AM — Supply Minister calls on House to discuss proposals for bread subsidy reform

Good morning, wonderful people. It’s a quiet Monday morning — but expect the newsflow to pick up pace as the day wears on. September inflation figures are due out today and the Senate will be discussing key legislation meant to power up our electric vehicle industry.

THE BIG STORY here at home: The Supply Minister is breaking a months-long silence on bread subsidy reform. Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy is calling on MPs to form a committee to discuss ways to target the country’s gargantuan subsidy program more effectively and cut what we pay to import wheat. Subsidy reform — traditionally a “third rail” of Egyptian public policy — has been a no-go area for years, but is back in the spotlight as more households are squeezed by the rising cost of living.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The EGX is looking to drum up interest in listed companies on a roadshow to Dubai and Abu Dhabi later this month, an EGX source told Enterprise. The bourse has tapped Al Ahly Pharos to help manage the roadshow, with EGX boss Rami El Dokany set to meet with as many as 100 regional and international financial institutions, the source said.

It’s inflation day: Capmas and the Central Bank of Egypt are set to release inflation figures for September today. Analysts are expecting inflation to have continued rising in September due to the weakening EGP after reaching highs not seen since November 2018 in August.

ALSO- A green Monday for the Senate: The Senate will discuss legislation today that could set up a new regulatory body to set policies to localize the auto industry, including electric vehicles (EV). Enterprise Climate last week reported in depth on the bill, which would also set up a fund to provide financing and incentives to investors looking to get in on local EV assembly in Egypt.

The Senate will also discuss amendments to the Environment Act that would see a “green fee” of between EGP 1k and EGP 50k levied on new diesel and gas vehicles. As the bill currently stands, some 80% of the proceeds would go towards localizing our climate-friendly vehicle industry, with the rest to be split between the Environment` Protection Fund and the state budget.

CATCH UP QUICK- The government’s automotive committee held its first meeting last month, inching us closer to the long-awaited automotive strategy.

** CORRECTION- In yesterday’s editions of EnterpriseAM and EnterprisePM, we incorrectly reported that the “green fee” would be set between EGP 1k and EGP 500k.

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Take our EV survey: Are you an ex-petrolhead shopping around for your first electric vehicle? EV-curious and wondering what all the fuss is about? Or are you not ready to say goodbye to that sweet smell of benzene as you wait at the gas station?

We want to hear from you: We’re taking the pulse on how the nation feels about Egypt’s nascent EV transition. Take a few minutes to fill out our short survey. We’ll be back with the results in a couple of weeks.
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SETTING THE TONE GLOBALLY: The IMF and World Bank annual meetings kick off today in Washington, DC, and wrap up on Sunday, 16 October. The theme of the in-person gathering is clear from the very first session: “addressing multiple crises in an era of volatility.” You can explore the meetings’ website here or dive deeper into the day-by-day agenda here.

Not (yet) on the agenda: A meeting of the executive board to discuss an assistance package for Egypt. The public agenda of the IMF’s top body so far shows no meetings penciled in for this week. The board would have to approve any loan or other assistance to Egypt.

Central Bank Governor Hassan Abdalla, a number of cabinet members, and a who’s who of the Egyptian banking community are all descending on Washington for the get-together.

OTHER BIG GLOBAL STORIES worth knowing about this morning:

• There’s less than a month to go until midterm elections in the United States. The New York Times is describing this as a “tumultuous race.” The right-leaning Wall Street Journal suggests voters prefer Republicans on economic issues heading into the 8 November poll, and Politico is calling the battle for a majority in the Senate a “nail-biter.”
• Markets sage Mohamed El Erian is getting lots of ink after he warned in a televised interview that the US faces “a very high probability of a damaging recession that was totally avoidable.” (Bloomberg | Fortune)
• Reporters are zeroing in on China, which will hold its once-every-five-years Communist Party congress next week. The gathering is expected to deliver China’s president, Xi Jinping an unprecedented third five-year term in office.
• An attack on a road and rail bridge that’s a key part of Russia’s supply line into southern Ukraine is still making headlines.

MORNING MUST READS-

What the hell is the metaverse, anyway? The New York Times’ Kashmir Hill spent 24 hours with a Facebook Meta headset clamped over her head to figure out the state of play — and is back with a report for those of us who just … can’t.

Howard Schultz’s fight to stop a Starbucks barista uprising in the Washington Post is simultaneously an inter-generational epic, a dive into the state of the US labor market, and a warning to startup founders that their businesses will — one day — outgrow their abilities to control them.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Assessing Nafeza, one year on: Lynx Strategic Business Advisors are hosting a webinar today to discuss the Advanced Cargo Information (ACI), aka Nafeza, one year after it was implemented. You can register for the event here.

The CEO Women Conference takes place in Cairo today. The event will bring together Arab and African businesswomen together to discuss women’s leadership and forge closer ties.

Fuel prices to rise this month? We’re expecting the government to hike fuel prices for the seventh consecutive quarter when the fuel pricing committee meets this month. Fuel prices have risen by as much as 28% over the past 18 months in response to heightened international oil prices, which surged earlier this year on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: The private sector can play a significant role in increasing kindergarten enrollment and high school graduation rates across Egypt, according to a new World Bank report. In today’s Blackboard, we look at the benefits of expanding public-private partnerships (PPPs) to provide universal KG education in Egypt, and how improving access to early childhood education is critical for Egypt's educational reform plans.

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at a changing regulatory landscape for nutritional and dietary supplement producers, which industry players say could undermine local manufacturing and hamper exports.

Supply Minister revives talk of bread subsidy reform in the House of Representatives: Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy called on MPs to form an ad hoc committee to look into possible changes to the country’s massive bread subsidy program. El Moselhy made the call during a meeting of the House Agriculture Committee, which was discussing a USD 500 mn loan the World Bank recently approved to support our wheat imports.

The inside track: El Moselhy wants representatives of the House’s agriculture, economic affairs and social solidarity committees to weigh in on reforming the program to bring wheat imports down. The goal is to reduce pressure on the state budget, curb demand for FX, and “make sure [subsidies] go to citizens who are really in need of them,” El Moselhy said.

One alternative: cash transfers for the neediest. El Moselhy revived a proposal to replace bread subsidies with cash support to the most vulnerable families, according to Rep. Hesham El Hossary, who chairs parliament’s agriculture committee. That’s in line with guidance from the World Bank, which said in its latest report on growth in the MENA region that food and energy subsidies are far more expensive for the state than “allowing prices to increase and supporting just the poorest 10% of the population with a cash transfer.”

El Moselhy’s comments could put smiles on faces at the IMF: While bread subsidy reform won’t likely form an explicit condition of the imminent loan to Egypt from the IMF, the multilateral lender has called on us to take “decisive” steps toward fiscal and structural reforms that would address the state’s budget deficit. BNP Paribas analysts expect that subsidies “are likely to be curtailed once the inflationary effects of the Ukrainian conflict start to subside.”

Watch this space: Top Egyptian officials are in Washington, DC, this week for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

BACKGROUND- This is the first talk of reforming bread subsidies in a while: Plans to overhaul the longstanding bread subsidy system — which offers loaves at below-market prices to more than 60 mn people — have been on hold since war broke out in Ukraine. The war upended global commodity markets, driving food and energy price inflation at the same time as supply chain snarls were already driving prices up. As the world’s largest importer of wheat — and with some 80% of its imports traditionally coming from Russia and Ukraine — Egypt has been particularly exposed to the shock. The government has been stepping up support to the most vulnerable amid the cost of living crisis, bringing another 1 mn families under its Takaful and Karama social security program and allocating more funds to subsidized bread.

Orascom Investment Holding (OIH) has earmarked USD 200-300 mn to build four new hotels — two in the North Coast, one in Cairo and another in Giza near the pyramids, chairman Naguib Sawiris said at an economic conference last week.

Details TBD: The company is currently conducting studies into unspecified new investments in the hotel industry, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf) following Sawiris’ comments, adding that OIH will share details of the potential investments with the board as soon as the studies wrap.

A push into African renewables: The company is also looking into setting up EV charging companies in unnamed African countries, Sawiris said.

Sawiris still a goldbug: A longtime fan of investing in gold and backer of mining firm Altus Strategies, Sawiris said the yellow metal has been the least affected of all asset classes by this year’s rising interest rates, far outperforming riskier investments like stocks.

MNHD to tap securitization market before end of 1H 2023: EGX-listed Madinet Nasr Housing and Development (MNHD) is looking to take the second issuance of its three-year, EGP 3 bn securitization program to market before the end of 1H 2023, MNHD CEO Abdallah Sallam told Bloomberg Asharq (watch, runtime: 1:35). The issuance could be in the range of EGP 1 bn, though Sallam emphasized that the value could change depending on how the company’s debt-raising needs develop.

REFRESHER- The developer closed the first EGP 300 mn issuance of the program at the start of the year. The company had signed an EGP 750 mn sale and leaseback agreement with EFG Hermes in December, which is set to include a few securitization issuances as follow-on transactions.

Advisors: Our friends at EFG Hermes are acting as the sole financial adviser, transaction manager, book-runner, arranger and co-underwriter on the issuance. CIB is acting as an underwriter and custodian.

It’s been a bumper year for the securitized bond market: The total value of securitized bond issuances brought to market this year currently stands at some EGP 42 bn, following a blockbuster EGP 20 bn issuance from the New Urban Communities Authority’s Al Taamir earlier this month, according to our internal trackers. That dwarfs the EGP 15.8 bn taken to market during the whole of 2021.

State-owned National Automotive Company (NATCO) has acquired 33% of local private sector EV services platform Electrified, according to a report by Al Mal.

NATCO looks to be building an EV empire — with a first mover advantage. The company wants to become the country’s leading electric vehicle distributor and plans to grow Electrified to become the region’s largest EV services platform, the newspaper quotes NATCO CEO Yasser Saleh as saying. The firm is already setting up the country’s first electric car distributor with state-owned El Nasr Automotive. It will be the sole distributor of the first locally-assembled EVs in the market and will also import and distribute EVs from other manufacturers.

It was a quiet night on the airwaves last night, as the talking heads chewed over the consequences of an ongoing FX shortage for the automotive and banking sectors, including car imports trouble and new limits on card use abroad introduced by at least four local banks.

Surprising nobody, car dealers still have a lot to say about import issues: Some dealers have been forced to close showrooms after the market was hit by rules to conserve FX that limited imports to a handful of essential goods, leaving new cars and car parts stranded at ports, head of the car traders’ federation Osama Abou El Magd told Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 4:07). Spare parts are also in short supply, Mohamed Gaber, a member of the Chamber of Commerce’s auto parts division reiterated (watch, runtime: 3:44), highlighting the lack of local production.

New withdrawal limits on using debit and credit cards abroad were the topic of Lamees El Hadidy’s interview with Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 14:11).

ALSO- Some 56k building violations settled and counting. The committee tasked with recovering state-owned land has so far settled 56k cases of illegal encroachment, committee spokesperson Ahmed Ayoub told Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 6:14) and Hadrat El Mowaten (watch, runtime: 6:48).

On a relatively quiet day for mentions of Egypt in the foreign press, the Guardian is out with a piece on young African activists who say they won’t make it to the COP 27 summit due to financial and accreditation hurdles.

Also making headlines:

• A third school tragedy: A 10-year-old girl died after allegedly being hit on the head by a teacher, marking the third death of a schoolgirl since the academic year started a week ago. (The National)
• The Egyptian Museum is showcasing the treasures of Pharaoh Psusennes I in celebration of the 200th anniversary of Egyptology. (Xinhua | watch, runtime: 1:01)

Investors are lining up to snag shares in state-owned hotels: Several unnamed international investors and investment funds have submitted offers to acquire shares in hotels owned by state-owned Egyptian General Company for Tourism and Hotels (EGOTH), cabinet spokesman Nader Saad said in a statement. The government is currently evaluating the hotels ahead of moving forward with the stake sales, he added.

REMEMBER- The Public Enterprise Ministry earlier this year said that it will merge seven or eight hotels owned by EGOTH parent company the Holding Company for Tourism and Hotels (HOTAC) into a single entity ahead of a planned listing on the EGX. The plan is part of the government strategy to privatize state-owned assets and boost the private sector's role in the economy.

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has ratified the legal framework for the Saudi Public Investment Fund’s planned USD 10 bn worth of investments in Egypt as part of efforts to shore up our external position. (Official Gazette)
• The Madbouly government wants to localize our water pump industry in partnership with Egyptian-German pumps producer Ruhrpumpen Egypt. (Statement)
• German pharma player Bayer wants to invest EGP 240 mn here over the next three years by reintroducing five products to the market. (Al Borsa | Statement)
• National Investment Bank subsidiary NI Capital will open the door for subscriptions to its EGP 25 mn equity fund before the end of the month. (Al Borsa)

Egypt, Greece show united front against Turkish-Libyan Med exploration ambitions: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias on Sunday met to reiterate their rejection of a Libyan-Turkish agreement on offshore oil and gas exploration rights in the Mediterranean, according to a statement by the Greek foreign ministry. The agreement could include exploration rights in the so-called “exclusive economic zone” drawn up by the two countries back in 2019, which Egypt and Greece have disputed with their own rival agreement demarcating maritime borders in the oil and gas-rich East Med.

Shoukry urged the UN to take a “clear position” on the Libyan national unity government that signed the agreement with Turkey, at a press conference following the meeting with Dendias (watch, runtime: 1:28). The Tripoli government does not have the “authority to sign any international agreements nor MoUs” since national elections were delayed in December, Shoukry said. Bloomberg Asharq and the AP also had coverage.

MEANWHILE- Egypt wants to unlock EUR 54 mn in debt-for-development financing from Germany. The topic was on the agenda yesterday when International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat met with the head of Germany’s Economic Cooperation Ministry’s Middle East Development Cooperation division, Mario Sander, according to a cabinet statement. The funding will be used for climate and green economy projects, according to the statement.