Good morning, lovely people, and happy Monday. To our friends in the US marking Martin Luther King Jr. Day, we wish you a restful holiday. And to those who subscribe to the notion that this is the single most depressing day of the year, try dancing the bluest of Mondays away (watch, runtime: 4:07).

PSA- Expect more rain today: There’s a good chance of intermittent, light-to-medium showers across Greater Cairo and most other parts of the country today, according to an Egyptian Meteorological Authority statement. Our favorite weather app sees only sprinkles between 12 noon and 2pm in the capital city and a chance of showers in the early afternoon and early evening in Alexandria. Look for a daytime high of 17°C in Cairo and 18°C in Alex.

THE BIG STORY here at home: We’re getting a slight reprieve from all the EGP talk this morning after Chevron and Eni confirmed a “significant” gas find in the Eastern Mediterranean.

But first, your obligatory EGP WATCH- The EGP held steady against the USD yesterday, falling less than 0.01% to settle at 29.63, down from 29.61 at the start of the day, according to the official central bank rate. The currency remains down nearly 20% from its 24.79 / USD level immediately before the central bank allowed it to slip further against the USD on 4 January, as authorities transition to a fully flexible exchange rate as agreed with the IMF.

Keep an eye on trading dynamics after 10:30am CLT, when London traders hit their desks. London was off yesterday for the weekend, but the EGP gained on the USD last Wednesday and Thursday after 10:30am, suggesting flows out of London could be playing a role.

The central bank sells more t-bills on strong appetite: Yesterday’s treasury auction of three-month bills was more than 10x oversubscribed, receiving EGP 140.1 bn worth of bids on an EGP 13 bn sale, according to central bank figures. It ultimately sold EGP 87.1 bn worth of bills at a weighted average yield of 20.52%. The central bank also sold EGP 10.7 bn worth of nine-month bills at a weighted average yield of 21.48% in an auction that was 1.5x oversubscribed.

Local banks crack down on gold diggers: Banks are preparing lists of clients who it thinks are misusing their debit and credit cards to buy gold abroad using USD, putting pressure on our FX reserves, Shorouk News reports, citing unnamed banking sources. The CBE had previously instructed banks to notify it of any misuse of cards after noticing a spike in people using their debit and credit cards to secure FX from abroad despite having never left the country. Most major banks have introduced FX purchase and withdrawal limits abroad.

REMEMBER- Local gold prices saw record highs on the back of the EGP’s depreciation, with the price of 21-carat gold rising to EGP 1.8k in December.

FROM THE RUMOR MILL-

Some shareholders at Paint and Chemical Industries (Pachin) aren’t fully on board with Compass Capital’s valuation following last week’s depreciation of the EGP, Shorouk News reports, citing “informed sources.” Compass has offered to pay EGP 30 per share to acquire a majority stake in the company — valuing it at EGP 720 mn — and was last week given the all-clear by Pachin’s board to start due diligence. But in light of recent movements in the exchange rate — which last week saw the EGP lose more than 7% against the greenback — some shareholders now reportedly believe that the offer undervalues the company, the sources reportedly said.

This comes amid a bidding war that has seen Eagle Chemicals offer EGP 29.5 a share, a 1.7% premium to the price offered by UAE’s National Paints Holdings.

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HAPPENING TODAY-

Davos starts today: Global finance, business, politics, and media players will converge on the Swiss town this week to chew over the biggest challenges facing the planet. With “Cooperation in a Fragmented World” the chosen theme for this year’s World Economic Forum, expect discussions to be dominated by the war in Ukraine, deglobalization, and food and energy security.

Representing Egypt at this year’s event are Planning Minister Hala El Said and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat, who will take part in a number of panel discussions over the five days.

IT’S DOOM GLOOM IN THE BUSINESS PRESS as the jet set gathers on the slopes. “Top global companies write down bns as deals make way for gloom,” writes the Financial Times in its lead story this morning, adding that as much as “a third of the global economy [is] forecast to be in recession this year.” Two of the four big above-the-fold stories in this morning’s WSJ dance to the same tune, with the Journal noting that “declining international cooperation and commerce could shrink the global economy, particularly harming low-income countries.” It also notes that economists in its exclusive survey see a 61% chance of a recession in the United States in the coming 12 months even as inflation cools. (More on that last bit in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.)

MEANWHILE- Egypt beat Morocco 30-19 in the national team’s second match of the 2023 World Men’s Handball Championships yesterday. The victory comes after Egypt kicked off the tournament with their first-ever victory over Croatia. Egypt plays its next group stage match against the United States tomorrow at 7pm.

FM Shoukry in Abu Dhabi for sustainability week: Foreign Minister and COP27 President Sameh Shoukry will speak at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and hold bilateral talks on climate change during the Masdar-hosted event, according to a ministry statement. The gathering runs 14-19 January.

Go deeper: Read about the renewables pacts signed yesterday between the UAE and South Korea at the summit in this morning’s edition of Enterprise Climate.

IN THE HOUSE-

On the legislative agenda this week in the House:

• TODAY- The House Economic Affairs Committee will continue discussing the Unified Ins. Act. MPs will also discuss and vote on agreements that could see Egypt join three multilateral economic entities, as well as a draft law that allows the Oil Minister to contract the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Brenco to explore for oil offshore North Sinai.
• TOMORROW- Water and Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam will face questions from MPs.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at what 2023 holds for Egypt’s manufacturing sector.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s that time of year again: The Cairo International Book Fair will open its doors to the public at the International Exhibition Center in New Cairo on 26 January, according to Youm7. The event, which runs until 6 February, is expected to draw mns of visitors during the two weeks. More details about the fair will be revealed by Culture Minister Nevine El Kilany at a presser today, the Culture Ministry said Saturday.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: Could small schools solve classroom overcrowding?