The shorts cometh soon -Farid

We spoke too soon yesterday: The news slowdown is not quite over yet, and this morning is proof that the summer lull is still very real. We know we’ll regret these words in a few weeks’ time.

Our My Morning Routine section is back this morning after a brief hiatus with Methanex Egypt’s Manal El-Jesri. The interview is in the final section of the issue.

The Central Bank of Egypt and Capmas will release monthly inflation figures for August next week. Inflation fell unexpectedly to a four-year low of 8.7% in July.

Conferences and gatherings:

• The Japan Arab Economic Forum is coming to Cairo on 9 September at the Nile Ritz Carlton.
• The Euromoney Egypt Conference gets underway on 9 September.
• The Sahara agricultural expo starts on 9 September at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.
• The E-Commerce Summit will take place at the Nile Ritz Carlton on 17 September.
• The Egyptian Private Equity Association will hold its venture capital event on 18 September.

The Suez Canal Conference for Investment could be pushed to 2020, EU Ambassador to Egypt Ivan Surkos said, according to Al Mal. The conference was originally scheduled to take place in November.

A shout-out to market sage Mohamed El Erian, who has been named senior global fellow at the Lauder Institute and part-time professor of practice at the Wharton School.

The doomsday prophecies claiming that recession is nigh in the US of A are not certain to come true and tend to ignore the bigger picture for the economy, Neil Irwin writes for the New York Times. While the US’ manufacturing sector has taken a hit from the trade war with China, they actually comprise a “relatively small share” of the country’s economy. A much bigger player, and thus a much more important factor to look at, is consumer spending, which has been propelling America’s economic growth even as businesses are not as bullish. “If business investment drops severely, it could translate into layoffs and a weaker labor market and thus weaker consumer spending. But there are recent episodes in which business investment shrank but consumer spending kept growing,” Irwin notes.

And about the Fed’s decisions: The US Federal Reserve’s shift to monetary easing in the beginning of 2018 could also still kick in over the next several months, as it usually has a delayed effect, Irwin says. It’s also important to understand that everyone keeps an eye on the Fed’s monetary policy in the immediate future, but “it’s not just actual interest rate adjustments that matter — it is how markets perceive the future direction of policy that affects how hard or easy it will be for businesses and consumers to get money.”

Hong Kong leader finally backs down on controversial extradition bill: Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has withdrawn an extradition bill that ignited months of demonstrations against her leadership, according to Reuters. Lam said she shelved the legislation to bring the city back from a “highly vulnerable and dangerous” place. The extradition bill would have enabled Hong Kong citizens to be extradited to China to face trial.

In global miscellany this morning:

• British MPs blocked Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s motion to trigger a snap election after voting through legislation that would prevent the government from leaving the European Union without an agreement on 31 October, according to the New York Times.
• Google to pay USD 170 mn for unauthorized underage data collection: Google has agreed to pay USD 170 mn to settle allegations that YouTube, its subsidiary, had collected information on children’s viewing habits without parental consent, reports Reuters.

Think twice before you pick up that vape: US health professionals are investigating an unknown respiratory disease thought to be linked to vaping, according to Vox. More than 200 vape users have so far been affected by the illness, the cause of which continues to elude doctors who have not been able to find a link between the cases.

No particular topic dominated the airwaves last night, leaving the talking heads to keep themselves busy with an assortment of issues.

New digital platform for land allocation to be launched soon: Masaa DMC’s Ramy Radwan highlighted a Cabinet statement that it will launch soon a new online portal to submit industrial land allocation requests (watch, runtime: 2:02). We have more in this morning’s Speed Round below.

Gov’t establishes legal committee to look into imposing beach tax: The government has set up a committee to study the legal implications and determine a mechanism to collect the recently imposed tax to use beach, Yahduth Fi Misr’s Sherif Amer reports (watch, runtime: 1:49). If the study determines that the state has the right to impose the fees, the committee would determine their value and the authority tasked with collecting them. This came after reports emerged earlier this week that some investors reached out against a request by the South Sinai governor of payments of EGP 150 on every sqm of beach space.

Gold still on the rise: Gold prices increased by some EGP 2 after three consecutive days of gains, Amer said (watch, runtime: 1:09). Global gold indices have been on the rise as the demand for “safe haven” assets ramps up on the back of the US-China trade war.

Ruth Michaelson’s piece for the Guardian on the Grand Egyptian Museum earned some airtime on Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 3:29). Local critics see the USD 1 bn plan as “a vanity project” carried over from the Mubarak-era, writes Michaelson. The government, however, remains optimistic that “the fanfare” will overshadow last month’s deadly car bombing in Cairo and other security concerns. We note the article in Egypt in the News, below.

Expect short selling to be activated before year end: Short selling is set to be activated before year-end, EGX Chairman Mohamed Farid told Bloomberg TV (watch; runtime 6:18) and Reuters in two separate interviews. “Before the end of the year we are going to see short selling up and running and being implemented. We are talking about a complete securities borrowing and lending mechanism associated or coupled with short selling,” Farid told Bloomberg. The Financial Regulatory Authority’s (FRA) deputy head Khaled El Nashar said in July that short selling transactions are due to hit the EGX this quarter.

Two companies are gearing up to list on the EGX: The stock exchange is working with two companies on the procedures of listing and selling shares on the EGX, Farid told Enterprise. The timing of the transactions is contingent on market conditions and how fast the companies finish preparations, he said. Farid told Bloomberg that there is appetite for companies operating in the technology, education, and healthcare sectors, and that financial companies could lead public sector IPOs. Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik told Enterprise earlier this week that the second wave of the state privatization program, which consists only of IPOs, has been postponed until after January 2020 from an original September 2019 date.

Foreign investment increases fivefold during reform period: Farid told Reuters that Egyptian securities have seen almost EGP 50 bn in net foreign inflows since the reform program began in November 2016, compared with less than EGP 10 bn in the three years before the reforms. Foreigners have also purchased EGP 31 bn of local bonds listed on the exchange, compared with EGP 1 bn before 2016. "You wouldn't find many countries that have such a complete story as Egypt in terms of the macro-economic reforms that took place. The reform story has been important for foreign investors," he said.

IPO WATCH- Telecom company Al Babtain looking to IPO in 2020: Al Babtain Power & Telecommunication Egypt (ABPTE), a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Al Babtain Power & Telecommunication Company, is in the final stages of negotiations with a number of investors to offer a “substantial” stake in an IPO on the EGX next year, sources close to the matter told Al Mal. The parent company had agreed last month to sign a contract with Premiere Holding to advise it on the stake sale. ABPTE is currently studying several acquisition offers it has received and expects to reach an agreement by the fourth quarter of FY2019-2020, the sources said.

Mercedes-Benz is branching out across Cairo: Abou Ghaly Motors, Ezz El Arab, and German Auto Service will be added to the Mercedes-Benz Egypt retail network in the Greater Cairo Area, according to a company statement (pdf) released yesterday. The three dealerships are undertaking measures to fulfill the latest Mercedes-Benz dealership requirements and standards. German Auto Service will open a new showroom in Heliopolis, Abou Ghaly Motors will soon be operating in Ismailia Desert Road and the facility will undergo major renovations, and Ezz El Arab will complete a new facility on Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road.

The authorized distributors network has risen to 11: After the latest additions, the Mercedes-Benz Egypt authorized dealers network will consist of 11 showrooms and service centers around the country.

Foreign reserves again remain essentially flat in August: Foreign reserves increased slightly to USD 44.97 bn at the end of August, compared to USD 44.91 bn in July, according to central bank data. The small increase comes despite the IMF dispatching the final USD 2 bn tranche of the USD 12 bn extended facility at the beginning of the month.

CABINET WATCH- The government will “soon” launch an electronic platform for investors to buy industrial land amid efforts to promote transparency and fair competition in the sector, the Madbouly Cabinet said in a statement following its weekly meeting yesterday. The government is also working on simplifying customs procedures to release goods at ports as part of a strategy to promote trade.

The council of ministers also approved draft legislation for a law to regulate educational missions, grants, and vacations as well as amendments to the Engineering Syndicate Act regulating its elections and general assembly, among other factors. Cabinet also signed off on the Education Ministry’s agreements with two separate entities to provide school meals during the 2019-2020 academic year.

STARTUP WATCH- Instabug now serves 25k clients: Cairo-based startup Instabug is now serving over 25k clients — including PayPal, Buzzfeed, Samsung, Lyft, Soundcloud, and OnePlus, Co-Founder and CEO Omar Gabr wrote in a blog post that was also picked up by Menabytes. The bug reporting tool has been used to report 400 mn issues through upward of 2 bn devices running the company’s software development kit (SDK). Instabug, which began as a background tool for mobile app users to send feedback or report errors by shaking their phones, is evolving into a performance tracker for mobile app teams. The platform now allows the teams to “collect real-time contextual insights through their entire mobile app lifecycle,” says Menabytes.

The company was founded in 2013 by Gabr and Cairo University colleague Moataz Soliman. It was part of one of the first cycles of Flat6Labs and has raised over USD 2 mn in disclosed funding since then.

EARNINGS WATCH- Palm Hills Development’s (PHD) net profit rose 3% to EGP 451.47 mn in 1H2019, from EGP 439.9 mn during the same period last year, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). The increase in net profit came despite revenues for the period falling 25% to EGP 2.5 bn from EGP 3.3 bn.

MOVES- Palm Hills Developments has appointed Mohamed Fahmy as chief operating officer and executive member of the board of directors, effective immediately, the company said in a statement (pdf).

Vienna held tight to its title as the world’s most liveable city for the second consecutive year, with a score of 99.1 out of 100 in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s global liveability index. The index looks at access to health care, education, infrastructure, culture, environment, political and social stability as key components of each country’s ranking. The Austrian capital once again outranked Melbourne, whose seven-year reign it ended in last year’s edition of the index. The other top eight cities — only one of which is European and none of which are African — have remained the same y-o-y, albeit with some minor shuffling of the order.

Environment and culture scores in emerging market cities, including Cairo, have deteriorated and brought down their overall ranking. “A lack of a concerted global effort to tackle climate change risks further downward revisions in these scores, threatening to offset improvements in the other categories, such as education and infrastructure, which remain on a broadly upward trend.”

At the bottom of the index, meanwhile, Damascus continues to hold the lowest ranking, followed by Lagos in Nigeria, Dhaka in Bangladesh, and Libya’s Tripoli.

How emerging economies can harness the power of big healthcare data: Emerging economies must avoid the so-called “Data Rich Information Poor” syndrome if they are to fully benefit from the ongoing data boom in the healthcare sector, Rwandan Health Minister Noella Bigirimana writes for the World Economic Forum. Data generation in developing countries is forecast to overtake mature economies next year, providing them the tools to fully capitalize on advanced wireless technologies, AI and genomics. The growth of data collection has been especially rapid in the healthcare sector, where it is thought to be increasing by 48% every year.

A tech-literate workforce: Both the private sector and governments must act decisively to produce a workforce capable of using data effectively and integrating potentially disruptive technology. Healthcare companies should quantify the impact of automation and AI on the workplace, and equip staff with the skills necessary to work alongside advanced technologies. A more fundamental realignment of the education system is necessary if emerging economies want to establish themselves as global leaders in tech innovation: this means attracting science and tech institutions to university campuses, and fostering a strong culture of tech education and research.

Integrating digital health systems: Transmitting healthcare records between different systems has presented major barriers to fully digitizing the sector. The Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard enables data collected from multiple healthcare providers to be gathered into a single database containing a patient’s medical history, eliminating the need for data silos or paper archives.

Data protection: Governments should establish data protection policies that enable the sharing of information while safeguarding the rights of the individual. It’s a tough balance to strike given that the advancement of the sector depends on the ability to share large volumes of sensitive information between many organizations. And emerging economies should also be cognizant of the sometimes conflicting ambitions of aligning data policies with international standards and addressing the privacy concerns of citizens.

There is no single story driving the conversation on Egypt in the foreign press this morning. Of the few business-related stories out there is this Xinhua piece analyzing whether the Finance Ministry’s decision to float the customs exchange rate will push up inflation.

Meanwhile, the Guardian has a twofer on the allure of Egypt’s artefacts: Ruth Michaelson goes behind the scenes at the Grand Egyptian Museum to speak to proponents and critics of the USD 1 bn project due for completion at the end of next year. In a separate piece, Paul Owen writes that the record-breaking success of King Tutankhamun’s exhibition in Paris is far from surprising since “scarabs, pharaohs and man-eating monsters have been thrilling us for centuries.”

The next AI frontier: International mediation? AI, algorithms and big data are rapidly becoming essential tools in the process of alternative dispute resolution, the Financial Times says. Much of this is down to the growing role of data analytics in predicting trial outcomes, which is widely employed in US litigation and now creating demand in other parts of the world. Technology — like cluster tool Brainspace — is particularly adept at identifying, prioritizing and grouping key documents at an early stage, allowing law firms to sift through vast amounts of data in a short period of time and draw big-picture early conclusions that will inform or direct their cases. And a landmark case in the UK in February saw a “robot mediator,” Smartsettle ONE, resolve a dispute over a GBP 2k unpaid bill, using a method likened to a blind-bid mechanism.

The robots are no substitute for human perception: Small-scale settlements are one thing, but when it comes to complicated disputes involving large sums, mediation and arbitration are still fundamentally human disciplines, say experts. “A skilled mediator can read the people in the room and can understand what they’re worried about and shape the settlement,” says Ben Carroll, a dispute resolution partner at Linklaters. So the future for AI, at least for now, may lie in its ability to process human perceptions as if they were data. A trend in the US, in which legal analytics companies use reams of data about the prior decisions of district court judges to predict their rulings, may now be extended to alternative dispute resolution. So the future could see robots processing the individual preferences or behavior of mediators, and arbitrators to anticipate how they might rule on particular cases.

Egypt exported 4.3 mn tonnes of agricultural products worth USD 2.2 bn in the 2018-2019 export season, according to recent Agriculture Export Council figures cited by the press. Fresh fruits led the pack throughout the season (which runs from September to August). Citrus fruits, grapes, pomegranates and strawberries, respectively, dominated the fresh fruits category. Fresh vegetables came in second — with potatoes, onions, tomatoes, and sweet potatoes each in turn taking over the group.

The Port Said governorate has proposed establishing a new sports stadium at a cost of EGP 2 bn, a government source told the local press. The Sports Ministry reportedly received the proposal, which involves establishing a large residential compound, the proceeds of which could finance the new stadium, via a consultancy firm. The existing Port Said stadium was deemed unfit to host any of the matches of the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations. A government-appointed committee has said it will cost EGP 400 mn to renovate it.

France’s Saint Gobain has brought online a new glass production line at its plant at the Suez Canal Economic Zone, the SCZone said in a statement. The company plans to earmark 50% of the EUR 8 mn line for exports.

Schneider Electric Egypt has invested EUR 20 mn (EGP 365 mn) in its Badr City facility to double its production and increase regional exports over the past year and a half, deputy CEO Sherif Abdel Fattah told Al Mal. Schneider Electric exports 30-40% of its production to 12 MENA countries. It uses 40-70% local components in its products, which it aims to increase in the coming year, Abdel Fattah said.

The Cotton & Textiles Holding Co is planning to rent 16 unused land plots from its portfolio to textiles and garments investors, Chairman Ahmed Mostafa told the local press. The company has received three requests, he said, without providing details.

Pyramids Developments has launched the EGP 2 bn Paris East Mall in the new administrative capital, according to Zawya. Pyramids Developments intends to open four other large commercial malls in the new capital, with a total investment of EGP 6 bn.

The Antiquities Ministry will accept bids for the tender to manage the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) until mid-September and announce the winner at the end of the year, government sources told the local press. Five consortiums made up of Egyptian, British, Italian, French, and American companies have placed bids, and a UAE-based company has applied on its own. Sources said yesterday that the ministry and the cabinet will evaluate these offers by the end of September.

Hotel occupancy rates are expected to increase during the winter season across Egypt, industry players expect. Hotels in Cairo, which have been seeing rates of between 60-70%, are expected to witness a 20% increase in rates and a “slight” increase in room prices on the back of higher operating costs, Egyptian Tourism Federation board member Aly Ghanem said. Occupancy during the summer increased by a lower-than-expected 5-10% compared to last year, Ghanem added, noting that most foreign visitors to Egypt are coming from Europe, the Far East, and North and South America.

Pakistan will buy 36 Dassault Mirage-V combat jets from Egypt as tensions with India rise over disputed territory in Kashmir, according to Sputnik News. The contract has been in the works for years, but recent events have given Pakistan an additional push to sign.

Manal El-Jesri, Public Affairs Manager for Methanex Egypt: My Morning Routine looks each week at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Manal El-Jesri, Public Affairs Manager for Methanex Egypt, an affiliate of Methanex Corporation, the world’s leader in methanol production.

My name is Manal El-Jesri, and I’m the proud mom of 22-year-old twins Aida and Salah Hamed, who have just finished their undergraduate studies in the UK.

Whenever I’m asked what I do for a living, my first impulse is to say, “I’m a writer.” Writing is, and has always been, my main craft. It is the tool that helps me connect with the world, and it has always been at the heart of what I do for a living. That has been the case as a professional writer and journalist for the first 15 years of my career and today, as the Public Affairs Manager for Methanex Egypt.

Methanex Egypt is the country’s only methanol production business and an affiliate of the Vancouver-based Methanex Corporation, the world’s leader in methanol production, storage, marketing, transportation, and distribution.

Mornings are my favorite part of the day. I usually wake up around 6am, weekends included. The first thing I do is head to the kitchen for my lemon water, a habit that I picked up over the past year. On most days, I then spend 10-20 minutes meditating. I practice Transcendental Meditation, or TM, a simple, effortless meditation technique that helps with relaxation and focus. I learned meditation four years ago and have been practicing regularly since. As a person who enjoys silence, TM provides me with immediate access to an ever-present sanctuary of stillness and silence inside my mind.

I try to keep my mornings devoid of non-urgent work, although it took me years of discipline to stop myself from reading and responding to every single email immediately. As a public affairs professional, I am always accessible to my team in case of an emergency, so if I am needed I will get a call. While technology is great, being constantly plugged in is not healthy.

For a while, I did try to keep my mornings devoid of coffee as well, but sadly (or not) I failed. The smell of good coffee in the morning is one of the joys I look forward to every day. I usually check Enterprise and the BBC News app over coffee, before heading out to the office.

I always joke about the fact that my team at Methanex is the smallest in the company. I work with two professionals — one based in Cairo and one based in Damietta — and together we ensure that the story of who we are as a business, as an employer, as a partner and as a neighbor is relayed to all of our stakeholders. We also ensure that we listen to and engage with all of our stakeholders.

Our plant, Egypt’s only methanol production facility, is based in Damietta, a coastal city with a unique character and a great community. A key element of my work is to ensure we continue to engage with our neighboring communities — and one of the main channels for this is through our social responsibility program. Earlier this year, we signed an agreement with the UN’s International Labor Organization to extend their successful Canada-funded youth employment project ‘Decent Jobs for Egypt’s Young People’ to Damietta. Last June, and in recognition of this work, Methanex received an award from the International Council for Small Business at the United Nations headquarters in New York — part of the UN’s celebrations of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) day. The two-year partnership seeks to implement the project’s successful interventions in Damietta to create 500 jobs over the lifetime of the project through promoting entrepreneurship and facilitating job matching processes.

Our social responsibility program is part of our responsible care (RC) ethic, which governs how we conduct our business as a global petrochemicals company. Safety and process safety are key elements of RC. On 9 September, together with our partner, ECHEM, we will hold Egypt’s second Process Safety Management conference. Now we’re in the process of making this happen, every day includes a lot of talking via phone or Skype, a lot of writing, a lot of meetings and a daily healthy dose of laughter, which is the privilege of working with a fantastic team of people.

One of the best things I’ve watched recently is Fleabag, which I just finished watching on Amazon Prime Video. It’s one of the best TV programs I’ve seen in years — witty, funny, sometimes sad and highly entertaining. I definitely recommend it (for anyone who is 18+).

I also recently finished reading Haruki Murakami’s Killing Commandatore, an enjoyable and unpredictable novel by one of my favorite writers. I always enjoy delving into Murakami’s unique universe of realities and alternate realities that exist in parallel.

Methanex is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and currently operates production sites in Canada, Chile, Egypt, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States. The Egyptian Methanex Methanol Company is a joint venture of Methanex and Egyptian government partners: Egyptian Petrochemical Holding Company (ECHEM), Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS), Egyptian National Gas Company (GASCO), and the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP).

While our stakeholders understand our business and product, friends and family often ask me what methanol is. Methanol is an essential ingredient used to produce hundreds of everyday industrial and consumer items. It is also a clean-burning, cost-competitive alternative fuel. In Egypt, methanol is a key ingredient for tens of Egyptian industries. In recent years, we have provided methanol to support Zohr’s development operations, making adjustments in our systems to enable the loading of small barges that could take our methanol from the loading jetty to the mega field directly.

With the growing demand for cleaner marine fuel, methanol is a promising alternative fuel for ships. It has the ability to help the shipping industry meet increasingly strict emissions regulations. Methanol significantly reduces emissions of sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter, making it a safe, cost-effective alternative marine fuel.

In my free time, I read — a lot. I also like to spend quality time with one or two close friends.

The best piece of business advice I’ve ever been given was to always be true to yourself, because good things happen when you are. I learned this from a leadership coach I worked with, Scotty Johnson.

My calendar keeps me organized, coupled with my Moleskine notebook. No fancy apps for me.