THIS MORNING: Argentina win the World Cup + Gold exporters face new curbs as central bank moves on USD black market
There’s only one place to start this morning, folks: Last night’s World Cup final was one of the most entertaining we’ve ever seen. Six goals, multiple twists and reversals of fortunes, and a dramatic penalty shoot-out to decide the winner. The pre-game Messi v Mbappe build-up truly lived up to the hype, with the French star becoming only the second person in history to complete a World Cup hattrick and Messi getting two.
It’s Argentina who walked away with the trophy, winning the World Cup for the first since Maradona led the team to victory in 1986, and, poignantly, at the first tournament since his death in 2020.
Messi finally put to bed the age-old ‘Messi v Ronaldo’ debate, leading his team to victory at what will be his final World Cup and getting his hands on the only trophy to have eluded his Portuguese rival.
AND- Hats off to Qatar for staging what was a memorable tournament that was packed with drama, upsets and, of course, great goals.
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-
Gold exporters face new curbs as central bank moves on USD black market: Gold exporters will need to receive payment into a bank account within 10 days of making a sale or face being blacklisted by the banking sector under new rules (pdf) announced by the central bank yesterday designed to crack down on the parallel currency market.
The EGP/USD rate in the parallel market has weakened in recent days, following moves in the derivatives market that had the EGP falling to 30/USD in the next 12 months. The news that the IMF had approved our USD 3 bn loan program on Friday has helped to reverse some of this trend, with the rate strengthening from 36 to 32 yesterday.
Why gold exporters? Gold exporters often receive payments in USD outside the banking system, which makes it easier for them to trade hard currency on the black market, former deputy head of Blom Bank Egypt Tarek Metwally told Kelma Akhira last night (watch, runtime: 7:18). Prior to this rule gold exporters could sometimes wait up to six months before collecting payment and could rely on non-banking financial services to receive FX, he said.
Local gold prices have soared this year on the back of the falling value of the EGP. Twenty-one carat gold hit an unprecedented EGP 1.8k earlier this month but had fallen back to EGP 1.2k as of yesterday,
Tax Authority launches pilot for unified digital wage + income tax platform: The Egyptian Tax Authority has rolled out its digital wage and income tax platform for some taxpayers in a pilot phase this week, it said in a statement yesterday. The platform, which is set to launch in January, will allow companies to accurately calculate workers’ income tax and ins. payments and file their taxes via an online payroll system. The scheme joins the unified digital tax system and e-invoicing initiatives as part of government moves to digitize tax collection.
On the House agenda today: MPs will vote on amendments to the Suez Canal Authority law that would establish a EGP 10 bn investment fund and Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy will brief the House economic affairs, budget and defense committees on the ministry’s short-term plans for ensuring the availability of basic commodities and controlling food prices.
THIS WEEK-
It’s the Central Bank of Egypt’s final policy meeting of the year on Thursday, and analysts we surveyed last week expect policymakers to close out 2022 with another king-size 200-bps rate hike to support the currency and tackle rising inflation. Seven of the nine analysts and economists are forecasting the central bank to raise rates, five of which see a 200-bps hike. This would take the policy rate to 15.25%, its highest level since early 2019.
EGX-listed Pachin will brief shareholders on acquisition offers it has received in its ordinary general assembly on Tuesday, 20 December. Dubai-based National Paints Holdings has offered to purchase 100% of the company for EGP 29 per share, valuing it almost EGP 700 mn and far outbidding earlier offers from Universal Building Materials and Chemicals (Sipes) and Saybad Industrial Investment that have since been withdrawn.
THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-
Elon Musk has given Twitter users the opportunity to fire him as CEO of the company in a poll on the social media site. “Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll,” the under-fire tech bn’aire wrote in a post last night. The Tesla / SpaceX / Twitter CEO has come under non-stop criticism following his takeover of the social media site, from firing half of its staff, restoring banned accounts and most recently deactivating the accounts of critical journalists.
The live results just before dispatch this morning: With more than 8 mn votes cast, 57% of users had voted ‘yes’ with eight hours remaining.
Is SBF ready to face the music? Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is expected to agree to be extradited to the US in front of a Bahamas court today, reversing an earlier decision to contest extradition. Bankman-Fried faces multiple charges following the collapse of the crypto exchange and its associated hedge fund Alameda last month, in what prosecutors have described as one of the “biggest financial frauds in American history.” It’s likely prosecutors will argue to deny Bankman-Fried bail on his arrival in the US on grounds that he is a flight risk, given the bns of USD of lost money in the case. The story is getting coverage in Reuters, the New York Times, and Bloomberg, among other outlets.
The land-for-FX scheme looks to be gaining steam: “Many Arab and foreign investors” have submitted direct requests to the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) to buy state-owned land plots in USDs, Walid Abbas, assistant housing minister and supervisor of planning and projects at NUCA, told CNBC Arabia. NUCA is accepting foreigners’ direct USD bids for land outside of its usual lengthy auction system, Abbas said. Investors will be handed their plots within a month of paying a 5% USD deposit to NUCA, with the remainder to be paid in USD installments transferred from abroad.
BACKGROUND- The cabinet earlier this month agreed to sell land in Sadat City to an unnamed Gulf investor to set up a housing project, setting a precedent to approve similar cases where foreign investors agree to pay for land in FX. The move is part of a series of government measures designed to attract inflows amid a squeeze on hard currency in the country — including the expat car import scheme and tax breaks for industrial investors who use FX to fund their projects.
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ICYMI-
Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at the ups and downs of Egypt’s industrial sector in 2022, including a push for import substitution and localization.
*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.
In today’s issue: With rising inflation and two EGP devaluations throughout the calendar year, coupled with several sector-wide shakeups and policy shifts, the education sector’s first academic year without covid lockdowns was not exactly uneventful. We recap some of the big trends and developments in the sector this year.