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Tuesday, 26 October 2021

TONIGHT: Hala Zayed in the hospital? Big news on state priv. Program and for local M&As. 10 protestors killed, 80+ injured in Khartoum + it’s interest rate week in Egypt and Europe

Hump day is news dump day, ladies and gentlemen, as we are getting our fix of everything: from IPOs, privatization news, M&As, a great analyst profile, plus a whole lot of interesting things to do when the day is out. You don’t want to miss this.

HAPPENING NOW- But before we begin, the local press is abuzz with reports that Health Minister Hala Zayed has been rushed to the hospital after reportedly suffering from a heart attack. We’ll be closely monitoring the situation and give you an update in tomorrow’s EnterpriseAM.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY-

Privatization watch: Ghazl El Mahalla could be the next company lined up for a listing in the state privatization program with a possible debut on the bourse in the coming weeks. Shares are currently being marketed to institutional players ahead of a possible November listing, Masrawy reported this morning, citing the head of Prime Holding, which is quarterbacking the transaction.

Over on Planet M&A: Raya Holding announced (pdf) this morning that it has completed the sale of its recycling unit BariQ to Intro Group for EGP 571 mn. The sale has been a year in the making after Raya said in November that it was close to an agreement with a then-unknown buyer. The two sides put pens to paper in May in an agreement that at the time put the transaction value at EGP 490 mn.

In other M&A news: We finally have some details on that MNHD story we plugged in yesterday. Madinet Nasr Housing and Development (MNHD) will launch a takeover bid for real estate player Minka Development in a transaction the company expects to be worth EGP 200-220 mn. Baker Tilly Wahid Abdel Ghaffar is working on the fair value study, which should be finished before the end of November. Irrespective of the valuation, the acquisition appears a dead cert: MNHD on Sunday announced that the board has approved the bid, that Minka owner Abdallah Sallam will become its new CEO, and that the Sallam family will purchase a 5% stake in the company post-acquisition.

^^ We’ll have more on all of these stories in tomorrow’s EnterpriseAM.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • Egypt’s state of emergency will not be renewed for the first time since 2017 as the country has grown more secure and stable, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi announced yesterday.
  • We sat down with IMF Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour to talk about local and regional growth forecasts and the impact of rising commodity prices, inflation and vaccine supply on the region.
  • More Russian tourists are expected to flock to Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh during the first week of November, with tour operators reporting record demand for flight and hotel bookings.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly discussed the development at Egypt’s ports with a delegation from French shipping firm CMA CGM, that included its head Rodolphe Saadé, at a meeting in Paris today. The PM said that the government is looking forward to future cooperation with CMA CGM, particularly at the Ain Sokhna Port, according to a cabinet statement. Last month, Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling Company signed a two-year contract with CMA CGM, under which the company will anchor its ships on the holding company’s berths. Madbouly is in Paris this week to sign an OECD cooperation agreement and drum up French investments.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

It’s interest rate week here: The Central Bank of Egypt will meet this Thursday to discuss interest rates. All 12 analysts polled by Enterprise see the central bank leaving rates on hold for another meeting, citing the need to maintain portfolio inflows and uncertainty over inflation.

Ditto the Eurozone: The European Central Bank will almost certainly keep rates steady at its meeting on Thursday, the Financial Times is declaring. That said, attention will be fixed on what ECB President Christine Lagarde has to say about the longer-term outlook on inflation. The ECB will likely stick to its “inflation is temporary, no rate hikes needed” line, though investors are betting that the European bank is underestimating rising prices and may be forced to up rates before 2023.

And then it’s the Fed’s turn: The US Federal Reserve will meet to review interest rates on 2-3 November. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady in order to start tapering its asset purchases this month, though inflationary pressures are causing unease among some officials over the timeline, the Wall Street Journal reports. One analyst we polled suggests that investors in Egyptian debt have already priced in a Fed taper. But the longer the US can put off a rate hike, the better, as lower US interest rates relieve pressure on EM treasuries and maintain the appeal of our carry trade.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

Roads blocked + banks, shops shut down in Sudan as death toll rises to 10: Roads connecting Sudanese capital Khartoum and the country’s second-largest city, Omdurman, have been blocked off, while shops, banks, and ATM machines were all shut down in the second day of unrest after yesterday’s coup, Reuters reports. A total of 10 protestors have now been killed, according to BBC Arabic. Earlier today, military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan dissolved committees that govern trade unions. The events come following the military’s declaration of a state of emergency and dissolution of the sovereign council and government.

The US announced the suspension of a USD 700 mn emergency aid package to Sudan intended to support the country’s democratic transition in response to the violence, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling Sudanese authorities to release prisoners and reinstate internet connections, stressing that the US “rejects” dissolving the transitional government.

Where has Hamdok been? At a slumber party with Burhan, apparently: Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok is being held at Burhan’s own home and could be released either today or tomorrow, Burhan said at a presser (watch, runtime: 33:49). Hamdok was apprehended yesterday after refusing to endorse the coup. Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mariam Al Mahdi had said earlier today that Hamdok and members of his cabinet’s whereabouts were still unknown and that she has notified foreign ministers of Arab, African, and western countries.

More interventions coming? In an op-ed for Bloomberg, Bobby Ghosh called on US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to differentiate themselves from their predecessors by making it clear to the Sudanese military that violence against demonstrators would not be tolerated, stressing that time is of the essence in the days following a military takeover. Ghosh also called on Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to exert their influence to restore the country’s transitional government.

Also getting a lot of coverage internationally:

  • Facebook’s perma-PR crisis continues: The international news media are continuing to dish the dirt on the inner workings of the social media giant after receiving thousands of leaked documents known as the Facebook Papers (AP | NYT | Washington Post | FT | Bloomberg | WSJ ).
  • Biden looks to b’naires to fund USD 1.75 tn spending bill: US President Joe Biden is hoping to get Congress to sign off on a massive social services and climate spending this week — but his plan to fund it with a groundbreaking b’naire tax is already getting pushback from some very powerful (read: wealthy) individuals (AP | Reuters | NYT | Bloomberg).

FOR TOMORROW-

The two-day Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference takes place tomorrow and Thursday at the Intercontinental Cairo Citystars.

Grassroots community leaders aged 25-38 have until tomorrow to apply for the US State Department’s Community Solutions Program. Applications can be submitted here.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s almost the end of October. Here are dates for some key news triggers next month:

  • PMI: November’s purchasing managers’ indexes for Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will land on Wednesday, November 3.
  • Foreign reserves: October’s foreign reserves figures will be out sometime during the first week of November.
  • Inflation: Inflation figures for October will be released on Wednesday, 10 November.

The Middle East Angel Investment Network’s Angel’s Oasis retreat runs on Thursday and Friday in El Gouna, with separate pricing for in-person and virtual attendance.

Women entrepreneurs have until 6 November to apply to a new accelerator program launched by NGO Nahdet El Mahrousa offering up to EGP 200k in grants, mentorship, and other business support. Founders and social enterprise leaders working in ICT, creative industries, or on projects that support gender equality are eligible to apply. The program, Rabeha, was launched in partnership with UN Women Egypt, the Egyptian National Council for Women, Global Affairs Canada, and other partners. You can apply here.

We’re looking forward to reading Justo a Tiempo, a memoir penned by our friend ​​Maria Laura Sanchez Puerta (Morning Routine) about her family’s battle against cancer. Sanchez Puerta, who is the World Bank’s human development program leader in Egypt, is launching her memoir on Sunday, 7 November at Osana in Maadi. Argentinian Ambassador Eduardo Varela and Cairo University Professor Rasha Abboudy will also be speaking at the event.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The mercury has gone back up to the 30s. Expect a daytime high of 31°C tomorrow and a nighttime low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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