AM — Household electricity bills could be about to rise

It’s an eerily quiet news day, the likes of which we haven’t seen in what feels like many eons — and that’s not necessarily a bad thing after the months we’ve had.

Also, commutes might get a little easier after next Thursday as public schools will close for the summer. Can’t say we’re not a little eager for that to happen.

Inflation continues to be the big theme for the day at home and abroad, along with key news triggers on interest rates expected.

BUT FIRST- The Egypt roadshow continues: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly continued the government’s push to attract new foreign investment yesterday, explaining the government’s privatization plans and promoting the Egyptian economy in a meeting with some of the world’s largest asset managers, according to a cabinet statement. With representatives from Fidelity Investments, Prudential Financial, Capital Group and Barclays in the audience, Madbouly pitched the economy as private sector-friendly and spoke in detail about the government’s ambitions to increase private investment and roll back the state’s involvement in the economy.

This marks the latest in a string of meetings from government officials, who have in the past two weeks met with investors from Qatar, the UAE, the US, France and Poland, in a push to lure new investment into the country and promote the government’s economic reforms and Egypt as an investment destination.

THE BIG STORY here at home: Are we expected to see a hike in electricity prices next month? If we go by the government’s scheduled plan to phase out subsidies, then yes. We break down what to expect in the newswell below.

Meanwhile, the government’s drive to keep our supply of key commodities got a shot in the arm, as it has extended its ban on exports of wheat and other staple foods, while the Agriculture Ministry has announced plans to further grow our local wheat harvests.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- UN puts world on mass hunger alert as talks on Black Sea grain agreement collapse: Hundreds of mns of people worldwide face “hunger and destitution” over blocked Ukrainian grain, UN Chief António Guterres has warned, according to the Financial Times. Talks between Russia and Turkey on a potential corridor to transport Ukrainian wheat out of the country’s blockaded ports ended without an agreement yesterday, according to the Wall Street Journal. At least 20 mn tonnes of grain are trapped in Ukraine.

An agreement was “essential for hundreds of mns of people in developing countries, including in sub-Saharan Africa,” Guterres said, adding that the crisis “is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake.”

MEANWHILE- The OECD has become the latest economic body to warn of storm clouds gathering, forecasting a “sharp” slowdown of global growth this year on the back of Russia’s war in Ukraine and covid lockdowns in China and the resulting inflation. In a new report out yesterday, it revised downwards its 2022 global growth forecast to 3% from 4.5%, and projected GDP to fall further to 2.75% next year. The World Bank on Tuesday downgraded its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9% for the year and warned of an impending 1970s-style bout of stagflation.

On the plus side: The OECD said that inflation should start to abate by next year if supply chains normalize and commodity prices fall back. That’s a big ‘if’ right now, as a quick glance at this morning’s Planet Finance section will attest.

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MARKET WATCH-

US gas futures fell more than 6% overnight following an explosion at one of the country’s key LNG export terminals, Bloomberg reports. No one was injured in the incident, but it will trigger a three-week closure at the terminal — which is one of only seven such facilities in the US and processes as much as 20% of the country’s LNG, according to Reuters.

Hold up – why is the fire sending US prices down? Because the loss of the terminal will hobble LNG exports, meaning more supply will be redirected to the US market.

Europe won’t like waking up to this news: Expect the European and Asian markets to respond to this knock to LNG supply from the US. It’s bad news for Europe in particular, which is already struggling with some serious supply issues as it looks to wean itself off Russian gas.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s interest rate day for the ECB: The European Central Bank will likely call in a “new era of monetary policy” at its meeting today, Bloomberg reports, as analysts expect the bank to start winding down its pandemic-era stimulus and start on the path to tightening to combat surging inflation.

Next up, the Fed: The US Federal Reserve is “all but certain” to hike interest rates by another 50 bps when it meets midway through next week, Bloomberg writes, continuing the tightening cycle that the central bank embarked on in May with a 50-bps hike (its biggest since 2000).

The Central Bank of Egypt holds its policy meeting on Thursday, 23 June.

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Here at home, the Digital Transformation Summit gets underway today, bringing together public and private sector players in the tech industries to share and discuss views on the current landscape of the market, recent tech innovations, and proposed strategies.

Other conferences worth keeping an eye on this month:

• The EU-Egypt Sustainable Food Value Chain conference, which will take place at Grand Nile Tower Hotel next Thursday.
• The Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development,will take place in Cairo later this month on 21-22 June (Tuesday-Wednesday).
• The Big 5 Construct Egypt (pdf) construction industry exhibition runs from 25-27 June at the Egypt International Exhibition Center (EIEC) in Cairo.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

El Sisi’s national dialogue kicks off in July: The national dialogue of various political leanings called for by President Abel Fattah El Sisi will start in the first week of July, according to a statement from the dialogue’s organizers. Journalists’ Syndicate Head Diaa Rashwan was named general coordinator of the dialogue, and will be tasked with negotiating with political and union powers and other participating parties to form a 15-member board of trustees for the initiative. The dialogue is set to include “the largest possible number” of societal representatives and “define the priorities of the new republic,” its organizers have said.

NEWS TRIGGERS you’ll want to keep an eye on this month:

• Inflation figures for May are due out on Saturday, 11 June (from state statistics agency Capmas) and Sunday, 12 June (central bank figures);

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Could household electricity bills rise from 1 July? Households could see their electricity bills rise by as much as 21% from 1 July, according to the government’s 2020 schedule (pdf) to phase out subsidies by 2025. According to the schedule, hikes in some unsubsidized consumption tiers will see other households pay as much as 6% more.

We’ve yet to hear of any official confirmation that this will go down, but sources we’ve spoken with tell us that this is likely to happen.

REMEMBER- Subsidies were fully lifted for households who consume more than 650 KWh/month in FY 2020-2021.)

Some businesses will also see a small increase as the rate on the 0-250 KWh band rises 2.5% to EGP 1.23/KWh. All other tiers will remain frozen at current rates through FY 2022-2023.

The new tariff for subsidized households:

• The first 0-50 KWh/month will be charged EGP 0.58/KWh, up 21%. Households in this tier will pay up to EGP 29 a month;
• The next 51-100 KWh/month at EGP 0.68 / KWh, up 17%. Households in this tier will pay up to EGP 63 a month;
• The next 101-200 KWh/month at EGP 0.83 / KWh, up 8%. Households in this tier will pay up to EGP 146 a month;
• The next 201-350 KWh/month at EGP 1.11 / KWh, up 5%. Households in this tier will pay up to EGP 312.5 a month;
• The next 351-650 KWh/month at EGP 1.31 / KWh, up 2%. Households in this tier will pay up to EGP 771 a month.

Some unsubsidized households will also see prices rise: Those consuming 651-999 KWh a month will be charged a flat rate of EGP 1.36/ KWh on their entire usage, up from EGP 1.28 currently. Households using this much energy are expected to be charged up to EGP 1,359 a month (based on an average consumption rate measured by the government), up from EGP 1,279 in the current fiscal year. Those consuming more than 1,000 KWh per month will continue to be charged the same EGP 1.45 / KWh rate.

Subsidies will be fully lifted by 2025: The government will continue to gradually withdraw subsidies over the next three years, according to a new timetable (pdf) mapped out by the Electricity Ministry in 2019.

No staple food exports for another three months as we look to raise local harvests: The Trade Ministry has extended by three months its March ban on exports of wheat, flour, corn, lentils, pasta, fava beans, and vegetable oils, the state-owned MENA news agency reports.

Exports of any “excess” supplies of the listed goods could go ahead following Trade Ministry approval, according to the decision.

This comes as the Agriculture Ministry wants local wheat production to account for 65% of our annual consumption needs by 2025, Agriculture Minister El Sayed El Quseir said at a press conference yesterday following the Madbouly cabinet’s weekly meeting. This confirms the target announced earlier by Planning Minister Hala El Said.

More incentives for farmers? El Quseir said that the government would introduce fresh incentives next harvest season, without specifying what they could be. “Due to the global commodity supply crunch the Russia-Ukraine war caused, the government is focusing on providing local wheat farmers with the necessary incentives and facilities to increase wheat cultivation areas and crop yields,” he said.

Cheaper fertilizer is in the frame: Cabinet spokesperson Nader Saad had previously said that wheat farmers could be getting some help with new subsidized fertilizer prices, after people in the industry said that the surging price of fertilizers is one of the key impediments for Egyptian farmers.

Land reclamation is also a key focus: “We plan to reclaim large parts of the North Sinai desert for wheat cultivation, and will soon announce details on a North and Middle Sinai agricultural development project,” El Quseir said. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi also recently inaugurated a 1.5 mn feddan land reclamation project in the New Delta, dubbed Egypt’s Future, which will be used to grow wheat, corn, and other crops.

Wheat isn’t the only commodity whose supply we’re localizing: Egypt has already reached self-sufficiency in vegetable, cheese, milk, and poultry production, and “we’re about to achieve sugar self-sufficiency,” the minister said.

Refresher: The export ban on key staples as well as our drive to shore up local production comes as part of measures to shore up supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threw global food markets into turmoil. This comes as the government is raising local wheat prices by 22% as part of a raft of measures to incentivize farmers to increase production. It also introduced a minimum selling quota to the state and tightened restrictions on sales to non-state actors.

HARVEST SEASON UPDATE-

The Madbouly government has so far procured 3.7 mn tons of local wheat out of its total 6 mn-tonne target since the start of the harvest season, El Quseir said. The harvest season ends in August. “This is a good harvest and we’re still going to receive more before the end of the season,” he said.

No major change in reserves: Our wheat reserves are sufficient to last till the end of the year, a Supply Ministry official told Reuters yesterday, nearly two weeks after Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy said our reserves would last until January 2023.

Integrated Diagnostics Holding (IDH) saw its bottom line fall 8% y-o-y in 1Q 2022 due to rising sales costs, according to its latest earnings release (pdf). The medical diagnostics company reported net income of EGP 314 mn during the quarter, down from EGP 342 mn in 1Q2021.

Meanwhile, revenues rose 5% to EGP 1.18 bn despite a fall in covid-related income. And while revenues in Egypt fell 4% to EGP 879 mn, they still accounted for 79% of its net sales.

Conventional business is growing, offsetting falling demand and lower prices for IDH’s covid-related services, the company noted. The company reported an 8% increase in conventional test net sales, which brought in EGP 640 mn during the quarter and accounted for 57% of the company’s net sales. This offset a drop in covid related-revenues, which fell 11% to EGP 477 mn on declining prices and falling demand. As a result, net sales fell 1% from a year ago.

Riding out the storm: IDH has locked in stock at pre-devaluation rates until the end of June, and said it would “continue to leverage our long-lasting relationships with test kit providers to secure additional stock at competitive prices, shielding our business from the impacts of rising inflation and the EGP devaluation.”

IDH forecasts strong revenue growth this year despite challenges: The company is facing “difficult operating conditions” due to the spillover effects of the Ukraine war, the EGP devaluation and the pandemic, it said, but is still forecasting 18-20% revenue growth this year.

More expansion to come: Having added another 37 branches over the past year, IDH is looking to open at least two more branches in Egypt in the coming months and is awaiting regulatory approvals to begin their entry into Pakistan through the acquisition of Islamabad Diagnostic Centre.

Consumer finance startup Adva closed a USD six-figure seed round funded entirely by Sawari Ventures, it said in a statement (pdf) yesterday.

About Adva: Founded in 2020, the startup offers buy-now pay-later (BNPL) financing for services including education and healthcare, and has plans to expand to cover wedding parties, car maintenance, ins. and travel.

Where the money’s going: The capital will go towards expanding the company’s operations across Egypt and to develop its product and tech stack, CEO Rania Gaafar told Enterprise.

Forbes Middle East is out with a new list ranking Egypt’s top listed companies: Taking into account market cap, sales, assets, and income, the business magazine has ranked Egypt’s 50 most valuable and highest-earning listed companies. The banking and financial services sector dominated the list with 16 companies, while eight firms were in the real estate sector and seven in the industrial sector. The top five are:

• CIB
• QNB Alahli
• Telecom Egypt
• Elsewedy Electric
• Talaat Moustafa Group.

The top three firms also made Forbes’ MENA-wide list: CIB came in at #39 in the region, QNB Alahli was #63, and Telecom Egypt was #83. Topping the regional ranking were Saudi Aramco, SABIC, and QNB Group.

Check the full local list here, and the MENA-wide ranking here.

No one story dominated the talking heads’ agendas last night.

Amendments to customs tariffs approved this week by the House of Representatives will be a boon for the localization of the automobile industry, allowing it to compete with leading markets like Morocco and South Africa, FinMin customs advisor Magdy Abdel Aziz said in a phone call to Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 19:22).

SpaceX yesterday launched Nilesat’s satellite from Cape Canaveral, sending it into orbit where it will provide TV broadcasting and internet services to Egypt and other parts of Africa and the Middle East. Built by Thales in France, Nilesat 301 will replace the 201 satellite when it expires in 2028. The story got coverage from Yahduth Fi Masr (watch, runtime: 1:22), while SpaceX live streamed the launch (watch, runtime: 49:39).

More measures to lure tourists? Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has asked the tourism and civil aviation ministers to draw up a proposal for new low-cost flights and other incentives to boost inbound tourism amid the fallout from the crisis in Ukraine. Mas’a DMC had the details (watch, runtime: 0:43).

Dogosaurus: The foreign press is getting excited about the remains of a dinosaur with a face like a bulldog, unearthed in Egypt's Western Desert (The Independent | Sci News | The National | Daily Mail). Other than that, it’s another no-news day for mentions of Egypt internationally

SDX strikes more gas: UK-based SDX Energy has made its largest gas discovery yet at its South Disouq concession after drilling its third and final exploration well, it said in a disclosure to the London Stock Exchange (pdf) yesterday. This follows another discovery in March, which is set to start contributing to production this month.

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• New capital officially part of Cairo: Cabinet signed off on an Ittihadiya decision to expand Cairo governorate to include the new administrative capital to comply with the constitutional requirement that the seat of government — including the House of Representatives and Senate — be located in the capital. (Statement)
• 19011 goes bankrupt: The Cairo Economic Court declared Alpha Pharmacy Management Group — the owner of pharma chain 19011 — bankrupt after it failed to pay debt owed to banks and pharma distributors. (Al Borsa)
• Stepping closer to GREGY: The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) will this year complete studies on renewable energy player Elica’s proposal to link our electricity grid with Greece. (Al Borsa)

We’ve officially been passed the COP baton: Foreign Minister COP27 President-Designate Sameh Shoukry signed the COP27 Host Country Agreement with UN climate executive secretary Patricia Espinosa while attending meetings with members of the Group of 77 developing countries and China at a UN climate conference in Bonn (watch, runtime: 0:29). The agreement is a legally binding document detailing Egypt’s plans and responsibilities as host of the conference.

Keep the geopolitics out of COP, says Shoukry: Egypt is keen to “distance the climate negotiations from recent geopolitical developments on the international arena” when it hosts the COP27 climate conference in Sharm El Sheikh, Shoukry has said, according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

Also in diplomacy:

• Egypt and Morocco agreed to restructure the Egyptian-Moroccan Business Council to boost economic cooperation and investment. (Trade Ministry statement)
• Israel has turned down a US-led plan for a summit with the Palestinian Authority in which Egypt would have participated. (Axios)

Ahmed Helmy, business development manager at Amr Helmy Designs and founder of Korsagy: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Ahmed Helmy (LinkedIn), business development manager at Amr Helmy Designs and founder of Korsagy.

My name is Ahmed Amr Helmy and I’m the business development manager at Amr Helmy Designs (AHD). That’s my official title, but my daily role is doing a little bit of everything and being involved in several roles and functions of the organization. I’m involved in marketing, I work on technical drawings for our designs, I meet clients, and I’m very hands-on with visiting sites to make sure our work is being implemented correctly.

Amr Helmy Designs is a household name for avant-garde furniture, especially kitchen designs. My father, Amr Helmy, started the business more than 40 years ago — almost by accident. His dream was to be an architect, but he studied Applied Arts instead. While he was in university, he designed a kitchen for his mother, Nadia, and her friends were so impressed by the design being ahead of its time that they began asking him to design new kitchens for them, too. That’s how it started. Now, AHD works to embody different cultures: We have a zen kitchen inspired by Asian design, a Greek-inspired kitchen, and the Bauhaus German kitchen.

I’m really interested in and driven by high-technology ideas. My latest creation for AH Haute Couture, a division of AHD, is a voice-automated wardrobe that I just launched and presented at an exhibition last week, actually. AH Haute Coutures is all about fashion-inspired wardrobes infused with high-tech functionality, including the voice automation feature, hidden magnetic locks, and fingerprint-activated units. The design is a wardrobe with a coded carousel that can be customized with your belongings and will bring you a specific piece of clothing that you ask for through a voice-automated application. I’ve also designed a shoe rack with a similar functionality.

I really love taking normal, everyday pieces of furniture and taking them to the next level with technology, which is always evolving and is truly interesting to me. I founded Korsagy, which was born out of my passion for chair design — besides high-tech applications in home solutions. My designs for Korsagy are very much inspired by Danish furniture designer Hans Wegner, who is perhaps the pioneer of modern but functional furniture design.

We also recently started an interior design studio, although we haven’t formally announced it yet. We do residential, commercial, and retail projects through the studio, along with product design and event design.

Each person in the family has also branched out a little with their own subset of the business. One of my brothers, Mostafa, founded ZeroChemia, AHD’s environmentally conscious side, which has a wide range of products with zero chemical additives in the entire production process. My sister, Malak, set up a concept store named HELMY that feeds off AHD’s cultural element by focusing on the consecutive cultures that have been in Egypt, which are expressed in the store’s furniture, fashion, and art products. And finally, my youngest brother, Hussein, worked with my mother to establish Bayty, a sister company that brings together all the elements of the organization and the family’s subsets into a mini boutique hotel studio experience.

I wake up at 8am and my daily routine starts with a hot bath every morning. Not a shower, a bath. It’s become increasingly important for me to clear my head in the morning and set the tone for the day, so I also spend time before I head out to work to have a coffee — usually alone, or with my wife, Malak. I get to the office every day at 9am and start by catching up on the news by reading Enterprise, and then I start working through my to-do list.

I have the world’s shortest and best commute — I live right next door to our office and showroom space in Maadi, so it takes less than one minute door-to-door [laughs]. The upside of this is obviously the time saved on commuting at the beginning and end of the day, but the downside is also the appearance of around-the-clock availability because I’m so close.

To be honest, my experience with work-life balance is that I often end up prioritizing work because I’m so heavily involved in our family business. But I like to disconnect with sci-fi movies and immersing myself in anything high-tech. I don’t really like watching typical movies or anything that depicts life as we know it. I usually like to venture beyond what I know and what’s outside the box, whether with the books I read or the shows and movies I watch.

The last great thing I watched was Perfume: The Story of a Murderer. I also recently read Ride of a Lifetime by Bob Iger, which I really enjoyed.

My favorite piece of advice that I’ve received and like to give others is to take a break every now and then. And in the break, break a leg.