Good morning, wonderful people. We’ve made it through another workweek together, and our reward is what can only be called one hell of a news day — a news day that reinforces what we think is fast becoming one of the dominant themes of 2022.

With just a bit more than 10% of the year behind us, it’s clear that we have very good friends in the Emirates. FAB is making a play for our friends at EFG Hermes not even two months after real estate giant Aldar and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ acquired our friends at SODIC. And just as FAB made its announcement yesterday, Aldar — a high-metabolism outfit — made clear it intends to continue growing in Egypt through acquisition.

This is bns of EGP worth of foreign investment pouring into the country from well-managed, well-governed, high-quality strategic investors who can literally choose to invest anywhere in the world. Their choice to come here is not just a ringing endorsement of what the teams at EFG Hermes and SODIC have built — it emphasizes Egypt’s position as an exceptionally promising place to build and grow a business. For all of the things (in the business world and outside) that we need to fix or improve, our macro, business and other fundamentals are very compelling — and the opportunities to grow are immense.

EFG’s own growth story underscores that: A flagship Egyptian multinational, EFG was born as a two-person consultancy back in the 1980s and has grown into a universal bank that encompasses the top emerging markets investment bank, a fast-growing non-bank financial services house, a commercial bank, and fintech properties all under the same roof. The offer is a ringing endorsement of the vision and hard work that Karim Awad and his team have put in over a sustained (and challenging) period.

Karim spoke with us about how he and his team have built out the institution in the first season of Making It, our seasonal podcast on how to build a great business here in Egypt (listen, runtime: 34:07).

And the icing on the cake: EFG Hermes’ investment bankers and brokerage team could be in for a really busy year (provided global investor sentiment holds).

Consider this:

IT’S A BIG DAY FOR CAPITAL MARKETS- Macro Group’s shares will begin trading on the EGX today under the ticker MCRO.CA. Macro raised EGP 1.3 bn in its IPO, which saw it sell 264.5 mn shares at EGP 4.85 apiece, valuing the cosmeceutical company at around EGP 2.8 bn. The institutional offering — which was allocated 95% of the shares — was 1.8x oversubscribed, while the retail component saw stronger demand, closing on Monday 102x oversubscribed. The crew at EFG Hermes quarterbacked the transaction.

Speaking of IPOs: NI Capital CEO Mohamed Metwally expects “a minimum of two, but up to four government-related public offerings this year," he told Reuters, saying that those are the transactions in which NI Capital is involved. “There are other entities that are involved in other transactions,” he added.

Officials have been talking a lot about the state’s listing pipeline lately. Last week, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said the government plans to sell shares in up to 10 state-owned companies on the EGX this year. Maait also pledged to restart the privatization program in March, a few days after Minister Hala El Said said that the government could sell stakes every month or two. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, meanwhile, said the government is looking to list “as many state companies as possible” on the EGX in 2022.

First up: Ghazl El Mahalla FC is set to offer a 67.5% stake in its IPO around about now, which is expected to raise a total of EGP 135 mn after attracting EGP 37 mn from institutional investors during the private placement. Further out, Heliopolis Housing and Development is eyeing a secondary offering, and state fertilizer producer Mopco also wants to tap the EGX. Misr Ins. Holding subsidiary Misr Life Ins. is looking at an IPO, while perennial candidate Banque du Caire could also make its EGX debut.

ALSO TODAY-

Inflation figures are due out today: Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November. Prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term due to an unfavorable base effect along with a global increase in consumer prices — but look set to stay within the central bank’s target range of 7% (±2%) by 4Q2022. The Central Bank of Egypt expects price stability in the medium term, it said last week following its monetary policy committee meeting. The government’s fuel pricing committee’s decision to raise fuel prices over the weekend is expected to have only a limited impact on inflation, analysts said.

Keep an eye on the US, which will release its own CPI data just a few hours later. The data, which will be released at 3:30pm CLT (8:30am EET), is expected to show another jump in inflation figures last month, with the consumer price index expected to rise 7.2% in January after rising to a 40-year record 7% in December. Any reading above the projected 7.2% could push the US Federal Reserve to tighten policy faster by implementing its first half-percentage-point rate hike in over two decades when it meets in March, where it is expected to kick-off a series of interest rate rises to bring inflation under control, Bloomberg reports. The Fed more customarily moves rate a quarter point at a time.

Budget consultations resume today: The Finance Ministry will begin the next round of public consultations on the draft FY 2022-2023 budget today.

PSA- Expect cooler weather today and tomorrow with the mercury peaking at 17°C both days and falling into the single digits overnight. That’s probably the last gasp of winter as the mercury looks set to return to the 21-24°C range for the following 10 days, our favourite weather app suggests.

The national weather service forecasts a chance of rain along the North Coast, in Cairo and other parts of the country today.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The crisis in Ukraine is on a slow simmer as it drops further down the front pages of the international press. US officials continue to brief that Russia has not stopped building up its military presence on its border with Ukraine, the Financial Times reports, while the US is sending troop reinforcements to Romania in case of “potential spillover” from the crisis, according to Reuters. All in all, while it's still too soon to call “storm-in-a-teacup” on this latest geopolitical kerfuffle, there is at least no new significant escalation to report.

The US papers, meanwhile, are squarely focused on — dare we say it? — the end of the pandemic. Several states including New York dropped blanket mask mandates on Wednesday, citing lower daily case numbers and hospitalizations, while covid-19 oracle and US chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci spurred further optimism when he said that the country was firmly “on the road to approaching normality.” The Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal all have coverage.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

There are two conferences taking place in Cairo next week:

• The Arab Sustainable Development Week will kick off on Sunday, 13 February and run through to Tuesday at the Arab League headquarters and the Nile Ritz Carlton.
• The three-day Egypt Petroleum Show (EGYPS) begins at the Egypt International Exhibition Center on Monday, 14 February, and runs until Wednesday.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will be in town this Friday, 11 February for a two-day visit that will see her meet with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and other officials for bilateral talks, the German Embassy in Cairo said in a statement. Baerbock is also expected to discuss potential collaboration between the two countries on the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh this November.

Keen on a trip to Kinshasa? EgyptAir will launch three direct weekly flights to the Congolese capital of Kinshasa starting 27 March, Al Mal reported yesterday. This marks the first direct air link between the two capitals. All Cairo-Kinshasa flights until 1 July will be 35% off, provided tickets are bought before the new line’s launch.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.