It’s interest rate day, and the CBE looks set to leave things on hold as Fed signals it could bump rates in 2023

Good morning, friends, and a very happy THURSDAY to you all. The big news today is that it’s interest rate day as the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to review rates. There’s a firm consensus among analysts and economists we surveyed last week that policymakers will leave rates unchanged after inflation ticked upward in May.

Surely weighing on their thinking: The US Federal Reserve has signaled it could hike interest rates twice in 2023, ahead of its earlier forecast. We have more on that below. Any move to hike rates by the Fed will have implications for carry trades across emerging markets.

Where rates currently stand: The overnight deposit rate is at 8.25% and the lending rate 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are at 8.75%. Look for an announcement late this afternoon.

MEANWHILE- The EFG Hermes and Saudi Exchange Virtual Investor Conference (pdf) wraps up today. The event sees execs from 61 companies meeting with more than 450 international investors from over 190 institutions.

Remember that export credit risk guarantee company we heard about way back in November 2019? Well, the plans have apparently been dusted off and the wheels set in motion for the company to launch in the next two months, a Central Bank of Egypt advisor has reportedly said, according to Al Shorouk. The USD 600 mn company will be 100% owned by the central bank and will be dedicated specifically to increasing Egyptian exports to other African countries.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Biden v Putin is the biggest story in the pages of the foreign press this morning. The Swiss summit didn’t quite turn out to be The Great Confrontation that some in the Western press were longing for, with both leaders exchanging pleasantries — and agreeing to return diplomats to their respective embassies and dial back diplomatic tensions. All the same, stark differences remain on display, as little progress was made on issues including cybersecurity and human rights. Everyone from the AP and Reuters to the NYT and RT as the news.

***CATCH UP QUICK with the top stories from yesterday’s edition of EnterprisePM:

• NBE, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire to launch EGP 1 bn fund of funds targeting SMEs: The fund plans to invest in SMEs in healthcare, education, fintech, agribusiness, renewables, fast-moving consumer goods as well as information and communications technology, a BdC source told Enterprise.
• Flat6Labs hits first close on USD 20 mn Jordan fund: Flat6Labs has reached a USD 7.4 mn first close on a USD 20 mn seed fund targeting companies in Jordan that will invest in early-stage startups in ICT, education, healthcare, and other sectors.
• Liwwa to invest portion of USD 3 mn pre-series funding in expanding SME business in Egypt: The company has so far raised USD 1.3 mn of its USD 3 mn equity target, part of which will go towards obtaining an SME lending license in Egypt, expanding the business, and growing its tech team.

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MARKET WATCH- Fed signals earlier than expected rate hike: The Federal Reserve could move to hike interest rates twice in 2023 as the US economic recovery accelerates and inflation rises. The central bank announced that its main interest rate would remain unchanged at 0-0.25% following the end of its two-day policy meeting yesterday, but gave no indication about when it could start unwinding its huge USD 120 bn per month bond-buying programme.

Is inflation giving the Fed cold feet? Federal Reserve officials seem to have shifted from their stance in March, when they indicated that rates would remain ultra low until 2024. “This change in stance jars a little with the Fed’s recent claims that the recent spike in inflation is temporary,” one economist told CNBC. The earlier than forecast rate hike comes as new projections predict that inflation will rise by more than previously thought. Though the central bank reiterated its belief that higher prices will be “transitory,” Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged during his presser yesterday that there is a risk that inflation will accelerate beyond current expectations.

Action to support short-term funding markets: Policymakers moved to raise short-term interest rates in the funding markets amid concern that a USD shortage could push yields into negative territory and trigger a funding crisis among money market funds, according to Bloomberg.

The market wasn’t overjoyed at any of this: The news triggered a sharp sell-off in the treasury market, with the yield on five-year notes jumping more than 0.12% and the 10-year rate up 0.08%, and caused the USD to gain 0.8% against other major currencies. US stocks fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, the Nasdaq 0.3% lower and the Dow 0.8% in the red.

Asian markets are are in largely in the red this morning, with only Shanghai (barely) clinging to the green. Futures suggest key indexes will open in the red on Wall Street, on Bay Street and in much of Europe later today.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved an EUR 83 mn loan to support the development of Egypt’s power infrastructure, the multilateral lender said in a statement. The money will help to finance the second phase of the Electricity and Green Growth Support Program (pdf), an initiative designed to improve the finances of public sector electricity bodies, increase private sector participation in power infrastructure, and promote green energy sources and energy efficiency. The French development agency AFD and Japan’s JICA are also providing Egypt with some loans for the program, the bank said.

The first EUR 225 mn phase of the EUR 450 mn program finishes at the end of this month. The initial phase was agreed with the government last year and has spanned FY2020-2021. Money allocated in the first phase has supported the electricity sector to revise tariffs, pay down debts, award competitive contracts to private firms, increase the usage of small-scale solar PV plants, and set new national energy efficiency targets.

The second phase begins in July: It will provide further support to the government on electricity tariffs, a new procurement framework for the electricity sector, and new units in several government ministries dedicated to improving energy efficiency.

 

CORRECTED ON 17 June 2021

Typo in the headline amended to reflect the actual funding signed.

The US really wants us to go solar: The US will step up funding to Egypt to accelerate our shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy, US climate envoy John Kerry told reporters following his meeting with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in Cairo yesterday, the Associated Press reports. Egypt is “blessed to be the number one country in the world” to use solar energy, Kerry said, adding that going all in on renewables would be a boon for job creation. Kerry also met with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad during his visit, the US State Department said in a statement, without disclosing further details.

Egypt already has one of the world’s largest solar facilities in the 1.65 GW Benban solar park, which helped the country to produce 3.65 GWh of solar energy in FY2019-2020. And the government is in talks with investors to launch new solar and wind projects that will generate some 2 GW of combined power.

But the country is still heavily reliant on hydrocarbons to meet its energy needs: Renewable sources only accounted for 3.4% of the country’s energy mix in 2019. Electricity produced from natural gas alone is estimated to account for 70-75% of our energy mix in the latter half of the previous decade.

Any new funding would help the Egyptian government meet its targets for renewables, including increasing the supply of electricity generated from renewable sources to 20% by 2022 and 42% by 2035, with the private sector expected to deliver most of this capacity.

State grain buyer GASC is allowing wheat suppliers to submit bids to ship the grain under a new amendment to the tender book for international wheat purchases, according to a document seen by Reuters.

In detail: All suppliers can now bid directly to GASC, and can submit their guarantees to the government body regulating the import of crops. Previously only traders with freight carriers registered with the Egyptian Company for Maritime Transport were permitted to present shipping offers. The decision, taken by the Supply Ministry, will be effective as of GASC’s next tender.

What’s the rationale? The move is designed to lower freight rates, which have climbed in recent weeks as oil prices have increased, a source at the Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage told Enterprise. On Tuesday GASC called off an international wheat tender in which it received only three offers, reportedly due to expensive freight rates.

But this may not solve the problem: "[This change] doesn't solve their immediate problem which is high freight rates,” one Egyptian trader said. The fluctuation of oil prices will in large part determine the cost of shipping. “By the next tender oil could be up which will make [freight] more expensive, or by chance it could be down and freight will be lower," said another trader.

That’s not to say the amendment won’t make some impact: The change should address the lack of available vessels. “I think it will give more suppliers a better chance and will increase overall freight competition, which is ultimately for the good of Egypt,” another trader said.

The new amendment is unlikely to benefit wheat sellers, who may be unwilling to provide ships as well, but large trading houses with freight departments may benefit, a European trader said.

Egypt will start testing China’s E70 EV cars next month ahead of launching an assembled-in-Egypt E70 in 2022: State-owned El Nasr Automotive has imported 13 E70 electric passenger cars from China and will begin testing them on Egyptian roads from the beginning of next month, the Public Enterprises Ministry said in a statement. The tests, most of which will be handled by Uber drivers, will last for three months and come as the government prepares to begin locally producing the vehicles through El Nasr next year.

El Nasr plans to locally assemble the first 100 EVs by July-August 2022, Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik said in a phone-in to Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 2:30) last night. This comes as part of two agreements the state-owned company had signed in January with China’s Dongfeng to locally assemble EVs as well as to rehabilitate a mothballed El Nasr plant, which will have three production lines for the vehicles. Each car will cost between EGP 290k-400k, the minister said (watch, runtime: 1:27).

The first El Nasr-Dongfeng EV should be ready to hit the road by September 2022, Tawfik said. This is at least a quarter later than previously thought, with earlier local press reports quoting El Nasr managing director Hany El Kholy as saying the cars will be ready in 1Q2022.

Development of infrastructure + charging stations is already underway: The government wants to see 3k charging stations installed over the next three years, in addition to establishing electric vehicle parking and charging stations in shopping center garages and the Tahrir and Ramsis garages. Industry leader Infinity has set up 130 charging points across the country and will roll out 100s more in the coming years, and including Schneider Electric are also looking to get in on the action. Hassan Allam Holding have also joined forces with some EV charging stations providers to carry out infrastructure work for some charging stations across the country, the statement said, but did not name these companies nor specify the number or locations of the stations.

As many as 40 mn doses of locally manufactured Sinovac vaccines could be produced by the end of the year, Health Minister Hala Zayed said in a statement yesterday. Zayed has previously said that 3 mn Sinovac doses will be produced in June

We were expecting the first vaccines to be ready by 15 June, but the health minister said yesterday that they will now be ready in “days.” Vacsera, the state-owned agency in charge of manufacturing the vaccines, has said that the first batch of vaccines will be made available in August after they have undergone testing and analysis.

The Health Ministry reported 606 new covid-19 infections yesterday, down from 609 the day before. Egypt has now disclosed a total of 275,010 confirmed cases of covid-19. The ministry also reported 32 new deaths, bringing the country’s total death toll to 15,723.

The highly-transmissible delta variant of covid-19, first found in India, has now been detected over 80 nations, and is continuing its mutation into a more virulent version called the “delta plus” variant, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) has said, CNBC reported. Having already designated the delta variant as a variant of concern in May, WHO is already monitoring some 50 different variants of the virus, while recently adding another “lambda” variant to the list. The newly-detected variant is also highly mutable, which could impact its transmissibility, but more research is still required to understand its outgrowth.

EFG Hermes consumer finance subsidiary valU took home a nod from Entrepreneur Middle East’s 2021 fintech awards, the company said in a press release (pdf). The consumer finance platform was recognized for its strong performance, having more than tripled in size during 2020. EFG subsidiary PayTabs Egypt, meanwhile, has been recognized as best e-payment solution in MENA, the firm said in a statement (pdf).

Filmmaker Sameh Alaa has been named on the jury for a short film competition at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. The Egyptian director will join the six-member panel to judge the victor of the short films and the Cinéfondation film school competition.

El Nasr Auto’s plans to produce Chinese EVs was the big news of last night, after the Public Enterprises Ministry announced that it would import 13 cars to begin road tests ahead of the manufacturing process. Among those who took note: Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 20:07) and Yahduth fi Masr (watch, runtime: 10:12 | 2:53). We have more on the story in this morning’s news well above.

Also getting airtime: The Egypt-made Sinovac shots, after the Health Ministry yesterday said it would move ahead to locally manufacture as many as 40 mn doses of the vaccine over the upcoming six months. Vacsera was initially due to produce the first batch of the jab as early as Tuesday, but the state-owned vaccine manufacturer is apparently running slightly late in production as Health Ministry spokesperson Khaled Megahed told Masaa DMC last night that production is still ongoing and is expected to finish in the coming “few” days (watch, runtime: 10:46). The shots will then undergo a final analysis before their dispatch to clinics — a process that should only take a couple of weeks, he said.

The 40 mn-dose target is important to Egypt: Achieving it will prove to the world Egypt has sufficient vaccines to protect its people from covid, and after Vacsera’s production plants obtain international certification from the World Health Organization (WHO), we would then be able to share locally-manufactured vaccines with countries through the Gavi / Covax facility, Megahed said.

There’s not a lot going on in the foreign press this morning: The Ever Given is getting yet more column inches, the Financial Times is running a feature on Cairo’s tentmakers’ bazaar, and the National reports on an environmental initiative that allows Nile fishermen to exchange plastic waste for money.

Orange Egypt will provide smart technology for SODIC’s real estate projects under the terms of a recently signed agreement, the real estate company said in a statement (pdf) yesterday. These include faster “triple play” broadband, internet protocol television, supporting internet of things devices, and other smart home solutions.

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• Egyptian-American wealth advisor Laila Pence’s US-based Pence Wealth Management could help the EGX (pdf) drum up foreign investor interest, and potentially give Egyptians and non-Egyptians abroad access to our stock exchange.
• The Egyptian Junior Businessmen Association (EJB) has launched its African Junior Business Initiative to support investment in African SMEs through an online platform that aims to more clearly highlight investment potential in the region.

IN DIPLOMACY- Egypt will continue to work towards a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said yesterday, as Israel’s new coalition government ordered fresh airstrikes on Gaza in response to incendiary balloons allegedly released by Hamas into southern Israel. Egypt was the key broker of a ceasefire in the 11-day conflict between Israel and Hamas last month. The New York Times and the Financial Times have the story.

US citizens could soon be allowed to travel to Europe after European Union (EU) members agreed to gradually lift their tourism ban on travellers coming from the states, the Associated Press reports. The non-binding recommendation is set to be formalized on Friday, though individual countries in the bloc will likely retain the right to impose additional entry requirements. All EU countries are expected to start using the joint covid-19 digital travel certificate system as of 1 July, though non-EU citizens are currently not eligible to obtain one.

The Tokyo Olympics might need a public bailout to the tune of USD 800 mn if the games go on without public spectators, according to a Financial Times analysis of the olympic committee’s balance sheet. The organizing committee has yet to make a final decision on audience capacity at this year’s games which have been slated to begin on 23 July. If public health officials in the country — who have been pushing for a complete ban on spectators — get their way, the committee may be faced with no option other than a taxpayer-funded bailout to cover the cost of the competition.

Ola El Dib, country manager for Lenovo Egypt and the Levant: Each week, my Morning / WFH Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Ola El Dib, country manager for Lenovo Egypt and the Levant (LinkedIn).

My name is Ola El Dib. I'm the country manager for Lenovo Egypt and the Levant and a daughter, mother and wife. I’ve been with Lenovo for the past decade and moved into my current position two and a half years ago. The bulk of my career has been spent working at different IT companies in Egypt and the Levant after a brief stint at the Culture Ministry.

I’m responsible for leading and developing the Lenovo brand across the region. I oversee sales and operations in all our commercial, consumer, SMB and tablet segments. Lenovo is a USD 60 bn Fortune 500 company with 63k employees in 180 countries around the world. Our goal is to deliver smarter technology for all.

Egypt is a very important market for us. It's one of the top four markets in the MENA region. We had a great 4Q2020 where we reached almost 32% in overall market share across all our segments. In commercial and consumer electronics sales Lenovo holds the top position in terms of market share. Our tablets also hold more than 43% market share — they’re our single highest growth segment.

There’s a big digital transformation happening in the world of work. We’ve been going into the office at 50% capacity for most of the past year and continue to work at that same 50-50 split. We never fully shut down our offices here because we believe that coming into the office is very important to maintaining a culture of collaboration. But we were well prepared with the right infrastructure to have a flexible work schedule before the pandemic hit. I think businesses will be glad to accommodate this set up for the sake of employee engagement and attracting new talent.

Over the past year I’ve learned not to take anything for granted and focus on becoming a more balanced person. We saw the importance of having a team around us and being very well connected, not only during working hours but maintaining a balanced relationship with our team and our people.

I only sleep for five or six hours a day. I usually wake up around 7 am and start my day with prayers and checking in on my family. I start my work day at 8:30 am by checking my calendar and setting the schedule for the day. Mornings are usually a very busy time for me. When I walk into the office I check in with my staff and get through some emails. The first half of my day is generally focused on sales, and in the afternoon I’m looking at operations. I generally leave the office at 6 or 7 pm.

I make sure to stay up to date with emails or outstanding issues from work before I go to sleep so that I’ve cleared my schedule for the next day and left no team members waiting on unaddressed issues from my end.

When I’m not working I love shopping, cooking and reading. If I'm not shopping, then I’m staying up to date with fashion pages on instagram or cooking unconventional meals. I also like to read books on self-development and psychology. Sometimes I like to wind down by cruising in my car and listening to the Quran or whatever is on 87.8 fm.

Having studied French literature in university, I’m more familiar with French books. Le Rouge et Le Noir by Stendhal and Les Miserables by Victor Hugo are my favorites. Otherwise, Love in the Time of Cholera by Gabriel Garcia Marquez is one of my favorite books of all time. Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap and Others Don't by Jim Collins is up there too.

IT used to be a very male-dominated industry. There weren’t very many women around when I first got into working in IT, but a lot has changed since then. There are way more women in the field now. I’d say 50% of our operations and administrative employees are women who are doing a great job.

The culture at the company allows everyone the chance to grow. To support women in the workplace, Lenovo has a mentorship program called Women in Lenovo Leadership. I’ve been part of their program for the past five years where I get to professionally guide my colleagues and help them advance in their careers.

I've learned over the past year that being alone doesn't mean being lonely. If you’re alone at home or elsewhere you can stay connected and motivated if you have the right people around you. Being honest to yourself and the people around you is key to being successful.

(xxMI) An extraordinarily tall brother and sister in Egypt have claimed five Guinness World Records for categories such as widest arm span, largest feet, and largest hands. The two are believed to have a benign tumour in their pituitary glands that is causing excessive production of growth hormones. Mohamed and Huda Shehata are still getting taller and might need to undergo surgery to stop their growth.

14-17 June (Monday-Thursday): The EFG Hermes and Saudi Exchange Virtual Investor Conference.

17 June (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

17-20 June (Thursday-Sunday): The International Exhibition of Materials and Technologies for Finishing and Construction (Turnkey Expo), Cairo International Conference Center.

20 June (Sunday): Ismailia Economic Court to hold hearing on Ever Given compensation case.

20 June (Sunday): Deadline for Enpact + Tui + GIZ tourism recovery program (pdf).

22-27 June (Tuesday-Sunday): The CIB PSA World Tour Finals for 2020-2021 will take place in Cairo.

24 June (Thursday): End of the 2020-2021 academic year (public schools).

26-29 June (Saturday-Tuesday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Cairo International Convention Center, Cairo, Egypt. The Big 5 Egypt Impact Awards will also be taking place at the event on 27 June.

30 June (Wednesday): The IMF will complete a second review of targets set under the USD 5.2 bn standby loan approved in June 2020 (proposed date).

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

30 June- 15 July: The Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

July + August: Thanaweya Amma exams take place.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

1 July (Thursday): Businesses importing goods at seaports will need to file shipping documents and cargo data digitally to the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system.

15 June (Saturday): EGX-listed will have to complete filing their financial disclosures for the period ended 31 March.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday).

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

2-4 August (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt is hosting the Africa Food Manufacturing exhibition at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

12-15 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Sahara Expo: the 33rd International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

14-16 February 2022 (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

1H2022: The World Economic Forum annual meeting, location TBD.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.