Foreign investors’ love story with short-term Egyptian debt continues in May + current account deficit widens in 3Q2020-2021

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to our final issue of the week as we all prepare for a three-day weekend and the unofficial start of Sahel season.

Egypt is closed tomorrow through Saturday. Thursday, 1 July, is a national holiday in observance of the 30 June Revolution. Banks and the Egyptian Exchange will return to business as usual on Sunday, 4 July.

** EnterprisePM is off this afternoon and we won’t be publishing our AM or PM editions tomorrow in observance of the holiday. We’ll be back in your inboxes at our usual time on Sunday morning.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

Egypt received the third and final tranche of its USD 5.2 bn standby loan from the IMF a couple of days after the Fund’s executive board greenlit its disbursal last week, CBE Deputy Governor Ramy Aboul Naga said during a webinar, according to Masrawy. The disbursal of the USD 1.6 bn tranche completes the 12-month program, which was signed off on last June to support our public finances and economy through the pandemic.

The nation’s first-ever corporate green bond issuance looks like it’s going be given the all-clear from regulators today. The identity of the seller is yet to be officially unveiled, but the only firm we know that has plans to issue the climate-linked securities is CIB, which has been planning a sale since last year.

The Cairo International Book Fair opens its doors at the Egypt International Exhibition Center today. The two-week event will run through to 15 July.

It seems that Tigray rebels aren’t ready to put down their weapons: Tigray rebels have denounced the Ethiopian government’s unilateral ceasefire declaration as a “sick joke” and have vowed to push government troops out of the region, a spokesperson told the Associated Press yesterday. Tigrayan forces are consolidating their hold on the regional capital after this week booting out the interim administration installed by Abiy Ahmed’s government earlier this year, and are now pledging to push Eritrean soldiers out of Ethiopia and chase government soldiers to Addis Ababa “if that’s what it takes.”

*** CATCH UP QUICK with the top stories from yesterday’s edition of EnterprisePM:

• State IPOs to start in September: Two or three state companies will make their EGX debuts before the year is out, with the state privatization program going live as early as September.
• EBRD is optimistic about Egypt’s economic growth: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) sees economic growth in Egypt slowing to 2.5% this fiscal year, before rising to 4.5% in FY2021-2022.
• Onsi Sawiris, passed away at the age of 91.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The British Egyptian Business Association (BEBA) is organizing a virtual education week from 5-6 July with three seminars planned. The first, taking place at 10am on 5 July, will discuss skills-based learning while the future of investment in education will be the topic on the table at 12:30pm the same day. On 6 July, a talk on the digitalization of education in Egypt will be held at 12pm.

The Clean Energy Business Council (CEBC) MENA is holding a webinar titled Energy Efficiency in the MENA region: Status and Outlook on 6 July at 3:30pm.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, urban development and social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: Which of Egypt’s energy sub-sectors offer investors the highest returns, and which carry the greatest risks? In this first part of a two-part series, we examine what a new report from the Economic Intelligence Unit has to say about investing in Egypt’s renewables sector.

Egypt’s current account deficit more than doubled to USD 5.7 bn in 3Q2020-2021, from USD 2.8 bn in the same period last year, according to our math based on central bank figures (pdf) released last night. On a quarterly basis the deficit widened almost 20% from USD 4.8 bn in 2Q2020-2021.

Keep in mind as you read: The state’s third quarter covers the period January through March. So in 3Q2019-2020, we had just over two months of “normal” economic activity before tourism (and plenty more) fell off the cliff with the onset of the pandemic.

Trade deficit widens, despite rising exports: Egypt’s trade deficit widened by 20% in 3Q2020-2021 compared to the same period the previous year, despite non-oil exports rising 20% to USD 5.3 bn. The deficit ended the quarter at USD 11.4 bn compared to USD 9.3 bn last year.

This was driven primarily by a jump in non-oil imports: Egypt spent USD 16.9 bn on non-oil imports during the three-month period, up 23% from USD 13.7 bn last year. This resulted in the non-oil trade deficit widening by almost 25% to USD 11.6 bn.

Tourism revenues were much lower compared to 3Q2019-2020: The comparative quarter had two full months of normal activity before the government suspended international flights towards the end of March 2020. That ensured tourism revenues were higher last year, as Egypt received USD 1.3 bn in revenues in 3Q2020-2021, down more than 40% from USD 2.3 bn in the same period last year.

But there were signs of recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis: Revenues in 3Q rose 32% from the USD 987 mn that flowed into the tourism sector in 2Q.

Remittances were basically flat in 3Q: Remittances from foreign workers — another vital source of hard currency for Egypt — fell by a marginal 0.2% from USD 7.87 bn in 3Q2019-2020.

As were Suez Canal revenues, which increased marginally y-o-y to USD 1.45 bn.

Things are looking much better on the capital account side of things: Egypt received USD 1.4 bn of foreign direct investment during 3Q, up 47% from just USD 970 mn in the same period last year. Net inflows of portfolio investment rose to USD 5.8 bn during the quarter. This compares to the same period last year, which saw USD 8.2 bn of net portfolio outflows. 3Q2019-2020 coincided with the beginning of the global market crash and the emerging-market sell-off that occurred in March through May in response to the pandemic.

Foreign investors’ love story with Egyptian debt continued through May: Foreign inflows into Egyptian treasury bills continued to gain steam last month, rising to USD 22.3 bn (c. EGP 350 bn) as of the end of May from USD 20.9 bn (EGP 327 bn) in April, according to central bank figures (pdf). Investors put some USD 3.3 bn into short-term local debt between January and May on the back of a strong rebound in emerging markets.

But EGP bonds appear to have seen slight outflows: Total foreign holdings of bills and bonds have remained flat since hitting a record USD 28.5 bn in February, despite more than USD 2.1 bn entering short-term debt during the same period. At the end of May, total holdings stood between USD 28-29 bn, according to comments made by Finance Minister Mohamed Maait earlier this month.

Investment in Egyptian debt has surged in the 12 months since the covid market crashas investors returned after selling down their holdings during the emerging-market sell-off last year.

Derivatives trading is coming to Egypt before the year is out: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) is looking to launch Egypt’s first futures exchange before 2022, FRA Deputy Chairman Islam Azzam told Asharq Business. The long-awaited exchange will initially allow traders to buy and sell index futures contracts, before launching stock futures, and stock and index options at a later date, Azzam said.

No private sector involvement in the clearing company? State-owned banks and the EGX will be allowed to own stakes in the clearing company, Assam said, without mentioning whether private sector firms will be allowed to bid. Each bank will be allowed to hold a maximum 10% stake in the company.

The National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire and United Bank are all reportedly eyeing a piece of the new futures exchange. The FRA has allocated at least 75% of the exchange to financial institutions that meet solvency standards and / or with experience in futures contracts.

A new first for Egypt: The opening of the futures exchange will mark the first time ever that investors will be able to buy and sell derivatives on the EGX.

Azimut’s new Egypt-focused equity fund ​AZ-Opp has raised AUM of EGP 71 mn in its initial subscription period, with Azimut Group Managing Director Ahmed Abou El Saad telling Al Mal that more that the fund met substantial appetite from some 500 investors. Azimut aims to have EGP 250 mn in AUM for the fund, which is now trading.

This is the first of two new funds Azimut plans to launch this year: Abou El Saad said in April that the asset manager had obtained all necessary approvals for the funds. Azimut launched last year its first Egypt-focused equity fund, AZ Equity-Egypt, and a fixed income fund, AZ-Savings.

A EUR 57.7 mn development financing agreement sealed with German development bank KfW in May was approved by the cabinet during its weekly meeting yesterday. The grant will help fund six projects in energy efficiency, renewable energy, technical education and vocational training, water management, and market competition.

Also approved during the meeting:

• Cost of covid vax certificates reduced: The government has lowered the proposed fees for obtaining a covid vaccination certificate for Egyptians and foreigners. Egyptians will now pay EGP 100 and foreigners will be charged USD 10.
• State firms will electrify the monorails: The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company have been put in charge of supplying the two new monorail lines with electricity.

Al Alamia For Real Estate Investment, a unit of Hassan Allam Properties, has signed an EGP 4.16 bn financing agreement with a syndicate of local banks for the development of its Swan Lake Residences project in New Cairo, Hapi Journal reported. The Arab African International Bank (AAIB) and Banque Misr will each provide EGP 2.08 bn to the real estate developer. CEO Mohamed Allam said the development will create c. 200k direct and indirect jobs and be home to some 6.6k families.

Advisors: ALC Alieldean Weshahi & Partners acted as counsel for Hassan Allam, while Helmy, Hamza, & Partners was counsel to the lenders.

Has Egypt got backing on the UN Security Council for discussing the GERD dispute? Norway and Tunisia have discussed bringing the GERD dispute to discussion at the UN Security Council in July, the Tunisian Foreign Ministry said in a statement yesterday, without providing further details. Both countries are currently non-permanent members of the council.

Egypt and Sudan have both appealed to the Security Council to take action against Ethiopia in recent weeks as Ethiopia prepares to resume filling the dam’s reservoir. The countries were said to be preparing a draft resolution to submit to the council, and have gotten the Arab League on side, which called on the council to intervene in the dispute.

The highlight of last night’s talk shows: Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi’s extensive chat with IMF mission chief Celine Allard on the state of (and outlook for) the Egyptian economy as we finalize drawdown from our USD 5.2 bn standby loan program with the international body. The interview covered what the fund thinks Egypt is doing right and wrong, and what the Egypt-IMF relationship will look like now the 12-month program is over. You can watch the full interview here (watch, runtime: 44:01).

Authorities have managed “well” to weather the economic shock caused by covid, owing to “prudent and timely policies,” alongside fiscal and monetary support that has preserved economic stability — “a very important balance to strike,” Allard said (watch, runtime: 4:45). Egypt is on track to return to pre-covid growth levels, and despite the increased allocations for healthcare and tourism spending in the FY2021/2022 state budget, the country’s budget deficit is expected to continue narrowing, she said.

“Social protection has been very important [to Egypt]” to handle the pandemic’s economic fallout. The expansion of financial assistance for low-income groups, especially the Takaful and Karama programs which are now covering more than 3.6 mn households, has been vital to prevent the virus and the ensuing lockdown measures from inflicting lasting harm, according to Allard.

Increased spending flexibility will help speed up the country’s vaccine rollout: Having the ability to purchase more vaccines and upping the local production of jabs will only benefit the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery (watch, runtime: 3:17).

Further structural reform to boost private-sector involvement in the economy will be crucial for Egypt’s continued economic development, as would maintaining its current levels of economic support, she said.

Al Mashat talks about her new book: El Hadidi also sat down with International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat, who last night announced the launch of her new book documenting Egypt’s international cooperation and development finance experience (watch, runtime: 14:05). The book aims to serve as a manual for developing and emerging countries so that they can learn from Egypt’s reform experience, the minister said.

We discussed the new book with Al Mashat last week: Check out the interview here.

Also on the airwaves last night:

• Tourism: Tourism Minister Khaled El Enany discussed the ministry’s upcoming promotional campaign with Lamees El Hadidi. During the interview he said that as many as 1.5 mn tourists visited Egypt between March and May. (Kelma Akhira | watch, runtime: 14:09)
• New ins.: Egyptians will have to pay EGP 300 in mandatory ins. coverage when issuing or renewing their passports as of 1 July, Hesham Ramadan, assistant to the Financial Regulatory Authority’s chairman, said. (Kelma Akhira | watch, runtime: 14:58)

It’s a slow morning in the international press: Amnesty International is calling on the Egyptian government to prioritize people who are most at-risk in its vaccination campaign, while the National has a photo gallery of Menoufia grape farms that export their product to Europe.

There are no changes to admission requirements for thanaweya amma students applying to private universities in the 2021-22 academic year, according to a new decision by the Supreme Council of Private Universities. Youm7 has the full list of majors and the minimum grades. Meanwhile, non-Thanaweya Amma students — who either completed a foreign diploma or graduated from a high school in an Arabic-speaking country — can now submit applications directly to the universities to be admitted at the start of the fall semester.

Reminder: Admissions into private universities won’t be the same this time around. Here’s all you need to know about the Higher Education Ministry’s new online applications portal, which consolidates enrollment applications to all non-state universities in one place and will become mandatory for admission from the 2021-2022 academic year.

Other things we’re keeping an eye on this morning:

• The third phase of the new export support program will be launched on Sunday. Exporters will have until 29 July to submit requests for receiving their payments as a lump-sum.
• Businessman Hassan Rateb, who was arrested yesterday for allegedly funding illegal excavations of antiques, will remain in detention for four days.

Fully-vaccinated travellers are now required to present their vaccination certificates upon arrival to Egypt, provided they have electronic certificates that are verified using a QR code, the Health Ministry said in a statement yesterday. This comes a week after we reported that people who have had two doses of a vaccine no longer need to have PCR tests when entering the country, provided they received their second shot at least two weeks before the flight.

What happens to people flying from countries that aren’t using QR code-based certificates? We’re still not entirely sure whether border authorities are accepting alternate types of certificate. This was an issue brought up by Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi last night, who asked (rhetorically) whether travellers from countries such as the US would be barred from entering the country — CDC certificates do not presently include QR codes. She suggested that this could jeopardize the recovery of the tourism sector and called on the government to reconsider the rules (watch, runtime: 3:09).

Egypt’s daily covid infection rate plunged to a low we haven’t seen since November, falling to 261 yesterday from 376 the day before, according to Health Ministry figures. Egypt has now disclosed a total of 281,031 confirmed cases of covid-19. The ministry also reported 23 new deaths, bringing the country’s total death toll to 16,148.

Abu Dhabi will soon ban unvaccinated people from entering most public spaces after more than 93% of target groups in the emirate received their shots, the government said in a statement on Monday. The ban, which goes into effect on 20 August, will apply to shopping centers, restaurants, gyms, recreational facilities, schools, resorts, sports activities and all retail outlets. The only public place unvaccinated people may enter are retail locations that sell “essential goods such as supermarkets and pharmacies.” The restrictions will not apply to individuals with approved exemptions from immunization or those aged below 16.

The Moderna jab could be ready to take on the delta variant: Moderna has said that its covid-19 jab produces neutralizing antibodies against the highly-contagious delta variant and other emerging strains of concern, with a “modest reduction” compared to the original covid strain. While not yet peer-reviewed, the results are raising hopes that the jab will prove effective against the delta strain that is spreading across Africa, Europe and parts of Asia.

A number of countries in Asia are responding to delta with fresh lockdowns: Several cities in Australia are in lockdown, Bangladesh has introduced a curfew, Malaysia has extended its lockdown and Hong Kong has banned flights from Britain, as countries in the region try to curb delta’s spread, the New York Times reports.

The delta variant has also been detected in at least 13 of Africa’s 54 nations, and is threatening to become the worst episode of the outbreak for the continent.

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

30 June- 15 July: The Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

July + August: Thanaweya Amma exams take place.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

1 July (Thursday): Deadline for 17 EGX-listed companies to file their 1Q2021 earnings.

1-10 July (Thursday-Saturday): The government’s fuel pricing committee will meet to announce 3Q prices.

4 July (Sunday): Ismailia Economic Court to hold hearing on Ever Given compensation case.

Mid-July: Legislative session expected to end.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

21 July (Wednesday): Clean Energy Business Council’s webinar Women entrepreneurs in clean energy (3pm)

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday).

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

23 July-11 August (Friday-Wednesday): Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

2-4 August (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt is hosting the Africa Food Manufacturing exhibition at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

3-5 September (Friday-Sunday): The World Karate Federation will hold the third competition of the 2021 Karate 1-Premier League in Cairo.

12-15 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Sahara Expo: the 33rd International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East.

15 September (Wednesday): The CFO Leadership & Strategy Summit is taking place in Egypt.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September: Closing of 2021’s first oil and gas tender in the Gulf of Suez, Western Desert, and the Mediterranean.

1 October (Friday): Businesses importing goods at seaports will need to file shipping documents and cargo data digitally to the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

24-28 October (Sunday-Thursday) Cairo Water Week, Cairo, Egypt.

27-28 October (Wednesday-Thursday) Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski, Cairo, Egypt.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 October – 4 November (Saturday-Thursday): The first edition of Race The Legends, Egypt.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

November: Egypt will host another round of talks to reach a potential Egyptian-Eurasian trade agreement, which can significantly contribute to increasing the volume of Egyptian exports to the Russia-led bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo.

12-14 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Food Africa Cairo trade exhibition, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

14-16 February 2022 (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

1H2022: The World Economic Forum annual meeting, location TBD.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.