Expect corporate borrowing to boom this year — but bank margins to remain thin, our friends at Pharos say in their 2021 outlook for the sector. Last year’s 400 bps of interest rate cuts — starting with 300 bps in March followed by 50 bps in each of September and November — will be “meaningful” enough to make it worthwhile for companies to borrow in support of capital expenditures, but the borrowing boom will really come to a head in 2022 with the help of macro dynamics, Dalia Bonna and Bassma Bakry write for Pharos. The anticipated uptick in corporate and capex borrowing could beef up bank utilization ratios if lending growth surpasses funding growth.

You can tap or click here to read the report in full (pdf).

Banks are also likely to rein in their allocations to treasuries this year, Pharos says. The research note chalks this up in part to an expected narrowing of the state budget deficit — meaning fewer debt instrument sales. A large part of banks’ income comes from investment in government debt, and many piled into long-term bonds at the height of the pandemic in 2Q2020, according to a local press survey last month. This move helped banks stay financially sound even as they ramped up loan loss provisions on expectations of a wave of bad loans.

Net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to come under further pressure this year as the Central Bank of Egypt pushes ahead with its monetary easing cycle in 2021 and 2022, according to the research note.

Put all that together with higher taxes and new fees, and you get a slowdown in earnings growth at banks. The research note points to 2019 amendments to the Income Tax Act that effectively hiked the tax rate on interest income banks and corporations make from investments in government bonds and bills as a key source of pressure on banks’ earning growth this year, coupled with the 0.25% tithe on interest income to support the new universal healthcare system, the 0.5% of deposits taken for the new emergency bailout fund, and the 1% tithe to finance an industry development fund.

Could we see a wave of M&A this year? Consolidation is one potential result of last year’s Banking Act, which hiked minimum capital requirements for commercial banks to EGP 5 bn from EGP 500 mn, Pharos says. Last year saw a spate of acquisition talks in the sector, particularly as Gulf banks close in on several Lebanese banks leaving Egypt.

What would help the sector perform better? If the economy stages a healthy recovery, Pharos hopes this bounceback will reflect on corporate earnings and borrowing appetite, which would in turn breathe new life into banks’ non-interest income and ease the pressure on their NIMs. Pharos is also hopeful that the CBE will scale back its requirements for commercial banks’ reserve ratios — which it hiked to 14% back in 2017 — and allow banks to loan out a higher percentage of deposits they take in.

What might drag it down: On the flipside, the banking sector could struggle to recuperate and bring up its income if purchasing power has a slower-than-expected recovery, which would weigh on individual borrowing. The research note also points to the possibility of an uptick in non-performing loans in the event that the business environment experiences a “delayed recovery.” Banks’ bottom lines could also continue to come under pressure if the CBE enacts stricter regulations on the sector, or if the new tax treatments have a bigger effect than expected.