drive inflation amid record debt levels, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said on the fifth and final day of the online Davos conference, the Financial Times reports.

Covid has written us one hell of a check: The pandemic will likely have cost the global economy around USD 12.5 tn by 2024, Georgieva said.

Georgieva called on countries with high USD-dominated debt to act quickly: The IMF managing director said that anticipated Fed rate hikes “could throw cold water on what for some countries is already a weak recovery,” adding that “If you have currency mismatches, now is the moment to address them.”

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Startups can apply until 30 January for the spring 2022 cycle of EGBank’s Mint Incubator. The incubator offers two tracks: a sector-agnostic track for startups at the MVP stage, and a fintech track that accepts early-stage startups both at the ideation and MVP stages. Main founders must be between 16-35 years old. You can apply here.

The Cairo International Book Fair starts on Thursday at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. Members of the public will be allowed to enter without providing proof of vaccination, the Culture Ministry said last week. The two-week event runs through to 7 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s What’s Next day: We have our weekly deep-dive into what makes and shapes pre-listed companies and startups in Egypt, the UAE and KSA, touching on investment trends, future sector insights and growth journeys.

In today’s issue: The results of the Enterprise 2022 reader poll are out: You spoke and we listened and from what you’ve told us, your 2021 has been a year of recovery and a far cry from the doom and gloom of 2020. Most of you cannot wait to get the ball rolling in 2022, with the overwhelming majority feeling that business conditions will improve further.

We want to thank all of you for participating in this and we cannot wait to discuss these sentiments with some of you in person during our breakfast.

US listing in the works for Fawry? EGX-listed e-payments giant Fawry has received approval from its board of directors to create an American depositary shares (ADS) program, which would allow the company to list shares in the US, and is exploring an SEC-registered secondary offering to follow, CEO Ashraf Sabry said on an investor update call on Thursday. Sabry did not provide further details or a timeline for the potential offering, which remains subject to market conditions and shareholder and regulatory approvals, according to a disclosure to the EGX (pdf).

What’s an ADS listing? ADS are shares in a foreign company that are held in a US bank so that they can be traded within the country. The bank converts dividends on the shares into USD and disburses them. It is not quite the same thing as an American depositary receipt (ADR) program. Investopedia has your back if you want to dive deeper into the distinction.

Capital increase coming: Fawry is looking to raise its capital by EGP 800 mn through a rights issue to existing shareholders, according to the regulatory filing. The capital increase should close in 1H2022, subject to approvals, according to the investor update presentation. This follows the company’s last EGP 400 mn capital increase through a rights issuance in June of last year.

Where’s the fresh capital going? The majority of funds raised through the capital increase will go towards expanding the company’s non-banking financial services (NBFS) offering. This includes consumer financing, digital ins. and money market funds. Fawry recently obtained a consumer financing license and is planning to launch a mutual fund with Misr Capital this month or next, Sabry said.

A large portion of the funds will focus on turning MyFawry into a super app. This includes being able to issue MyFawry pre-paid cards, host digital accounts, and issue instant payment notifications (IPNs) for transfers between any bank and the MyFawry card. Over 40 mn customers use the Fawry network, and the MyFawry app was downloaded 4.3 mn times as of September 2021.

The rest will fund fresh investments, including in startups that complement Fawry’s offerings, including new entrants in e-commerce, fintech, logistics and other sectors.

The plans come as the company is expecting its entire business to grow more than 40% this year, Sabry said on the call. Fawry’s consumer finance stream will start to impact the company’s numbers in 2023, after the company launches its buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) product in 3Q2022.

EDITOR’S NOTE- This story was corrected on 23 January, 2022 to reflect that Fawry’s most recent capital increase was in June 2021, not November 2020. 

We could have a trade agreement with South Korea soon: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed on Thursday to conduct a joint feasibility study of a bilateral trade liberalization agreement, according to the Korean press. If it comes to fruition, the agreement would be Korea’s first trade pact with an African country. Moon was here from Wednesday through Friday last week, marking the first time a South Korean president has visited Egypt in 16 years.

Korea is set to provide us with soft loans worth USD 1 bn over the next five years to finance construction and infrastructure projects, including transport and water infrastructure, as per an MoU the two presidents signed on Thursday. The funding from Korea’s Economic Development Cooperation Fund will also be used to fund new and renewable energy projects, the International Cooperation Ministry said in a statement. South Korea’s ambassador in Cairo announced the planned loan earlier last week.

The two sides also inked a USD 251.6 mn development finance agreement that aims to upgrade the signaling systems for the Egypt-Luxor High Dam railway line, according to the International Cooperation Ministry. This comes in addition to a fresh USD 7.9 mn development grant from the Korean International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) with the aim of establishing a public e-procurement system, including training and technical support.

Cooperation on culture: The two countries also signed an agreement to work together on archeological sites, restoration, and museum management — including the use of technology, and combating illegal trafficking in antiquities. It will begin with the restoration of the first edifice at the Ramesseum Temple in Luxor, according to a statement from the Tourism Ministry.

What else was on the agenda? El Sisi and Moon also discussed localizing the manufacture of electric vehicles, according to an Ittihadiya statement, as well as cooperation on communications, tourism, mining, security, and potential Korean involvement in El Sisi’s Decent Life development initiative.

Trade between Egypt and South Korea tops out at about USD 2 bn annually, while Korean investment in Egypt rings in at about USD 800 mn, Moon said, according to a cabinet statement. He added that some 33 Korean companies operate in Egypt.

Transglobe, Pharos Energy sign USD 506 mn oil E&P agreements: The Oil Ministry signed oil exploration and production agreements with Canada’s Transglobe and London-based Pharos Energy that will see them spend a combined minimum of USD 506 mn, in addition to a USD 67 mn signing bonus, according to a ministry statement on Thursday. The two companies will drill a total of 12 new wells under the agreements, the statement says.

The agreements include a 3.5-year extension to Pharos Energy’s exploration license in the El Fayum concession in the Western Desert, according to a company statement. The extension agreement includes “an additional obligation on [the] contractor to drill two exploration wells and acquire a 3D seismic survey in the northern area of the license.”

What’s in it for each side: The extension agreement will raise the London-based company’s cost recovery percentage, allowing it to use 40% of gross revenues from all its current and future Egyptian concessions to recover costs, up from 30% previously. At the same time, Pharos will “waive its rights to recover a portion of the past costs pool (USD 115 mn).” The company will also cut its excess cost recovery petroleum share in half to 7.5%.

Refresher: The signing of the agreement was a key precondition for Pharos’ planned sale of a 55% working interest in each of its El Fayum and North Beni Suef concessions to IPR Energy Group subsidiary IPR Lake Qarun. The c. USD 63.4 mn transaction is expected to be completed during 1Q2022, Pharos said when it announced the agreement last year.

Transglobe, meanwhile, signed a new agreement that will consolidate its three existing concession agreements in the Eastern Desert (West Gharib, West Bakr, and North West Gharib), according to the ministry.

The agreement will see the Canadian firm spend some USD 200 mn here over the next fifteen years, according to a company statement. The amount includes a minimum USD 50 mn the company committed to spending “over each five-year period for the 15 years of the primary term,” as well as an annual USD 10 mn payment each year for the next five years.

Egypt is considering the issuance of sustainable development bonds to finance the Decent Life initiative, International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat said last week during talks with UN officials.

Sustainable development bonds? Think green bonds, but instead of financing energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives, the money can be channeled into a wider range of projects considered socially beneficial (like education, health, housing or transportation).

But #1: It remains unclear precisely how regulators are defining their terms and we are yet to see the criteria laying out exactly how projects will be classified as socially beneficial.

But #2: We’re also a little unclear about whether the Financial Regulatory Authority would need to put together a new legal framework for the new securities or whether the government could issue sustainable development bonds under the existing green bond guidelines.

Think of this as the ministry planting a sign post. It will need in future to explain which authority could issue the bonds, when they could issue them, the size of the issuance, and the specifics on what the proceeds would finance.

This would be the first time the Egyptian government has issued a sustainable development bond, though it was responsible for selling the MENA region’s first-ever sovereign green bond back in 2020.

Sustainable development bonds on the EGX: The FRA is putting in place a framework that will allow companies to list sustainable development bonds on the EGX together with incentives to draw capital from hedge funds and private equity firms.

The Decent Life initiative: The four-year, multi-bn USD infrastructure project is attempting to upgrade infrastructure and basic services for rural communities across the country. By mid-2023, the government is pledging to have overhauled the delivery of public healthcare and education, upgraded road networks, built swathes of new housing, and improved access to sanitation and electricity in villages across Egypt.

Check out our project profile of the Decent Life initiative here.

Unvaccinated travelers to Egypt can now enter using a negative PCR, rapid antigen or rapid molecular ID Now test taken no more than 72 hours before arrival, the Health Ministry announced in a statement on Thursday. Unvaccinated travelers had previously been required to take a PCR test no more than 72 hours before arrival. The measures apply to travelers of all nationalities aged 12 and above.

Travelers who arrive to tourist airports in the Red Sea, Luxor and Aswan without the correct covid test certificates will not be sent home but rather take a rapid test at the airport and isolate in their hotels if the result is positive, Health Ministry Spokesperson Hossam Abdel Ghaffar said in a phone call yesterday with Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 8:43)

BUT: Travelers from South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, or Eswatini cannot enter using an ID Now rapid covid test. All passengers traveling from the group of seven countries must present proof of vaccination or a negative PCR or rapid antigen test taken within 72 hours of arrival.

Egypt covid cases hit highest level since June 2020: The Health Ministry reported 1,569 fresh cases of covid-19 yesterday, the highest daily tally since late June 2020, during the initial wave of the pandemic.

Daily cases have doubled so far this month as omicron spreads across the country. Egypt disclosed a total of 408,495 confirmed cases of covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020.

The death toll hasn’t seen a similar surge: The ministry yesterday reported 41 new deaths, the highest number since December, bringing the country’s total death toll to 22,330.

Egypt received 667k AstraZeneca jabs from Belgium and Germany on Friday as part of the Gavi / Covax program, announced acting Health Minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar. Covax began delivering jabs in February 2021 to 144 countries including Egypt, which signed an agreement to receive 40 mn vaccine doses through the initiative in 2021.

WHO backs wider use of boosters, recommending wider distribution of covid-19 boosters with priority given to vulnerable groups, upgrading its initial guidance to restrict boosters to “limited circumstances,” the Financial Times reports.

Leading the conversation on the airwaves last night: It’s Salah v Mane in the World Cup qualifiers. Egypt will need to beat Senegal if they are to make it to this year’s World Cup, in a match that’ll see Liverpool teammates Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane go head-to-head. The two countries were drawn together yesterday in the final round of African qualifiers for the tournament, which will be held in November in Qatar. Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 0:39), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 8:24), El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 8:55), and Hadeeth El Kahera (watch, runtime: 2:30) all covered the news.

Civil society groups have another year to comply with the NGOs Law after the cabinet last week agreed to extend the deadline until January 2023. Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 0:59) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 9:29) had coverage of the decision.

It’s cultural resurrection vs cultural destruction in the foreign press this morning: Reuters becomes the latest outlet to look at the livelihoods and historic graves in the City of Dead that are under threat as the Madbouly government goes ahead with the construction of a new bridge as part of its infrastructure drive in the capital. On the flipside, Bloomberg is out with a piece looking at the ways in which Egyptians are tapping into their history to restore some of Cairo’s cultural identity, while ARTnews reports on a pair of limestone sphinxes unearthed at the ancient Egyptian temple of Amenhotep III in western Luxor by a team of German-Egyptian researchers. Meanwhile, DW has a piece on the wave of solidarity among Egyptian women amid an “ongoing crackdown” on rights.

In business news: Khaleej Times says that online fashion platform 6thStreet will open in Egypt some time this year.

Fintech firm MNT-Halan has launched a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) service in its app,according to a statement (pdf). Backed by Halan’s recently-launched Neuron core banking system, the BNPL service allows customers to pay using credit on purchases made through the Halan app or direct from vendors, whether online or in a physical store.

The new service comes as MNT-Halan looks to grow its service menu in Egypt to include cards and supply chain financing, CEO and co-founder Mounir Nakhla said earlier this month. The company currently offers microfinance solutions, P2P transfers, bill payments, and remittances in addition to its BNPL loans.

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• Elsewedy Electric subsidiary Egytech Cables signed (pdf) two turnkey agreements worth EGP 686 mn for the design, supply, and installation of underground cables in a residential city in Kuwait.
• Cairo University has partnered with the US government to open a disability service center, which will advocate for university-wide policies and provide services and equipment to students with disabilities.