Egypt asks IMF for funding as economy weathers covid-19

It’s a relatively light news day, but the big story of the day is … big:

The Madbouly government did the right thing yesterday and formally asked the IMF for a helping hand in the form of a one-year “rapid financing” facility and a separate stand-by funding arrangement. Key cabinet members have signaled for some weeks now that the government was open to asking the IMF for assistance as Egypt looks to weather an unprecedented global storm. Weighing on growth: The collapse of the global tourism industry, measures imposed to stem the spread of covid-19, and the spectre of falling remittances from expats abroad on the back of plunging oil prices. We have the rundown in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

The big story globally: Countries further along the infection curve than Egypt are laying out plans that look set to see them reopen their economies starting in May. We have the rundown in this section, below, in On The Global Front.

The news comes as figures crunched by the Financial Times suggest the global death toll from covid-19 could be as much as 60% higher than so-far reported in the 14 countries the salmon-colored paper studied.

Smiley Face’s Revenge: Cottonil is (once again) the self-styled “bad boy” of Ramadan airwaves as the Consumer Protection Authority moved yesterday to (once again) yank one of the undergarment maker’s holiday advertisements for offending our tender collective sensibilities. Al Masry Al Youm has the story, or you can catch the offending ad here (watch, runtime: 1:03). The CPA has styled itself as TV’s morality police since 2016 and has also gone after campaigns outside of Ramadan.

Meanwhile, how are the markets looking? The EGX30 climbed 2.5% yesterday in heavy trading, leaving the benchmark down 25.7% for the year-to-date. Asian markets started the trading week solidly in the green this morning as traders try to get their head around (a) prospects for economies reopening against (b) further pressure on the oil market. Futures suggest a mixed open in Europe and that US equities will open in the green.

COVID-19 IN EGYPT-

Egypt has now identified a total of 4,534 confirmed cases of covid-19 after the Health Ministry reported 215 new infections yesterday. The ministry also said that another 10 people had died from the virus, taking the death toll to 317. We now have a total of 1,502 confirmed cases that have since tested negative for the virus after being isolated or hospitalized, of whom 1,176 have fully recovered.

Sixteen cases have been confirmed among medical staff in Benha University Hospital, along with one patient, the local press reports. The hospital had tested 140 members of staff and 10 patients based on their contact with other confirmed coronavirus cases.

The oil and tourism ministries will give airlines a USD 0.10 / gallon discount on fuel when air traffic resumes to boost inbound and domestic tourism, according to a Tourism Ministry statement. Several airlines have reportedly been in negotiations with the government in pursuit of measures to mitigate the economic repercussions of the covid-19, including talks with banks and Egypt's Sovereign Wealth Fund over potential stake sale and zero-interest loans.

Manufacturers are also looking to get lower energy prices for factories in light of the sharp decline in oil prices, Al Shorouk reports. The government slashed natural gas prices for many many industries last month in what translated into a 25% cut for cement companies and 18% cut for metallurgy and ceramic manufacturers; electricity prices for factories also fell. The lower electricity prices alone will cost state coffers an estimated EGP 6 bn.

More repatriation flights: An Air Cairo flight brought home Egyptians stranded in Germany, Thailand, and Malaysia. The carrier will also repatriate more citizens from Jakarta today, while EgyptAir will operate repatriation flights from China, Ukraine, and Washington over the next few days, according to Civil Aviation Ministry sources.

ON THE GLOBAL FRONT-

May could be the magic month as countries around the world are debating their plans to exit lockdown and restart their economies. As we noted yesterday, some lightly-hit Canadian provinces and a number of US states are making clear their roadmaps or are already easing restrictions. New York signalled overnight that restrictions in the northern part of the state could be eased after 15 May. The news comes as US officials debate the pace and uniformity with which restrictions should be lifted, the Wall Street Journal notes.

Other countries looking at easing lockdown measures:

• France, Spain, and Italy will release detailed plans this week, the Financial Times reports. Spain’s plans to ease restrictions slowly and “sector by sector,” the salmon-colored paper says, while France is looking at gradually restarting schools, transport and commercial activity from 11 May, and Italy will allow many companies to start operating again from 4 May.
• Belgium is planning a phased easing from 4 May, which will see more businesses reopening, accompanied by 25k-30k tests a day, Reuters reports.
• New Zealand is slightly easing its stringent lockdown measures today, allowing food delivery services to reopen, but still requiring most citizens to severely limit movement and contact, NPR reports.
• South Africa intends to partially reopen on 1 May, allowing some travel for essential services and certain industries allowed to operate using a government monitoring system, Reuters reports.

China is lobbying against the EU’s claims that it used propaganda to evade blame for the pandemic, the Financial Times reports. Politico had published excerpts from an internal EU report on the alleged disinformation, but the bloc reportedly “softened” the report in response to pressure from Beijing before publicly releasing it, the New York Times suggests.

The Trump administration is working to “sideline” the World Health Organization in the global covid-19 response, the Washington Post reports, citing US and foreign officials. The White House is trying to divert its WHO funding to NGOs working on public health issues, remove references to the WHO from covid-19 factsheets, and delay resolutions and statements from global bodies — including the UN Security Council — by quibbling over their expressions of support for the WHO.

Parts of the global oil industry will inevitably shut down soon as oil price volatility, dwindling demand, and storage shortages continue to take their toll, Bloomberg reports. Production cuts are being penciled in all over the world, and include an estimated 20% reduction in output from the OPEC+ alliance starting on Friday. Even so, this may not be enough to stabilize the industry. Demand has fallen from 100 mn bbl / d to somewhere between 65 and 70 mn bbl / d, while an estimated 50 mn bbl are going into storage every week.

In a worse-case scenario, as much as a third of global output may need to be shut, with Goldman Sachs separately suggesting that about 20% of production could have to be taken offline in 3-4 weeks’ time.

Auto companies in emerging markets are struggling with a lack of government support as they struggle to make payrolls without any of the paycheque support programs we’ve seen rolled out in advanced economies, the Financial Times reports.

EGYPT BEYOND COVID-

The executive regulations for the new SMEs Act will be issued in three months, Al Mal reports, citing House SMEs Committee Chairman Mohamed Kamal Marei. The House gave its final stamp of approval last week to the bill, which includes tax and non-tax incentives to encourage SMEs to go legit.

AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD-

You know what we need in the middle of a pandemic? A succession battle in a quirky totalitarian state with nuclear weapons. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hasn’t been seen in public for more than two weeks now and is widely rumoured to be ailing or dead, the Wall Street Journal notes. Experts across the spectrum caution that it’s neigh on impossible to understand what Kim’s disappearance means until he reappears — or some form of official announcement of his death is made.

Saudi Arabia has abolished the death penalty for minors and will no longer flog people convcted of low-level offenses.

The pandemic doesn’t seem to have dented China’s plans to issue the world’s first state-backed digital currency. Nineteen companies — including McDonald’s and Starbucks — are set to participate in trials in the city of Xiong’an in the coming weeks, CNBC reports. The digital yuan will be a far cry from the cryptos that we have grown to know and love / hate: Rather than being a decentralized currency mined by anonymous users, the digital yuan will be issued by the Chinese central bank and be subject to heavy surveillance.

PSA- We’re looking at a run of good weather ahead as we slowly ease into summer. Look for clear skies and daytime highs of 29-31°C and overnight lows of around 18°C for the coming week, according to our favorite weather app.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.

In today’s issue: How the government is leaving room for the private sector to help plug the skills gap that has long seen employers complain graduates lack the skills they need to succeed in the workplace. The education ministry is enlisting the private sector to help develop a more robust vocational education system.

The government’s decision to seek IMF funding to help cope with the economic fallout from covid-19 was the chief talking point on the airwaves last night. That being said, the vast majority of talk shows are on their regularly scheduled Ramadan hiatus, leaving only a handful of talking heads to zone in on the topic.

The broad strokes: Al Kahera Alaan’s Lamees El Hadidi recapped Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s announcement on the funding request and broke down for her viewers what the packages could entail. Lamees also explained that the government needed to seek IMF funding as the global economy slows down as a result of the pandemic. Egypt, she said, is looking to protect the progress it has made thus far on the economic reform front. We have chapter and verse in this morning’s Speed Round, below (watch, runtime: 16:41).

The funding does not come with demands that Egypt enact further economic reforms and is only meant to provide financial support, Cabinet spokesman Nader Saad was careful to note on Sada El Balad’s ‘Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 2:54).

Back on the covid-19 front: We could see some measure of normalcy restored in the tourism industry post-Ramadan, Federation of Tourism Chambers Hossam El Shaer told Lamees. The government is looking at resuming domestic tourism and allowing for restaurants to reopen, albeit with strict precautionary measures such as limiting hotels’ occupancy rates and enforcing physical distance requirements at restaurants and beaches, El Shaer said (watch, runtime: 5:34).

It’s official: We’re asking the IMF for fresh funding: The government has asked the International Monetary Fund for a one-year rapid financing instrument (RFI) and a separate stand-by arrangement (SBA) to help the country deal with the economic repercussions of covid-19, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said at a press conference yesterday.

Where the funding will be allocated: The tourism and aviation sectors have borne the brunt of the pandemic fallout, Madbouly said, indicating that a portion of the funding will be earmarked to support these industries through the still-unfolding crisis. Funding will also be made available for other sectors that come under pressure. The prime minister noted the packages will be used to preserve the progress achieved from the country’s economic reform program.

The RFI will allow the government to address any immediate balance of payments needs and support the most affected sectors and vulnerable groups of people, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement. Meanwhile, the SBA will be geared towards supporting the government’s reform policies and allow for continued growth, Georgieva said.

Georgieva gave Egypt props for its response to covid-19, noting that the Sisi administration has “responded quickly and decisively with measures to limit its spread and provide support to affected people and businesses. The Central Bank of Egypt has also implemented timely measures to support the domestic economy.”

How much are we looking at? Madbouly remained tight-lipped on how much the government is seeking. Pharos’ Head of Research Radwa Elswaify thinks we’re looking at a package to the tune of USD 3-4 bn, which she sees would be sufficient to help plug the budget deficit and restructure government loans without weighing on FX reserves. EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha expects a slightly lower USD 2.8 bn, according to the local press.

Egypt is looking to secure a five-year repayment term and low interest rates on the funding, CBE Deputy Governor Rami Aboul Naga said, according to Al Shourouk. The RFI will most likely be disbursed in one go, while the SBA could be disbursed over three tranches, Aboul Naga said.

When can we expect to cross the t’s and dot the i’s? The IMF’s executive board should review Egypt’s request in a matter of weeks, Georgiva said. Talks on the packages are already in “advanced stages,” Madbouly said. The lender was already in “direct contact” with the government over a potential lifeline, Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour said earlier this month.

What cabinet had to say: International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat noted that seeking financing from a multilateral lender like the IMF is the most cost-effective option on the table. The country’s fiscal and economic performance were solid prior to the outbreak, but revenues have since taken a blow from shutdowns and exceptional circumstances, said Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Planning Minister Hala El Said. El Said reaffirmed the government's revised target GDP growth for the current fiscal year at 4.2% down from 5.1%, assuming the worst will be over by June.

The story is leading the conversation on Egypt in the foreign press this morning, with Reuters, Bloomberg, the Associated Press and the National all taking note.

M&A WATCH- Cleopatra Hospitals merger with Alameda Healthcare likely within a month? EGX-listed Cleopatra Hospitals Group is in the final stages of merger talks with Alameda Healthcare, setting the two up to consummate a marriage “within a month,” Al Mal reports, citing unnamed “informed” sources.

Transaction was stalled after covid-19 hit valuations on the EGX: The newspaper says sources told it the covid-19 outbreak delayed talks — and saw both sides take a second look at valuations. CHG had its share price fall 25% since early February, reaching EGP 4.32 at the end of last week compared to EGP 5.80 almost two months ago. The company’s share rallied yesterday on the merger talks, closing up 3.2% at EGP 4.43, but the plunge has cut Cleopatra’s valuation to around EGP 7 bn from over EGP 9 bn.

A new sense of urgency: The outbreak has brought a new impetus to finalize the agreement, the sources said, as larger healthcare entities are better equipped to cope with epidemics through the provision of more beds and the ability to mark off wards as quarantine centers.

The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) is reportedly looking to block the merger, saying it would stifle competition. The ECA can impose fines and post-merger conditions if it can prove that the agreement would breach the Antitrust Act. Cleopatra is Egypt’s largest private hospital group, but industry numbers suggest the merged entity would have just a 4.4% market share of private sector beds and a market share of about 1.1% of the total market.

Background: Cleopatra was formed in a rollup led by now-defunct private equity outfit Abraaj. The group owns six major hospitals in the Greater Cairo area including Cleopatra, Nile Badrawy, Al Shorouk, Cairo Specialised, and in November acquired El Katib Hospital in Dokki. Alameda is a partnership between chairman Dr. Fahad Khater and the Emirates’ KBBO Group. It owns high profile facilities including As-Salam International and Dar Al Fouad.

We sat down with Alameda CEO Neeraj Mishra earlier this month to talk about how the company is responding to the pandemic: Tap/click here for the full interview.

M&A WATCH- Market regulator approves Egyptian Starch & Glucose MTO: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has approved Cairo 3A’s mandatory tender offer (MTO) for 100% of Egyptian Starch & Glucose Company’s (ESGC) 50.08 mn shares at a price of EGP 8.61 per share, according to a disclosure (pdf). The MTO, which set a higher per-share price based on FRA demands, values the transaction at around EGP 431 mn. The offer remains valid through 7 May and will conclude Cairo 3A’s acquisition of ESGC from its three main shareholders, the Egyptian International Tourism Projects Company (Americana Egypt), Americana Egypt’s parent company Americana Group, and Cairo Poultry.

That is, unless the ECA has anything to say about it: Cairo 3A has telegraphed that it will wait for the Egyptian Competition Authority to give its approval before pushing ahead with the transaction. It is not necessary for companies to get approval from the competition watchdog for mergers and acquisitions, but the authority has long sought signoff on M&A.

Background: Cairo 3A earlier this year began its bid to purchase shares in Egypt Starch & Glucose held by three major shareholders: a 23.2% stake held by Egyptian International Tourism Projects Company (Americana Egypt), Americana Egypt’s parent company Americana Group’s 41% stake, and Cairo Poultry’s 27.3% stake.

Hotel occupancy rates in Egypt could bounce back from the covid-19 slump as early as 4Q2020 or the beginning of 2021, Colliers International said in a report (pdf). The real estate services and investment management company sees Cairo hotels leading the country’s recovery next year with projected occupancy rates of 65% versus 46% this year. Occupancy in Alexandria is expected to rise 20 percentage points to 62%, while Hurghada hotels will see occupancy rates 48%, and Sharm El Sheikh at 43%. The Red Sea towns are expected to close out 2020 with occupancy rates between 31-34%.

MOVES- Suez Cement has appointed EN Investment CEO Yasser El Naggar as chairman succeeding Hayrullah Hakan Gürdal, according to a release (pdf). El Naggar was previously the CEO of the Chemical Industries Holding Company and served as deputy ministers of planning and investment after working for 25 years as a career diplomat.

MOVES- Misr Italia Group has appointed Ahmed Abou-Hendia as the board’s non-executive chairman, according to Youm7. Abou-Hendia worked as a lawyer and legal advisor for many companies and was also an arbitrator at the Justice Ministry and the Cairo Regional Center for International Commercial Arbitration.

Happy birthday, Hubble: Last Friday marked 30 years since the Hubble Space Telescope was first launched, and in that time it has captured images that enhance our understanding of the universe. NASA celebrated the day by sharing this recent Hubble image of two nebulas, NGC 2020 and NGC 2014, found some 163k light years from Earth.

Ramadan TV series The End provokes outrage in the Israeli press: The dystopian series, set in 2120, depicts an imagined future in which Israel has been destroyed. The series has prompted criticism from the Israeli foreign ministry, the Associated Press, the Jerusalem Post and Jewish Press report.