Sunday, 5 February 2023

PM — Are museums going to become a thing of the past?

TL;DR

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Good afternoon, wonderful people. We have a relatively brisk start to this first full work week of February, with a little bit of everything happening.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Private sector starts the year with sharper contraction: Activity in Egypt’s non-oil private sector contracted at a quicker pace in January, according to S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (pdf). January’s PMI reading fell to 45.5 in January from 47.2 a month earlier — marking the 26th consecutive month of contraction — as high inflation and the weakening EGP continue to weigh on businesses.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

Picking up where we left off this morning, the international business press is still mostly leading with the US shooting down a suspected Chinese spy balloon. The story is on the front pages of the Financial Times, CNBC, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal.

HAPPENING NOW-

Former Prime Minister Sherif Ismail’s military funeral is currently underway, with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and several government officials in attendance, according to an Ittihadiya statement. Ismail passed away yesterday at the age of 67 following a battle with illness.

TAKE OUR JANUARY ENTERPRISE READER SURVEY and get a chance to break bread with us: Give us your thoughts on how 2022 panned out for your business and industry, and what you’re expecting in the year ahead in our Enterprise Reader Survey.

We’re asking you to share your expectations on the EGP / USD rate in 2023, how you’re managing expenses amid the rising cost of living, where you see your industry as a whole heading, and whether you expect to make fresh investments — among a few other questions we ask our community on a regular basis. As is our custom, we’ll be sharing the results with all of you in a few weeks’ time to help you shape your view of the year.

You can take the Reader Survey here — it won’t take more than a few minutes to complete.

Want to have a meal with us? Leave your name, email, mobile number, and where you work in the box for “Is there anything else you want to tell us.” We’ll be inviting eight participating readers to a meal at one of our favorite restaurants.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • CBE unexpectedly holds interest rates steady in its first meeting of the year: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, defying expectations of a third consecutive hike.
  • Egypt’s current account deficit narrowed by 20% to USD 3.2 bn in 1Q 2022-23 on the back of higher FDI, exports, and tourism revenues, according to CBE figures.
  • Govt lays out the details of in-school tutoring scheme: The Education Ministry will launch an in-school tutoring scheme across all governorates at the start of the second semester of the academic year next week, Education Minister Reda Hegazy told reporters on Thursday

enterprise

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.

In today’s issue: After a bumper 2022, the fertilizer industry in Egypt is broadly expected to have another strong year in 2023 — albeit with a slight slowdown as market dynamics shift.

FOR TOMORROW-

Operation Save Lebanon: Egyptian officials are attending an international meeting in Paris called by France to discuss how to end a political impasse in crisis-hit Lebanon, AFP reported, citing statements by the French Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson. Officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the US will also be in attendance.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Palestine talks in Cairo: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is expected to fly into Cairo this week to hold talks with Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and other security officials, a Hamas spokesperson said in a statement picked up by the Jerusalem Post. The secretary of Palestinian Islamic Jihad was in Cairo yesterday for talks, the Israeli newspaper reported. The invite came days after Kamel visited Ramallah for talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and other officials in a bid to end the recent violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

The key remaining news triggers this month:

  • Foreign reserves: The central bank will release January’s foreign reserves figures this week.
  • Inflation: The CBE and Capmas will publish inflation data for January at the end of this week.

Unis go back this week: The second semester of the 2022-2023 academic year begins for public universities on 11 February.

Petro-show next week: Oil and gas industry figures from Egypt and the region will congregate at the Egypt International Exhibition Center for the Egypt Petroleum Show (Egyps) starting next Monday. The three-day conference runs 13-15 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

????️TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s getting chillier: Expect the mercury to dip to a high of 16°C during the day, with our favorite weather app bracing us for some strong winds. The temperature will drop to a nighttime low of 9°C.

enterprise

FOR YOUR COMMUTE

Naguib Sawiris moves up the list of 500 wealthiest b’naires: After briefly dropping off the Bloomberg B’naires Index in 2021, Egyptian tycoon Naguib Sawiris made his comeback on the list in 2022, and is currently ranked at 472 on the daily ranking of the world’s 500 richest people. Naguib’s estimated total net worth is currently at USD 5.6 bn, as of today, up USD 502 mn since the beginning of the year. His brother Nassef sits ahead of him on the list, at 309, with an estimated total net worth of USD 7.56 bn, up USD 533 mn since the beginning of the year.

Bernault Arnault is at the top of the list, followed by Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. Arnault — France’s richest person and chairman of LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods maker, sits at the top of the list with a net worth of USD 196 bn, according to the index. Tesla and Twitter chief executive, Musk holds the second spot with a net worth of USD 175 bn, followed by Bezos with a net worth of USD 128 bn.


Dealmakers are getting creative to keep debt low when expanding their portfolios, whether through new companies, large stake acquisitions, or complete takeovers, reports the Financial Times. Private equity firms and buyers are leaving old loans on books, to prevent taking on large debts in a tough lending climate of rising interest rates and limited credit options — allowing them to take on new investments without straining their wallets.

Portable Capital Structures (PCSs) are becoming a go-to move for savvy corporate buyers looking to acquire businesses, as they provide a direct liquid investment option that eliminates the need (and headache) of raising additional funds. PCSs require buyers to have strong debt ratings. The powers-that-be are particularly suspicious of PCSs, knowing the acquisitions might result in them holding debt that becomes riskier than when they first agreed to buy it, according to the FT.

Keeping debt in place during a transfer is a real asset, an executive told the FT. It can pay to hang onto this debt as transfer mechanisms like change of control provisions (which force buyers to refinance and repay existing loans) won’t be triggered if dealt with in just the right way. Secondary transfers — wherein new investors become minority stakeholders without setting off alarm bells — offer one such solution for those wanting strong outcomes but hold weaker financial profiles.

enterprise

ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
(all times CLT)

Real-life Squid Game 2.0? Physical: 100 is a new Survivor-esque reality TV series that brings together 100 of South Korea’s greatest athletes and celebrities for a series of grueling physical challenges as they fight to become the last one standing and claim a prize of KRW 300 mn (about USD 240k). The show has drawn comparisons to the viral South Korean drama Squid Game for its ruthless premise and backbreaking challenges, one of which sees contestants hanging from metal bars on a ceiling until they drop off into the water below. Our two cents: It's entertaining to watch a diverse group of contestants — men, women, YouTube stars, K-pop dancers, and Olympic gold medalists — compete in this fight-to-the-death style. While there’s no ruthless killing a la Squid Game, the tensions run pretty high throughout the hour-long episodes. Episodes are out weekly on Netflix.

This is not to be confused with Netflix’s take on a real-life Squid Game show — set to be titled Squid Game: The Challenge — which garnered controversy before it even aired. Several contestants were recently reported to have collapsed on set due to what they called “inhumane conditions,” like working long hours in the UK’s freezing weather.

Today in the Egyptian Premier League:

  • Dakhiliya faces Aswan at 2:45pm
  • Ghazl El Mahalla plays Haras El Hodoud at 2:45pm
  • Al-Ittihad faces Ismaili at 7pm
  • Cermica Cleopatra plays Enppi at 7pm

In the English Premier League Tottenham faces Manchester City at 6:30pm. City will enter the match with no option but to come out on top if it hopes to stay in the competition. Current league leaders Arsenal are up 5 points, with one less match to play than City. Nottingham Forest’s match against Leeds kicks off at 4pm.

Don’t forget to subscribe to our Enterprise Fantasy Premier League. Follow this link or enter the code 8o4sut to join.

Barcelona and Real Madrid’s race for the top continues: Mallorca v Real Madrid kicked off at 3pm, and is still ongoing as we dispatch, with the score currently at 1-0 for Mallorca, while Barcelona plays against Sevilla at 10pm. Also in La Liga tonight:

Girona v Valencia (5:15pm)

Real Sociedad v Valladolid (7:30pm)

Bundesliga: Wolfsburg hosts German league leaders Bayern Munich at 6:30pm.

And in Italy’s Serie A: Spezia’s match against leaders Napoli kicked off at 1:30pm and is still continuing with a score of 2-0 for Napoli. Meanwhile, the Milan derby between Inter and AC Milan kicks off at 9:45pm.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Multicultural ambiance at Pink Blanket Mama: This new spot in New Cairo’s Garden 8 is a restaurant-library-gallery hybrid with a really impressive ambiance. Pink Blanket Mama's relaxed — yet superbly decorated — atmosphere puts it high on our list of favorite Cairo spots, and it's bound to become one of the city's most Instagrammable spots. The restaurant’s “Mama” comes from a multicultural background that has seen her move from Cairo to London, Taiwan, New York, and Tulum, and her menu reflects that — from Taiwanese bao to tacos and ramen; the menu has it all. We loved the beef buttery noodles and the pink cloud drink — it tasted great, and looked even better in our Instagram photos.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
(all times CLT)

Komedy Koshk is taking over Comedy Night at Room New Cairo tonight at 8pm, with must-see sets courtesy of this lineup of local comedians: Noha Kato, Mohamed Farghaly, Abdoul, Laila Khalid and Mohamed Nasr and an opening act by Seif Kamel.

Dust off your dancing shoes: Intro to swing dancing kicks off at 8pm tonight at Minglings Heliopolis.

Don’t miss Irtigalia performing the third edition of the Maestro Improv Format by Keith Johnstone at The Tap West tomorrow at 8pm.

Saad El Oud and his band take the stage at Room Art Space New Cairo tomorrow at 9pm.

Do something new this weekend: Head over to L’Appart in Maadi for a candle-making workshop with The Melting Studio this Friday, 11 February. Book a spot through their Instagram page here.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Should museums as we know them today be canceled? Museums have recently come under fire for their imperial and colonial biases as well as their refusal to return foreign artifacts. In his new book, The Museum of Other People, visiting anthropology professor at the London School of Economics, Adam Kuper looks back at museums’ heyday in the Western world in the second half of the 19th century, when colonialism was thriving across Africa and Oceania. The purpose of museums at the time was to display “primitive” objects from various exotic locations to demonstrate how far Western civilization had progressed. He traces the evolution of these “museums of other people,” as he calls them, from Copenhagen to Washington, DC, but warns that in today’s drastically different climate, they may be on the verge of extinction. The aftermath of World War II saw a period of decolonization during which museums started to lose popularity. More recently, discussions about cultural appropriation and movements like Black Lives Matter have raised serious questions about the future of such institutions. Kuper outlines some of the changes that museums must make in order to adapt and survive.

GO WITH THE FLOW

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.77 bn (2% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 11.4% YTD.

In the green: Palm Hills Development (+10.3%), GB Auto (+9.2%) and Talaat Moustafa Group (+3.1%).

In the red: Taaleem (-4.1%), Qalaa Holdings (-4.0%) and Ibnsina Pharma (-3.1%).

industry

Will fertilizer companies continue to rake in record returns in 2023? After a windfall year for fertilizer producers, which saw global prices of some types of fertilizers jump as much as 100% last year, local players are likely on track for a slightly slower year in 2023. Despite optimism among fertilizer manufacturers and analysts we’ve spoken to about the sector’s performance, higher gas prices, intensifying competition and continued export restrictions are weighing down on the prospects of another record year.

Global fertilizer prices have dramatically risen since 2021: Buffeted by the post-pandemic release of demand, rising inflation and sanctions against Russia (the world’s largest exporter of fertilizers), prices hit record highs over the past couple of years. Last April, urea fertilizer prices rose globally to some USD 1.1k per ton before hitting USD 520 per ton by the end of 2022 — cooling down significantly throughout the year, but still remaining well above the average USD 290 per ton it cost before the pandemic.

High prices were a boon for local players: Manufacturing disruptions, high gas prices in Europe, and the EGP devaluation have given local fertilizer producers overwhelming incentive to boost exports, which currently constitutes about 45-70% of our domestic production. Local fertilizer demand runs somewhere between 2.5-3 mn tons, while our annual production capacity is about 7.5 mn tons, Alia El-Mehelmy, co-head of CI Capital research told Enterprise.

Export revenues hit record highs despite weaker volume: After Egypt partially filled fertilizer supply void Russia left behind during the first 10 months of last year, fertilizer sector players ended 2022 with some USD 3.39 bn in export revenue, up 42% y-o-y from 2021, Export Council for Chemical Industries and Fertilizers head Khaled Aboul Makarem told Enterprise. This came despite a 20% drop in export sales, EFG Vice President of Research Yousef Husseini tells us. Now, chemical and fertilizer industry players are targeting USD 10 bn in collective export revenue this year, after the two sectors hit a record USD 8.63 bn last year, according to Abu Al-Makarem.

The EGP devaluation has been great for producers: Fertilizer sector shares rose c.76% in 2022 — outperforming the benchmark EGX30, which ended the year up 21.2% — thanks mainly to greater export revenues and the EGP devaluation, which allowed fertilizer companies to pay out dividends to shareholders, El-Mehelmy tells us. Abu Qir Fertilizers was the sector’s best performing stock, whose price ballooned some 117% last year.

The outlook remains positive for fertilizer stocks: Fertilizer stocks are expected to maintain strong performance throughout 2023 but will likely sit slightly below 2022 figures on the back of growing global demand and a flurry of recently announced green ammonia projects, according to analysts we spoke to. Analysts also see healthy operating rates, stable levels of production, and strong sales this year compared to 2022, while a weaker EGP could also make export sales more lucrative.

It’s a good time for expansion in the sector: The EGP depreciation and geographic proximity to Europe — where production was already on the decline well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — will continue to support production in places with relatively lower operating costs, El-Mehelmy explained. State-owned Abu Qir Fertilizers is spearheading the sector’s largest expansion initiatives with the massive North Abu Qir green ammonia facility, of which it owns some 45%. The bulk of the facility’s production will be geared towards export to EU countries, according to El-Mehelmy. State-owned Egyptian Sugar and Integrated Industries Company (ESIIC) is also considering the establishment of an EGP 160 mn fertilizers plant in Nagaa Hammadi.

Financing is unlikely to be problematic: Although banks are setting aside greater loan loss provisions for sectors that are at risk of falling behind on loan repayments — including fertilizers — it’s unlikely that fertilizer companies (except for the highly indebted Kima) will struggle to finance growth, according to Hosseini. Most fertilizer companies have export revenues that surpass the USD cost of natural gas and sufficient liquidity to bypass taking on more debt in a high interest rate environment, El-Mehelmy told us.

Local prices remain challenging obstacles for producers: Producers sell between 30-55% of their products locally to farmers at the subsidized rate of EGP 4.5k (some USD 151) per ton — 70% lower than export prices. “The current supply price for the local market, even after its most recent adjustment, does not cover the cost of production after inflation, higher energy prices, and the cost of transportation and freight,” Chemical Industries Holding Company CEO Emad El Din Mostafa told Enterprise. This comes despite production being more than double domestic demand, while companies are still only restricted to export 45% of their production. Reforming the urea fertilizer subsidy mechanism and adjusting prices could be the biggest opportunity for the sector this year, according to El-Mehelmy.

The sharp decline in export prices this year is still a concern for some: The price of urea fertilizer dipping below USD 550 per ton is raising some concern about the sector’s performance this year, according to El-Mehelmy. The dip could be a market response to the looming threat of global recession or due to a sudden rise in exports from China, which is another concern on manufacturers’ minds this year, she explained.

Projections about how higher gas prices will affect the sector vary: The impact higher natural gas prices (which constitute about 60%of production costs) will have on the fertilizer sector will depend on foreign demand, Abu Al-Makarem told Enterprise. The government last year raised the price at which natural gas is supplied to nitrogen fertilizer facilities, following a new pricing scheme that takes into account international natural gas and fertilizer prices in setting monthly rates, with a minimum of USD 4.5 / mmBtu. That decision does not include companies that are supplied natural gas under long-term contracts with listed equivalent prices like Mopco Fertilizers, Alexandria Fertilizers, and Egyptian Fertilizers, which will continue to pay at previously agreed upon rates until their contracts expire, Hosseini told Enterprise. Although the new price scheme has hurt margins, losses were still largely offset by the EGP depreciation, El-Mehelmy told us.

Companies need to act fast to maintain competitiveness: Fertilizer and chemical industries could lose some 4% of their export earnings due to new climate restrictions being put in place in the EU — where some 60% of Egyptian fertilizer exports wound up in 2021. The new restrictions, which will require companies to provide clear documentation of the emissions released in the production of inbound goods as soon as 2026, are designed to keep European companies from simply offloading emissions from industrial production to overseas locations and could significantly impact export prospects for carbon intensive industries like fertilizer production in Egypt.


Your top industrial development stories for the week:

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

26 January-6 February (Thursday-Monday): Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

5 February (Sunday): The Senate reconvenes.

11 February (Saturday): Second semester of 2022-2023 academic year begins for public universities.

12 February (Sunday): The House reconvenes.

13-15 February (Monday-Wednesday): The Egypt Petroleum Show (Egyps), Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

23-27 February (Thursday-Monday): Annual Business Women of Egypt’s Women for Success conference.

MARCH

March: 4Q2022 earnings season.

6-9 March (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One-on-One conference, Atlantis, Dubai.

21-22 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

23 March (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC). Maghreb will be at 6:08pm CLT.

30 March (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

APRIL

April: GAFI to launch the country’s first integrated electronic platform to facilitate setting up a business.

1 April (Saturday): Deadline for banks to establish sustainability units.

10-16 April (Monday-Sunday): IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings, Marrakesh, Morocco.

16 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter

17 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

21 April (Friday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Tuesday): Sinai Liberation Day.

27 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

30 April (Sunday): Deadline for self-employed to register for e-invoicing.

30 April (Sunday): End of Mediterranean, Nile Delta oil + gas exploration tender.

Late April – 15 May: 1Q2023 earnings season.

MAY

1 May (Monday): Labor Day.

2-3 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

4 May (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

4 May (Thursday): IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Cairo.

18 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

20-21 May (Saturday-Sunday): eGlob Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

22-26 May (Monday-Friday): Egypt will host the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings in Sharm El Sheikh.

JUNE

7-10 (Wednesday-Saturday): The second edition of Africa Health Excon.

10 June (Saturday): Thanaweya Amma examinations begin.

13-14 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

19-21 June (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Infrastructure and Water Expo debuts at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

22 June (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

28 June-2 July (Wednesday-Sunday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Friday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

18 July (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

20 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Sunday): Revolution Day.

25-26 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

27 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day.

Late July-14 August: 2Q2023 earnings season.

AUGUST

3 August (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

19-20 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

21 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

31 October – 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2023: Egypt will host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors in 2023.

1Q 2023: Adnoc Distribution’s acquisition of 50% of TotalEnergies Egypt to close.

1Q 2023: Egypt + Qatar to launch joint business forum.

1Q 2023: FRA to introduce new rules for short selling.

1Q 2023: Internal trade database to launch.

1Q 2023: The Madbouly government will choose which state-owned hotels will be merged into a new hotels company ahead of an offering to foreign and Gulf investors.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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