AM — Banque Misr, NBE offer 25% CDs as EGP drops against the greenback

Good morning, wonderful people. Happy Thursday — and a very Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating this weekend.

THE BIG STORY here at home this morning is the Central Bank of Egypt’s big move yesterday on the foreign exchange front. Hassan Abdalla allowed the EGP to slide nearly 7% against the greenback to 26.49. In parallel, the Big Two state-owned banks introduced one-year EGP certificates of deposit that offer a never-before-seen 25% interest rate.

What’s the logic? Abdalla is looking for a market-clearing rate — the exchange rate at which folks clinging to USD are willing to convert them into local currency. In short:

• The market will set the rate: By allowing the EGP to slide against foreign currencies, Abdalla is signaling to the market (and the IMF) that the central bank has indeed moved to what he has previously called a “durably flexible” exchange rate.
• And here’s a sweetener: As Banque Misr’s Mohamed El Etreby made clear yesterday, the idea is that the “limited-time-only” 25% CDs will convince folks holding USD that now is the time to go longer on the local currency.

^^ We have chapter and verse in this morning’s news well, below.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD remains the standoff in the US House of Representatives as the GOP-controlled chamber failed for a second day to elect a new speaker. Turned on by various flanks of his own party, Republican leader Kevin McCarthy was voted down in his quest for the post a fourth, fifth, and sixth time before the House managed to pass one vote — agreeing to adjourn for the night. The spectacle will continue when they give it another go today. Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, WSJ, WaPo and NYT all have more.

FROM THE REGION- Dubai has unveiled a USD 7.8 tn (AED 32 tn) economic plan for the next decade. The plan aims to double the city-state’s foreign trade and investments in efforts to bolster its role as a global financial hub, Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid said in a tweet yesterday. The plan targets foreign trade income of AED 25.6 tn and foreign investments of AED 650 bn in total between now and 2023.

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PSA #1- Private sector + EGX will be off on Sunday: The private sector will be off next Sunday, 8 January in observance of Coptic Christmas, the Manpower Ministry confirmed in a statement. The EGX will also be closed, the bourse said in a separate statement, following a similar announcement from the Central Bank of Egypt. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly had announced the day would be a national holiday earlier this week.

That means us, too: EnterpriseAM will be back in your inboxes at the appointed hour on Monday, 9 January.

PSA #2- We’re in for very seasonable weather for Christmas weekend, with daytime highs of 20°C and overnight lows of 9°C all three days.

PSA #3- There’s a 90% chance of up to 5 mm of rain on Sunday evening, our favourite weather app says, suggesting we’ll start the work week on Monday with cooler temperatures (a daytime high of 16°C) and a possibility of 3-4 mm of rain.

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MARKET WATCH-

Warm European weather drives natural gas prices below pre-Ukraine war levels: Unseasonably warm weather in Europe is continuing to push down natural gas prices, with benchmark futures falling as much as 8.7% to their lowest level in 11 months, reports Bloomberg. If temperatures stay high and alternative energy sources like wind power continue to record level outputs, further falls are likely, which would offer some measure of relief for depleting natural gas inventories. But governments continue to urge energy saving measures, as the coldest parts of winter are still to come and natural gas prices remain well above the five-year average.

Oil prices are also on the decline: The fresh covid outbreak in China unleashed by Beijing’s loosening of yearslong restrictions has sent crude oil prices tumbling this week, Bloomberg reports. WTI crude fell almost 10% over the last two days, while Brent futures closed down more than 5% for the day yesterday at USD 77.84 a barrel.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The House of Representatives adjourned on Tuesday and will reconvene plenary sessions on Sunday, 15 January.

The key news triggers as we start a new month:

• Inflation figures for December will be released on Tuesday, 10 January.
• The national dialogue will kick off on Saturday, 14 January.
• The government’s fuel pricing committee will meet this month to decide quarterly fuel prices.
• Global movers and shakers will descend on Davos for the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings on 16-20 January.
• The IMF will publish an updated World Economic Outlook towards the end of the month.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

The Central Bank of Egypt made a big move on the FX front yesterday, allowing the EGP to slide against the greenback at the same time as the nation’s two largest banks announced high-yield local-currency certificates of deposit. It has three goals: To convince folks with hard currency deposits in the banking system to de-dollarize. To get people holding FX outside the banking system to bring it in. And to tamp down on inflation by reducing liquidity in the market.

It was a two-step yesterday morning:

#1- Record-high yield on CDs: Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt — the nation’s two largest banks — introduced one-year, 25% certificates of deposit (CDs) (here and here). Banque du Caire has yet to follow suit. Buyers can opt for a one-time payment of 25% when their CDs mature in 12 months' time, or can go for monthly interest payouts at a reduced 22.5% annualized rate.

#2- By the end of the day, the EGP had dipped nearly 7% against the greenback to close at 26.49, according to the central bank’s website. That’s the EGP’s biggest single-day drop since last October’s devaluation, which the CBE said at the time marked its move to a “durably flexible” exchange rate. The EGP has now fallen by over 34% against the greenback from the rate before the October deval and is down by almost 70% from its 15.78 / USD level immediately before the devaluation in March 2022.

Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby was lead messenger on the day’s events, speaking with everyone from CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 9:56) to Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 10:54) and Yahduth Fi Masr (watch, runtime: 11:09).

It’s about de-dollarization… “The move widens the gap between the return on foreign currencies such as the USD and the EUR, both at less than 5%, and the return on the EGP [CDs] of 25%, giving the local currency a 20% edge,” El Etreby said (watch, runtime: 10:54).

…and tamping down inflation: With the prevailing notion that in a high-inflation environment, EGP is best spent on assets that ‘hold their value,’ the new CDs will be “one of the triggers that will drive down inflation,” El Etreby said.

High-yield CDs worked before, El Etreby said: “We devised CDs with a 20% return back in 2017 to curb inflation that had skyrocketed to more than 31%. [Those CDs] helped bring down inflation to 5-6%.” He expects the 25% certificates to have the same impact this time around, telling CNBC in a separate interview that the CDs are part of a wider strategy to bring inflation back down to single digits. Inflation hit a five-year high of 18.7% in November.

Get ‘em while you can: There’s no fixed date for when the CDs will be taken off the market, El Etreby said. “They could close in a week, two, three — the period still hasn’t been set,” he said, adding that he expected the CDs would be bought both by people who are currently holding savings in foreign currencies as well as folks who are sitting on EGP savings.

STRONG APPETITE FOR CDs?

Analysts expect savers to pile into the CDs: “The new CDs will increase the attractiveness of the EGP as a saving instrument and reduce dollarization,” HC Securities banking and macro analyst Heba Monir told Enterprise. Market watcher Hany Aboul Fotouh agrees, telling us that savers have been “waiting” for high-yield instruments, which will likely encourage some to sell off their FX holdings to invest in the EGP-denominated CDs. Aboul Fotouh also anticipates the CDs will spur higher remittances from Egyptians living abroad.

Tempting returns: “Based on our inflation expectation of 15.4% for 2023, we estimate the 25% CDs will offer a positive real return of 9.57%,” Monir said.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE EGP?

Float or devaluation? “This is certainly another devaluation,” Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Chief Economist Monica Malik is quoted as telling Bloomberg. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic analysis at EFG Hermes, told the Financial Times that we’ll have to wait and see whether this means we have shifted to what the International Monetary Fund called a “truly floating” rate. “To judge, we need to monitor the level at which the currency will eventually stabilize, the extent to which this will lead to improved foreign currency liquidity in banks and if we will see more volatility in the EGP going forward,” he’s quoted as saying.

Allowing the EGP to slide is part of a wider policy plan that includes the recent rate hikes and the CBE’s decision to scrap requirements for importers to secure letters of credit, Al Ahly Pharos economist Esraa Ahmed told Enterprise. “This package of decisions was necessary to clamp down on the parallel market and jumpstart economic activity — which wouldn’t happen with just one of these moves in isolation,” Ahmed said.

We’ll know more as the backlog at ports clears — and there’s been progress on that front: The value of backlogged imports cleared from our ports since 1 December stood at more than USD 6.8 bn as of yesterday, according to a cabinet statement, up from some USD 6 bn at the start of this week. The statement didn’t disclose how much remains stuck in ports, though the government last week pegged the value at USD 9.5 bn as of 25 December.

BACKGROUND-

#1- Currency flexibility was among key demands from the IMF in return for our USD 3 bn loan. The IMF said last month that it will be looking for “daily volatility in the exchange rate that is similar to the volatility observed in truly floating exchange rate regimes” following the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) scrapping of import restrictions.The central bank lifted last week the requirement to use letters of credit to finance imports in an effort to clear a longstanding backlog of imports, reversing a decision taken in February to help conserve foreign currency following large outflows triggered by the war in Ukraine.

#2- NBE and Banque Misr previously introduced one-year, 18% CDs last year on the back of the EGP devaluation in March, but stopped selling the certificates months later, citing the high cost. The CDs, which were designed to pull liquidity into the banking system, pulled in EGP 750 bn over the course of 10 weeks. NBE, Banque Misr and Banque du Caire also brought to market three-year, 17.25% certificates of deposit in tandem with the October devaluation, when the central bank moved to a “durably flexible” exchange rate.

#3- The new CDs come on the back of the central bank’s jumbo interest rate hike late last month. The CBE raised interest rates by 300 bps at the end of December under efforts to crack down on rising inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, the overnight lending rate to 17.25%, while the main operation and disc. rates were raised to 16.75%.

INTERNATIONAL REAX-

Bloomberg, Reuters, the Financial Times, and the Washington Post all have coverage.

Auto sales slump to fresh low: November marked another rough month for auto sales, which fell to their lowest level since at least the start of 2018 as the industry continued to face import restrictions. Some 5.2k passenger vehicles were sold in November, down 74% from November 2021, according to figures released by the Automotive Information Council (AMIC).

How bad is 5.2k cars? It’s really, really bad. EGX-listed GB Auto sold just over 8.2k cars in 4Q 2019 (the last year before covid-caused supply constraints hit the market).

The downward trend continues: Passenger vehicle sales in November were the lowest ever recorded by our internal trackers, which include AMIC sales data going back to the start of 2018. Excluding the outbreak of the pandemic in April 2020, the November data marks the third consecutive month of record low auto sales. AMIC figures reflect data contributed by member distributors, who include most (but not all) industry participants.

It was a disappointing month all around: Around 1.4k buses were sold in November, down 55% in comparison to November 2021. Truck sales dropped 64% y-o-y, also recording 1.4k units.

REMEMBER- Sales will likely pick up again this year after the central bank revoked import restrictions brought in last spring to conserve hard currency. Car sales fell through most of 2022 thanks to the restrictions, which made it almost impossible for distributors to bring fully built up vehicles, assembly kits, and spare parts into the country and forced a number of global car manufacturers to suspend sales to Egypt.

We might also see some new cars on the streets — though likely fewer than the government had initially hoped — through the expat car import scheme, which allows Egyptians living abroad to bring in cars using FX.

Have patience: It will take time for local assemblers to place and receive kit orders and for importers of fully built-up units to be able to pay for their orders — so don’t expect to get your hands on a new car before mid-2023.

Private sector ends the year with softer contraction: Business activity in Egypt’s non-oil private sector contracted for the 25th consecutive month in December, albeit at a softer pace, according to S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (pdf). The PMI reading rose to 47.2 in December from 45.4 a month earlier, but remained below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction. Surging inflation, a weaker EGP, and import restrictions were once again to blame for deteriorating conditions, S&P Global said.

Inflationary pressures are the biggest culprit: “According to survey panelists, lower activity generally reflected weak demand conditions, as rising prices led customers to make additional cuts to spending,” S&P Global said. Inflation hit a five-year high of 18.7% in November. December’s inflation figures are expected to be released next Tuesday, 10 January.

As well as the falling EGP: "The pound’s depreciation against the USD in recent months continued to drive input costs higher, although the latest data signaled a softer rate of inflation than November's over four-year record,” said S&P Global economist David Owen. The currency has fallen some 34% against the greenback since late October, when the central bank devalued the EGP and moved to a durably flexible exchange rate. A weaker local currency led material prices to surge while staff costs saw a modest rise, respondents said.

Fewer hands on deck: Businesses also slashed headcounts for the second time in three months, pushing backlogs of work to rise at their fastest pace in over two years.

The outlook is still optimistic: “Expectations towards future output improved for the second month running from October's record low and were the strongest since June” despite ongoing concerns over global economic conditions, the report said

The story is getting ink from Reuters and Bloomberg.

FROM THE REGION-

Non-oil business activity in the UAE grew at a marginally slower pace in December, with the PMI falling to 54.2 from 54.4 in November, according to S&P Global (pdf). The lowest reading since the start of 2022 provided “further signs that growth momentum has moderated from its post-pandemic peak in the third quarter,” Owen said.

Is an Egypt-Italy electricity interconnection project coming? Italy has reportedly submitted a proposal to the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company to work on a joint USD 2.8 bn electricity interconnection project between the two countries with a capacity of 2.5-3 GW, Bloomberg Asharq reports, citing two unnamed government sources.

Italy is offering to do the legwork: Italy has reportedly proposed signing an MoU to begin conducting a feasibility study for the project, the costs of which the Italian side would cover. The Italian proposal also commits the country to securing funding from Italian banks and European financing agencies for the project, were it to go ahead.

SOUND SMART- We’ve built a large surplus of electricity generation capacity over the past few years — and Europe is looking for energy suppliers. Italy’s proposal comes as Europe faces an unprecedented energy crisis thanks to the loss of Russian fossil fuels. We’re well placed to help fill the gap: Egypt has already been preparing to link its electricity grids with Greece and Cyprus through a subsea cable as part of the USD 4 bn EuroAfrica Interconnector project since 2018, while the USD 1.8 bn 3 GW Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection is set to go live in May 2025. Our grid is currently linked with Jordan, Palestine, Libya, and most recently Sudan.

Everyone wants a piece of Pachin: Compass Capital has submitted a non-binding offer to purchase between 51-90% of Paint and Chemical Industries (Pachin) for EGP 30 a share, according to a disclosure to the EGX (pdf) from the Financial Regulatory Authority yesterday. Compass’ offer values Pachin at EGP 720 mn.

The bids are hotting up: Compass’ offer is the highest of five that the regional paint distributor has received since last summer, outbidding Eagle Chemicals’ EGP 29.5 a share offer and UAE’s National Paints Holdings EGP 29 per share offer.

Two suitors have fallen by the wayside: Universal Building Materials and Chemicals (Sipes) and Saybad Industrial Investment withdrew their takeover bids after Pachin rejected them for undervaluing the firm.

What’s next? Compass will conduct due diligence on the company before determining a final price, while Eagle Chemicals is also working on its due diligence. We’re expecting to hear back from Pachin in response to NPH’s offer later this month, but seeing as the company has now received not one, but two offers that are more generous, it’s not looking too good for NPH.

REMEMBER- The play for Pachin comes amid the government’s privatization push, which should see it reduce its involvement in or exit certain industries to make way for the private sector. Pachin is currently approximately 54% owned by state-owned companies and banks.

Advisors: Al Ahly Pharos is advising Pachin while Shalakany Law Office is counsel.

Bank ABC and Blom Bank Egypt are now a single entity: Bahrain’s Bank ABC has completed the legal merger of Bank ABC Egypt and Blom Bank Egypt, following its acquisition of 99.5% of Blom Bank Egypt, the buyer said in a statement yesterday.

This has been at least two years in the making: The two sides reached an initial agreement on the acquisition in January 2021 before tying the knot in August in a USD 424 mn transaction, valuing Blom Bank’s Egyptian arm at USD 427 mn (EGP 6.7 bn at the time.)

The merger will expand Bank ABC’s local network to 68 branches throughout the country, adding Blom’s 41 locations to its existing 27-branch network. The purchase includes Blom Bank Egypt’s physical and non-physical assets and customer accounts. The acquisition triples Bank ABC’s market share, takes its total assets to EGP 67 bn, and will help it expand its service offerings.

Advisors: HSBC Bank Middle East was the financial advisor for Bank ABC. Zulficar & Partners was the legal advisor to the buyer, while Commercial International Brokerage Company (CIBC) was the broker.

The new one-year, 25% certificate of deposit (CDs) by Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt dominated the talk shows yesterday. Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby held phone calls with most of the talking heads, explaining the decision and its intended effects on the parallel market and inflation. We have full coverage in this morning’s news well, above.

ALSO- There was plenty of airtime given to news that Egypt made USD 2.5 bn in external debt repayments in November and December, first reported by the state Middle East News Agency citing an unnamed banking official. Foreign reserves rose by nearly USD 500 mn over the course of December despite the payments, the pundits noted. Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal (watch, runtime:3:56) and Masaa DMC’s Ramy Radwan (watch, runtime: 1:45) had coverage.

DATA POINT- Some 30k civil servants will move to offices in the new administrative capital by mid-March in a pilot phase, new administrative capital CEO Khalid Abbas told Masa DMC’s Ramy Radwan in a phone call (watch, runtime:7:27.) Government employees began to make the move to the new capital this week, he said.

Hisham Ghorab, co–founder and managing partner, Style Design: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Hisham Ghorab, co–founder and managing partner at architecture and design firm Style Design. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

My name is Hisham Ghorab. I am a proud Egyptian, a married family man with two daughters now in their twenties, and a dog lover. With Nala, our little golden retriever, life at home is never boring. Professionally, I am an architect and the co-founder and managing partner of the multidisciplinary architecture and design firm Style Design.

We are based in Cairo and specialize in integrated design projects, including design, contracting, retail, and maintenance. We were founded in 1989 and currently employ c. 300 people and serve a variety of projects in both local and international markets, ranging from residential and commercial properties to offices and co-working spaces, hospitality and F&B, education, government, healthcare, and more

As managing partner of Style Design, my most important responsibility is to be there for my employees – to support them and help them excel and grow further. They are the ones to whom we owe our success. My other duties are divided into strategic and operative responsibilities.

As soon as I wake up – which is usually around 7am – I head to the gym for an hour or run a lap around the track. When I exercise in the morning, I have more energy throughout the day, can concentrate better, and I’m simply in a better mood. Then I shower, have my morning coffee and breakfast, and get ready for my workday. My morning meetings start in the car on my way to work.

In my daily life, there is no such thing as a “normal” workday. I have days when I’m in the office, days where I’m on site, days where I’m at one of our showrooms, or days where I meet with clients.

As an architect, it’s also very important to find some time for yourself to focus and reorganize. It’s during this time that my creativity kicks in and I can focus on strategic milestones and getting work done.

When I get home from work, I eat dinner and then usually take a short power nap. After that, I like to spend time with my family and friends. I firmly believe that a healthy work-life balance is really important for your health and psyche. Even though it is sometimes difficult to achieve, I always try to find the time to exercise and spend time with my family. I also place great importance on my sleep and try to get at least 7 hours so that my body has enough time to recover and recharge for the next morning

I want to act as a role model and encourage younger generations to discover their passion for architecture and design. I would also like to work on more projects that contribute to the preservation and revitalization of historic districts and our cultural heritage, as with some of our recent projects — like Khufu’s restaurant and the King Khufu Center at the Great Pyramids of Giza, the Tahrir Cultural Center and cafeteria at AUC, as well as the Consoleya co-working space in Downtown Cairo.

I’m a big fan of books about personal and professional development. Start With Why by Simon Sinek is one of my favorite books. It challenges you to rethink your daily behaviors and actions by constantly looking for the “why” in everything you do – whether it’s growing your business or seeking a more fulfilling and meaningful life. Other books I highly recommend are Eckhart Tolle’s The Power of Now, Atomic Habits by James Clear, and The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey.

Success is not a comfortable process. You have to learn and adapt and be comfortable being uncomfortable. Self-development author Brian Tracy lists three enemies of success, the first of which is the comfort zone. Some 80% of the population find reasons for not changing even if change can be positive or beneficial. If you want to be successful, start putting some pressure on yourself as nothing grows in the comfort zone.