It’s a relatively light news day, but the big story of the day is … big:
The Madbouly government did the right thing yesterday and formally asked the IMF for a helping hand in the form of a one-year “rapid financing” facility and a separate stand-by funding arrangement. Key cabinet members have signaled for some weeks now that the government was open to asking the IMF for assistance as Egypt looks to weather an unprecedented global storm. Weighing on growth: The collapse of the global tourism industry, measures imposed to stem the spread of covid-19, and the spectre of falling remittances from expats abroad on the back of plunging oil prices. We have the rundown in this morning’s Speed Round, below.
The big story globally: Countries further along the infection curve than Egypt are laying out plans that look set to see them reopen their economies starting in May. We have the rundown in this section, below, in On The Global Front.
The news comes as figures crunched by the Financial Times suggest the global death toll from covid-19 could be as much as 60% higher than so-far reported in the 14 countries the salmon-colored paper studied.
Smiley Face’s Revenge: Cottonil is (once again) the self-styled “bad boy” of Ramadan airwaves as the Consumer Protection Authority moved yesterday to (once again) yank one of the undergarment maker’s holiday advertisements for offending our tender collective sensibilities. Al Masry Al Youm has the story, or you can catch the offending ad here (watch, runtime: 1:03). The CPA has styled itself as TV’s morality police since 2016 and has also gone after campaigns outside of Ramadan.
Meanwhile, how are the markets looking? The EGX30 climbed 2.5% yesterday in heavy trading, leaving the benchmark down 25.7% for the year-to-date. Asian markets started the trading week solidly in the green this morning as traders try to get their head around (a) prospects for economies reopening against (b) further pressure on the oil market. Futures suggest a mixed open in Europe and that US equities will open in the green.
COVID-19 IN EGYPT-
Egypt has now identified a total of 4,534 confirmed cases of covid-19 after the Health Ministry reported 215 new infections yesterday. The ministry also said that another 10 people had died from the virus, taking the death toll to 317. We now have a total of 1,502 confirmed cases that have since tested negative for the virus after being isolated or hospitalized, of whom 1,176 have fully recovered.
Sixteen cases have been confirmed among medical staff in Benha University Hospital, along with one patient, the local press reports. The hospital had tested 140 members of staff and 10 patients based on their contact with other confirmed coronavirus cases.
The oil and tourism ministries will give airlines a USD 0.10 / gallon discount on fuel when air traffic resumes to boost inbound and domestic tourism, according to a Tourism Ministry statement. Several airlines have reportedly been in negotiations with the government in pursuit of measures to mitigate the economic repercussions of the covid-19, including talks with banks and Egypt's Sovereign Wealth Fund over potential stake sale and zero-interest loans.
Manufacturers are also looking to get lower energy prices for factories in light of the sharp decline in oil prices, Al Shorouk reports. The government slashed natural gas prices for many many industries last month in what translated into a 25% cut for cement companies and 18% cut for metallurgy and ceramic manufacturers; electricity prices for factories also fell. The lower electricity prices alone will cost state coffers an estimated EGP 6 bn.
More repatriation flights: An Air Cairo flight brought home Egyptians stranded in Germany, Thailand, and Malaysia. The carrier will also repatriate more citizens from Jakarta today, while EgyptAir will operate repatriation flights from China, Ukraine, and Washington over the next few days, according to Civil Aviation Ministry sources.
ON THE GLOBAL FRONT-
May could be the magic month as countries around the world are debating their plans to exit lockdown and restart their economies. As we noted yesterday, some lightly-hit Canadian provinces and a number of US states are making clear their roadmaps or are already easing restrictions. New York signalled overnight that restrictions in the northern part of the state could be eased after 15 May. The news comes as US officials debate the pace and uniformity with which restrictions should be lifted, the Wall Street Journal notes.
Other countries looking at easing lockdown measures:
- France, Spain, and Italy will release detailed plans this week, the Financial Times reports. Spain’s plans to ease restrictions slowly and “sector by sector,” the salmon-colored paper says, while France is looking at gradually restarting schools, transport and commercial activity from 11 May, and Italy will allow many companies to start operating again from 4 May.
- Belgium is planning a phased easing from 4 May, which will see more businesses reopening, accompanied by 25k-30k tests a day, Reuters reports.
- New Zealand is slightly easing its stringent lockdown measures today, allowing food delivery services to reopen, but still requiring most citizens to severely limit movement and contact, NPR reports.
- South Africa intends to partially reopen on 1 May, allowing some travel for essential services and certain industries allowed to operate using a government monitoring system, Reuters reports.
China is lobbying against the EU’s claims that it used propaganda to evade blame for the pandemic, the Financial Times reports. Politico had published excerpts from an internal EU report on the alleged disinformation, but the bloc reportedly “softened” the report in response to pressure from Beijing before publicly releasing it, the New York Times suggests.
The Trump administration is working to “sideline” the World Health Organization in the global covid-19 response, the Washington Post reports, citing US and foreign officials. The White House is trying to divert its WHO funding to NGOs working on public health issues, remove references to the WHO from covid-19 factsheets, and delay resolutions and statements from global bodies — including the UN Security Council — by quibbling over their expressions of support for the WHO.
Parts of the global oil industry will inevitably shut down soon as oil price volatility, dwindling demand, and storage shortages continue to take their toll, Bloomberg reports. Production cuts are being penciled in all over the world, and include an estimated 20% reduction in output from the OPEC+ alliance starting on Friday. Even so, this may not be enough to stabilize the industry. Demand has fallen from 100 mn bbl / d to somewhere between 65 and 70 mn bbl / d, while an estimated 50 mn bbl are going into storage every week.
In a worse-case scenario, as much as a third of global output may need to be shut, with Goldman Sachs separately suggesting that about 20% of production could have to be taken offline in 3-4 weeks’ time.
Auto companies in emerging markets are struggling with a lack of government support as they struggle to make payrolls without any of the paycheque support programs we’ve seen rolled out in advanced economies, the Financial Times reports.
EGYPT BEYOND COVID-
The executive regulations for the new SMEs Act will be issued in three months, Al Mal reports, citing House SMEs Committee Chairman Mohamed Kamal Marei. The House gave its final stamp of approval last week to the bill, which includes tax and non-tax incentives to encourage SMEs to go legit.
AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD-
You know what we need in the middle of a pandemic? A succession battle in a quirky totalitarian state with nuclear weapons. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hasn’t been seen in public for more than two weeks now and is widely rumoured to be ailing or dead, the Wall Street Journal notes. Experts across the spectrum caution that it’s neigh on impossible to understand what Kim’s disappearance means until he reappears — or some form of official announcement of his death is made.
Saudi Arabia has abolished the death penalty for minors and will no longer flog people convcted of low-level offenses.
The pandemic doesn’t seem to have dented China’s plans to issue the world’s first state-backed digital currency. Nineteen companies — including McDonald’s and Starbucks — are set to participate in trials in the city of Xiong’an in the coming weeks, CNBC reports. The digital yuan will be a far cry from the cryptos that we have grown to know and love / hate: Rather than being a decentralized currency mined by anonymous users, the digital yuan will be issued by the Chinese central bank and be subject to heavy surveillance.
PSA- We’re looking at a run of good weather ahead as we slowly ease into summer. Look for clear skies and daytime highs of 29-31°C and overnight lows of around 18°C for the coming week, according to our favorite weather app.
*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.
In today’s issue: How the government is leaving room for the private sector to help plug the skills gap that has long seen employers complain graduates lack the skills they need to succeed in the workplace. The education ministry is enlisting the private sector to help develop a more robust vocational education system.