No tax breaks for SMEs coming

It was a ridiculously slow news day yesterday, as the House of Representatives’ rush to pass legislation before the summer recess — arguably, the most prominent news in both the local and foreign press this week — appears to be subsiding.

All that’s left now, is the Madbouly Cabinet’s policy program. The House is supposed to begin deliberation on this next Tuesday. The House committee tasked with reviewing the program has concluded its report and is recommending that a vote of confidence be given to the Madbouly Cabinet.

El Sisi should be landing in Sudan today to meet with Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the South Sudan peace process.

Trade and Industry Minister Amr Nassar is in Zambia for a COMESA council of ministers summit, Al Ahram reports. Nassar’s trip is set to wrap up tomorrow.

Hooray, we’re still the most undervalued currency as far as Big Macs are concerned: Egypt has the world’s cheapest Big Mac for yet another year, according to the Economist’s Big Mac Index picked up by Business Live. The EGP is trading at a discount of 68.2% to the USD based on how McDonald’s has priced its burgers here, the survey suggests. On the flipside, Switzerland retained the top spot as the most expensive country to get a Big Mac, suggesting that the CHF is 18.8% overvalued.

Do it. Bridge. You know you want to: Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly declared Monday, 23 July a public holiday for banks, the EGX, government offices and state-owned companies in observance of Revolution Day. Far be it for us to encourage taking an extra day off, we certainly could use it. As such, we will be taking a publication holiday on Monday and will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, 24 July.

Over on emerging markets zombieland, the rising USD has done no favors to EM stocks globally, with MSCI’s emerging market index slipping 0.2%. The broader benchmark was dragged lower by losses in Asia, where indexes in China mainland and Hong Kong lost 0.3%. The extra slide came after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that he “believes that – for now – the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate.” “It is having an impact since the market is thinking maybe rates will increase, which is not new, but maybe a bit quicker,” Sebastien Barbe, head of emerging markets research and strategy at Credit Agricole, tells Reuters.

But to some, the global trade war is the main the concern. “The next few months are risky for emerging markets mostly due to protectionist fears, because the other risk, the tightening of monetary policy in the U.S., is mostly priced in,” said Barbe, who added that a trade conflict could have a twofold impact on emerging markets in disrupting supply and trade links and also a correction of global stock markets which would spread to emerging equities and trigger capital outflows.

But the big dogs are bullish: Strategists and investors from Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton Investments and BlackRock appear unfazed by the apocalypse, stating that emerging markets are poised to stage a rally. For them, cheap prices, rising corporate profits and strong fundamentals outweigh risks from a tit-for-tat trade war, rising interest rates and potential U.S. recession. "We do like EM assets, particularly EM equities," Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief multi-asset strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, tells Bloomberg. "It’s a combination of the global growth backdrop, earnings expectations for emerging-market corporations and valuations."

The bulls, however, appear to be in the minority, a Bloomberg survey of 20 investors, traders and strategists showed that more than half of market participants expect the selloff in EM stocks and currencies to continue. “Pessimism towards developing-nation stocks is close to the highest level in 23 years,” according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Risk-Love indicator.

Big picture perspective says that EMs ability to get past the slump will depend on the fundamentals. That’s the lesson we’re taking from this excellent piece in the FT. It looks at “destiny instinct” — the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions or cultures (in other words, racism). It is easy to dismiss people from EMs such as sub-Saharan Africa as being constantly plagued by conflict and lack of development. The same was said of China once upon a time.

Globally, Morgan Stanley reported a 39% y-o-y increase increase in net profits for 2Q2018 to USD 2.4 bn, beating out the other top four in Wall Street who have collectively earned USD 5 bn, according to the salmon-colored paper.

As with the press, the airwaves were dry as your backyard this month, with the most interesting coverage was yesterday’s Cabinet meeting — which we cover in detail in Speed Round, below — with spokesman Ashraf Sultan.

The first phase of the state privatization program will be implemented over the coming few months, Sultan told Hona Al Asema without providing any further details on the timeline or size of the stake sales. Sultan then went on to explain the benefits of the program (watch, runtime: 5:33).

Reducing the minimum GPA required for university enrollment for North Sinai students is an exceptional decision in light of the conditions these students have undergone as a result of the ongoing anti-terrorist campaign in the turbulent region, Sultan told Hona Al Asema’s Lama Gebril and Al Hayah fi Masr’s Kamal Mady (watch, runtime: 5:33 and runtime: 6:12). Masaa DMC’s Osama Kamal also lauded the move as necessary to level the playing field for students going through exceptional circumstances (watch, runtime: 11:58).

Farmers’ concerns about rising fertilizer prices on the black market was a topic of concern on Yahduth fi Masr. According to Farmers’ Syndicate head Hussein Abu Saddam, fertilizers retail as much as EGP 5,600 per tonne on the black market, while they are sold through the government for EGP 3,290 per tonne. Abu Saddam blamed the Agriculture Ministry for limiting each farmer’s fertilizer allowance, which forces them to resort to the exorbitant prices of the black market. Ministry spokesman Hamed Abdeldayem brushed off Abu Saddam’s concerns, saying that the government’s pricing is fair and farmers should “cooperate” to help crack down on the black market (watch, runtime: 6:38).

A multi-ship collision in the Suez Canal has not slowed down maritime traffic, Suez Canal Authority boss Mohab Mamish told Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer. Mamish said that these collisions are nothing to be concerned about considering the volume of traffic passing through the canal, and went on to boast about the canal’s record profits from last year (watch, runtime: 7:28).

We probably haven’t uncovered Alexander the Great’s tomb: Speculation that the black granite sarcophagus unearthed in Alexandria belongs to Alexander the Great is completely false, Supreme Council of Antiquities head Mostafa Waziri said on Hona Al Asema. A team of archaeologists will open the sarcophagus today and put an end to the mystery (watch, runtime: 07:08).

CABINET WATCH- The Madbouly Cabinet officially signed off yesterday on the state privatization program, according to a statement. The statement provides no further details on the program, including the size of the offerings, or the timeline. The cabinet had announced on Tuesday that five already-listed state companies will pilot the privatization program with additional stake sales. A source had told us last month that Eastern Tobacco will likely pilot the program in September with a 4% stake sale.

Ministers approve new wheat shipments as GASC drops AOS as wheat supplier: The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has removed Dubai-based trader AOS from its list of approved suppliers, according to Reuters. The cabinet approved yesterday the purchase of 120k tonnes of wheat from two other traders to replace the shipments AOS had been contracted to provide. A GASC official said yesterday the two shipments have already arrived in Egypt, but did not disclose which trading firms supplied the cargoes, according to the newswire. GASC had canceled a wheat shipment from AOS in June after repeated delays in delivery. The company had been given two extensions for delivering the wheat but had failed to meet both deadlines, Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy said at the time.

Other decisions taken during the weekly meeting:

• Beginning negotiations with a Hassan Allam-led consortium to arrange a USD 4.4 bn loan to finance the 6 GW Hamrawein “clean coal” power plant whose contract the consortium won last month;
• Approving a EGP 2.5 bn direct order agreement with state-owned vaccine manufacturer Vacsera to supply serums and vaccines;
• Reducing the minimum GPA requirement for North Sinai students’ enrolment in university.

EXCLUSIVE- FinMin backtracks on massive tax breaks to SMEs for joining the formal economy: The Finance Ministry has formed a committee to revisit the draft SMEs Act, which lays out incentives for small businesses to join the formal economy, a government source told us this week. The committee wants to do away with the tax breaks and exemptions offered to SMEs in the current form of the draft law, the source said. “After further studying, international case studies have shown that offering tax breaks to those who don’t already pay taxes does not incentivize them to begin filing tax returns,” the source added.

Instead, the ministry will be guaranteeing a host of other non-tax incentives, the source added. This would include improving the business’ access to utilities, to end clampdowns by the authorities on unlicensed businesses, and facilitate funding for them through the central bank’s SME initiative.

There will be penalties for those that do not register with the tax authorities after the law has passed, the source warned. He did not name what these penalties could entail.

As for how the law would define SMEs, the source noted that the law will use the CBE’s definition, but will contain provisions that will allow the Finance Minister to amend it when need be. The CBE defines “micro enterprises” and businesses whose top line is less than EGP 1 mn. “Very small” businesses are classified as those making EGP 1-10 mn, while “small” businesses are defined as having a top line of EGP 10-20 mn. Medium enterprises are defined as those making annual revenues of EGP 20-100 mn.

Background: Tax exemptions had been at the root of the law back when it was drafted under former Finance Minister Amr El Garhy. Small businesses earning more than EGP 1 mn a year (and less than a ceiling that has yet to be determined) pay a nominal 1% tax on their revenues under new legislation now in the drafting stage, sources from the ministry told Enterprise. Small businesses earning anything below that amount will be divided into three tiers and charged a flat tax based on their top line.

Aur Capital, Wadi Degla set up real estate private equity JV: A subsidiary of former Investment Minister Ashraf Salman’s private equity outfit, Aur Capital, and Wadi Degla Real Estate signed yesterday an agreement to set up a real estate private equity JV, according to a joint statement (pdf). The agreement will see Aur Capital acquiring an undisclosed stake in Wadi Degla through a capital increase and a share swap in the new firm. Ownership will be split 70/30, with Wadi Degla holding the balance. The JV is expected to invest some EGP 10 bn over the course of the next five years. Arab Legal Consultants acted as legal counsel on the transaction.

Gov’t inks contract with OC-led consortium for USD 650 mn, 500 MW Gulf of Suez wind farm: The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) signed a USD 650 mn agreement with a consortium comprised of Orascom Construction (OC), Engie, and Toyota Tsusho Corporation to build a 500 MW wind farm in Ras Gharib, OC announced in an emailed statement (pdf). “With this milestone in place, the required steps and documentation leading to the start of construction, including financial close, are expected to be complete by 3Q or 4Q2019,” OC says. Cabinet’s economic group had approved the project’s contract back in April. The consortium is also working on another USD 400 mn, 250 MW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez, which it expects to deliver by 2H2019.

Gov’t and OHC settle Haram City land dispute: The Madbouly Cabinet has signed off on a settlement with Orascom Housing Communities (OHC) over the disputed development of 1,380 feddans in the Haram City affordable housing project, government sources confirmed to Bloomberg. Under the settlement, OHC, which is majority owned by Orascom Development Holding Chairman Samih Sawiris, and the authority will partner to develop 1,000 feddans of the disputed land, said ODH CEO Khaled Bichara. “We expect to sign the final revenue sharing agreement with NUCA soon,” Bichara said, adding that the government will build its own social housing project on the remaining 380 acres.

Background: The dispute arose when NUCA provided only 620 feddans from an originally contracted 2,000 feddans, prompting a number if investors in the project (one of whom was involved in the East Mediterranean Gas arbitration case) to file an international arbitration suit. The investors were seeking compensation of as much as USD 100-200 mn, Sawiris tells Bloomberg. The arbitration case was dropped after Sawiris bought out the investors. The settlement with NUCA had been reached back in April and was awaiting government sign off.

IPO WATCH- CIRA taps French law firm Gide to join White & Case as international counsel for planned share offerings: Cairo Investment and Real Estate Development (CIRA) has reportedly tapped French law firm Gide Loyrette Nouel as joint legal council for its planned international offering, alongside White & Case, according to a source close to the offering. The firm is planning to relist 35% of the company’s shares on the EGX in a transaction that could come as early as October. Some 80-90% of the shares on offer would be reserved for an institutional offering, sources had told us previously. EFG Hermes is global coordinator and bookrunner for the transaction, while Zulficar & Partners is local counsel to the underwriter.

The EGPC signed yesterday a USD 9 mn oil and gas exploration and production agreement with the Apache Corporation in the Western Desert, the Oil Ministry announced in a statement. The agreement also includes a USD 30 mn signing bonus to dig seven wells in the area.

EARNINGS WATCH- Juhayna Food Industries reported a net profit of EGP 159 mn in 1Q2018, up from EGP 27.3 mn during the same period last year, according to a company earnings release (pdf). Revenues during the quarter were up 23% y-o-y to EGP 1.928 bn.

We did it with tourism. Is it auto’s turn? Egypt’s auto market is expected to resume its recovery throughout this year, with auto sales projected to rise 18-25% y-o-y during 2018, Automotive Information Council (AMIC) senior official Rafaat Masrouga said, Al Mal reports. Masrouga estimates that between 160-170,000 vehicles are expected to be sold this year. He noted that even if sales meet the projections, it is far too soon to say if the industry has returned to its heyday. Auto sales rose 39% y-o-y in the first five months of the year, with Chevrolet and Hyundai capturing the largest market shares.

Business associations press gov’t on lowering taxes, fees on manufacturing: A number of business associations have publically come out to urge the government to reduce fees and taxes for industry yesterday. The Union of Investors Associations (the commies that bleed green) is urging the Finance Ministry to end real estate taxes on industry land, Al Mal reports. If it refuses, the association will push for a plan whereby they pay taxes for land not in use by a factory, said the association’s head Mohamed Farid Khamis. Meanwhile, the Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI) is pushing the Industrial Development Authority to lower fees it charges industrialists for its services, said FEI investment committee member Hassan Mabrouk.

LEGISLATION WATCH- Parliament approves legislation cutting ministerial, governor pensions: The House of Representatives’ general assembly approved on Tuesday a new law to reduce the pensions of ministers, governors, and their deputies, according to Egypt Today. Under the law, pensions for these positions will be reduced to 25% of their pre-retirement wages, down from an original 80%. The new law will be applied retroactively until 24 April, 2018, Al Mal reports.

OTMT rebranding received regulatory approval: Orascom Telecom Media and Technology Holding (OTMT) has received regulatory approval to officially change its name to Orascom Investment Holding, according to a statement to the bourse.

Egypt and the UAE will impose new regulations on the trade of agricultural products between the two countries, according to Al Mal. The regulations, which Agriculture Minister Ezz El Din Abou Steit and UAE Ambassador Gomaa Mubarak agreed upon yesterday, stipulate the six-month suspension of trade with exporters whose shipments are rejected for sanitary reasons. All exporters will be required to submit a phytosanitary certificate and a product lab analysis to the Agricultural Quarantine Authority. Repeat violations will result in the exporter bearing the shipment costs and facing suspension for another six months. The new regulations will be applied on fruits and vegetables shipments sourced from both countries. Several countries, including Saudi Arabia, have been imposing new regulations on shipments of Egyptian agricultural products after several shipments were found to contain high levels of residual pesticide.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is set to inaugurate the three 14.4 GW Siemens combined-cycle power plants in Burullus, Beni Suef and the new capital next Tuesday, according to government sources.

El Sisi might also be visiting Beijing in September to attend the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.

The sixth National Youth Conference is set to be taking place by the end of this month. Organizers have opened the floor for the public to submit questions for El Sisi to respond to during the conference through the “Ask the President” initiative. The upcoming edition will be directed towards university students, but it remains unclear where it will be held.

Our friends at the American Chambers of Commerce (AmCham) will be hosting Finance Minister Mohamed Maait for its monthly luncheon on Monday, 30 July. Maait, who will address AmCham for the first time as Finance Minister, will discuss Egypt’s financial reform agenda. You can register for the event here.

Topping coverage of Egypt in the foreign press for the third straight morning is the House of Representatives passing the Press and Media Act, as the news filters down to the wider media landscape. As with yesterday’s coverage the focus was squarely on media censorship. The Wall Street Journal is making comparisons between the law and similar legislation in China, to make the point that the internet is being walled off throughout the Middle East. Coverage from the likes of the AP and Newsweek are particularly honing in on the social media provisions of the law, which classify accounts of over 5,000 followers as media outlets and thus subject to regulation.

So you can have an idea how slow the news day is: The second most featured story on Egypt was that mysterious 2000-year old sarcophagus in Alexandria, who some are claiming could help find the tomb of the Alexander the Great.

Do foreign residents even want the Egyptian citizenship? The recently-passed law allowing foreign residents to obtain the Egyptian citizenship in exchange for a EGP 7 mn bank deposit does not seem to be very well thought out, Ashraf El Barbary writes for Al Shorouk. El Barbary wonders whether any feasibility studies were conducted on the move, and whether there are actually any foreign residents who have voiced their willingness to “buy” the citizenship if there were a law allowing it. The biggest issue, however, is that buying into a citizenship is meant to provide perks such as a passport that allows visa-free travel, or top notch public services, which Egypt is unable to provide for its existing nationals.

What do you do when your company’s charismatic founder goes cuckoo? Make sure you have a succession plan. It is looking increasingly certain that we have moved beyond the age of worshipping gilded titans and company founders. We are now in an age of their annoying younger brothers, or as the FT’s Brooke Masters puts it, “entrepreneurs who succeeded initially but then failed to come up with a succession plan — or worse, stayed on so long that they became an embarrassment or a hindrance to the company.” “Focusing a company around a charismatic founder makes a lot of sense early on. It can help create a compelling story that attracts top-quality staff as well as customers,” says Noam Wasserman, a University of Southern California professor. But there are also “heightened risks [that] come when the infallible founder has strong control of company decisions, with no real checks on him”, Wasserman warns.

The case studies pile up: Masters does a great job in racking up the list of companies who failed to plan for their founders exit. There was Papa John’s founder John Schnatter, whose railing against the NFL protests and racial slurs forced the company to fire him, leaving it without a leader. Uber founder Travis Kalanick’s fall was well documented. And while his replacement Dara Khosrowshahi has stepped up, his early moments in the driver’s seat was marked by a focus to change the tone and defuse regulatory fights. WPP founder Martin Sorrell’s exit is a case in point, after he left amid allegations of personal misconduct. Three months on, WPP is still being led by its chairman.

The answer? Look to big finance: Wasserman suggests that the smartest path is to plan for a staged withdrawal, much as the big private equity firms Blackstone, Carlyle and KKR are starting to do with their founding partners. “Each firm has elevated likely successors and is giving them time to settle in.”

BBC names Egyptian feminist Huda Shaarawi among African women who changed the world: At a time when Egyptian women were denied their basic rights in Egyptian society, Huda Shaarawi emerged as a feminist revolutionary figure who called for equal access to education and deconstructing various taboos that held back Egyptian women. The BBC honors Shaarawi in its series on eight African women who changed the world “whose stories deserve to be heard” (watch, runtime: 2:15).

Egypt, UNDP sign declaration of intent for grant to support Sinai development project: Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr inked yesterday a letter of intent for a grant from the UN Development Programme to support the government’s development of the Sinai peninsula, according to a ministry statement. The value of the grant was not disclosed. The government has recently been shopping around for loans and grants to finance the government’s ambitious plans for Sinai’s development. Nasr was reportedly in talks with World Bank on USD 1 bn loan to develop Sinai. The Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development had also pledged three grants of USD 2.8 mn in total to support the development projects.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi repeated his pledge to bring to justice the killers of Italian researcher Giulio Regeni at a meeting with Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini in Cairo yesterday, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The two also discussed anti terrorism cooperation, as well as regional issues of concern including illegal immigration and the Libya crisis.

Egypt brokers new reconciliation accord between Fatah, Hamas: Hamas has reportedly accepted Egypt’s proposed new reconciliation accord with rival faction Fatah, according to the Jerusalem Post. Senior Hamas officials said that Egypt “exerted heavy pressure” on Hamas to accept the terms of the agreement and reconcile with Fatah to form a national unity government.

The Trade and Industry Ministry will not impose anti-dumping duties on Saudi steel imports, and will not investigate allegations that KSA is dumping its products in Egypt, head of the ministry’s anti-dumping department Ibrahim Al Segeny tells Al Mal. Anti-dumping tariffs are only imposed on Turkish, Chinese, and Ukrainian steel, El Segeny noted. Local steel manufacturers had called earlier this month for further anti-dumping duties on steel imports amid fears that Saudi, Omani and Greek steel exporters may flood the market.

The Housing Ministry signed yesterday a EUR 30 mn grant agreement with the German International Cooperation Agency (GIZ) to develop the infrastructure in nine slum areas in Cairo, Amwal Al Ghad reports. The projects, financed by the European Union and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, will be implemented in cooperation with Egypt’s Slum Development Fund.

MOC Petroleum Recycling is planning to invest EGP 270 mn to establish a new waste tire and rubber recycling plant in Giza this year, VP Yehia Rafik tells Al Mal. The plant is expected to recycle 500 tonnes per day, Rafik said. The operating license for the plant is expected to be issued in the next few days.

SICO Technology has exported the first batch of its Egyptian-made Nile X smartphones and SICO Express 3 tablets to Kuwait, CEO Mohamed Salem tells Al Mal. The first batch includes 1200 smartphones and 2000 tablets, Salem adds. Nile X, which was introduced during Cairo ICT last year and went on sale locally back in February, is currently sold in the UAE and is expected to debut in Saudi Arabia and Oman over the coming few months.

SMG Engineering Automotive, the distributor of Porsche cars in Egypt, is planning to launch the all-electric Porsche Taycan in Egypt by 2020, SMG boss Ibrahim El Ghattas tells Al Mal. SMG is currently in talks with Porsche AG to test the Egyptian market’s appetite for the cars. Taycan cars will debut in European markets by 2H2019.

Around 200 Egyptian companies and “hundreds” of foreign companies have applied for prequalification for the tender to manage and operate the Grand Egyptian Museum’s facilities, GEM supervisor Tarek Tawfik said yesterday. The USD 1 bn museum will host a number of facilities, including a conference center, cinema, and restaurants. Investors have until 21 August to submit their documents for prequalification. Tawfik did not disclose when the list of qualified companies will be announced.

British Senior Defense Advisor John Lorimer met yesterday with several Egyptian Armed Forces officials in Cairo to discuss “shared challenges and threats” and security cooperation between Egypt and the UK, Ahram Online reports. Lorimer stressed the UK’s commitment to improving Egypt’s security, which he said is a key component of safeguarding the UK’s safety.

Egyptian winger Mahmoud “Trezeguet” Hassan’s move to Czech football club SK Slavia Prague has fallen through, King Fut reports. Slavia Prague had reportedly agreed to pay the EUR 5 mn required to release Trezeguet from his current contract with Kasimpasa — the Turkish club Trezeguet currently plays for. However, the transfer “didn’t work out” after the Czech club’s manager traveled to Turkey to put ink to paper. The winger will now remain with the Turkish team.