AM — Primary surplus falls y-o-y in 1H2021-2022

Well, friends, we’ve nearly made it through another workweek together — may our collective reward be a relaxing weekend and a very productive, holiday-shortened week to come. Expect an announcement this coming Sunday or Monday that we’re taking next Thursday off in observation of the 25 January holiday.

It’s a very quiet news morning here at home (the big story isn’t even business, but our making the final 16 of Afcon) and abroad (where our friends at Kashat get a shout-out from Forbes). Enjoy the calm — our Spidey Senses tell us next week is going to be busy.

HAPPENING TODAY- Taking stock of Nafeza: Lynx Strategic Business Advisors is hosting a webinar this afternoon at 1pm CLT that will see Customs Authority chief Elshahat Ghatwary and Misr Technology Services’ Khaled Nassef discuss the progress on implementing the new digital customs system, Nafeza. The keynote speakers will also discuss their recommendations for the way forward and how to expand the application of the system. You can register for the webinar here.

It’s Day 4 of digital Davos: Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will address participants in the morning of the fourth day of the virtual Davos Agenda. The afternoon will see sessions on ESG metrics, supply chains and global trade, and the commercialization of space.

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AFCON- Egypt made it through to the final 16 of Afcon 2021 with a 1-0 victory against Sudan last night. Center-back Mohamed Abdelmonem’s headed goal in the 38th minute was enough to see the Pharaohs through to the next round but it was another unconvincing display for Carlos Quieroz’s men, who rarely posed a threat to Sudan’s goal. In the other game in Group D, Nigeria topped the group with maximum points after they cruised to a 2-0 victory against Guinea–Bissau.

Who will Egypt face in the next round? We’ll know tonight. Having finished second in the group, Egypt will face whoever tops Group E in the last 16. The group is still wide open and any of Ivory Coast, Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone and Algeria could top the group. The third and final games of the group will be played this evening, with leaders Ivory Coast facing bottom-placed Algeria, and Equatorial Guinea playing Sierra Leone.

MEANWHILE- Tickets for the Qatar 2022 World Cup are now on sale: Prices for group-stage matches start at around USD 69 while getting a good seat at the final is going to set you back as much as USD 1.6k. The tournament will kick off on 21 November, making it the first-ever winter World Cup.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Joe Biden’s epic presser is all over the front pages of the global press this morning. With his administration slumping in opinion polls and the Democrats facing an uphill battle in this year’s midterms, the US president made a rare public appearance last night, answering questions from the press for almost two hours on his stalled legislative agenda, surging covid cases and tensions with Russia over Ukraine.

Most outlets are focusing heavily on his comments about Russia: Speaking unusually frankly on Russia’s intentions in Ukraine, Biden said he expected Moscow to invade in the coming weeks (“my guess is [Putin] will move in, he has to do something”), and threatened to introduce harsh sanctions and even cyber attacks in response. (Bloomberg | Reuters | NYT | Washington Post | FT)

Fewer are focusing on the domestic problems faced by the administration, including covid-19, surging inflation, and a gridlocked Senate. The Associated Press and Reuters both have macro takes on Biden’s first year in office and where it goes from here.

The Fed: CNBC is the only outlet highlighting Biden’s comments expressing support for the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to curb inflation.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Cairo International Book Fair opens next Wednesday, 26 January at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event runs 13 days until 7 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Non-oil exports rose 26% y-o-y to hit a record USD 32 bn in 2021, up from USD 25.4 bn in 2020, Trade and Industry Minister Nevine Gamea said in a statement. Government efforts to support exporters with subsidies and pay off arrears, restructure export councils, and bilateral and multilateral trade agreements helped to drive the increase in revenues, she said. The figure is slightly higher than the preliminary USD 31 bn Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly announced at the beginning of the month.

The sectors that generated the most export revenues were chemical products and fertilizers at USD 6.7 bn (up 45%), engineering and electronics at USD 3.4 bn (up 46%), and readymade garments at USD 2 bn (up 39%).

Our biggest export markets? The US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Italy, the UAE, Malta, Spain, the UK, Libya and Canada.

And by region: Exports to the EU increased 56% to USD 9.2 bn, exports to the US were up 51% to USD 2.4 bn, exports to Africa excluding Arab nations jumped 28% to USD 1.9 bn, and exports to other markets were up 31% to hit USD 7 bn.

The Finance Ministry just got the green light to start preparing to take its first sovereign sukuk issuance to international markets, after the Madbouly Cabinet signed off on the move during its weekly meeting yesterday. The issuance is expected to drop sometime in the first half of this year, officials have said.

But first: The Finance Ministry has said the government is looking to finalize the executive regulations of the Sovereign Sukuk Act by the end of the month, setting the stage for the country’s maiden issuance before the end of the fiscal year in June. Officials have previously suggested it could be in the c. USD 2 bn range. The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) and Al Azhar are working with the ministry on the regulations, which were previously expected to be issued by November last year.

Also approved yesterday:

• A presidential decision to reallocate some areas of state-owned land to the General Authority for Reconstruction and Agricultural Development in Assiut, Minya, and Beni Suef to be used in various development projects. The land was previously held by the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA). Meanwhile, several plots of state-owned land in Assiut and Minya have been allocated to the NREA for solar and wind projects.
• A presidential decision to add USD 28.3 mn to the Assistance Grant Agreement between Egypt and the US, to bring the total amount of the grant to USD 155.9 mn, which will go towards supporting MSMEs and entrepreneurship, as well as technical vocational education, training and workforce development.

The Health Ministry reported 1,379 new covid-19 infections yesterday, up from 1,303 the day before. Egypt has now disclosed a total of 403,990 confirmed cases of covid-19. The ministry also reported 33 new deaths, bringing the country’s total death toll to 22,238.

Omicron taking hold? There has been an “increase in the prevalence” of omicron in Egypt between November and January, a Health Ministry statement reported interim minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar as saying during yesterday’s weekly cabinet meeting, without disclosing further details. Since its discovery in late November, the ministry has provided little information on omicron’s presence in Egypt, making it hard to gauge to what extent the variant is responsible for the italia-meds.com in cases.

Egypt generated a EGP 3.2 bn primary surplus in 1H2021-2022, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said during the weekly cabinet meeting yesterday. The surplus came on the back of an increase in tax revenues, which rose 16% y-o-y, the minister said.

The surplus is down on an annual basis, but it’s still a surplus: The surplus is down 77% on the same period last fiscal year, but marks a positive shift from where we stood in the first quarter of the fiscal year, when the primary balance fell into a slight deficit, while the overall deficit widened.

Is the surplus on track with expectations? The Finance Ministry expects the primary surplus to increase to 1.5% of GDP this fiscal year, from 0.9% in FY 2020-2021. We won’t know how we fared in 1H2021-2022 in relation to that forecast until GDP figures are released for the second quarter. GDP growth hit 9.8% in the first quarter of FY2021-2022, and is expected to record 6-7% in the second quarter, Planning Minister Hala El Said has said.

The budget deficit won’t shrink as much as previously hoped: The budget deficit is now expected to stand at 6.9% by the end of FY2021-2022, after the ministry revised upwards its prior forecast of 6.7% on the basis of the first-half data. The deficit narrowed from 8.0% to 7.4% last fiscal year, and is targeted to fall to 6.1% in FY 2022-2023.

Public investment increased 12% y-o-y to EGP 82 bn in 1H2021-2022, with the biggest increases to spending on premiums paid to pension funds (up 77%), health (up 30.4%), and education (up 21.1%). Spending on state pensions and the Takaful and Karama programs was up 10.7%, while spending on salaries also increased by 10.4% as the new EGP 2.4k public sector minimum wage came into effect. The pandemic also saw spending on meds triple to hit EGP 9.2 bn.

Silence on debt repayments: Maait didn’t disclose how much the government spent on servicing its debts, which is the single-biggest cost to the public purse. Official figures (pdf) show that interest payments alone accounted for 41% of all expenditure during 1Q 2021-2022. The ministry expects to spend EGP 579.6 bn on interest during the course of the year, amounting to almost a third of total expenditure.

Aldar Group CEO Talal Shaffique Abdullah Al Dhiyebi (LinkedIn) will become SODIC’s new chairman after being voted in by the board Tuesday, replacing Osama Saleh who will now serve as deputy chairman, the company announced in an EGX disclosure (pdf) following the new board of directors’ first meeting on Tuesday. Our friend Magued Sherif (LinkedIn) will remain managing director of the company.

Reminder: The formation of the new board came after the Emirati consortium of real estate giant Aldar Properties and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ in December acquired 85.5% of SODIC in an allcash, EGP 6.1 bn transaction. The new structure sees five representatives from Aldar on the board, and two other spots taken up by representatives from ADQ’s Gamma Forge. In addition to Sherif, and Saleh, Masar Chairwoman and CEO — and former investment minister — Dalia Khorshed rounds out the board as an independent director.

KUDOS- EFG Hermes Pakistan was named best international brokerage firm for the first time in the 2021 Asiamoney Brokers Poll, the firm announced in a statement. The EFG Hermes subsidiary was also named the third-best brokerage for research, sales, corporate access, and execution in the poll, in which 5.7k representatives of institutional investment firms took part. “The recognition that the team in Pakistan has garnered in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll is a true testament to the kind of foothold that EFG Hermes has been able to attain,” our friend Ali Khalpey, EFG Hermes Frontier CEO, said.

The 12.5% hike to the minimum wage announced on Tuesday continued to dominate the airwaves on a quiet night last night. The monthly minimum wage paid to public sector workers will rise to EGP 2.7k from July on the instruction of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, who also directed that 30k new teachers be hired annually for the next five years.

The minimum wage hike will cost the state treasury around EGP 45 bn, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said in yesterday’s Cabinet meeting. Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 1:29) and Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 6:16 | 3:33) had coverage.

It’s a pleasantly quiet news day for Egypt in the international press.

IN BUSINESS NEWS- Our friends at Kashat, the country’s first nano-financial services provider, get a shout-out in Forbes, where they’re name-checked in a piece on whether artificial intelligence is destroying or disrupting jobs. Their take: “With the introduction of AI, new skills have been introduced into the underwriting process [in a labor-intensive industry] in order to serve at scale, while enabling employees to further expand their skillset and become even more valuable in the future.”

MEANWHILE- The UAE’s the National picked up on opposition to the planned removal of some 2k tombs in Cairo’s City of the Dead to make way for a motorway. And we’re spending EGP bns to promote and preserve antiquities: “We are paying like we never paid before to preserve our heritage,” the same outlet reports Tourism and Antiquities Minister Khaled El Enany as saying on Tuesday

Hitachi Energy will provide the equipment to connect Vestas’ 250 MW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez to the national grid, it said in a statement (pdf) yesterday. The 70-turbine farm will generate 1 TWh of energy each year when operational. The New and Renewable Energy Authority signed an EGP 4.3 bn agreement with a consortium led by Denmark’sVestas in summer 2020. It was said at the time that the plant would take 35 months to construct.

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• Fund administrator Servfund plans to establish an EGP 2 bn investment fund for non-banking financial services including consumer financing and financial leasing.
• Tripadvisor has named Hurghada the 10th most popular travel destination worldwide in its 2022 Travellers’ Choice Awards, while Cairo made the #2 spot on its 2022 top trending destinations list.
• Delemar Aluminum will open three new factories worth a total EGP 450 mn in 6th of October City’s industrial zone this year, with a first phase set to start operations in March. The company is among the largest producers of extruded aluminum products in Egypt and the wider region.
• Athlete found dead in Kafr El Sheikh: The 21-year-old former speedball world champion Rawan El Hussein was found dead on a rooftop in Kafr El Sheikh. Police are treating it as a murder and have made an arrest.

The UAE and Turkey signed a USD 4.9 bn, three-year currency swap agreement yesterday in a bid to prop up dwindling Turkish FX reserves, adding to similar agreements with Qatar, South Korea and China, Bloomberg reports. Turkey has been selling record amounts of USD to support its crashing currency — which lost 40% of its value last month alone. The agreement cements the new friendship between the two countries, after the UAE signed agreements with Turkey for bns of USD of investments last November to help stabilize the TRY.

Also worth knowing this morning:

• Is the party finally over for Boris Johnson? Pressure is escalating on the British prime minister to resign — or else risk being pushed out of power by his own MPs — as outrage over Downing Street lockdown parties refuses to dissipate, Reuters reports
• Yesterday’s pre-dawn demolition of a disputed property in east Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah by Israeli police has set off local protests and drawn international criticism, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas calling it a “war crime,” AP reports.

Mohamed El Feky, founder and CEO of Sympl: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Mohamed El Feky (LinkedIn), founder and CEO of consumer finance player Sympl and, previously, part of the team that helped create EFG Hermes’ valU. Edited excerpts from our conversation follow:

My name is Mohamed El Feky, I am originally an engineer, but I’ve never worked in the field. I’ve always been fascinated with marketing and sales and, over the years, I developed a passion for it. I did a marketing diploma and later an MBA in marketing and spent 20 years in corporate life, 11-12 of which were in the banking sector. It wasn’t planned at all, but I ended up in this industry. I moved around a lot between banks, doing roles in product development and segment management.

We don't acquire the customer, we acquire the purchase. Many customers have the money and the need, but they don’t have to pay it all at once in this single transaction. This was especially true after the pandemic, when we all went to a phase of uncertainty. So what Sympl tries to do is give customers control over their spending by approaching them at checkout and offering the pay later option. They’ve already made their decision about what they want to buy, so we give them the option of how to pay it off depending on their employment status and how they are paid.

Right now, my morning routine revolves around work and numbers and responding to emails. I stopped having a personal daily routine when I quit my banking job. I used to have a morning routine and go for a jog before going to the office, but this stopped six or seven years ago. It is not good, but it happened.

My responsibilities include managing the team, making sure that we have the right calibers for the model and for the challenge. In a startup, you need people who believe in value creation, people who want to disrupt the market. I’m not looking for typical employees who are looking for a 9-5 job, so it’s all about the team and how they can work in sync together. I work very hard to make sure that they are compatible to avoid disputes or conflicts. Secondly, I give a lot of attention to our marketing services and I usually respond personally to customers on social media because their voice is very important to me.

The easiest part of my job is staying focused and organized — I think this comes easy to me because I’m an engineer, so I’m already very structured. The challenge is that not everyone else understands or appreciates what it means to be organized. It means that you are sequential, you don’t make impulsive decisions, which some people see as a waste of time, so I have to put in extra time and effort to educate them on why we have to follow this route.

I like going to the sea to relax and switch off. Sitting on the beach is my ultimate goal. That would be my retirement plan. I wouldn’t even mind being a beach boy. Anything that brings me closer to the sea is very fulfilling. On a day-to-day basis, I like listening to Omm Kolthoum concerts on Rotana Classic at 10pm. If I manage to go home early, I like to watch black-and-white Egyptian movies.

I don’t usually watch TV shows because I like to start and finish things in one sitting, but during the pandemic I watched the Good Doctor and I really liked it.

On a personal level, after making sure that the company is going well, I’d like to give more time to my kids, because I only see them once or twice a week right now. On a professional level, if this company is successful, I’d like to help other young people who have ideas but don't have funding or connections to realize their dreams. I do it now informally, so people send me messages over LinkedIn asking me about certain things, but I want it to be much more structured so that they can feel the return.

I was very fortunate to meet a lot of good people in my life, so I borrowed bits and pieces of advice from everyone. But the main piece of advice that I would share with others is to say yes to the things that God gives you and not to overthink things. You can think things while you’re in the experience itself.