PM — We’re up in the Afcon quarter final today

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to a new week, and a holiday drought that is sticking around until late April, when Sham El Nessim rolls around. We hope you made this most recent long weekend really count.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY

#1- Our debt won’t become Euroclearable before 2H2022, CNBC quotes Finance Minister Mohamed Maait as saying, signaling that the process of meeting the European clearinghouse’s requirements is taking longer than anticipated. Maait had said in September that Egypt had already satisfied 95% of the requirements, signaling we could reach a final agreement that would allow our local debt to be cleared in Europe by March of this year. Enterprise is reaching out to the Finance Ministry for more details.

#2- The EU has filed a challenge against Egypt at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over our compulsory import registration requirements, saying these requirements are “arbitrary,” the bloc said in a statement on Wednesday. Egypt and the EU have 60 days to try to reach a resolution for the matter through the dispute settlement consultations the EU has requested. If these consultations fail, the EU can request that the WTO set up a panel to rule on the matter. Enterprise is reaching out to the Trade Ministry for further information.

^^ We’ll have more on these stories in tomorrow’s edition of EnterpriseAM.

Also, today: FRA donates EGP 500 mn to Decent Life, “Differently Abled” initiatives: The Financial Regulatory Authority is donating EGP 500 mn from its budget surplus to the Sisi administration’s Decent Life initiative and the program to support individuals with disabilities, in a bid to support the government’s social intervention programs, according to a statement (pdf).

HAPPENING NOW-

Amendments to the Real Estate Registry Act are currently being discussed at the House of Representatives, where a joint committee of the House Constitutional and Legislative Committee and the House Planning and Budgeting Committee are looking at the bill. The proposed changes, which the Madbouly Cabinet approved in November, are expected to significantly trim the painstaking registration process by waiving the need to obtain pre-approval at the real estate registry office prior to obtaining the final seal and putting a time ceiling on the entire process.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• CBE to shake off Fed tightening, keep rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday despite forecasts for rising inflation at home and higher interest rates abroad, our regular poll of analysts shows.
• Africa-focused VC firm TLcom Capital plans to enter Egypt with its new fund, which hit a first close of USD 70 mn.
• We’re getting a fresh USD 368 mn loan from the AMF: Egypt will receive a USD 368 mn loan from the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) to help strengthen its financial position and meet “emergency needs” amid challenges caused by the ongoing pandemic.

---

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The world is still on Ukraine Watch this afternoon, albeit with few developments since we last wrote to you this morning. The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post are each running a feature story on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and a “likely target” for Russian invasion, where it says anti-Russian sentiment is growing.

Subscribe to Enterprise

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

PSA FOR (EARLY STAGE) FOUNDERS- Today is your last chance to apply for the spring 2022 cycle of EGBank’s Mint Incubator. The incubator offers two tracks: A sector-agnostic track for startups at the MVP stage and a fintech track that accepts early-stage startups both at the ideation and MVP stages. Main founders must be between 16-35 years old. You can apply here.

The US Embassy in Cairo is now accepting applications for Cultural Property Agreement Implementation projects that would help Egypt protect its cultural property from looting, theft, and illicit trafficking. The guidelines state that concept notes should be sent in by this Thursday, 3 February, while shortlisted applicants will need to submit full applications by 4 May. Each project will receive USD 50-100k per project, with around USD 500k earmarked for the entire program.

OPEC+ will meet this Wednesday, 2 February: The cartel is expected to agree to another gradual oil production increase, hiking supply by 400k bbl / day in March. Planned production increases by the cartel have so far failed to meet the recovery in demand as several member countries struggle to up their output. The tightening of the oil market has pushed prices to a seven-year high this month. Some analysts say Brent could breach the USD 100 / bbl mark this year unless supply is increased.

The Cairo International Book Fair continues today at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event runs through to 7 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Expect the mercury to rise to 15°C during the day tomorrow before falling to 9°C at night, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s already been a rough start to 2022 for the world’s wealthiest — except the Oracle of Omaha: The sell-off in tech stocks this month is biting into the net worths of the world’s richest people, with Tesla’s Elon Musk shedding USD 54 bn so far and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos’ net worth tumbling USD 27.8 bn, CNBC reports. Google’s founders and Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg lost a combined total of more than USD 39.2 bn. Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett, however, bucked the trend, seeing his net worth grow some USD 2.4 bn to reach USD 111 bn, surpassing Zuckerberg and reclaiming the sixth spot in the global wealth rankings, according to the Bloomberg B’naires Index. The reason? His firm belief in value investing, according to experts, which entails picking undervalued stocks that appear to be trading for less than they should be. Buffett’s widely diversified portfolio has also helped him weather the tech-storm.

Meta might not get its cryptocurrency after all: Meta / Facebook is seeing its dreams of launching a stablecoin crumble after regulatory pressure is pushing the company to sell its assets, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter. The Diem Association (formerly known as Libra) is considering the sale in an attempt to return capital to its investors and is currently in discussions about how to best sell the IP while retaining its engineers’ jobs. It is still unclear how a potential buyer would value Diem, the sources said. The project was expected to take off when Diem struck a partnership with Silvergate Capital to issue the Diem USD stablecoin, but the initiative has faced significant pushback, including from the US Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk wants to pay for his Happy Meal with Dogecoin: The Tesla CEO egged on McDonalds on Twitter saying he would eat a Happy Meal on TV if the fast food chain started accepting meme-based cryptocurrency Dogecoin, to which McDonald’s replied, “Only if Tesla accepts grimacecoin,” in reference to the purple character that is friends with McDonald’s mascot Ronald McDonald. Musk has been increasingly touting Dogecoin, earlier this month saying that Tesla would accept the crypto as payment for some merchandise.

We can’t help but wonder whether Joe Rogan was worth the USD 100 mn and the headache for Spotify: A handful of artists are pulling their music from streaming platform Spotify to take a stand against podcast host Joe Rogan spreading what they say is covid misinformation. Last week, multi-Grammy award-winning singer Neil Young, who has 6 mn monthly listeners on Spotify, was the first artist to remove his music from the platform, protesting Rogan’s misinformation and reportedly losing 60% of his streaming income worldwide as a result. Singer-songwriter Joni Mitchell joined Young yesterday, reports the Financial Times, but Spotify appears to be steadfast in its decision to keep Rogan’s content on its platform. In 2020, Spotify paid Joe Rogan USD 100 mn to host his podcast exclusively on the platform — a move that has brought the platform under heat for its association with the commentator. Its choice to side with the popular podcaster rather than with its artists has left some columnists speculating that Spotify has become a tech company looking to beef up its bottomline by growing its podcasting portfolio. Last year, Spotify reportedly overtook Apple podcasts in the US.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

(all times CLT)

Tiffany Haddish delivers a genuine performance as a detective in Apple TV+’s The Afterparty: The show is created by Chris Miller, who also produced the series with his longtime collaborator, Phil Lord. The duo is the same one that’s behind Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and the 21 Jump Street movies. The Afterparty is set in the aftermath of a high school reunion party where the host and pop star (played by Dave Franco) fell to his death. The audience follows Tiffany Haddish as she investigates the group of partygoers and with each retelling of events, the series changes genre from action to musical to rom-com. Haddish opted out of reading ahead in the scripts, giving the guessing game a more genuine feel as she tries to figure out who the real murderer is in each episode right along with the audience, writes the Wall Street Journal. New episodes drop every Friday — you can check out the trailer here: (watch, runtime: 02:37).

⚽ Egypt is facing off against Morocco in today’s Afcon quarter-final clash, which kicks off at 5pm. The Pharaohs booked their place in the last eight on Wednesday by inching past Côte d’Ivoire via a penalty shoot-out after a goalless draw. The game was another unconvincing performance from Egypt, who has only scored twice this tournament but managed to keep clean sheets for three consecutive games thanks to a stable defense.

Sports Minister Ashraf Sobhi has promised each player a “reward” if we manage to beat Morocco as a way to motivate them to bring their A game to today’s match, the ministry’s spokesperson said on TV, reports KingFut.

Tonight’s match could also decide the fate of Al Ahly: The club could be forced to play their first fixture in FIFA’s Club World Cup in the UAE on 5 February without six of the team’s best players, who will be busy playing for the Pharaohs should they advance, Reuters notes.

The victors of tonight’s match will face Cameroon — who knocked Gambia out of the tournament in a 2-0 victory yesterday’s match.

Meanwhile, Senegal and Equatorial Guinea will play their quarter-final Afcon match at 9pm.

Egypt’s Pyramids FC announced the signing of Burkina Faso midfielder Blati Toure immediately after the end of the latter's meeting with Tunisia in Afcon yesterday. Toure was given the Player of the Match award for the second time in a row and the third overall during the current tournament. The 27-year-old has previously played for several clubs in Spain, France, and Portugal.

The Egyptian League Cup is up and running as we dispatch: There are three matches that kicked off at 2pm: El Masry versus Eastern Company, Pyramids versus El Makassa, and Al Ahly versus National Bank.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Lotus sahlab, balah el sham, and… chicken teriyaki? Bosco has it all: The restaurant, located in Heliopolis and New Cairo, is bringing the winter warmth with a special menu that has balah el sham and a selection of sahlab — both of which we tried, and both of which were commendable. On a warmer day, Bosco is also a great place to grab a deliciously cooked meal with big portions. They have everything from sandwiches, pastas, and main courses to savory and sweet feteer. We really liked their chicken teriyaki, chicken pesto mozzarella, and cajun shrimp pasta. For appetizers, we like to try a bit of everything so the sampler platter didn’t disappoint. End the meal on a sweet note with their cream and halawa feteer or their cookie dough skillet.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

(all times CLT)

The Bibliotheca Alexandrina Orchestra is on stage tonight at the Cairo Opera House at 8pm to perform their Strings Masterpieces concert.

It’s game night today at Medrar, featuring retro game consoles from the 80s and 90s, PC and Arduino games, and even a few newer VR games. The event runs from 6-10pm.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Read this hilarious guide on how to manage Jerks at Work, courtesy of social psychologist Tessa West who has spent years finding solutions to intrapersonal conflicts in the workplace. She outlines the seven most common toxic people you’ll find at work and details each one’s inner workings and weak points to be able to interact with (or stop them in their tracks) when necessity dictates. These include the kiss up, the gaslighter, the bulldozer (won’t let anyone else get a chance to talk), and the freerider. The book has good tips and acts as a playbook if really needed, but it’s also a hilarious read as West pokes fun at nearly everything in her very realistic depiction of modern office politics.

MARKET NEWS-

Obour Land recorded a 13% y-o-y increase in its bottom line in 2021 to EGP 350.7 mn, according to the company’s financials (pdf). Obour Land’s revenues increased 10% y-o-y to EGP 3 bn in 2021.

Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling’s bottom line rose 14.8% y-o-y in the first half of FY2021-22 to EGP 717.8 mn, according to a bourse filing (pdf). The company’s revenues increased 2% y-o-y to EGP 1.1 bn during the period.

MARKET ROUNDUP-

The EGX30 fell 0.4% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 446 mn (60.2% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were net buyers. The index is down 4.1% YTD.

In the green: Ezz Steel (+1.1%), AMOC (+0.8%) and Orascom Development Egypt (+0.8%).

In the red: TMG Holding (-3.2%), Pioneers Properties (-2.4%) and GB Auto (-2.3%).

The different faces of the carbon market — and what its future could look like: In some economies, the carbon emissions market is mandated for specific sectors and gases, acting as trading markets where carbon-emitting firms can buy top-ups for their emission allowances as well as sell their excess allowances to other firms. This model effectively makes super-polluters pay while financially rewarding those with low carbon footprints. Other countries have set up voluntary carbon markets, collecting payments from private donors, companies, foundations, and potentially even other countries, and then pay emitters to reduce their CO2 emissions internally. Meanwhile, the carbon offset market sees companies pay external firms to do the climate mitigation instead of implementing it themselves, either due to high cost or lack of technical knowledge.

How do countries price carbon? Governments price carbon by linking it to the external costs of emissions such as damage to crops and health care costs from heat waves and droughts or to property from flooding and sea level rise, according to the World Bank. The price on carbon shifts back the cost of damage to those who are responsible for it. “Instead of dictating who should reduce emissions where and how, a carbon price gives an economic signal and polluters decide for themselves whether to discontinue their polluting activity, reduce emissions, or continue polluting and pay for it,” the bank writes.

The concept is gaining traction: The EU launched the first large-scale emissions trading scheme in the world in 2005 as part of its climate policy, writes the Guardian. However, after the 2008 financial crisis and the resulting collapse of economic activity, the supply of emissions allowances was more than the demand — creating a very weak carbon price for years. After a series of reforms, the EU market has picked up speed and is on track to keep growing as economies rebound after the pandemic.

Meanwhile, China opened the world’s largest emissions trading market last year, covering 40% of its emissions, and 12% of global emissions, as part of the country’s aim to become “net zero” by 2060. China will also use a declining cap to ensure emissions fall every year. Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Switzerland, and the US are also working to implement carbon market schemes.

While the overall market is still nascent, it is expected to become quite lucrative if it is implemented efficiently: The combined value of the world’s carbon markets reached USD 272 bn in 2020, a five-fold increase since 2017. The global carbon market could be worth USD 22 tn by 2050, energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimates, reports the Wall Street Journal. The value of the market could exceed the oil market’s value by 2030 and possibly even by 2025 depending on how quickly regulation is implemented, Trafigura’s Hannah Hauman had previously told the WSJ.

The keyword is ‘if’: The price of carbon offsetting may soar — or plummet — depending on the outcome of the carbon debates, reported BloombergNEF based on its Long-Term Carbon Offset Outlook 2022 published earlier this week. The question will be whether all types of offsets will be permitted, which may result in a largely worthless oversupply of credits, or if the market will restrict credits to offsets that “remove, store and sequester carbon,” creating an insufficient supply of credits to meet rising demand from corporations and countries.

To get bigger, the carbon market needs to get more restrictive first: According to the report, if all forms of the carbon market are implemented, market prices would be kept as low as USD 11 per tonne by 2030 and USD 47 per tonne by 2050. Low carbon prices will signal that there is an oversupply of largely worthless credits in the market and attract criticism around quality, Bloomberg writes. Alternately, many climate organizations are pushing for the market to only cover offsets that store or sequester carbon rather than avoiding it. This market evolution would push prices up to a whopping USD 224 per tonne by 2029 before settling at USD 120 per tonne by 2050, threatening a supply shortfall. A third, hybrid scenario phases the offset market from a voluntary market for companies to a removal-only market for companies and finally, to a removal-only market for countries by 2050. In this scenario, prices would reach USD 48 per tonne in 2030 and spike in 2031, only to fall to USD 99 per tonne by mid-century.

Carbon capture is expected to be one of the biggest topics at COP27 at Sharm El Sheikh later this year. Energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimated that the global carbon market could be valued at USD 22 tn by 2050, though lead author of BloombergNEF’s report estimates that the market is likely to be valued at closer to USD 550 bn.