All eyes on the EGX and Fawry’s bellwether IPO

All eyes will be on the EGX for the next several days as Fawry gears up for its IPO, which would be the first since Sarwa Capital debuted on the exchange last October. Fawry’s initial public offering is expected to act as a bellwether for the equity raising climate in Egypt, particularly after last year’s emerging markets selloff and Sarwa Capital’s rocky IPO led several other planned IPOs and secondary listings to be put on ice. Chief among those who had postponed their offerings were companies in the state-owned privatization program, which is expected to see its first IPOs in September. We have more on this in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

Meanwhile, British Airways’ flight suspension is still driving the conversation on the nation’s talk shows and the foreign press alike. We have the latest in Last Night’s Talk Shows and Speed Round, below.

MENA skies are getting increasingly complicated for airlines: The decision by British Airways and Lufthansa to suspend flights served as an additional reminder for the increasingly complicated situation faced by airlines in the MENA region. Bloomberg has put together several flight maps demonstrating the long detours airlines take in order to navigate conflict and no-fly zones.

Fed gives markets mixed messages on anticipated rate cuts: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has clarified remarks made by its president, John Williams, after he gave a speech that fueled speculation that the Fed could cut rates by more than 25 bps when it meets later this month. Expectations for a 50 bps cut increased after Williams likened pre-emptive easing to a vaccination. The bank later issued a statement warning against reading too much into his words. The FT has more.

Emerging markets may be the winners from deglobalization: Emerging markets stand to benefit from deglobalization as China’s large, single-language consumer economy “pull [many EMs] into its growth orbit,” predicts the FT’s Rana Faroohar. EM equities, bonds, and commodities will all see increased demand from the growth of the new developing-world middle class, she predicts.

The losers? Globalized US-led tech stocks will no longer drive growth as cross-border trade falls and supply chains become more localized. Demand and profits will plummet, Faroohar says.

Saudi Arabia: a brave new world for working women? As Saudi Arabia seeks to boost domestic employment and establish a workforce that is 30% comprised of women by 2030, officials are eager to talk up reforms that they claim remove impediments to female employment. But shaking off long-established norms in one of the most conservative countries in the world doesn’t happen overnight, writes Ruth Michaelson in a long-read for the Guardian.

Is 5G technology all it’s hyped up to be? Yes and no, says the Wall Street Journal reporter who conducted 120 tests on a 5G device in the US. It’s faster than a speeding bullet, hitting a download speed of 1,800 megabits per second on one network in Denver (52 times the average 4G network download speed in the US). But coverage remains extremely limited, the extra speed doesn’t really affect anything besides downloading, and 5G phones are so prone to overheating that demo carriers have taken to cooling them down with ice packs.

Get your geek on: The 2019 San Diego Comic Con, which ran from 18-21 July, unveiled a whole host of movie and TV-series trailers to keep us on our toes. Some highlights: 10 new Marvel films for 2020 and 2021 (including Black Widow and Doctor Strange 2), Rick and Morty Season 4, an HBO adaptation of His Dark Materials (based on the brilliant Phillip Pullman trilogy), and Top Gun: Maverick (with Tom Cruise looking a little weathered, but still giving all the attitude of 30 years ago).

PSA- Enterprise is off tomorrow: With Revolution Day upon us, we’re taking our cue from the EGX and taking a day off. We’ll be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Wednesday morning.

British Airways’ suspension of flights to Cairo for a week was in the spotlight on a busy night for the country’s airwaves yesterday, with El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 10:26) and Hona Al Asema’s Reham Ibrahim (watch, runtime: 2:50) both taking note. We recap the aftermath in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

Bloomberg data says EGP outperformed (almost) every other currency in 2019: Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal was beaming with pride as she discussed Bloomberg figures listing the EGP as the year’s best performing currency (watch, runtime: 1:16). The EGP gained 6.5% in the first half of 2019, trailing only behind the Russian RUB, which gained 9.5% and outperformed the Thai baht (5.3%) and the Philippine peso (2.8%), according to Bloomberg indicators cited by the cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center.

SMEs and small and medium factories got some airtime on Al Hayah Al Youm, whereSMEs Authority head Nevine Gamea gave a brief rundown of services offered by her authority to encourage youth-led SMEs (watch, runtime: 4:49). Gamea also had a similar chat with Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 5:13).

The recently-passed Social Insurance and Pensions Act was the topic du jour on Hona Al Asema, with host Reham Ibrahim dedicating a large segment of the show to break down the recently passed legislation with the head of the social insurance fund for public sector workers Mohamed Seoudi (watch, runtime: 32:21).

Egypt’s population hits 99 mn: The Capmas tracker showed yesterday that the population of Egyptians living in the country has reached 99 mn, Masaa DMC’s Eman El Hossary reported (watch, runtime: 2:00). The population figure grew by a mn in about seven months, a slower growth rate when compared to the previous 1 mn increase, Cairo University professor Hussein Abdel Aziz told El Hossary over the phone (watch, runtime: 7:50).

IPO WATCH- Fawry to offer 36% of its shares in an IPO: E-payments platform Fawry is planning to offer up to 36% (or 254.6 mn) of the company’s shares owned by PSI Netherland Holding B.V in an IPO on the EGX, the company said in a statement (pdf). Fawry received the registration approval from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) in order to proceed with the listing and the share sale, the statement said. The shares will reportedly debut at par value of EGP 6.5, which is a discount from its fair value of EGP 6.9, based on the fair valuation of the e-payments platform at EGP 4.6 bn (c. USD 275 mn), according to local press sources.

The company will sell 21% to institutions in a pre-agreed transaction, 10% in a private placement to institutional investors, and 5% to retail investors, Chief Financial Officer Abdel Meguid Afifi told Enterprise. State-owned Banque Misr and NBE, and emerging markets private equity giant Actis are reportedly the institutions purchasing 21% of the shares in the pre-agreed transaction, with each holding 7%, anonymous sources told the press. The institutions were hand-picked as “quality investors” to help develop Fawry in the long run and not merely to acquire proceeds, the sources added.

As for the remainder of the institutional offering: A roadshow for local asset managers kicked off yesterday, with international roadshows to follow later in the week, we noted on Wednesday. UAE-based investors will be the first overseas targets in a roadshow set to kick off tomorrow, the sources told the newspaper.

The private placement could take place as early as next week, with the dates tentatively set at 27 to 31 July, while the retail offering is planned between 1-5 August, sources told the local press. Trading should begin on 8 August.

Advisers: EFG Hermes is the global coordinator and bookrunner for the share sale. Zulficar & Partners is serving as the local counsel, and Zaki Hashem & Partners is serving as local counsel to the issuer.

EXCLUSIVE- A generous tax break for companies listing on the EGX is in the making: Fawry’s planned listing comes as a government committee is looking at incentives to stimulate IPO activity in the market and attract more foreign investment in Egyptian equities. One proposal put forth by the Egyptian Capital Markets Association (ECMA) that is currently on the table is offering a 50% tax break for companies that list 35% or more of their shares on the stock exchange, government officials told Enterprise. The tax break would be effective for seven years following the execution of the IPO.

The tax cut proposal comes as part of a package of incentives that aims to stimulate trading activity on the EGX. Parliament approved last week keeping the provisional stamp tax on EGX transactions unchanged at 0.15%. The government is also looking to amend the capital gains tax (CGT) and is proposing to restore the old 10% tax rate on gains from the sale of shares in both EGX-listed and non-listed companies, among other incentives. A stamp tax would remain in place for non-residents, but would be lowered to 0.1% from 0.15%, government sources told us earlier this month.

M&A WATCH- EFG Hermes named as adviser to FrieslandCampina in Arab Dairy acquisition: EFG Hermes will provide financial advice to Dutch company FrieslandCampina in its bid to acquire Egyptian cheese-maker Arab Dairy, Hapi Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. Sharkawy and Sarhan Law Firm will be the legal advisers to Friesland, the sources said. Friesland got the go-ahead to perform due diligence on Arab Dairy in June ahead of making a bid. It will be competing with UAE-based Gulf Capital’s GC Equity Partners III fund.

Separately, EFG Hermes investment bank is planning to apply for a market-maker license on the Egyptian bourse this week, EFG Investment Banking Co-CEO Mohamed Ebeid told Al Mal. Ebeid said that the bank’s brokerage service has been expanded by offering structured products in five Arab countries. The bank currently manages USD 600 mn of structured products, a figure they aim to increase to USD 800 mn. The Financial Regulatory Authority granted EFG’s brokerage arm a short selling license last month.

The firm is also planning to IPO the institution affiliated with its education fund in Egypt, head of private equity Karim Moussa said, according to Al Mal. EFG and Dubai’s GEMS Education launched the fund as a part of a USD 300 mn education platform back in 2018. EFG is set to acquire schools in Cairo and Alexandria in a USD 30 mn transaction, and will invest another USD 30 mn in a transaction in the pharma sector.

British Airways’ seven-day suspension of flights to Cairo is not related to security measures at Egyptian airports, British ambassador to Egypt Geoffrey Adams told Civil Aviation Minister Younes El Masry yesterday, according to a ministry statement. Adams’ statements, which provided no further clarification, came after El Masry expressed his dismay over the decision being taken “abruptly and unilaterally” without prior coordination with Egyptian authorities. The flight operator justified its Saturday decision to suspend flights was justified “as a security precaution.” Germany’s Lufthansa also suspended its flights to Cairo from Munich and Frankfurt for a day, but returned to business as usual yesterday.

In fact, security at Egyptian airports is “at 100% efficacy,” British Airways’ North Africa regional manager Sherif Barsoum said, according to Sky News. “This is just a routine assessment” of security provisions on the company’s flights, Barsoum said. He reiterated that the move was not imposed by the British government.

It’s also not a political issue,an official from the British Embassy told Enterprise and other reporters. The decision was taken “by British Airways for the reasons set out in its statement,” he added. “There is no link to any recent assessment [of Egyptian airport security].” The UK and Egypt are international partners on aviation security, and “our latest travel advice does not advise against travel to or from Cairo airport,” the official said. The UK is “in close contact with relevant Egypt authorities and will continue to provide support as they work with British Airways on the matter.”

And it’s not the Algerian Afcon fans’ airport riots, either: Speculation was rife on social media yesterday with suggestions that the suspension is related to delayed flights to Algeria from Cairo Airport. The delay stirred riots by a crowd of Algerian fans in the airport’s halls early Sunday. Civil Aviation Authority head Sameh El Hefny has, however, denied the correlation in statements to CNN Arabic.

As British Airways refuses to back down, none else followed suit: Air France, Emirates, and Etihad Airways are continuing to operate flights to Cairo as normal, Reuters reports. Tour operator Thomas Cook also said the decision will not affect its weekly New Castle-Hurghada flights. Russia’s Aeroflot subsidiary Pobeda, meanwhile, is bucking the trend altogether and planning to launch new flights to a number of Egyptian cities, pending approval from Egyptian authorities, company CEO Andrey Kalmykov said, according to Sputnik Arabic.

DISPUTE WATCH- The Egyptian gov’t is facing a multi-mn USD lawsuit from an Australian mining company: Australian mining company Gippsland filed a lawsuit for potentially hundreds of mns of USD against the state-owned Egyptian Company for Mineral Resources (ECMR) in 2018, the Sydney Morning Herald reports. The Perth-based firm agreed to set up Tantalum International Ltd. (TIL), a joint venture company with ECMR back in 2004 to mine tantalum, but began arbitration proceedings in June last year at the World Bank’s International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The company is accusing ECMR of breaching “a variety of obligations with respect to how they conducted themselves.”

The lawsuit was filed in 2018, but it appears to just be getting attention now, as the Sydney Morning Herald’s story on Saturday is (as far as we can tell) the first time the lawsuit has received any coverage. The abrupt emergence of the story comes at a time when the Madbouly government is working hard to clear investor disputes and arbitration cases brought against Egypt.

What are Gippsland’s grievances? Gippsland accuses the government of obstructing production from the mine, and removing them unfairly from the project. The Australian company had entered into a 50-50 JV with ECMR in 2004, but in 2015 the government dissolved the company citing poor financials and delays. Gippsland had spent around USD 60 mn on feasibility studies and other preliminary works before the government removed it from the project. The mine would have also become the world’s largest, providing up to a quarter of the world’s tantalum supply.

TIL believes “bn-USD” potential means it is owed “significant” damages: TIL chair Mike Rosenstreich says the firm has a "strong legal case" to seek "significant" damages, indicating that the mine's bn-USD potential will be used as a guide to determine how much compensation is sought. "It's not just about what we spent, but about what we lost,” he said. “It's hundreds of millions of USD.”

Where the case stands now: TIL reportedly secured litigation funding in 2016, having reportedly sought to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels without success. The company has filed its documents to the ICSID, while the Egyptian government has yet to take the same step.

Advisers: London-based Clifford Chance is advising TIL, while the Egyptian government is being represented by New York's Shearman and Sterling.

Is the government about to step in to resolve the cement market glut? Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly held a meeting yesterday with Trade and Industry Minister Amr Nassar and Medhat Stefanos, the chairman of the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ cement division, to look into the challenges facing the local cement industry, according to a Cabinet statement. The meeting saw the officials discuss proposals for how to address these challenges. While the statement did not make mention of the market being in oversupply, there have been concerns for the past few years that there is a cement glut, even with the recent real estate boom. El Nahda Cement and Tourah Portland Cement Company had both temporarily suspended operations, with the former specifically pointing the finger of blame at falling sales due to oversupply.

Specialized export subsidy program for cement: The government will be working on creating a specialized export subsidy program for cement exporters, and will also “encourage” Egyptian producers to land export agreements with African countries, according to the statement. It remains unclear what form this encouragement will take. Shuaa Securities had pointed to Africa in a note last week as a key market to grow Egypt’s cement exports and clear excess production from the local market, particularly as housing and infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan countries is picking up.

Incentives to shipping companies revealed: Shipping companies will receive discounts of up to 45% on shipping fees as part of a package of new incentives approved by cabinet last week, Al Mal reports. The government will also waive guidance, lighthouse, and docking fees for three years as of September. Ships passing through the Suez Canal on a one-time basis will not benefit from the waiver but will pay lighthouse fees at a 25% discount. The package of incentives also includes:

• Cutting lighthouse services fees by 10% for ships passing through one port other than the Suez Canal and 20% for ships passing through two or more other ports;
• Extending licenses for shipping and logistics companies to 10-15 years, up from five years with the option to renew for the same period;
• Extending storage licenses to 10 years from five years, with a renewal option;
• Cutting by half insurance fees for license owners to EGP 5k (to be paid in cash or through letters of credit), down from EGP 10k;
• Cutting license fees for marine procurement to EGP 1k, down from EGP 3k;
• Slashing by half fees for supply vessels by half;
• Reducing fees for ship waste purchasers to EGP 1k per year, down from EGP 10k;
• Scrapping a requirement to transfer the ownership of facilities built at ports to the Ports Authority after 7-10 years on the expense of license holders, leaving the timeframe dependent on how much a company has invested and a decision from the relevant authority based on feasibility studies;
• Scrapping a previous requirement for Egyptian shareholders to own at least 51% of shipping companies.

Background: Shipping lines that had withdrawn from East Port Said Port since 2017 asked earlier this year for a new fixed-fees system for 3-5 years to compete with alternative ports. Suez Canal Container Terminal (SCCT), which is majority-owned by Maersk subsidiary APM Terminals, has been making losses of USD 1 mn a month since the beginning of the year as it struggles to compete with cheaper alternatives, including Greece’s Port of Piraeus whose fees are 60% cheaper. SCCT’s profits were halved last year, forcing the company to lay-off 400 employees, Christensen said. Sixteen major shipping lines have stopped docking at the port due to the high fees.

Scramblers have until mid-September to submit bids for Red Sea exploration: The South Valley Egyptian Petroleum Holding Company (Ganope) has extended to mid-September the deadline for submitting bids in its tender for 10 oil and gas exploration blocks off the Red Sea, an unnamed Oil Ministry official said. The deadline, which was previously set for early August, was extended to give more companies a chance to join in.

Background: Ganope launched the tender last March for 10 oil and gas exploration blocks under new production sharing contracts. The new terms give producers a larger share of the output and allow them to sell their share to non-government entities of their choosing, provided they obtain approvals from each of Ganope, EGAS, and the EGPC.

REGULATION WATCH- Freezone companies need to stick to target export mix: The General Authority for Investment (GAFI) has commissioned a working group to perform quarterly audits of companies under its supervision to ensure they are maintaining a certain ratio of domestic to international sales, the authority said in a statement. The group will begin auditing 2019 sales in 2020. Companies that fail to achieve the target will be reported to the authority.

GAFI is also easing procedures for companies seeking work and residency permits: Major companies seeking work and residency permits will no longer be subject to field inspections, GAFI said in a separate statement. Document and bureau inspection will be enough to process the request if the company has paid-in capital of EGP 100 mn or more. Companies will be required to present accredited income statements for three preceding years and other documents showing the company’s seriousness.

EARNINGS WATCH- Abu Qir Fertilizers FY2018-2019 profits jump 30.5% y-o-y: Abu Qir Fertilizers reported net income of around EGP 3.2 bn in FY2018-2019, compared to EGP 2.4 bn the previous year, the company said in a bourse filing (pdf). Revenues during the year rose 13.7% y-o-y to around EGP 8.6 bn. We reported earlier this month that the additional stake sale in the company will not take place before September.

Alexandria Mineral Oils profits plunge 70% y-o-y in FY2018-2019: Alexandria Mineral Oils (AMOC) net income dropped to EGP 450 mn in FY2018-2019, compared to EGP 1.5 bn in the previous year, the company said in a bourse filing (pdf). Revenues rose 4.5% to EGP 14.7 bn during the year, compared to EGP 14 bn a year earlier.

Edita published its first-ever Sustainability Report yesterday, which lists the various initiatives that the snack maker took last year in the way of sustainable growth and maintaining its commitment to being “an operation that respects human rights, fair labor standards, legal and ethical regulations, and the environment.” These steps include maintaining its operational sustainability by continuing to expand and adapt to the market and implementing a recipe protection program, in addition to putting in place an environmental sustainability policy to limit its ecological footprint, among several other key initiatives. Check out the full report here (pdf).

MOVES- Abu Dhabi Capital Group has tapped its senior executive Ahmed Fathallah (LinkedIn) as CEO of two of its portfolio companies, Capital Group Properties and Imkan Misr, according to Hapi Journal. Fathallah was formerly Emaar Misr CIO when the company went public in 2015.

And you thought the jellyfish that invaded Sahel were big: This large barrel jellyfish (otherwise known as a “dustbin-lid jellyfish” due to its size and shape) was captured on camera by two unsuspecting divers off the UK coast last week. The jellyfish is an estimated 1.5 meters, and could weigh up to 35 kgs. The photo quickly went viral, and has since prompted pieces like this BBC Ode to the Jellyfish, which uses an impressive selection of flowery language to describe the author’s fascination with the creatures (“diaphanous sea beast” being our personal favorite).

The Wall Street Journal is blowing the flight suspension out of proportion: Egypt’s tourism industry will suffer a heavy blow because British Airways suspended flights to Cairo for a week, Jared Malsin claims in the Wall Street Journal. The news will apparently “taint the view of potential tourists who will be left wondering what further security risks exist,” a risk analyst tells the newspaper, clearly excited by his own hyperbole.

Other stories worth a moment of your time:

• Israeli-Ethiopian ties: Egyptian analysts are assessing the impact of the increasing ties between Ethiopia and Israel, after claims that three Israeli firms installed an advanced air defense system in May to shield the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (The Arab Weekly)
• The story of an Egyptian Jew: Clement Behar grew up in the cosmopolitan Cairo of the 1920s and 30s, and later risked his life to release Jewish prisoners during the heightened nationalism and of the 1940s and 50s. (Haaretz)

Someone tell Elon Musk that Black Mirror isn’t an instruction manual: Elon Musk unveiled during a presentation his frankly bizarre plans to put hundreds of chip implants into our brains (watch, runtime: 18:28). Neuralink is composed of around 1k thread-like chips that are one tenth the width of a human hair, which are inserted into the brain by a robot. The chips will allow the brain to directly interact with smartphones, “achieving a symbiosis with artificial intelligence.” Musk has previously argued for radical solutions to prevent his apocalyptic vision of artificial superintelligence from becoming reality. The company plans to test the technology on a human subject for the first time next year.

Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker met yesterday with a delegation from China’s United Energy Group, which is interested in setting up solar and concentrated solar power plants, according to Al Mal. The Hong Kong-listed energy firm has been eyeing new investments in Egypt’s energy sector since at least last October.

EFG Hermes is looking at potentially venturing into the American renewable energy market with wind or solar power projects over the coming period, head of private equity and asset management Karim Moussa told Hapi Journal, without providing further details. EFG is working on implementing a comprehensive expansion plan over the coming period, including setting up a real estate private equity fund next year and one or two non-banking financial services companies before the year is out.

Speed Medical is planning to inaugurate its new hospital in Obour City by August 2020, Chairman Mahmoud Lasheen tells Al Mal. Speed Medical will spend some EGP 150 mn to have the facility up and running, which will be financed through retained earnings to raise its working capital, Lasheen added. Lasheen had previously estimated the cost to come at EGP 120-130 mn. His company, which is currently listed on NileX, is eyeing an EGX debut at the end of the year after meeting a minimum EGP 100 mn capital requirement.

Heliopolis Housing and Development (HHD) has extended an auction to lease Showland and a children’s park at Merryland amusement park by 10 days to 28 August 2019, the company said in a press release (pdf).

EgyptAir began yesterday operating its new flight route to Douala, Cameroon, MENA reports. We previously reported that the airline would start running three indirect flights a week, with passengers catching a connecting flight from the Chadian capital N’Djamena.

Officials from delivery app Glovo’s Spain office are in town to meet with 120 drivers currently on strike in protest at the company’s decision to end financial incentives and compensation, sources close to the matter told the local press. The company had scrapped financial benefits without providing explanation, the sources said, adding that drivers are asking for the return of bonuses and a guarantee of EGP 20 on each trip given they provide high quality service. Glovo, which is planning to launch a Heliopolis branch soon, returned to Egypt in June after less than a month of suspending operations in the country amid a dispute with the Egyptian Competition Authority. The ECA had accused Glovo of a deliberate, anti-competitive arrangement when it began directing users to Otlob, the food delivery app owned and operated by Delivery Hero, which owns 16% of Glovo.

Three local banks fully covered the EGP 6 bn of securitization bonds offered by the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) last week, Al Mal reported. The National Bank of Egypt, CIB, and the Arab African International Bank covered EGP 2 bn each. This is the first tranche of NUCA’s planned EGP 10 bn issuance of securitization bonds.

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has granted Tycoon Securities Brokerage a short selling license, according to Al Mal. The company will now join seven others authorized to short sell — including Arqaam, EFG Hermes, CI Capital, the Arab African International Securities, Prime Holdings, and HC Securities. Short selling transactions are expected to begin in 3Q2019, according to FRA deputy head Khaled El Nashar.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has ordered that a committee be formed to create a plan for the Golden Triangle development project using the studies prepared by Italian consulting firm D’Appolonia, the cabinet said in a statement. New 220 KV power lines will be installed at the end of the year to serve the whole area, Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker said. The project was previously expected to draw USD 16 bn in investments and will include tourism, manufacturing, transportation, energy, and infrastructure projects. The Golden Triangle refers to the area between Qena, Safaga and Quseir.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly inaugurated on Sunday the first phase of the EGP 230 mn Roxy Garage, the Middle East’s first public garage with a hydraulic parking system, the cabinet said in a statement. The first phase can take up to 900 cars while the second phase is expected to be completed by the end of 2020.