It’s a 5-day weekend — see you all back here on Tuesday

Rejoice, friends: We’re getting a five-day break. The long-awaited announcement from the Madbouly Cabinet for the Labor Day, Coptic Easter and Sham El Naseem holidays is out — and it certainly did not disappoint.

The days off:

• Thursday, 29 April is off in observance of Sinai Liberation Day
• Saturday, 1 May is an official day off for public and private sector alike in observation of Labor Day
• Sunday, 2 May has been officially declared a bridge holiday for the public and private sector, “to help stem any potential fallout from increased covid infections,” read the cabinet statement. As it is Easter, it is a statutory holiday for Christians and is traditionally a bank holiday.
• Monday, 3 May is a day off for the public and private sectors on the occasion of Sham El Nessim.

Enjoy them responsibly.

The central bank has also given banks the green light to close their doors for the next five days and resume work on Tuesday, 4 May, in a statement that came out at noon.

We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday at our appointed hours, starting with EnterpriseAM at 6am CLT.

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It’s still the unofficial investment news issue: What better way to end the workweek than with the busiest afternoon for news we’ve seen all week. Topping local business news: Misr Capital partnering with Elevate Private Equity to launch a USD 380 mn healthcare investment platform that will look at Egypt and the rest of Africa.

Investment coverage continues with Apache’s JV with the Oil Ministry vowing to spend USD 1.1 bn in the next fiscal year. We cover these in more detail in the Speed Round below.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Reform agenda 2.0: Egypt will embark on a three-year program of structural reforms designed to support private sector-led economic growth and capitalize on recent economic reforms, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced yesterday.
• Bad covid numbers: Official covid cases topped 1k per day for the first time since mid-January, as Egypt’s covid stimulus spending surpassed EGP 100 bn.
• Russia, we love you: The full resumption of Russian flights to Egypt could eventually generate some USD 3 bn in tourism revenues, according to Goldman Sachs.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT- It’s interest rate day in both Egypt and the US tonight. The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee should be out with an announcement late this afternoon, and we’ll hear from the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee later in the evening.

It’s been almost conventional wisdom at this point that the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will likely hold on moving rates today, with all 14 economists and analysts we polled saying so. Bloomberg’s own poll of 10 economists concurs.

It’s all about maintaining the affection of folks who love themselves a good carry trade, which we’ve been good at: Deutsche Bank AG is still overweight on Egyptian debt, saying in a note to clients picked up by Bloomberg that Egypt “remains the preferred local market among the frontiers and we find risk-reward even more attractive than in Turkey.”

But is there actual scope for further cuts without endangering it? A top Goldman Sachs economist seems to think so: “There is a tension between what is good for the domestic economy and what is good for external finances. But we believe rates could go significantly lower before portfolio investors start to get turned off Egypt,” Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg. Going against the grain, he expects the CBE to make 50 bps cut.

Not helping matters are rising US yields, with the 10-year rate traded at a two-week high as investors await clues on the timing of stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve, Bloomberg reports. Rising US yields make them cheaper and tempt investors Westwords. Want to know what rising US yields means for us at home? Read our analysis piece here.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD– Brexit is officially over: Members of the EU Parliament have ratified the bloc’s post-Brexit trade agreement with the UK, removing the final legal hurdle to open trade between both sides, reports the Associated Press. The ratification permanently brings the agreement into force as it had already been ratified by the UK parliament and conditionally took effect when it was finalized on Christmas eve.

THE BIG BUSINESS STORY ABROAD- Saudi Aramco could sell off a 1% stake to a major global energy in a USD 19 bn transaction in the next two years, in a bid to grow local sales, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said in an interview with Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 36:06). The agreement “could be very important in strengthening Aramco’s sales in the country,” he said. Other talks are also taking place with companies to take smaller shares in Aramco, while a stake in the oil firm will be transferred to the public investment fund, he added.

** So, when do we eat? On the 16th day of Ramadan, we’ll break our fasts at 6:30pm. Get your fill of water, food, and caffeine before 3:40am.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Gouna International Squash Open 2021, a PSA event, will run 20-28 May with 96 men and women competing. The event has the backing of our friends at CIB.

???? FOR YOUR COMMUTE-

MORNING MUST READ- How a fake burger ban in the US exposed the growing cultural battle over climate policy: Right-wing pundits in the US have been up in arms since last weekend after a Daily Mail-published story falsely suggested that the Biden administration could be imposing limits on American meat consumption (the equivalent of one burger per month, to be exact) to help reach its targeted 50% reduction in US-generated emissions each month, according to Vox. The furore points to the immense challenge facing Biden’s plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the near future.

We love a good steak, but … While restrictions on personal meat intake are not spelled out in the Biden administration’s climate plan, shifts in the ways in which meat produced and consumed will be necessary to help avoid a climate catastrophe. But the attacks mounted over the mere suspicion of a possible burger ban suggests that meat consumption, which is a multi-bn USD industry and a deeply revered component of US cultural identity, foreshadows an ugly and politicized battle ahead.

China’s population could be declining for the first time since the Great Leap Forward famine in the late 1950s, Chinese census officials tell the Financial Times. The country’s total population is expected to clock in at less than 1.4 bn, suggesting that officials had overestimated the number of citizens in the past few years. The fall in population comes despite China relaxing strict family policies in 2015 after birth-rates began to fall. The census, which has yet to be officially released, will have a major impact on the economy, affecting everything from consumption to healthcare while also affecting the country’s budget for the coming years.

Self-driving cars could hit UK roads later this year after the government became the first to announce that it will regulate the use of cars with automated lane-keeping system (Alks) technology at a maximum speed of 37mph on motorways. Insurers and motoring organisations are hesitant to embrace the technology, saying much more needs to be done to ensure safety, writes The Guardian. The push back also included a warning that Alks shouldn’t be defined as “self-driving” as control of the car will be handed back to the driver when required, such as when a traffic jam clears and traffic speeds up.

Apple is cutting production of AirPods by 25-30% as the company continues to lose market share of true wireless headphones to competition, sources familiar with the matter told Nikkei Asia. Last year, Apple dominated the market with a 31% share, but despite its leading position, sales fell short of expectations.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

As news lovers, we were excited to know this movie was on Netflix: A US Civil War veteran moves from town to town as a non-fiction storyteller, sharing the news of presidents and queens, feuds and catastrophes, and gripping adventures from all over the globe in the film News of the World. Played by Tom Hanks, the storyteller encounters a young girl on his travels that was taken in by the Kiowa nomadic warriors after being orphaned in a scene of war. He vows to take her back to her biological aunt and uncle and together they embark on a journey full of human and natural obstacles. As the pair trek across the Texas plains, Hank’s character is forced to reckon with his past and his future.

⚽ PSG is playing against Man City tonight in the Champions League at 9pm. Over in La Liga, it’s Athletic Club vs Valladolid at 7pm.

There are a few matches you don’t want to miss in Serie A this weekend: Crotone is playing against Inter Milan on Saturday at 6pm, while a few hours later at 8:45, Milan will go up against Benevento.

Gameweek 34 in the Premier League will kick off on Friday with a match between Southampton and Leicester City at 9pm. Saturday has four matches on the itinerary: Crystal Palace versus Man City at 1:30pm, Brighton versus Leeds at 4pm, Chelsea versus Fulham at 6:30pm, and Everton against Aston Villa at 9pm.

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The draw for the FIFA Arab Cup Qatar 2021 took place last night. Egypt has been placed in Group D alongside Algeria and either Lebanon or Djibouti and Libya or Sudan based on the April edition of the FIFA World Ranking that should be released soon. The champion and runner-up of each group will qualify for the quarter-finals. Egypt won the Arab Cup title once in 1992, while Algeria took home the trophy twice during the cup’s history. The tournament will take place later this year and FIFA will use the event to test operations and facilities exactly a year before Qatar hosts the World Cup in 2022.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

Artist Huda Lotfi is giving an exhibition walkthrough today at Gypsum Gallery at 8pm, explaining her newest exhibition Our Black Thread which features minimalist compositions embroidered and sewn by hand.

On the agenda for Galleria 40’s Ramadan nights today is am Om Kolthoum tribute singer and a performance by Ali El Helbawy.

It’s Cat Stevens tribute night at The Room Art Space in Garden City tomorrow, with Egyptian singer kArkAdAn performing some of the greatest hits.

Catch the play ‘About Lovers’ at Amir Taz Palace in Old Cairo starting Sunday. Based on the book Tawko Elhamama by Ibn Hazm and mixed in with a selection of Umm Kalthoum songs, the play will be performed at 9pm every night until Saturday, 8 May.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

A true ghost story to keep you up during the long weekend: The Haunting of Alma Fielding follows a young housewife in 1930s London who just can’t seem to catch a break. The list of peculiar events that seem to plague her goes on and on: china flies off the shelves, stolen jewellery appears on her fingers, white mice crawl out of her handbag, and beetles appear in her gloves. Enter Nandor Fodor, a Jewish-Hungarian refugee and ghost hunter, who reads about the case and decides to help Fielding out. The deeper they go into the reasons behind the hauntings, the more they uncover about Fielding’s past and the hauntings, all unraveling with the looming world war in the background. The Guardian gives the book a thumbs up.

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???? TOMORROW’S WEATHER- A heat wave is creeping in. Tomorrow’s weather will see daytime highs of 37°C before the mercury straddles the 40s for the next week ahead, our favorite weather app tells us.

Misr Capital and Elevate Private Equity have launched a USD 380 mn healthcare investment platform that’s being billed as the biggest specialist fund of its kind in Egypt and Africa, Misr Capital, Banque Misr’s investment arm said in a press release (pdf). The fund will be named Nile Misr Healthcare.

They’re looking at a USD 150 mn first close, which they expect to wrap up in the first quarter of 2022 after an initial investment from Banque Misr and contribution from Elevate, according to the release. The fund is looking for possible portfolio companies in Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and Cote d’Ivoire in verticals spanning hospitals, pharma manufacturing, medical education and healthtech.

Look for a first transaction soon: “The platform is expected to enter its first sale and purchase agreement (SPA) within weeks upon the completion of all necessary approvals.”

Who’s Elevate? The fund has a successful private equity track record that includes its “strategic management” of fast-growing diagnostics outfit Nile Scan & Labs Co, which has delivered a four-year revenue CAGR of 38%. Elevate CEO Dr. Tarek Moharram, who is also a partner and managing director at Nile Labs, will be CEO of Nile Misr Healthcare, which he says will “actively pursue M&A transactions in the highly-fragmented healthcare spaces across our targeted jurisdictions.”

The investment drivers are clear: Egypt’s growing middle class, the growth of private health ins. and the state’s new universal healthcare program are compelling, says Misr Capital CEO Khalil El Bawab, while rapid economic growth and about 1 bn residents means the rest of the continent is particularly interesting.

Misr Capital is the latest in the field to play up the ESG credentials of its investments, with Banque Misr Vice Chairman (and Misr Capital chairman) Akef El Maghraby saying, “responsible investments come at the top of Misr Capital’s priorities.”

Advisors: Ernst & Young Egypt acted as financial and tax advisor and Alliance Law Firm and Al Kamel Law Firm as legal advisors to Misr Capital. Leverage and Dr. Khaled Moussa acted as financial advisor and legal counsel, respectively, to Elevate Private Equity.

OTHER INVESTMENT NEWS

Apache’s JVs with the government, Khalda Petroleum and Qaroun Petroleum, plans to spend USD 1.1 bn on exploration as well as development of properties at their Western Desert oil and gas concessions next fiscal year, according to an Oil Ministry statement. Khalda and Qaroun are both JVs between the US oil and gas giant the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).

Naguib Sawiris’ OIH to sell stake in Pakistan-based submarine cables business: Orascom Investment Holding’s board of directors has preliminarily approved selling the company’s entire stake in internet service provider Transworld Associates (TWA), the company said in a regulatory filing (pdf). OIH owns a 51% stake in TWA, which is an internet service provider in Pakistan; it also owns a 1.3k km submarine cable system connecting the UAE, Oman, and Pakistan. TWA began operations in 2006 as a JV between OIH, British Virgin Islands-based Orastar Limited, and Omani businessman Omar Abdul Mone’m Yousuf Al Zawawi.

Separately, OIH’s board accepted the resignation of Naguib Sawiris as chairman. Sawiris will remain OIH’s chief executive and managing director, while former Telecom Egypt Chairman Akil Bashir will serve as a non-executive chairman. The resignation comes after OIH earlier this year spun off its non-bank financial services holdings into a separate company in a horizontal demerger. Shortly after, Sawiris also stepped down as board member of Beltone Financial, which was given a new parent following the split and underwent a temporary board reshuffle.

IPR Wastani seeks arbitration for cancelled sale of Dana Gas’ Egypt assets: IPR Wastani Petroleum is filing for arbitration after the UAE’s Dana Gas called off the sale of its oil and gas assets in Egypt to the Texas-based IPR Energy Group member, Dana Gas said in a statement cited by Reuters. The request for arbitration disputes Dana Gas’ right to scrap a sale and purchase agreement both sides reached last year, but Dana Gas is claiming it was in a legal position to cancel the sale. The company terminated the agreement last week, saying it failed to agree on certain conditions with IPR Wastani. The sale would have seen Dana Gas sell most of its Egypt-based onshore assets in a USD 236 mn transaction.

Palm Hills Developments has approved a EGP 800 mn securitized bond issuance backed by its receivables, the company said in a regulatory filing (pdf) today. Sarwa Capital has been appointed to manage the issuance. The company was said earlier this year to be looking at an issuance after successfully closing in late 2020 a triple-tranche EGP 1.25 bn issuance — its largest to date.

It’s a busy market: Palm Hills becomes the latest to announce a securitization transaction since Raya subsidiary Aman announced plans to take EGP 600 mn in securitized bonds to market in 2Q2021. EFG Hermes Corp-Solutions is also looking to ramp up its securitization portfolio in 2021, after its total portfolio grew 55% last year, CEO Talal Elayat told us. Meanwhile, Edge Holding is eyeing the securitization of a EGP 1 bn receivables portfolio next year.

The EGX30 fell 1.1% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 795 mn (37.8% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 3.4% YTD.

In the green: Cleopatra Hospital (+1.6%), Fawry (+0.8%) and Orascom Development (+0.3%).

In the red: ElSewedy Electric (-3.1%), MM Group (-2.7%) and Oriental Weavers (-2.6%).

The aftermath of the pandemic could divide your workforce post WFH: Everyone has experienced the pandemic differently and this divergence in experiences could possibly lead to “organizational resentment” and the development of an “us vs them” mentality in offices going forward, Pilita Clark writes for The Financial Times. People who have lost a loved one, gotten sick, lost a business, or otherwise felt the awful effects of the pandemic in their personal lives might feel some resentment from other employees who have not felt the pain the virus inflicted on many. Many workplaces already saw this kind of resentment emerge in past attempts to return to face-to-face work, and HR experts are braced for a repeat of frayed tempers and angry words.

The disparity in vaccine acceptance could only make things worse: Workplace vaccine discrimination is already becoming a talking point, with law firm Seyfarth Shaw writing that, “a dividing line is being created between employees who are vaccinated and those who are not.” Employers are currently contemplating whether they can return to physical work with only employees who have been vaccinated, or whether they should prioritize the return to work of vaccinated employees over their counterparts. Offices are also signaling that they could look to only allow vaccinated employees perform job duties in which they interact with the public, visit customer sites or travel. This could build more resentment as vaccination status leads to a gap in job positions.

What can you do as an employee? Empathy and flexibility will make all the difference as thousands of workers are being thrown back together for the first time in months, often without a clue of what each has been through. Asking colleagues how their experience of covid-19 has been, rather than assuming everyone’s experience conforms to your own, can go a long way to diffusing tensions.

As for firms…. Rule #1 Don’t be like Bezos: When Amazon found itself reeling to cope with spiking demand during the holiday season, it offered a USD 3k sign-on bonus for new workers, reported Bloomberg. This coincided with last year’s Thanksgiving where existing Amazon employees, who had been working through the worst of the pandemic, were given coupons for USD 15 to buy a Turkey for the holiday. Old employees began to resent the new workers and the firm that had doled them the “ultimate insult in compensation,” explained Fred Whittlesey, a compensation expert and former Amazon employee. This also came as then-Amazon head Jeff Bezos was nearing a net wealth of USD 200 bn, adding salt to the employees wounds.

The moral of the story: Firms should make sure they don’t exacerbate existing resentments by creating further disparities in job descriptions, compensation, and responsibility, while providing fair incentives for both vaccinated and unvaccinated employees alike, and explaining the rationale behind them.

The new trade war will be waged through tech: Technology is the new frontier in the race between the US and China for global influence, as the trade liberalization and global supply chains that characterized the past few decades are giving way to a new era of sanctions and restrictions fueled by mutual distrust over the other side’s (mis)use of new technologies, write Daniel Garcia-Macia and Rish Goyal in an International Monetary Fund report.

Where is this war being fought? The battle between the US and China over 5G is a prime example, with the US blocking the use of American components in Huawei products last year, then conceding that they may be used only in the company’s smartphone, not its 5G business. The US has also threatened to block social media platforms run by Chinese companies, such as TikTok and WeChat, citing national security concerns. The judicial action against the companies was ultimately halted, though the episode pointed to how far the US is willing to go in order to get a leg up on China in the tech race.

Security concerns have been allowed to trump freemarket economics: “From a classical economic perspective, this escalation makes little sense. In traditional sectors, barriers to trade generally lower economic well-being in all countries involved,” write Garcia-Macia and Goyal. In the digital era, distinctions between economic and security issues are less clear, they write, and tech is at the forefront of this spillover from one arena to another, with governments citing security concerns in order to enact economic sanctions through imposing controls on the tech sphere.

Goodbye, analog sovereignty: This tech race does not conform to traditional borders or intellectual property rights, and takes tech out of the sphere of the economy and brings it into politics. Traditional sovereignty over land, property and resources is no longer sufficient, Luciano Floridi, a professor at the Oxford Internet Institute told the Financial Times, referring instead to the concept of digital sovereignty — the control of data, software, hardware, and infrastructure — that has become of key importance to states and corporations alike. Digital sovereignty will not become so important as to replace traditional analogue sovereignty, says Floridi, but should be about “complementing it with a supranational, contemporary-digital one” which should “provide to all actors and stake-holders wider benefits of harmonisation […] and a level playing field.”

Experts are raising concerns over a “splinternet,” where the US and China exist in and preside over entirely separate digital realms. Businesses would be among the first to suffer, as a greater digital divide would create additional red tape for businesses operating in both the US and China. The decoupling of trade into separate economic spheres based on which side of the rift a nation happens to fall risks undoing decades of globalization and cooperation.

Other countries (including Egypt) are being dragged into the rift: US officials urged Egypt last year to avoid working with “malign actors” on developing its 5G network, and to work with American firms instead. The State Department Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment invited Egypt to join the “Clean Network” — a group of 40 “like-minded” countries and 60 telecoms companies “committed to securing their most sensitive information,” aka, keeping it away from China. The US has earmarked mns to take developing countries out of China’s sphere of influence, and has said it will help finance and equip 5G infrastructure for Egypt and other countries through the US’ International Development Finance Corporation.

What’s to be done? “Leading countries should be urged to set up cooperative frameworks in several areas,” write Garcia-Macia and Goyal. Securing intellectual property rights, as well as enforcing coordinated regulation and initiatives for digital taxation across borders could be done through the creation of a sort of “digital stability board” that could take the lead on regulatory policy, the authors write. “Collaboration would weaken the incentives for conflict and lead to potentially better outcomes. But it will require sustained effort and rebuilding trust.”

26-28 April (Monday-Wednesday): Non Edadiya / Thanaweya Amma students sit end-of-year exams.

28 April (Wednesday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

29 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day.

29 April (Thursday): Start of school summer holiday for students not sitting Adadiya / Thanaweya Amma exams.

1 May (Saturday): Labor Day (national holiday).

2 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter Sunday (holiday for Coptic Christians, still unclear whether it will be a banking holiday).

3 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (date of the national holiday still TBC).

13-15 May (Thursday-Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

16-19 May (Sunday-Wednesday): The Arabian Travel Market (ATM) takes place in Dubai.

25-28 May (Tuesday-Friday): The World Economic Forum annual meeting, Singapore.

1 June (Tuesday): The IMF will conduct a second review of targets set under the USD 5.2 bn standby loan approved in June 2020 (proposed date).

7-9 June (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

17 June (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

17-20 June (Thursday-Sunday) : The International Exhibition of Materials and Technologies for Finishing and Construction (Turnkey Expo), Cairo International Conference Center.

24 June (Thursday): End of the 2020-2021 academic year (public schools).

26-29 June (Saturday-Tuesday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Cairo International Convention Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

30 June- 15 July: National Book Fair.

July + August: Thanaweya Amma exams take place.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday)

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

12-15 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Sahara Expo: the 33rd International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The 54th session of the Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday) Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.