El Sisi is against a full lockdown, asks businesses not to cut staff

The 7pm-6am curfew to slow the spread of covid-19 technically expires today. We say “technically” because it was imposed on 25 March for a two-week period. We expect an announcement later today that it is being extended, but have no inkling of how long it will remain in place or whether conditions will be tightened.

And to keep us all on the same page: We’re still a week or more away from decisions on extensions of school closures (expires 13 April) or of the ban on flights (15 April) or the closure of restaurants, gyms and museums (also 15 April).

Two pieces of good news to get us underway this morning:

We never thought we’d say this, but Egyptian internet service providers are making us smile. Head down and read today’s Hardhat for more on why we think ISPs — not a category of businesses that engender warm feelings, not here and not anywhere in the world — are the unsung heroes of covid-19 in Egypt. Amid all the WFH / e-learning / Netflix and YouTube binges, the nation’s internet has been pleasantly solid (by Egyptian standards). We dive deeper in this morning’s Hardhat.

You know what’s also making us smile this morning? The prospect of Tim Hortons coming to town. We risk the umbrage of other folks with ties to Canada when we say we’d prefer Shake Shack, to be honest. But Timmy’s? We’ll take it. The non-covid good news comes from the good people at Reuters, who note that UAE private equity firm Gateway Partners bought a 40% stake in the Gulf franchise of the company for USD 50 mn. The wire service confirmed the news with Nilesh Ved, the chairman of the franchise’s owner, who announced plans to enter the Egyptian and Indian markets. Tim’s currently has 141 stores across the Gulf region. We’ve moved beyond double-doubles, but those Boston creams…

(Yes, you will need cranes to remove us from the sides of our flats when this very long period of WFH is finally ended.)

The EGX30 surged 4.2% yesterday, dragged upward by index heavyweight CIB, which rose 5.2%. The bourse saw heavy trading yesterday with shares worth EGP 1.2 bn changing hands, about 96% above the trailing 90-day average. The EGX30 is now down 29.5% since the start of the year

The Dow and S&P lost steam yesterday, with each closing lower after posting stong gains earlier in the day coming off Monday’s surge. The WSJ’s best guess on why? Investors are slowly getting their heads around the fact that the recovery from covid will not exactly be short.

The markets today: Asian shares are mixed, with the Nikkei weakly up and shares in China, Hong Kong and Korea down less than 1% as we headed toward deadline. Futures point to a mixed open in the United States and for European equities. Brent crude is up 2.4% this morning ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal Opec+ meeting.

COVID-19 IN EGYPT-

Egypt now has 1,450 confirmed cases of covid-19 after the Health Ministry reported 128 new infections yesterday. The ministry also said nine more people had died from the virus, bringing the death toll to 94. We now have a total of 427 cases that have tested negative for the virus after being hospitalized or isolated, of whom 276 have fully recovered.

Mild cases to be quarantined in dorms to relieve pressure on hospitals: Health Minister Hala Zayed said that confirmed cases with mild clinical symptoms who are under the age of 50 will be quarantined in university dorms under the supervision of the ministry and after spending five days at hospitals.

El Sisi is against a full lockdown, calls on private sector to not cut jobs: Egypt is faring well in its battle against covid-19, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said yesterday in televised remarks (watch, runtime: 50:05), describing the situation as “reassuring and under control” and saying he is not in favor of “suspending work,” alluding the fears of some in the business community that a full lockdown could be economically ruinous.

Highlights of the speech:

• El Sisi called on the private sector to avoid layoffs. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait later suggested that government help including bailouts and tax holidays will be contingent on companies holding the line on both employment and salaries.
• El Sisi noted that governments the world over are facing challenges from covid. It’s not Egypt’s fault, he said, directly addressing those who have expressed “skepticism” about the government’s “transparency regarding the outbreak”;
• Distributing masks at half-price or even without charge is an option on the table if the situation worsens;
• The Supply Ministry has been directed to double stocks of subsidy packages to reach 3 mn boxes to be distributed to low-income citizens;
• Egypt’s current strategic wheat stockpile is sufficient, and if necessary they would be ready to conduct agreements to make sure it stays that way;
• Don’t try to get away with shenanigans under the cover of covid: The president condemned people who are “taking advantage of the situation” to try and get away with unlicensed construction work or building on state-owned land.

El Sisi made no mention of the government’s plans to extend or expand the two-week curfew, which expires today.

The government has banned all gatherings, mass iftars and other collective social activities this Ramadan, according to a cabinet statement. The ban also applies to Itikaf in the last 10 days of the holy month.

Outsourcing companies and call centers have seen a 70% drop in demand among real estate, food and auto companies since the beginning of the outbreak, reports the local press. Some of the lost business has been recouped by heightened demand from healthcare providers and medical services but numbers are still hard to come by.

Eva Pharma will partner with local players to manufacture ventilators in Egypt that would be less expensive than imported models, CEO Riad Armanious told the local press. The company expects to test a prototype within days.

Lab and diagnostics company Speed Medical is buying 4 mn lab tests and disease and virus test kits through its newly established arm, Prime Speed, according to a regulatory filing (pdf). Prime Speed was established at the end of March with a capital of USD 4 mn. Speed Medical owns and operates Speed Lab and Speed Clinic.

The government has provided the healthcare sector with EGP 3.8 bn in additional funding over the past month, Planning Minister Hala El Said reported in an interview (watch, runtime: 22:44) on Sada El Balad TV on Monday evening.

Egypt continues to hand out fines to covidiots: Egyptian authorities have closed down and fined 6.7k private tutoring centers, 4.9k commercial stores, and 2.5k wedding halls for violating the ban on mass gatherings or violating curfew, as well as more than 7k restaurants and cafes for offering shisha after it was banned, Assistant Local Development Minister Khaled Qasim said on Min Masr (watch runtime, 10:08). Qasim also told Ten TV that 416 nurseries, 239 sport fields, and 2k markets have been fined for continuing to operate (watch, runtime: 03:44).

Civil Aviation Minister Mohamed Manar has promised to lobby the Finance Ministry to lift a 20% levy imposed on airlines that source maintenance, aircraft leasing, or other services from service providers abroad, said Al Masria Universal Airlines President Ahmed Ismail to Al Mal. Manar will also look into exempting local airlines from paying rent for offices in Egyptian airports, accommodation for its crew members, and any other fees collected by the ministry. The industry has been lobbying the ministry for a bailout package. International industry body IATA warned earlier this week that Egypt’s airlines could lose USD 1.6 bn in revenues, endangering 205k direct and indirect jobs.

The Trade Ministry’s SMEs Development Agency is launching an exceptional loan program for small businesses struggling during the economic downturn, Minister Nevine Gamea said yesterday, according to a ministry statement. Labor-intensive and industrial businesses will be given priority to apply for one-year loans of up to EGP 1 mn and can apply at the agency’s branches nationwide or by calling 16733.

The Egyptian Competition Authority is now offering legal and economic consultations without charge to companies and advisors on the extent to which their covid-19 policies are in line with the Competition Protection Act, .

DONATIONS-

BP Egypt has donated medical supplies worth EGP 2 mn to the Abbassia, Imbaba, and Alexandria fever hospitals, according to a BP statement. The equipment will be delivered to hospitals this week and includes an ultrasound machine, a digital radiography machine, and an undisclosed number of ventilators.

NBE, Banque Misr, EDB donate under Federation of Egyptian Banks initiative: The National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr are each doling out EGP 80 mn in donations under the Federation of Egyptian Banks initiative to raise EGP 150 mn, according to Al Masry Al Youm. The Export Development Bank has also donated EGP 20 mn.

MPs are giving up a portion of their bonuses to donate EGP 20 mn, according to Ahram Gate.

South Korea has allocated USD 200k in emergency aid to Egypt to help it tackle the virus, South Korean Ambassador to Egypt Yoon Yeocheol said, according to Al Masry Al Youm.

ON THE GLOBAL FRONT-

China reported no covid-19 deaths on Tuesday for the first time since the start of the pandemic, along with a fall in new cases of the virus, Reuters reports. This marks the first time since late January that Wuhan, previously the epicenter of the virus, has seen no new deaths. The city will allow residents to leave the city today for the first time since going into lockdown in January.

Several emerging market central banks could start tapping FX reserves to protect their currencies as investors continue to buy USD to hedge against covid-19, says Bloomberg Quint, quoting expectations from head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Khoon Goh.

Covid-19 is only adding to Lebanon’s FX crisis where banks have limited withdrawals in USD, stopped dispensing foreign currencies, and forced customers to accept LBP instead of USD at an official exchange rate that is almost half of the “market rate,” according to Bloomberg.

March saw USD 90 bn of corporate bonds downgraded to junk, including “fallen angels” Ford, Occidental Petroleum, and American department store chain Macy’s, the Financial Times reports. Bank of America strategist Hans Mikkelsen says the rapid downgrades are “shocking,” seeing as they usually take months rather than a few short weeks.

…but the continued ability of troubled companies to raise equity and debt marks a big difference between this the “covid recession” and the last financial crisis, CNBC screamer Jim Cramer noted yesterday. “This time the companies that really need money can actually get it. This time there’s no financial crisis, at least not yet,” the Mad Money host said. “Even genuinely troubled companies can raise capital here, a good sign for the economy, at least for now.”

Using coronabonds to fund stimulus programs is gaining traction: The White House could soon issue covid-19 treasury bonds to raise funds to help the country fight the pandemic, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said, according to Reuters. The US is not alone — at least nine eurozone countries have been mulling the idea and the African Development Bank has already issued USD 3 bn-worth of three-year coronabonds.

Dubai is considering bond issuances and loans to help shore up its economy: The emirate is in early talks with banks to issue its first eurobond since 2016 and acquire multi-bn USD loans for its troubled flag carrier, according to Bloomberg who cite a source familiar with the matter.

Business and economics were the topic du jour (albeit with covid-19 undertones) on the airwaves for the first time in as long as we can remember. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait phoned in to several talk shows to discuss President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s decree earlier this week to extend tax payment deadlines and support key industries.

The Finance Ministry is working on getting its ducks in a row to cover the expenses from the state’s economic support packages, including a three-month stipend for irregular workers and providing loans for the aviation industry, Maait told Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer (watch, runtime: 5:19).

Egypt is committed to meeting its foreign debt obligations, Maait added.

EGP 2 bn payout for export subsidies on the way: The government has already earmarked EGP 2 bn it will dole out in export subsidy arrears to exporters, Maait said on Al Tasea Masa’an (watch, runtime: 20:08). El Sisi had ordered the Export Subsidy Fund to dole out at least 30% of the arrears it owes to exporters, with each company receiving at least EGP 5 mn apiece.

Legislation for tax postponements, exemptions coming soon: The ministry has coordinated with the House of Representatives to approve as soon as possible a bill that would allow Cabinet to either postpone tax deadlines or exempt specific industries from tax payments, Maait told Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal.

Factories will likely get a real estate tax holiday: Cabinet and the House have preliminarily agreed to exempt factories from the real estate tax, Maait said, without delving into the details on how long the tax holiday would be. Tourism industry establishments will also be exempt from real estate taxes, but have yet to decide whether factories will also get the same treatment. Any tax relief will be contingent on businesses retaining all of their employees, Maait stressed (watch, runtime: 9:53).

On that note: El Sisi’s calls for the private sector to refrain from layoffs or salary cuts was a focal point for Masaa DMC’s Ramy Radwan, who noted that the president promised the government will help businesses do just that (watch, runtime: 3:56).

Qalaa Holding’s investments are still going according to plan this year despite current conditions, Chairman Ahmed Heikal told Sherif Amer (watch, runtime: 4:56 and watch, runtime: 5:53). Heikal said he expects the crisis to last around a year, during which time the food and beverage and pharma industries are expected to be the best performers. The Qalaa boss also lauded the government’s response to the covid-19 outbreak, saying it was measured and well-delivered.

The Health Ministry’s daily report on covid-19 infections and deaths was also recapped by Min Masr’s Reham Ibrahim (watch, runtime: 3:57) and Masaa DMC’s Ramy Radwan (watch, runtime: 2:55. We have the roundup in What We’re Tracking Today, above.

EXCLUSIVE- FinMin working on specifics of corporate income tax relief program: Businesses looking to pay their income taxes in installments under a tax relief program ordered by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi earlier this week will most likely be required to make three equal payments by set dates, with the final installment due by the extended deadline of 30 June, two senior government officials tell us. According to the sources, the first payment will be due on 30 April, the second on 30 May, and the third and final installment must be made on or before 30 June.

There will be no interest, fines, or late fees for anyone choosing to pay their taxes in installments by the extended deadline, as we reported yesterday. The move is a form of stimulus that will provide support to cashflows of businesses affected by the economic impact of covid-19, which so far includes a 7pm-6am curfew and the full shutdown of retail businesses on weekends.

You’re going to have to remit VAT, wage taxes and withholding taxes on time — there is no plan to extend deadlines for payments here, the sources said.

Details are still in the works: The Finance Ministry is currently drawing up regulations outlining the fine print of the directives to give businesses a helping hand amid the covid-19 fallout, the sources tell us. The regulations will determine criteria that would make businesses ineligible for the deadline extension and installment system, but it is expected that all businesses will be eligible since the slowdown has touched most industries, one source says.

Finance Minister Mohamed Maait has already finished drafting a bill that will allow Cabinet to implement El Sisi’s directives and economic support measures, according to a cabinet statement.

The state isn’t going to collect less in corporate income tax, it’s just going to have lumpier cashflow through June, the sources noted. The open question is how much the state’s take from the VAT will be depressed. Companies today are paying VAT for their sales in January and February — the authority will only be able to gauge the effect of the crisis once they begin collecting VAT on March and April sales starting next month.

FX reserves dip in March for the time in 14 months: Foreign reserves dipped USD 5.4 bn in March to USD 40.1 bn from USD 45.5 bn in February, marking the first month in over a year that reserves have declined m-o-m, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) said in a statement (pdf). The drop came as the CBE dipped into its savings to cover portfolio outflows and fund imports of basic commodities, according to the statement.

Despite the hit, reserves are still good to cover Egypt's import bill for at least eight months, which is higher than the international standard of three month, the CBE said.

Falling remittances from Egyptians abroad and the hit to the tourism trade could put more pressure on foreign reserves in the coming months, Ehsan Khoman, head of Middle Eastern research at MUFG Bank said, according to Bloomberg. Remittances currently account for 8.8% of Egypt’s GDP. Our remittances rose 13.5% y-o-y in 1H2019-2020, helping to narrow our current account deficit during the first six months of the fiscal year.

Short selling in Egypt has remained anemic since the mechanism was launched on the EGX in December, Misr for Central Clearing, Depository, and Registry (MCDR) Managing Director Tarek Abdel Bari said, according to the local press. Over the past four months, the bourse has only seen “a handful” of short selling transactions worth EGP 100k, which is so low it might as well be considered “non-existent,” Abdel Bari said.

The mechanism doesn’t appear to have picked up during the equity sell-off that gripped the EGX (and global markets), even though the market decline was a golden chance for investors to pocket some quick profits, according to Abdel Bari. Prime Holding Managing Director Mohamed Maher thinks the window for short selling the sell-off has already closed at this point, as markets are beginning to recoup losses and are likely to continue on an upwards trajectory, the local press reports.

You can chalk up the low popularity shorting to its still being the new kid on the block, Bari said. Analysts had previously speculated that many brokerages don’t know how the short selling system operates after the mechanism had a lackluster first few weeks on the bourse.

How does short selling work, again? If you think a certain stock is overvalued and that its price will fall, you short its stock. You borrow the shares (for a fee and usually for a set period of time) from someone who holds them for the long-term and immediately sell them on the open market. Pray the share price goes down (or release a report on why you think the share is a dog, as Muddy Waters did with NMC in Dubai last year). The idea is that the share tanks and you can then buy it back on the open market to return what you borrowed to the original owner of the stock (known as “closing out” your position). The problem is if you’re forced (by, say, a margin call) to close out your position while the share is up — and you’re suddenly buying back at a price higher than you paid, with theoretically unlimited losses.

M&A WATCH- Samih Sawiris mulls takeover of Germany’s FTI Group: Orascom Development Holding Chairman Samih Sawiris is considering the acquisition of the remaining two-thirds of German tourism agency FTI’s shares, according to German newspaper Die Welt. Sawiris purchased a 30% stake in the company from founder and sole shareholder Dietmar Gunz in 2014 through his Luxembourg-based investment company SOSTNT, according to the report. FTI Group is the third-largest travel company in Europe in terms of market share, with EUR 4.1 bn in revenue during FY2018-2019.

The potential sale comes as the travel industry reels from government imposed travel restrictions worldwide in place to curb the spread of covid-19. FTI earlier this year was required to send back home 65k travelers on orders of impending border closures and emergency health measures and has since seen business come to a halt.

CBE clears 8k companies, 100k individuals from i-Score blacklists: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has decided to scrub individuals and businesses with bad credit from a blacklist it maintains and lift restrictions on their access to the banking system, according to a CBE circular (pdf). The decision is expected to benefit 100k individuals and 8k businesses. The decision also includes a reduction in disclosure periods that will now be mandated to fall within a 6 to 12 month limit.

Background: The credit forgiveness initiative comes after the CBE launched a debt relief plan announced last month that would see marginal interest on debt under EGP 1 mn waived for individuals at risk of default. Eligible customers would also be required to make a 50% payment of the original debt in cash or in-kind accompanied with an arranged payment plan with the creditor bank.

REGULATION WATCH- FRA allows traditional insurers to own stakes in ‘takaful’ companies: Mainstream insurance companies are now allowed to be shareholders in their mutual guarantee or sharia-compliant “takaful” insurance counterparts, according to a decision by the Financial Regulatory Authority carried by Al Mal. The decision exempts takaful insurance companies from a stipulation in the 1981 Insurance Act that prevents insurers operating in Egypt from owning shares in their competitors.

The authority said that since the nature and process of takaful insurance is distinct, it should be treated as such. This will, on one hand, close a legal loophole stifling the sector’s growth and, on another, better equip takaful insurance players, who — having only appeared less than two decades ago — are relative newcomers to the industry, according to the FRA.

Move to support state-owned MIHC: The decision comes after state-owned Misr Insurance Holding Company (MIHC) set up a EGP 150 mn takaful insurance arm in partnership with the National Bank of Egypt. MIHC and two of its subsidiaries, Misr Insurance and Misr Life Insurance, hold a 52% stake in the new company.

Sharp downturn in business sentiment shows economic impact of covid-19 in MENA: IHS Markit’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March saw a steep drop in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar, Bloomberg reports, indicating that the costs of covid-19 in the region have already been heavy. Cases are still increasing, and doubled in the last week. The PMI gauge in Egypt fell to 44.2 in March from 47.1 in February, we reported earlier this week.

We have another quiet morning for Egypt in the foreign press, save for a few stories on covid-19:

• Egypt will find it harder to contain the spread of covid-19 now that it’s moved to the community transmission stage of the outbreak, with confirmed cases topping 1000, Xinhua reports.
• Many Egyptians are being hit hard by the economic fallout from the virus, as the vast number of people working in the informal sector cannot afford to stay home and face challenges accessing government support programs, Reuters reports.