PM — The FAANG Gang is struggling

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the start of a new week. Today’s news cycle is once again dominated by the situation in Ukraine and the ripple effect on the global economy, including Egypt.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

Pricier commodities on the bac of Russia’s war hit home: Soaring global prices could cost the state up to EGP 15 bn more than it had budgeted for wheat imports in FY2021-2022,Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg Asharq (watch, runtime: 1:35). Meanwhile, Egypt is “negatively affected” by soaring oil prices in the global market, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Sky News Arabia (watch, runtime: 1:18). As a net importer of crude oil and petroleum derivatives, daily changes in oil prices “are not in Egypt’s interest,” El Molla said.

On the bright side: El Molla added that we could offset some of the impact of higher oil prices by exporting more liquefied natural gas, given elevated energy prices across the board on the back of key crude producer Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

HAPPENING NOW-

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• The biggest global commodities shock in decades is inbound: The world is facing the biggest commodities shock in decades as conflict in Ukraine cuts off a quarter of the world’s wheat supply and western nations try to isolate Russia — the world’s second-largest commodities producer — from the global economy.
• Israel has begun exporting additional natural gas to Egypt through a pipeline traversing Jordan, with NewMed Energy — formerly Delek Drilling — and Chevron expected to export 2.5-3 bn cubic meters (bcm) of gas this year.
• Travel app Elves will be getting a slew of new users as part of a new partnership with major travel operator Der Touristik Eastern Europe.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

It’s day 11 of the Russian-Ukrainian war, with a breakdown in the temporary ceasefire worsening the situation in Ukraine’s Mariupol, where an attempt to restart the evacuation failed for a second time, Reuters reports. The evacuation comes one day after a similar plan collapsed as Ukraine and Russia exchanged blame over the failure of the temporary truce. A humanitarian corridor was set to help over 200k people flee the city, whose population rests around 400k.

The evacuation failed as Russia continued to shell areas in the port city that were meant to be safe, a member of the Ukrainian National Guard said.

Ukrainian forces have also failed to observe the truce, Interfax news agency reported, citing a Donetsk separatist administration official, who said only 300 people have left Mariupol.

The humanitarian situation in Mariupol is “catastrophic,” aid group Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said, with continuous shelling leading to water, electricity, heating, internet, and phone services to be cut off. Food supplies are running low, and there is no feasible way to transport supplies into the city, MSF’s Emergency Coordinator in Ukraine Laurent Ligozat said.

Several of Ukraine’s healthcare facilities have been attacked, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Twitter, as he confirmed several attacks that killed at least six and injured 11, without further details.

Ukraine continued to show resistance overnight as a series of blasts continued overnight in Ukraine’s second-biggest city Kharkiv, Ukrainian media reported, according to Reuters, as the armed forces said they’re carrying out operations in eastern Donetsk, Chernihiv and others.

The unexpectedly strong resistance has slowed down Russia’s targeting of populated areas, British intelligence claimed in an update, in several areas in Ukraine, but “strength of Ukrainian resistance” has abated Russian advances in Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mariupol.

Ukraine’s strategic port city Odessa could be next, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier today as he warned that Russian forces were prepared to bomb the city on the southern coast, which is crucial for Ukraine’s economy. He said the US is preparing new sanctions for Russia, without providing further details.

Ukraine might be getting warplanes from Poland and other NATO countries to repel Russian attacks, with a White House spokesperson signaling that the US is negotiating with Poland and other NATO countries on the potential supplies, the Financial Times reports. The supply agreement would see Ukraine getting its hands on Russian-made warplanes from Poland, while Warsaw in return receives F-16s from the US.

Turkey wants to work for peace between Ukraine and Russia, President Tayyip Erdogan told Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call, Reuters reported. Erdogan stressed on “the importance of taking urgent steps to achieve a ceasefire, open humanitarian corridors and sign a peace agreement.”

But Putin said his offensive would not end until Ukraine stopped fighting during the phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Russian news agency Intertfax reported. Putin also held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, Reuters reported, according to Russian television.

The Ukrainian refugee spill-in is the fastest in Europe since World War II, UNHCR head Filippo Grandi said, with over 1.5 mn refugees crossing from Ukraine in neighboring countries since the start of the Russian invasion. An estimated 4 mn people may flee Ukraine over the summer, the UNHCR said in a report earlier on the crisis.

Your cards have been maxed out: Visa and Mastercard announced the suspension of all operations in Russia over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, with all transactions ceased, they said in separate press releases. Payments company PayPal is also suspending services in Russia over the invasion, a letter by CEO Dan Schulman read according to a tweet by Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

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???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will be in town this Thursday and Friday, the State Department said in a statement on Thursday. Sherman will meet with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and “other senior officials,” as well as the head of the National Council of Human Rights Moushira Khattab.

Contemporary art and culture center Darb1718 is hosting its 3031 Art Festival until next Saturday, 12 March on its premises in Fustat, Old Cairo. Unique collections of multidisciplinary art will be on display along with live music, dance, theater performances, and interactive workshops. Guest speakers Adsum Art Consultancy will be on hand to discuss investing in art. Catch a full day of activities from 1pm–9:30pm on weekends and weekdays from 4pm–1pm.

Key news triggers to keep your eye on over the next few weeks:

• Inflation: Inflation figures for February will be released on Thursday, 10 March.
• Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will hold its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 24 March.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The weather will be mostly cloudy tomorrow with a daytime high of 25°C and a nighttime low of 14°C, our favorite weather app tells us. There’s also a slight chance of rain — which might be a good thing after the dust and sand we’re seeing today.

Tech funds have taken a beating — but some bore the brunt more than others: With tech stocks falling out of favor in the past few months and the Russia-Ukraine war adding further pressure, tech-focused funds are (broadly) in the red, writes the Wall Street Journal. Out of 153 tech funds tracked by Chicago fund-research firm Morningstar, only three achieved positive returns for the period between 1 November and 28 February — the best of which saw its price rise only 2%. Meanwhile, other funds have lost nearly half of their value during the period.

Semiconductors have emerged as a safe-haven of sorts: In general, funds that have erred on the side of caution have been hit less, with those focused on semiconductors and dividends suffering fewer losses — or even remaining in the black. This comes amid “newfound skepticism of high earnings multiples and promises that earnings will arrive sometime in the future,” the WSJ writes.

Meanwhile, funds focused on crypto, tech giants, and fintech haven’t been faring well: More volatile funds — such as those focusing on crypto or FAANG stocks — have underperformed in the past period. Fintech funds have also fallen to the bottom of the food chain, despite recently being an investment darling. In order to regain footing, investors need to avoid contributing to a major selloff that would turn temporary losses into permanent losses — especially since funds and ETFs have little flexibility to shake up their holdings, Cathie Wood from Ark Investment Management told CNBC.

Rental sneakers for all: KYX World, a sneaker subscription platform, has raised USD 3 mn in its second round of seed financing, bringing the total valuation of the Los Angeles- based company to USD 16 mn, reports the Wall Street Journal. The startup’s chief executive said the funds will be used to build an app and expand operations. KYX, which has 2k active subscribers and 10 K pieces of inventory, currently offers three subscription plans for its users to rent and buy iconic shoes. The monthly platinum subscription, which will set you back USD 169, enables users to rent two pairs of sneakers per month. 37% of US consumers are now opting to buy their footwear online, according to Matt Powell, senior sports industry advisor at the NPD Group. As consumer behaviors continue to change, online sneaker forums are booming. StockX LLC, another sneaker platform that also sells streetwear and collectibles, has amassed a whopping USD 3.8 bn valuation in 2021.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

(all times CLT)

Get your batmobile ready: Robert Pattinson’s The Batman is premiering. The movie, directed and co-written by Matt Reeves, promises a disconnection from previous Bat-franchises as Pattinson takes on the role previously played by Adam West, Val Kilmer, Michael Keaton, Christian Bale, Ben Affleck, and others. It took Reeves — known for his work in Cloverfield and two of the Planet of the Apes sequels — five years to create “The Batman” to provide a distinction of the character from other previous movies. The movie sees Batman investigating corruption and organized crime in Gotham city following the killings of several senior figures by a sadistic serial killer, the Riddler, who is played by Paul Dano. The cast also includes Colin Farrell as Oswald Cobblepot/Penguin, Andy Serkis as Alfred Pennyworth and Zoë Kravitz as Selina Kyle/Catwoman. Watch the trailer here (runtime: 2:38).

⚽Premier League title holders Manchester City are up for a difficult game as they host rival Manchester United in the Manchester derby at 6:30pm today. The league title holder is currently trying to widen the gap with Liverpool to six points again after the Reds’ narrow victory against West Ham yesterday. Despite their rivalry, the Reds are hoping Manchester United stops the Citizens at any cost. Arsenal vs Watford begins a few minutes after we hit “send” on this issue, with a 4pm kick-off time.

In La Liga, Barcelona plays against Elche at 5:15pm, while rival Atletico Madrid clashes with Real Betis at 10pm. Celta Vigo plays against Mallorca at 7:30pm.

Shifting to the Serie A, Napoli goes head to head with AC Milan at 9:45pm today, as both teams eye victory in the showdown which would see either closing a one point gap with leading Inter Milan.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

An oldie but always a goodie: El Lido’s char-grilled burgers are the pinnacle of “less is more.” The burger joint — which now has locations in Zamalek, the Shooting Club in Dokki, Walk of Cairo, and Palm Hills — offers up a juicy burger in a sesame bun drizzled with their special tahini sauce. Sure, the menu has been expanded since El Lido first opened up shop and now includes other burger varieties, shawarma, hot dogs, and fried chicken, but the original (which Gezira Club members will be especially fond of) will always be king.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

(all times CLT)

Voice Band is performing at El Sakia Culturewheel at 6:30pm today. The concert will include 15 musicians and singers, led by maestro Islam Gad.

Pianist and composer Omar Khairat has concerts tomorrow and Tuesday at the Cairo Opera House at 8pm.

Tickets are now on sale for W Ba’adein, a play written and produced by Mary Aravanis. The play, which is about loss and love, opens at Rawabet Art Space on Thursday, 10 March at 8pm and runs until Sunday, 13 March.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Charting the introduction of BTC competitor Ethereum: The Infinite Machine by financial journalist Camila Russo tells the story of the world’s number two cryptocurrency, which is now seen as the foundation of the internet of tomorrow. The book “details the wild and often hapless adventures of a team of hippy-anarchists, reluctantly led by an ambivalent visionary, and lays out how this new foundation for the internet will spur both transformation and fraud” as the network continues to grow.

EARNINGS WATCH-

Beltone Financial’s net losses widened to EGP 169.76 mn in 2021, from EGP 132.4 mn the previous year, according to the firm’s financial statement (pdf). Revenues rose 27.1% y-o-y in 2021, recording EGP 351.7 mn.

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MARKET ROUNDUP-

The EGX30 fell 1.9% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 763 mn (19.7% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 7.2% YTD.

In the green: Ezz Steel (+4.8%), Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+1.7%) and Mopco (+1.2%).

In the red: Rameda (-4.4%), Telecom Egypt (-4.0%) and Ibnsina Pharma (-3.9%).

EMs are still struggling to address the economic repercussions of the pandemic (to say nothing of the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine)? With the pandemic in its third year, the post-covid recovery has been the primary focus for the global economy, but developing countries and emerging markets are facing several hurdles to get there. The full effects of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine have yet to be accurately measured, but it’s safe to say they will only serve to worsen the economic landscape for households, businesses, and banks in emerging markets, which are already facing record inflation figures and aggressive monetary tightening. These conditions are creating “growing risks” for EMs, which now need “to focus on creating healthier financial sectors, according to the World Bank’s Finance for an Equitable Recovery report (pdf).

First thing’s first: What do the risks look like? For one, global inflation is soaring, with price increases in the OECD’s 38 members rising to a 25-year high of 6.6% in December, according to data released by the OECD. While global food prices rose closer to record highs in February as supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, poor weather and labor shortages push the world closer to a food crisis.

Egypt hasn’t been immune: Knock-on effects from the global economy have pushed annual urban inflation in Egypt to its highest in almost 2.5 years in January, hitting 7.3% on the back of rising food prices and an unfavorable base effect. Inflationary pressures have impacted business confidence in demand, with February’s Purchasing Managers’ Index indicating that confidence levels are at an all-time low due to the current economic conditions.

And global inflation now looks set to climb even higher, as the conflict in Ukraine has led to one of its biggest commodities shocks in decades. Russia and Ukraine account for a bulk of the world’s commodities production, with Russia alone acting as the world’s second-biggest commodities producer and sanctions against Moscow impacting the prices of Brent crude, natural gas, metals, and coal. Ukraine and Russia are also two key sources of wheat — both of whom Egypt heavily relies on for its wheat imports — together accounting for around a quarter of global wheat supply.

With inflation on the up and up, global central banks are pivoting to monetary tightening cycles to get price rises under control. The emerging consensus is that we’re facing sooner-than-expected interest rate hikes from global central banks, which is pushing up yields on government bonds, triggering a sell-off around the world. The US Federal Reserve will likely make nine consecutive quarter-point rate hikes starting March in a bid to curb soaring inflation, JPMorgan predicts.

That’s not very good news for EM debt: The anticipated interest rate increases in developed countries is expected to put emerging-market debt at risk of outflows as it becomes less attractive to foreign investors, and raise borrowing costs for governments that have accumulated debts denominated in USD. A tighter US policy could leave EMs vulnerable to a drop in foreign inflows as risk-averse managers seek safer returns in the US.

Rising interest rates = more vulnerable businesses: A period of low interest rates prior to the pandemic “saw a significant buildup of financial risks in the corporate sectors,” as businesses took on more debt, which they were already struggling to repay before the pandemic set in. To make matters worse, much of this debt was USD-denominated, which was initially an attractive option due to low interest rates, the World Bank notes. Now, however, firms holding significant amounts of FX-denominated debt are finding their liabilities “more difficult to service,” the report says.

On the upside, this hasn't translated into a jump in non performing loans (NPLs) as of the end of 2021, but the World Bank suggests this won’t necessarily be the case in the long-term. The report explains that, as governments start to withdraw their pandemic support policies — including freezes on credit reporting, which means “banks are largely unable to distinguish illiquid from insolvent borrowers” — we should expect an increase in NPLs across countries and individual sectors.

Sovereign debt has also soared, with emerging economies now facing a massive debt pile as a result of their economic stimulus programs. Consequently, countries have either been unable to introduce policies comprehensive enough to prevent a “surge in insolvencies, loan defaults, and spillovers from households and firms to the financial sector,” or have been forced to borrow more to finance the support programs. Increasing domestic debt usually ushers in higher inflation rates, exacerbating the cycle.

Households are also bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s financial repercussions: During the first year of the pandemic, more than 50% of the world’s households were financially unprepared to sustain basic necessities for more than three months in the event of losing their source of income. Low-income households are also largely unable to get their hands on loans to plug their financing gaps, as banks look to mitigate their own lending risks. And as credit tightens, the most vulnerable borrowers — low-income households — are usually the first to be cut off from credit. Household struggling with pandemic-related unsustainable debts will result in decreased consumption, job creation, and productive investment.

So, what’s the antidote? The report lays out a number of policy reforms to help countries mitigate the risk of an onslaught of insolvent households and businesses, which include strengthening formal insolvency mechanisms, providing alternative dispute resolution systems and promoting debt forgiveness and discharge of natural person debtors.