FTSE Russell index inclusion could bring USD 4 bn into local bonds, says FinMin

Good morning ladies and gents — and that’s almost a wrap on another busy week of news in Om El Donia.

But before we kick back for the weekend, we have the small matter of May’s inflation figures, which should be out this morning. The release, coming just a week before the MPC meeting, may be instructive as to what the central bank may do with interest rates a week today. Whether we see another unexpected slowdown akin to last month or whether the global rise in commodity prices finally begins to seep into the Egyptian economy may be the difference between a cut and a hold. We’ll be out with our usual interest rate poll ahead of the MPC meeting next week, and look for coverage on inflation in this afternoon’s PM edition.

WHAT ELSE IS HAPPENING TODAY-

Manufacturers may be in line for a property tax break: A proposal to move forward with a plan to calculate property taxes on factories based on the construction cost rather than market value is set to be discussed during a meeting of cabinet’s economic group later today. It comes amid calls from manufacturers and exporters to scrap the real estate tax on factories altogether.

Also on the agenda: Look for a more favorable timeline for businesses to remit value added taxes (VAT), and measures to reduce the time needed for goods to be released from ports.

***CATCH UP QUICK with the top stories from yesterday’s edition of EnterprisePM:

• Manufacturing galore: Ain Sokhna could be home to a new Polish industrial zone spanning up to 1 mn sqm, while Elaraby Group plans to establish in 2022 an industrial complex for household appliances.
• Post-covid business climate isn’t getting any better, but firms remain hopeful: The ECES’ business barometer stayed unchanged from the previous quarter at 47.0 in 3Q2020-2021, three points below a 50.0 “neutral level,” but things are set to improve this quarter.
• We’re a bit closer to landing a USD 400 mn World Bank loan: The facility, which would help support the rollout of the Sisi administration’s national health ins. system, was approved by the House Health Committee.

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THE BIG STORY INTERNATIONALLY #1: The 2021 G7 summit kicks off in the UK tomorrow — and we’re already getting an idea about what to expect. The seven wealthy nations that make up the group will pledge to ship at least 1 bn extra shots of covid vaccines to developing countries over the next year, according to a draft communique seen by Bloomberg.

Half of this may be coming from the US, which will apparently purchase 500 mn more doses of the Pfizer vaccine and distribute it to developing countries through the Gavi / Covax scheme, a source told the Associated Press yesterday.

Also from Bloomberg on the G7:

• Climate: Expect an announcement on new funding for green projects in developing countries, and a statement on electric cars;
• Pressure on China + Russia: The countries will apparently look to ramp up pressure on Beijing by calling for a new enquiry into the origins of covid and Moscow over its alleged involvement in recent cyberattacks;
• The glaring omission: Notably, there’s no mention of last week’s corporate tax pact, that saw G7 countries reach a preliminary agreement about introducing a minimum global tax on multinationals.

THE BIG STORY INTERNATIONALLY #2: El Salvador is embarking on a wild experiment: El Salvador has become the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender after its parliament passed legislation yesterday that paves the way for goods to be bought, taxes to be paid and loans to be issued using the highly-volatile digital asset. The bill, brought to MPs earlier this week by the country’s president, will require businesses to accept BTC as payment in the next 90 days, while maintaining the USD as legal tender. Eagerly showing off his laser eyes on Twitter, President Nayib Bukele said crypto would “bring financial inclusion, investment, tourism, innovation and economic development” for the central American country.

The story dominated the global press for much of yesterday, with everyone from Reuters and Bloomberg to the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal giving the news digital ink.

Other stories worth your attention this morning:

• In a further demonstration of how difficult a global corporate tax pact is going to be to agree…: The UK is now demanding that the City of London get a pass from the G7’s plans to introduce a minimum global corporate tax rate, just a few days after signing onto the accord. (Financial Times)
• US plans anti-China tech splurge + Trump TikTok ban dropped: New legislation approved by the US Senate to counter the ascendancy of Chinese tech would unlock USD 250 bn for developing US technology and research. This came as the Biden administration revoked Trump-era orders to ban Chinese apps TikTok + WeChat from the US. (Reuters | AP)
• Alexa, how do I beat an antitrust lawsuit? European regulators may seek to curb the market power of voice assistants such as Apple’s Siri, Alphabet’s Google Assistant and Amazon’s Alexa, after a year-long inquiry found evidence of anti-competitive practices by the tech firms. (Reuters)

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Central Bank of Egypt will meet Thursday, 17 June to review rates.

The Entering African Markets exporter training program continues today, according to a press release (pdf). The program was launched by the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation in cooperation with the Egyptian Export Development Authority.

Egypt is hosting the first forum of the heads of African investment promotion agencies from 11-14 June in Sharm El Sheikh under the theme “Integration for Growth,” according to a cabinet statement. Ministers and heads of investment agencies from 34 African countries are expected to attend.

SMEs in the tourism sector have until 20 June to apply for the six-month Tourism Recovery Program launched by Enpact and the TUI Care Foundation and supported by GIZ, according to a press release (pdf). Some 100 small firms will be given direct support to the tune of EUR 9k each. The program also aims to create an international network of tourism business to expand cooperation between Egypt, Germany, and other European countries. You can apply here.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

The Finance Ministry is expecting an additional USD 4 bn in foreign inflows into Egyptian debt on the back of Egypt’s inclusion in the FTSE Russell’s new frontier-market sovereign bond index, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said in a statement yesterday. The British index provider yesterday launched its Frontier Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Series, naming Egypt as one of the 13 countries included on the USD 414 bn index.

If accurate, this would make the FTSE Russell a significantly more lucrative source of foreign currency than the JPMorgan EM bond index, which is expected to bring in USD 1.4-2.2 bn into Egyptian debt should the investment bank reinclude Egypt on the index later this year.

Inclusion is a sign that economic reforms are paying off, says Maait: Inclusion in the index, which tracks local currency bonds issued in frontier markets, reflects efforts taken to lower public debt and improve Egypt’s credentials among emerging market peers with the ongoing economic reforms, the minister said.

More on the index: By quantity, EGP bonds have a weighting of c. 13.6%, but a country-capped index means that Egypt can only have a maximum weight of 10%. Bangladesh, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Ukraine and Vietnam are also included. Inclusion in the index will be reviewed semi-annually in March and September.

Egyptian VC outfit 138 Pyramids will set up an SME-focused private equity company after it yesterday got the go-ahead from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), Chairman Nevine El Tahri told us, confirming a local press report. The Pyramid Private Equity Company will be established with EGP 10 mn in initial capital, and will invest in local SME manufacturers and exporters with annual revenues as low as EGP 50 mn.

Who owns what? 138 Pyramids is a limited partner in the company and Egypt-based investment management firm Delta Inspire, which will manage the firm, is a general partner, El Tahri said, without disclosing the precise equity split.

Another EGP 990 mn to go: Pyramid Private Equity wants to have deployed EGP 1 bn by 2024, and wants to bring financial institutions into the fold to become partners and ramp up investments, El Tahri tells us, without going into further details.

Board members include: El Tahri, who’s also 138 Pyramids founder and board member of the Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE), Misr Financial Investments Managing Director Khalil El Bawab, Marketing Mix founder Randa Abdo, and former development minister and former head of the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) Ahmed Darwish.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is set to lend QNB Al Ahli USD 50 mn to on-lend to green and renewable energy projects, pending approval on 14 July, according to the bank’s website. The loan — USD 7.5 mn of which will be financed by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) — will channel funds to SMEs and individual households for green projects and “high performance technologies” designed to deliver a greener economy. Borrowers in diverse sectors such as residential, agribusiness, industrial, commercial and service sectors will receive funds.

This is the second green EBRD loan we’ve heard about this month, after it green-lit a USD 100 mn loan to the National Bank of Egypt to on-lend to green projects.

The EBRD, in its own words: We recently sat down with EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso + SEMED Managing Director Heike Harmgart to talk about all things green economy in Egypt.

EGX-listed corporate bonds are now eligible for intraday trading under a decision published yesterday by the Financial Regulatory Authority that aims to buoy the secondary bond market. The decision will allow clearing house MCDR to settle transactions after the end of the trading day at the latest.

The decision comes after financial institutions and asset managers lobbied the authority, arguing that this will encourage more frequent, smaller bond trades in the secondary market.

Developing Egypt’s secondary bond market has been a priority for regulators as of late: In a move designed to encourage traders to participate more in the bond market, the FRA in April required bond issuers to allocate at least 10% of issuances to retail investors. Amateur traders were also exempted from the minimum buy-in.

Other decisions announced by the FRA yesterday, include:

• Lifting all restrictions on products and services eligible for consumer financing;
• Extending the deadline for companies listed on the EGX but are yet to kick off a share placement to 31 December from 30 September this year; and
• New regulations for funds operating in Egypt to report their purchases and sales of assets with their quarterly financial statements.

Proposed Tenth of Ramadan PPP project gets final cabinet approval: A public-private partnership model under which the government will move forward with a tender to establish the Tenth of Ramadan City dry port and logistics hub was greenlit during the weekly cabinet meeting yesterday, according to a statement. Cabinet had given preliminary approval to the project last week, along with eight other PPP developments including new dry ports in Beni Suef, Sadat City and Borg El Arab.

Five consortia reportedly have their eyes set on the tender: Those include one led by Dubai’s DP World, one led by China International Marine Containers (CIMC) Group, and another comprising Elsewedy Electric and DB Schenker, among others.

Also approved in yesterday’s meeting:

• A EUR 145 mn financing agreement with the African Development Bank to improve rail safety in Egypt; and
• A decision to move ahead with a contract between the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company and Saudi’s Acwa Power to convert a 2.25 GW combined cycle electricity plant in Luxor to run only on renewable energy sources.

Twenty-five hotels and 17 restaurants in the Red Sea, South Sinai and Cairo governorates have been ordered to close for a week for breaching covid-19 regulations, the Tourism Ministry said yesterday. The businesses will also pay a EGP 4k fine after frontline staff were found not wearing face masks, and sanitizers and disinfectants were not available, Deputy Tourism Minister Abdel Fattah Al Assi told Yahduth fi Masr (watch, runtime: 4:27).

The Health Ministry reported 765 new covid-19 infections yesterday, down from 773 the day before. Egypt has now disclosed a total of 270,292 confirmed cases of covid-19. The ministry also reported 34 new deaths, bringing the country’s total death toll to 15,471.

Egypt and Sudan have again called for the international community to push Ethiopia to restart negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), as time runs out before Addis Ababa resumes filling the dam in the coming weeks. In a joint statement yesterday, the two countries warned of “serious risks and grave consequences” if Ethiopia continues to fill the dam without an agreement in place, and agreed to coordinate efforts “at the regional, continental and international levels to push Ethiopia to negotiate seriously." This came following a meeting in Khartoum between the Egyptian and Sudanese foreign and irrigation ministers.

Ethiopia is expected to resume filling the reservoir when the rainy season starts in July or August, and with African Union-led talks on hiatus and nobody stepping internationally to bolster mediation efforts tensions between the three countries are rising.

It’s not just the weather that dictates when Addis Ababa begins the filling though, as Arab Water Council President Mahmoud Abu Zeid reminded us last night. In a conversation on Yahduth fi Masr, Abu Zeid said that Ethiopia can only proceed with the filling after raising the GERD’s reservoir spillway by 30 meters — a procedure Addis Ababa is finding challenging (watch, runtime: 6:03). Ethiopia has so far managed to only raise as much as six meters of the spillway, which is not enough to hold the 13.5 bn cubic meters of water that is supposed be held after the second phase of the filling this summer, Abu Zeid said. Another analyst suggested that Ethiopia could wrap up the process by the end of June in time for the rains.

The news getting attention in the foreign press this morning: Reuters | Associated Press.

KUDOS- Henkel Egypt is taking part in GIZ’s ProGirls project to help girls explore new fields, such as science, technology, engineering and mathematics, the company said in a statement (pdf). Selected participants, accompanied by a Henkel employee, will be trained online or in-person during the summer vacation. The course will end on 11 October, which marks the “International Day of the Girl Child.”

Egyptian law firm Eldib & Co is now a member of China’s Chamber of International Commerce, just six months after it opened its first office in the country in Shanghai, it said in a statement.

It was politics as far as our eyes could see on the nation’s airwaves last night, as the talking heads picked up the statement on the GERD that followed Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry’s meeting in Khartoum yesterday. Yahduth fi Masr (watch, runtime: 2:26), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 2:42) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 2:55) all had covered on the FM’s visit and the Egypt-Sudan statement. We have the full story in this morning’s new well, above.

When should the three countries return to the negotiating table? Nothing is yet determined, but Ethiopia has persisted to go ahead with plans for the reservoir’s second filling with or without an agreement with downstream countries of the Nile. Former Sudanese member of the Nile Basin Commission Ahmed El Mufti told Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa that Egypt and Sudan should only return back to the negotiating table with Ethiopia when Addis Ababa pledges to not proceed with its planned filling until a binding agreement is reached between all parties involved (watch, runtime: 10:21), while former Assistant Foreign Minister Mohamed Hegazy said that an agreement with Ethiopia can still be reached as long as the second phase of the filling does not begin (watch, runtime: 1:41).

There’s more criticism in the foreign press this morning, this time coming from the LA Times, which follows the Guardian earlier this week in pointing out the differences in Biden’s campaign rhetoric on human rights and his administration’s relationship with the Egyptian government. This came on the same day that the state-owned Ahram Online published a rebuttal to a piece run in the Financial Times this week about the military’s role in the economy.

Also getting picked up internationally:

• Back to business in Libya: A number of Egyptian companies are eager to get back to business as usual in Libya as a new unity government and elections later this year raise hopes for an economic recovery. (Reuters)
• This Egyptian startup is disrupting the undertaking sector: Sokna offers a comprehensive funeral and burial service to clients, claiming to remove the logistical and bureaucratic burdens of burying loved ones. (Reuters)

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• Some 20% of the USD 7 bn Russian Industrial Zone (RIZ) in East Port Said has been finished, representing 1 mn sqm out of the 5.25 mn sqm stretch of land being allocated to Russian companies in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.
• CP Lease, a subsidiary of Catalyst Partners, signed a USD 10 mn financing agreement with Chinese company TEDA to fund the latter’s expansion in the local market.

Ahmed Abaza, founder and CEO of Synapse Analytics: Each week, my Morning / WFH Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Ahmed Abaza, founder and CEO of Synapse Analytics (LinkedIn).

Edited excerpts from our conversation:

My name is Ahmed Abaza, I'm the founder and CEO of Synapse Analytics. I started Synapse with my partner Galal El Beshbishy in 2018 after starting out my career in industrial automation and organizational learning & development. I was at Oracle in 2016 when I started reading more about how technology is changing the world of business for legacy companies that are trying to stay competitive. I was really excited about the prospects for tech and how it was capable of creating a more abundant world. At the time most companies were either tech-capable start ups or these large generations-old companies investing a lot of money into expensive technologies that weren’t being put to use.

I partnered in a digital transformation consulting company, with an experienced business consultant. I worked with Galal on getting companies to move forward with digital transformations, given the potential of AI and data science as highly effective tools for growth and optimization. When we landed our first AI project and saw it successfully deployed we saw how artificial intelligence, if adopted correctly, could become a “nuclear weapon,” as Galal used to say. We felt vindicated when a few years later one of the biggest thought leaders in the field compared AI adoption in the region to nuclear arms capabilities in the US in the mid-twentieth century, for its competitive edge. Work from that initial project is what later became Synapse Analytics.

Synapse takes things a step further by making sure companies make the full transformation through AI adoption. We see a lot of companies spend money creating algorithms to boost their operations, but they’re rarely used over the long run. This happens because data scientists often lack the experience of working on production level AI — which requires a dynamic system capable of taking in new data and producing new outputs. Leading tech research firm, Gartner, found that 90% of AI projects fail because of post-deployment issues. AI has to be nurtured for a while until it can start sustaining itself in an operational environment, which is why we make sure to have our impact officers check in with clients on adoption long after our product has been deployed.

We take on two types of clients: AI newbies and AI dabblers. For companies who have no idea about the technology we help them with everything from design to implementation and adoption. For those who have some understanding of what AI is about and maybe their own data science teams, we help them adopt AI through our machine learning operations platform, Konan. There’s also a cultural shift that needs to take place to get companies on board with the new technology, which our consultants work closely with them to reach.

Our clients include startups, FMCGs, financial institutions and companies that have been around for almost 20 years. AI can help a consumer products company determine the number and location of warehouses that would boost logistics efficiency. For alternative financing, you can use AI to give credit scores for people or institutions who don’t have a formal credit history. In malls, our AI can be trained to analyze footfall using security cameras to provide detailed traffic analytics.

We’re a 40 person team across our five main departments. Data science and analytics: where people with PhDs in the field of algorithmic science are located. AI deep learning: where we manage unstructured data sets like videos, texts and images. Software and products: which involves handling machine learning operations. Consulting and impact: where we consult clients on AI design and follow up on its business impact. And our newest department, growth: which is responsible for things like creating content for our recently launched blog TechQualia.

The start of the pandemic saw us 100% WFH. We tried going back to the office several times, but there would always be a few people getting sick before our scheduled return date. We’ve so far delayed an official return unless absolutely necessary. We’re now at an 80-20 split between WFH and in-person work.

I personally don't like WFH very much. I say this despite living in Sheikh Zayed and commuting to our Masr El Gedida office. There’s a bit of confusion that tends to take form when working at a distance. I feel like conversations by the water cooler can actually be helpful in keeping everyone on the same page and diffusing tension. It also takes longer to sell clients services when you’re not there face to face with them.

Ideally, I’d love to see a 30-70 split between WFH and in-person work. It's important to have the flexibility to work from wherever you are but I don’t think it should be the main mode of work. I think a huge part of work is establishing relationships and making friends. But again, I understand that it can also be nice to have more free time to see family and exercise.

We went to WFH soon after the birth of my child so I had the rare chance to really be there alongside my wife in the early days of taking care of our baby. It made me realize how difficult childbirth and child rearing can be for women.

For my day to day schedule I have two modes, on the wagon and off the wagon. When I’m on the wagon, I wake up at 5:30 am, have a coffee, a couple of dates and head straight to the gym before starting work. I follow a productivity program called Getting Things Done, which basically advocates for organizing your life based on context not on time. My work days don't follow a fixed routine but it usually consists of a lot of calls, meetings and follow ups. When I'm off the wagon my day starts at 9:30 am, when I roll out of bed to grab a coffee and cheese sandwich before a quick run before my meetings. I try to end my day at 7 pm, but that almost never happens.

The most important thing is knowing how to get back on the wagon once you identify that you’ve fallen off. For me, that means spending a day just writing things down, in what David Allen, author of Getting Things Done, calls a mind sweep. Then I start organizing things and creating a schedule with priorities.

I like to wind down in the evening by watching sitcoms with my wife. We’ve been watching The Office recently. I’m also interested in philosophy, and Escape from Freedom by Eric Fromm is one of my favorite books, which I’ve just re-read. Next up on my list is The Denial of Death by Ernest Becker.

As for podcasts I really like Conan O’brien Needs a Friend, Conan always makes me laugh. I also keep up with The Joe Rogan Experience, How I Built This, Game Ranks and Freakonomics.

I’m a huge video game fan. I like everything by Hideo Kojima. I like The Last of Us, Resident Evil and really everything. My real inspiration for getting into AI has been through gaming. It's the only thing that hasn’t changed over the course of my life.

As far as words I live by go I like the quote “Never fear trying anything new, remember amateurs built the ark, professionals built the Titanic,” from the Monk Who Sold His Ferrari by Robin S. Sharma

11-14 June (Friday-Monday): Egypt is hosting the first forum of the heads of African investment promotion agencies from under the theme Integration for Growth.

14 June (Monday): Egypt Green Economy Forum.

17 June (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

17-20 June (Thursday-Sunday): The International Exhibition of Materials and Technologies for Finishing and Construction (Turnkey Expo), Cairo International Conference Center.

20 June (Sunday): Ismailia Economic Court to hold hearing on Ever Given compensation case.

22-27 June (Tuesday-Sunday): The CIB PSA World Tour Finals for 2020-2021 will take place in Cairo.

24 June (Thursday): End of the 2020-2021 academic year (public schools).

26-29 June (Saturday-Tuesday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Cairo International Convention Center, Cairo, Egypt. The Big 5 Egypt Impact Awards will also be taking place at the event on 27 June.

30 June (Wednesday): The IMF will complete a second review of targets set under the USD 5.2 bn standby loan approved in June 2020 (proposed date).

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

30 June- 15 July: National Book Fair.

July + August: Thanaweya Amma exams take place.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

1 July (Thursday): Businesses importing goods at seaports will need to file shipping documents and cargo data digitally to the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system.

15 June (Saturday): EGX-listed will have to complete filing their financial disclosures for the period ended 31 March.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday).

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

2-4 August (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt is hosting the Africa Food Manufacturing exhibition at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

12-15 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Sahara Expo: the 33rd International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

14-16 February 2022 (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

1H2022: The World Economic Forum annual meeting, location TBD.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.