PM — The final interest rate day of 2021 comes with Fed tapering and BoE raising rates for the first time in three years.

We close out the week with the final interest rate day of 2021, ladies and gentlemen, as the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to review interest rates. All 11 economists and analysts we surveyed expect the MPC to leave rates unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting.

Where rates stand now: The overnight deposit rate is at 8.25%, the lending rate at 9.25% and the main operation and discount rates are at 8.75%. The central bank slashed rates by 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300 bps cut in March, to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19. It has since maintained rates for eight consecutive meetings, including its most recent in October, amid concerns about an increase in inflation.

Inflation does not appear to be a concern: Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November and dipped to its lowest since July as pressure on food prices continued to ease, according to official figures released on Thursday. The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the central bank’s target range of 5-9% for 4Q2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose ever-so-slightly by 0.1%, following October’s 1.1% rise. With Egypt’s inflationary pressures cooling off in November, the bank now has a bit of breathing space to hold off changes and protect the economic recovery, amid an uncertain outlook due to the spread of the new Omicron variant, analysts told us last week.

The Fed, however, is a very different matter: The CBE’s decision will likely factor in the US Federal Reserve’s major pivot from its “wait and see” policy towards a hawkish strategy. The Fed announced yesterday it will taper its bond-buying program at double the pace it originally expected, as it braces for three rate hikes in 2022. After keeping interest rates near zero throughout the pandemic in efforts to support the economy, the Fed is now taking a harder line due to US inflation surging to an almost 40-year high.

Why should it matter? It puts emerging-market debt — including Egyptian bonds and T-bills — at risk of becoming less attractive to foreign investors. Tighter monetary policy in the US could leave emerging markets vulnerable to a drop in foreign inflows as risk-averse managers seek safer returns in the US.

Following suit, the Bank of England has raised interest rates today to 0.25%, the first hike in more than three years, in an effort to contain the UK’s decade-high inflation. The move came as a surprise to some economists who had anticipated no change from the BoE, amid fears that the country’s surging cases of Covid could slow the UK economy. Policymakers said more “modest” tightening is likely needed in response to rising prices.

But it’s still business as usual at the ECB: The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is maintaining the “inflation is temporary” narrative, deciding to keep rates unchanged in its meeting today. The ECB confirmed it will end net bond purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program by the end of March, but will ramp up other stimulus measures. The bank will expand a separate bond-buying program in 2022, and does not plan to raise its key interest rate, currently set at minus 0.5%, until it ends its net bond purchases. This comes despite inflation in the EUR area reaching a record high of 4.9% in November.

Over in EM-land we have Erdonomics, or as we like to call it, monetary policy for dummies: Turkey’s TRY plunged to an all-time low today, as the central bank cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive month, Bloomberg reports. The TRY is now worth about half its value at the beginning of the year, hitting 15.65 to the USD immediately following the news. Turkey’s inflation is now at more than 21%, climbing steadily as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to raise rates, which he has previously called “the mother of all evil.“

The CBE’s decision on interest rates should be out by 6pm CLT today. We will have detailed coverage in Sunday’s EnterpriseAM.

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THE BIG STORY TODAY-

The Health Ministry will be offering booster shots to those “eligible” without requiring them to register, according to a decision by the Madbouly Cabinet announced today. Eligible people — currently include only medical staff, senior citizens, and people with chronic medical conditions — will be chosen from the ministry’s current directory of people who signed up for the vaccine. Cabinet spokesman Nader Saad previously said that around 4 mn people fall within this category. The statement did not note when the roll out of boosters will begin.

The Health Ministry will be sending those eligible messages with booster shot time and date. The ministry was previously expected to allow registration for boosters from its website, but the launch of booster shot online registration was delayed in the past few weeks.

23 mn booster jabs to be administered by 1H2022: The definition of who is considered eligible will likely be expanded in the coming months as the ministry is aiming to administer 23 mn booster shots by 1H2022, the statement added. People will need to have been fully vaccinated six months prior to receiving their booster.

Where do we currently stand on our vaccine rollouts? The country currently has 64.5 mn vaccine doses available at its disposal. Some 52 mn doses of various jobs have been given so far, at a rate of 551k vaccines per day. Meanwhile, 540k doses have been administered to people less than 18 years of age since the government greenlit the rollout for the age group between 15-18 early in November and the age group between 12-15 later on in the month.

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HAPPENING NOW- Saudi Foreign Minister Emir Faisal Bin Farhan is here and Cairo to discuss “political consultation mechanism” with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, according to a ministry statement. The mechanism, which kicked off with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on Sunday, is intended to cement ties between Egypt and the Gulf region on relevant regional and international issues.

CORRECTION- Madinet Nasr Housing and Development’s (MNHD) fair value study estimates that it will shell out a maximum EGP 232 mn to acquire Minka Development, and not a minimum as we reported yesterday. Despite the valuation, MNHD’s management, which is currently negotiating a final price for the company, still expects to acquire Minka at the EGP 200-220 mn range that MNHD said it expected to pay when it first announced the acquisition plan in October, an official at the company told us today. The story has since been corrected on our website.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• VAT Act amendments: As more information comes in about the proposed amendments to the VAT Act, crackers and sweet pastries have been saved from the added taxes, while other commodities can’t claim to be so lucky.
• Fitch thinks Egypt could be up for another IMF program: Egypt’s high exposure to external financing could lead the government to seek a fresh IMF program, especially in the event of a “liquidity shock,” a Fitch report said.
• AIM Technologies closes Sequence Ventures-led seed round: The round marks the first investment in Sequence’s Egypt Deep-Tech fund, which was launched earlier this quarter to channel investment into startups operating in health-tech, fintech, ed-tech, prop-tech, logistics, and software development.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Reddit has filed for an IPO with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company announced in a press release (pdf) yesterday, though it has yet to share details about the price range and number of shares it is offering. The social media company was valued at USD 10 bn in August, just six months after closing a funding round that saw its valuation double. In September, a source told Reuters that the company hopes to be valued at USD 15 bn by the time it IPOs early next year. Reddit has almost 52 mn daily active users and upward of 100k communities or subreddits. The platform gained mns of new users and advertisers earlier this year when its WallStreetBets forum became a focal meme stock for investors in GameStop Corp. The announcement comes at the end of a year characterized by more than 900 IPOs worth a total of almost USD 300 bn.

The story is everywhere, including: The New York Times | Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | Reuters | The Verge | Bloomberg | CNN.

Meanwhile, Evergrande is in even deeper trouble as Chinese creditors sue the company for USD 13 bn as domestic investors hurry to seek compensation from the at-risk-of-default developer before offshore bondholders get the chance, writes the Financial Times. Over 360 cases have been locally filed against Evergrande, according to official court records seen by the FT, worth the equivalent of USD 13.2 bn. This signals that Chinese creditors have lost faith in the developer and are expecting a default or debt restructuring in the coming period. Earlier this week, Fitch declared Evergrande to be in “restricted default”, lowering its rating from ‘C’ to ‘RD’ after the property developer failed to meet bond payment deadlines for the umptheenth time.

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???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UN Convention Against Corruption in Sharm El Sheikh is on its penultimate day today. The event wraps up tomorrow.

It’s the final day of the Arab Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in Aswan.

Jobzella’s Fifth Career Fair is coming to the GrEEK Campus from 11am to 6pm on Christmas Day. With ITIDA as a platinum sponsor, participating companies include Raya, NOK Human Capital, Egycham, Education for Employment, Espace and Majorel, among others.

Swvl and Magalix’ are holding a virtual fireside chat titled Stories of Women in the Tech Field on Tuesday 21 December, at 7pm. Connect to the event here.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The mercury will reach 19°C during the highs of Friday and Saturday, while the weekend’s nighttime lows are at 9-10°C, our favorite weather app tells us.

Over 1.2 mn cyberattacks launched since discovery of massive software flaw: Hackers — including state-backed Chinese groups — have jumped on the chance to launch more than 1.2 mn attacks on companies globally since last Friday, cybersecurity researchers told the Financial Times. The flaw in Log4J — a widely used logging software — makes way for hackers to penetrate corporate servers and potentially steal and leak data.

Scandal-hit NSO Group could jettison unit at the center of hacking furore: Israeli spyware firm NSO Group is considering either selling or shutting down its Pegasus unit, which has previously been accused of an “egregious, deliberate and concerted effort” to target and attack its users, sources familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. The Pegasus leaks revealed earlier this year that several senior Egyptian politicians — including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly — were among those that may have had their phones hacked by the company.

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NASAs Parker Solar Probe makes a historic flyby, coming within 8.1 mn miles of the sun’s surface, the space agency said in a press release yesterday. This is the closest any human-made object has ever gotten to the sun. The spacecraft, which is roughly the size of a car and has clocked in speeds of up to 365k mph (kph), zoomed into the sun’s atmosphere to gather data about the star in April. The data includes information about why the sun’s outer atmosphere is hotter than its surface, and may shed light on the origins of solar wind — a combination of hot gas and charged particles that blast into space from the sun’s surface. The probe is expected to make an additional 14 trips by 2025 to help answer more questions about the sun.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

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The new Spider-Man adds a “make love, not war” spin on traditional superhero flicks: We’ll try not to spoil anything for you, but the new Marvel film Spider-Man: No Way Home is definitely worth a watch in the cinema. The audience was super engaged and there were a handful of scenes where everyone started clapping (flight landing style). The film was full of surprises and will definitely act as a throwback to every Spider-Man film or video game you’ve ever played. Seriously, the surprises are awesome. The movie dives back into the multiverse and it really wreaks havoc on poor old Spider-Man.

An era of ‘woke’ superheros? This became apparent when they introduced a black Captain America, but it seems that Marvel is really targeting a ‘woke’ audience and this film is a huge example of that. Of course, there were some really badass fight scenes, but there was also a narrative of second chances and addressing your feelings and flaws that worked in some places during the film, but seemed too forced in others. Overall, we absolutely loved the new Spider-Man (even though the ending made us tear up) and we’re excited to see where this new take on superhero movies will take Marvel to next.

Don’t forget to sit through the credits: there are two scenes at the end that link the film to further Marvel multiverse releases. You can check out cinemas and showtimes at elcinema.com.

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⚽ Arab Cup finals: After being defeated 0-1 by Tunisia yesterday due to an own goal by our team in the last seconds of the match, Egypt will meet host Qatar in the match for third place next Saturday at 12pm. Qatar lost 1-2 in an exciting match yesterday against Algeria, which qualified to face Tunisia in the final at 5pm on Saturday.

Gameweek 17 of the English Premier League (EPL) resumes today with three important matches, and we hope that covid-19 will not cause any of them to be postponed. At 9:30pm, Leicester City faces Tottenham, and a quarter of an hour later, at 9:45pm, the Chelsea versus Everton match begins, while another quarter of an hour later, the Liverpool versus Newcastle match begins at 10pm.

Friday matches from around the world: There are a few matches that we recommend for tomorrow, the most important of which is Bayern Munich versus Wolfsburg in the German League at 9:30pm. In Italy, league leaders Salernitana will host Inter Milan at 10:15pm, while Lazio will play Genoa at 7:30pm and Celta Vigo and Espanyol will compete at 10pm.

As for Saturday:

EPL: Matchweek 18 (the last in the first round) of EPL begins with a match between Manchester United and Brighton at 2:30pm, followed by four matches at 5 pm: Aston Villa versus Burnley, Southampton versus Brentford, Watford versus Crystal Palace, and West Ham versus Norwich. Finally, the day ends with Leeds and Arsenal hitting the field at 7:30pm.

La Liga: Barcelona hosts Elche in the Spanish League at 7:30pm on Saturday, while Atletico Madrid goes out to face Seville at 10pm.

Serie A: Atalanta competes against Rome at 4pm before Bologna plays against Juventus at 7pm.

We bid farewell to Sergio Aguero, who retired from football permanently: The legendary Argentinian striker did not hold back his tears during the press conference held yesterday to announce the end of his 18-year football journey, during which he moved between the largest European clubs. His name and his accomplishments are etched in fans' minds and game records forever. Aguero said in a press release after the conference that he had conducted several medical tests, after which the doctors advised him to stop playing for the sake of his health. Aguero is the historical top scorer for Manchester City with 260 goals and the fourth top scorer in the English Premier League overall with 184 goals. He also helped his team receive the English Premier League title five times, and aided Argentina to take home the Copa America Cup 2021, and the gold medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, along with several other awards and titles.

We highly recommend watching Aguero's goal against Queens Park Rangers in 2012, which he scored in killer time to steal the Premier League title for Manchester City, kicking off the team’s journey to control the most important tournament in England (watch, runtime: 24:16).

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Newly opened The Diner has the food and the aesthetics: Taking inspiration from classic 50s diners in the US, the new Masr El Gedida eatery is all pink chairs, neon lighting, and the quintessential black and white checkered floors. However, it’s their food that really brings on the creativity. They have the diner must-haves including burgers, fries, and milkshakes, but also add more diversity on their menu. The Diner has cheesy hot Cheetos donuts, breakfast burritos, and a whole lot of pancakes. The joint currently is offering a Christmas menu that has hot chocolate (with a marshmallow snowman swimming in it), gingerbread man pancakes, and even a non alcoholic butterbeer for the Potterheads among you.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

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It’s opening night of group exhibit The Cheating Hand of Randomness, hosted by our friends at Gypsum Gallery. The exhibit features painting, film and photography by Tamara Al Samerraei, Basim Magdy and Cyrus Mahboubian that explore preoccupation with vast landscapes devoid of human inhabitants — a fitting concept during this time of collective uncertainty.

Beatles cover band Glass Onions are performing tonight at The Tap East at 9:30pm.

Aya Tarek’s exhibition Token is “Egypt’s first art collection for an NFT marketplace,” writes The National. The exhibit, running at the Kodak Passageway until 22 December, will see the digital art work sold on UAE NFT marketplace NFTY Arabia which is powered by NIFTY Souq. Tarek gained popularity as an artist for her colorful and defiant street art in her home city of Alexandria.

???? EARS TO THE GROUND-

In keeping with our accidental theme of cybersecurity, we bring you The Lazarus Heist — the BBC’s deep dive into North Korea’s elite cyberwarfare / cybercrime unit. The 10-episode investigation kicks off with how the hacker unit first came to the attention of the world when back in 2014 they released internal and embarassing emails of Sony Pictures executives after the Hollywood studio refused to pull the move ‘The Interview’ — a Seth Rogan comedy on the assassination of Kim Jong Un. It then shifts the spotlight on the unit’s most ambitious crime: The attempted theft of over USD 1 bn from the central bank of Bangladesh.

Beyond thoroughly tracking the crimes of the Lazarus Group, where the series truly shines is in the context it gives on the hermit nation. It dives into everything from cyberwarfare, to how transnational crime is a crucial source of FX for the Kim regime, to interviews with defectors on what life is like in North Korea, to the history of Korean emigres and how North Korea uses them. We have yet to find a podcast that taught us as much about the DPRK as this. You can catch the series on Apple Podcast and on Spotify.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

WHAT’S NEXT- Bootstrapping might seem like a bad word in startupland, but a lot of companies have managed to gain success without VCs. That concept is exactly what Basecamp’s Bootstrapped, Profitable, & Proud series of articles tries to highlight by profiling companies that have over USD 1 mn in revenues and continue to be profitable, all without the help of outside funding. The featured businesses operate in a number of sectors with different business ideas, but they have a few aspects in common: a good team, a solid business model, and a whole lot of creativity.

These firms identified gaps in the market and jumped in with solutions that utilized their existing resources at every stage. The series showcases everything from email marketing software Campaign Monitor and digital assets and services marketplace Envato, all the way to guitar effects pedal creators Z. Vex. The profiles are written in interview form and the founders divulge their origin stories, how they scaled, and the decisions they took along the way. Any aspiring entrepreneur would benefit from hearing these stories — and you never know, you might just get inspired along the way.

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.41 bn (2% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 7.6% YTD.

In the green: Palm Hills Development (+7.2%), Rameda (+5.1%) and Heliopolis Housing (+4.8%).

In the red: CIB (-1.5%), CIRA (-1.0%) and Ezz Steel (-0.7%).

Carrefour among supermarkets dropping Brazilian beef over deforestation connection: European supermarket chains Carrefour, J Sainsbury, and Ahold Delhaize are at the head of a movement by retailers to stop selling Brazilian beef products after an investigation (pdf) found that the country’s livestock industry contributes to the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, writes the Financial Times. “Cattle raising has become the main reason for clearing the largest tropical forest on the planet,” with pastures representing 65% of the land deforested in the Amazon, the 2021 Reporter Brasil investigation said.

Will this environmentally-friendly outlook trickle down to Carrefour’s branches in Egypt? So far, there is no indication of that happening, but the retailer has said it would “increase its surveillance in all its operating countries”. Egypt is a huge importer of Brazilian beef, with estimated imports of USD 784 mn in 2020, according to Trading Economics.

We reached out to Carrefour Egypt, who refused to comment on this matter.

Something else we may have to say goodbye to… coffee: The process of manufacturing coffee has led to everything from deforestation to high water consumption, meaning your morning cup of joe is effectively “destroying the planet,” writes CNBC. Over the last 30 years, growing demand for coffee has led to a 60% increase in production, according to research (pdf) by the International Coffee Organization.

But a group of scientists in Finland are trying to find another way to have our coffee without guilt: The VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland has found a way to produce coffee cells in a bioreactor through cellular agriculture, making it more environmentally friendly than the alternative, according to a press release. The first batches of the sustainable drink “smell and taste like conventional coffee,” the lab added. Another advantage is that coffee can now be produced anywhere under the right conditions and therefore removing the supply volatility in the industry. The only hiccup is the tech needed for the process is still too costly to be mass utilized — excluding of course the fact that drinking coffee from a lab is a bit of a sad concept.

Coffee really has had a tough year: Coffee prices have reached a 10-year high this year due to global supply constraints coupled with trouble brewing in major exporting regions. The problem has gotten so intense that some people have had to succumb to desperate measures to ensure their morning elixir (watch, runtime: 00:06).