Good morning, wonderful people, and a very happy last day of January to you all — 8.3% of 2023 is now in our rearview mirror. Diplomacy and signs of life in the Madbouly government’s privatization program dominate the news agenda this morning.

TODAY’S WEATHER- Remember that 10-day-long cold front we spoke of yesterday? Add rain on the North Coast. Wind and light to medium rainfall is expected in several parts of the country today (though not in Cairo), according to a forecast from the Egyptian Meteorological Authority. Rain will be heaviest in coastal areas including Alexandria.

It’s shaping up to be a busy news day:

HAPPENING TODAY-

FM Shoukry is in Moscow: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry traveled to Moscow last night for meetings with officials including his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, according to a statement (pdf) by our Foreign Ministry. The two ministers will hold a press conference following their meeting. “The visit will allow the Egyptian and Russian sides to consult and exchange views on several regional and international issues….including the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its various ramifications,” FM Spokesperson Ahmed Abu Zeid said.

We keep a wide social circle: Shoukry’s visit comes hot on the heels of his meeting yesterday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Cairo. We have all the details on Blinken’s visit to Egypt in our Diplomacy section, below.

SAY BYE-BYE to high-interest CDs at NBE, Banque Misr, and Banque du Caire: Banque du Caire said it will join its state-owned peers National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr in suspending its one-year, 25% certificates of deposit by the end of the working day today, local media reports. The high-interest CDs were introduced earlier this month to combat inflation and dollarization ahead of the recent devaluation of the EGP. Private lenders CIB and QNB Alahli are yet to announce when they will follow suit, though we expect all the high-yield CDs to be pulled off the market in tandem.

AND- CI Capital’s annual MENA Investor Conference continues today: The three-day event runs through to Wednesday, 1 February. The gathering opened yesterday with an appearance by Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, who gave a run-down of the government’s growth forecasts and fiscal targets, its efforts to address the economic crisis, and its strategy to boost private-sector investment. A parade of senior government officials followed, including members of the cabient economic team and the heads of the EGX and FRA, among others.

How much will Subsidized Loan Program 2.0 cost the public purse? EGP 10 bn, according to Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, who spoke during a panel discussion at the conference yesterday. The program is set to offer EGP 150 bn worth of loans at a subsidized 11% interest rate to industry and agriculture players. Maait added that the government is spending EGP 6 bn a year to subsidize electricity prices for the industrial sector.

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EBRD + EU + GCF are holding a green finance event: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the EU, the Green Economic Financing Facility, and the Green Climate Fund will hold a green finance event today at the Nile Ritz Carlton Hotel.

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MARKET WATCH-

EGP WATCH- The EGP breached the 30 mark against the USD yesterday, dipping 0.4% against the greenback to 30.03 from 29.92 a day before, per the central bank exchange rate. The local currency has largely stabilized against the USD in recent days, following a sharper devaluation at the start of January that helped spur the return of foreign inflows and relieve a shortage of hard currency that had stymied imports. Trading on the interbank market continues to be active.

More predictions of an incoming rate hike: The CBE will likely raise interest rates by 150 bps when it meets this Thursday on the back of surging inflation, according to a Reuters poll. A median forecast of 13 analysts surveyed by the newswire sees the central bank hiking its deposit rate to 17.75% and its lending rate to 18.75% at the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) first meeting of the year.

Those we spoke to agree: Four of the seven analysts and economists we surveyed in our rate poll see the MPC raising rates by 100-200 bps later this week.

Fed meeting kicks off today: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to slow the pace of its interest rate hikes when it holds its two-day policy meeting today and tomorrow.

DATA POINT-

The outdoor advertising industry weathered economic turbulence last year: Total outdoor advertising rental sales rose 6.5% y-o-y to reach EGP 3.1 bn in 2022, according to outdoor ad platform Admazad’s annual market report (pdf). Some 1k companies used outdoor advertising last year, up 5.6% from 2021.

Billboard buys are a telling sign as to who’s faring well — and not so well: Fintech, snack foods, and real estate firms led the growth in ad buys, followed by fast food, e-commerce, and telecoms. Spending on ads dropped sharply in the automotive sector, as well as among charities and consumer electronics firms.

BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s no one story dominating the conversation in the international press this morning. Some are highlighting yesterday’s terror attack at a crowded mosque in Pakistan’s Peshawar, which killed at least 59 people — including 27 police officials — and wounded more than 150 others. Reuters, AP, the BBC, and the Guardian have more. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry condemned the attack in a statement yesterday.

IN THE BUSINESS PAGES- (A little) more optimism on global growth from the IMF: The IMF has upgraded its global growth forecast for 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% in its updated World Economic Outlook. The multilateral lender was quick to point out that “the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside,” noting that the expected growth is lower than the historical average of 3.8%. High interest rates, inflation, and the war in Ukraine will continue to slow economic growth this year, it said.

Driving the change to the upside: China’s recent reopening, which the IMF says “has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery,” as well as stronger-than-expected demand in advanced economies and cooler energy prices. The IMF is expecting growth to pick up to 3.1% in 2024. Bloomberg and Reuters have more.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

OPEC+ is meeting remotely and delegates are expecting the committee to keep oil output unchanged as global demand picks up. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed “cooperation within OPEC+ to provide the stability of the global oil market” over the phone yesterday, according to a Kremlin statement.

COME TO OUR NEXT ENTERPRISE FORUM-

We’re excited to unveil our next C-level event: The Enterprise FDI + Exports Forum, where we will take a deep dive into two of the most critical topics affecting our community.

Exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) have never been more important to our economy — or our businesses — than in the wake of the float of the EGP. We think we have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to build an export-led economy that makes us a magnet for FDI and all the benefits that will come with it for our nation.

Want to join the conversation? Drop us a line on events@enterprisemea.com.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s interest rate week here at home… The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to hike interest rates when it meets on Thursday as inflation continues to run high, according to our interest rate poll.

We’re still waiting to hear what’s happening with fuel prices this quarter: The government’s fuel pricing committee was due to meet earlier this month to set fuel prices for 1Q 2023. The government has increased prices at the pump by 23-28% since April 2021, and decided on a rare fuel oil price hike last July.

Expect prices to rise: The government has committed to changing local fuel prices in line with movements in the global markets under the USD 3 bn loan agreement with the IMF.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: The world suffered USD 313 bn in economic losses in 2022 due to natural disasters. We look at how to pay for the damage and build back resiliently.