CBE leaves rates on hold. Plus: EGP strengthens, breaks EGP 17 to the greenback

Expect a slow(ish) news day today as we enter the last full work week of Ramadan, ladies and gentlemen. But what news there is? Well, it’s big:

• The tax authority looks set to settle with Global Telecom Holding, potentially removing an overhang that has sapped sentiment on the EGX;
• The central bank left interest rates on hold this at its Thursday meeting;
• The EGP is strengthened again on Thursday, closing the day at 16.9317 to the greenback.

Global markets are also taking a breather: The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are closed tomorrow for Memorial Day in the US, while the London Stock Exchange will also close its doors for the late-May bank holiday. US and UK markets reopen on Tuesday.

The trade and finance ministries will meet today with the heads of export councils to discuss ways of settling overdue export subsidies, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

The ongoing battle between the US and China over trade and tech spooked the markets again last week. The S&P was down for the third week in a row, while the Dow was down for the fifth week running, its longest losing streak since 2011. Yields on US 10-year treasuries fell to lows not seen since October 2017 as investors piled into safe-haven assets. Market expectations of a rate-cut in the US continued to rise, with federal fund futures putting the likelihood of a cut before the end of 2019 at 78.5%.

Oil also took a hit, with WTI suffering its worst week of 2019 down 6.6% and Brent falling 4.9%.

Boiled frog syndrome? Global investors are becoming quite grumpy about global risk amid Brexit and US-China rivalry, the FT warns, with one columnist drawing a parallel to the days before the Great Recession: “Market shocks often erupt after a long period of slowly heating up … The mortgage and credit excesses were simmering back in 2005, for instance, only for investors to stay focused on squeezing markets for a little extra return.”

Signs of the times: Markets show they're finally waking up to global wall of worry on Bloomberg and World faces 'clear and present danger' from trade war escalation, a Reuters piece picking up on the OECD pronouncement we noted on Thursday morning.

Emerging markets aren’t doing too great either: EM equity funds lost USD 3.8 bn during the week ending Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows amid the worst performance for developing markets since the height of last year’s EM Zombie Apocalypse, the FT writes. Money continued to flow out of BlackRock’s EM ETF — the most actively-traded EM ETF. Data also shows that investors pulled USD 1.1 bn from EM bond funds in the past week, the second consecutive week of losses.

It’s not all bad news though: EM manufacturing and services PMIs have risen above developed economies for the first time since 2013. We have more on this in this morning’s Macro Picture.

It’s election day in much of the European Union, with poll watchers waiting anxiously for voting booths to close tonight for a sense of whether the EU will face a more fragmented parliament. Both the center-right European People's Party and center-left Socialists and Democrats are losing support to harder-line competitors amid an upsurge in populism, Euronews warns. Reuters has more.

Why do we care? First, the EU is our top trade and investment partner. Add to that:

• An anticipated “green wave” could push more EU-based companies to move polluting industries our way. An exit poll in Ireland, where voters came out on Friday, underlined “concerns about climate change and the environment [that] may bolster the pro-EU Greens group and could mean tighter regulations for industry.”
• Mario Draghi’s term is nearly over: The elections will set the tone when European leaders meet to start choosing the next head of the European Central Bank, the WSJ notes.

You know you’re onto something when the opportunists plot: An “obscure Cypriot” group of investors are planning a USD 5-10 bn spending spree on Eastern Mediterranean gas, claiming to be “in talks with ‘some of the most respected global family offices, private equity firms and sovereign funds’ about raising the cash,” Bloomberg writes. The story comes off as a PR piece that stupidly argues existing industry players “have struggled to overcome longstanding political and legal hurdles and find viable export markets, leaving many investors to question whether these firms can realize the region’s full potential.”

Other headlines you should know about in the global business press this morning:

• The top business headline: Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in talks for a “wide-ranging” tie up. (WSJ | FT | Reuters)
• UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation on Friday following months of intense pressure from her party and a dismal performance in the polls leading up to last week’s EU elections, the BBC reports.
• The company that nobody trusts with their data now wants to control our digital wallets: Facebook is planning to launch a new cryptocurrency in 12 countries by early 2020, The Guardian reports.
• Amazon shareholders are okay being spooks, it seems, overwhelmingly voting to allow the company to sell its cutting-edge facial recognition tech to government agencies, CNBC reports.

What We’re Tracking Today, the Ramadan edition:

A pre-iftar reading list to kill time between your post-workout shower and the breaking of the fast:

• Public markets expose the myth of the unicorn, wherein the WSJ argues that while “some of Silicon Valley’s unicorns have achieved lofty valuations in private markets, the public market, as Lyft and Uber have discovered, is different.” Read that alongside Wall Street isn’t buying what Silicon Valley is selling, also in the journal.
• The New York Times’ summer reading and summer watching lists have something for everyone. (Stranger Things season three is high on our list, and Men’s Health has the rundown on what’s known so far.)
• It’s short and sweet, but we like Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian warns the always-on work culture is creating “broken” people in the WSJ.

RAMADAN PSA- Bank hours are at 9am-2pm for employees; doors are open from 9:30am until 1:30pm for customers. The trading day at the EGX runs 10:00am until 1:30pm.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:48pm CLT today in Cairo. You’ll have until 3:14am tomorrow morning to caffeinate / finish your sohour.

WEATHER- The mercury will steadily rise this week, going from 35°C today to 40°C on Thursday. Welcome to summer, y’all.

With one eye on inflation, the central bank leaves interest rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee left key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with analyst expectations. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main operation and discount rates at 16.25%, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The story was covered by Bloomberg and Reuters.

The move was in line with expectations: All 12 economists we polled ahead of the meeting said they expected rates to be left on hold. Respondents cited the likely impact on inflation of upcoming cuts to subsidies for fuel and electricity. They said they expect easing to resume toward the end of this year.

The CBE’s rationale: The current rates are “appropriate and consistent with achieving the inflation target rate of 9% (±3%) by 4Q2020 and the stability of prices in the medium-term,” the CBE said in the statement. “The outlook for inflation incorporates the probable procedures to fix state finances,” which includes lifting subsidies on most petroleum products and the implementation of a new pricing mechanism that will peg the domestic price of fuel to international markets.

Inflation had cooled in April: The annual headline rate of inflation fell to 13.0% in April from 14.2% in March, the lowest rate since the start of the year, according to central bank figures (pdf).

A messy backdrop including global trade wars and rising oil prices is also a concern: Global economic growth is slowing and the negative impact of trade tensions has yet to be felt in full, the CBE suggested. Oil prices have been increasing since the start of the year and are vulnerable to more volatility due to regional risks and other supply factors which are impacting the outlook for local inflation, it added.

The move means businesses will be leaving capex spending on hold for the time being. The 100 bps rate cut at the start of 2019 sent a positive message, but analysts told us rates will have to fall further before businesses start borrowing to invest. Look for appetite for working capital finance to hold up in the meantime.

But the carry trade isn’t likely to lose its appeal to global investors: “Egypt will remain attractive for investors compared to other emerging markets because its interest rate should remain relatively high, its currency position good, and the country’s risk profile is low compared to other emerging peers,” Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic analysis at EFG Hermes, told Bloomberg.

EGP hits fresh two-year high, breaking the EGP 17 / USD 1 barrier: The EGP rose to a new two-year high against the greenback on Thursday, advancing to 16.9317 from 17.0500 on Wednesday, central bank data shows. The EGP has risen 5.7% against the USD since the beginning of the year, becoming one of the world’s best-performing currencies.

The rally is being driven primarily by continued USD inflows into government debt instruments and a pickup in tourism receipts, Radwa Elswaify, head of research at Pharos, told Enterprise. Tourism revenues have grown rapidly over the past year, rising 50% to EGP 11.4 bn in 2018, while foreign holdings of government treasuries have surged since the currency float, reaching USD 14.6 bn in February, up from just USD 1.28 bn (pdf) at the start of 2017.

The EGP is bucking the trend in EM currencies: Growing fears of a prolonged US-China trade conflict have caused other emerging-market currencies to suffer an extended period of losses over the past month. The MSCI EM currency index has erased its 2019 gains and now sits at its lowest level since late-December as investors move to safe-haven assets.

EXCLUSIVE- Global Telecom could pay EGP 2 bn to end tax dispute: The Tax Authority is nearing an agreement with emerging markets telecom operator Global Telecom Holding (GTH) to end a multi-bn dispute over taxes and penalties, two government sources tell Enterprise. The agreement could see the company pay EGP 2 bn to close the case, which dates back to 2018. According to our sources, GTH reps from will meet with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait tomorrow to finalize the settlement. Reps from majority shareholder Veon Holdings, which is looking to acquire the 42.3% of GTH that it does not already own, have also been sitting in on the meetings between GTH and the government. Some market observers have claimed the ongoing dispute — which has embroiled both retail investors and a handful of “activist” institutional investors — has sapped sentiment on the EGX.

M&A WATCH- BP is close to selling its stake in Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company (GUPCO) to Dubai-based Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) subsidiary Dragon Oil for USD 600 mn, industry and banking sources said, according to Reuters. The move received initial approval from the Oil Ministry. The sources gave no further details, and spokesmen from each of the companies did not comment. BP reached an agreement last year with oil and gas major SDX Energy to buy the stake, but the Oil Ministry voiced objections to the sale. GUPCO is a JV between BP and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).

DISPUTE WATCH- FRA files lawsuit against Raya’s Medhat Khalil for not paying a fine: Regulators have filed a lawsuit against Raya Holding Chairman Medhat Khalil, alleging he has failed to pay an EGP 11 mn fine handed out after he exceeded the maximum ownership limit in Raya without making a mandatory tender offer (MTO), Al Mal reported. The case could see Khalil subject to a fine and could also mean that the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) withholds a request from Raya to issue securitization bonds, the story claims.

Background: The FRA had ordered Khalil at the end of last year to submit an MTO for Raya or sell down his stake, arguing that he and related parties controlled a combined 42% of the company — a level of control that triggers the requirement for an MTO under securities regulations. Khalil bought 26.7% (56.919 mn shares) of Raya Holding through his El Pharonia Real Estate Investment at a cost of EGP 314.76 mn in a mandatory tender offer (MTO).

UPDATE- The tender for the 6 October-new capital monorail had seen only two consortiums bidding for the project, not three as was previously reported. The two consortiums include:

• China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), bidding with the Arab Organization for Industrialization’s railways factory SEMAF, Samcrete, and Petrojet;
• Orascom Construction, bidding with Arab Contractors and Canada’s Bombardier;

Cabinet had announced last week that it has selected the winning bid, but has yet to disclose which consortium.

Emerging markets have pulled ahead of advanced economies for the first time since 2013 on the latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) for services and manufacturing, the Financial Times reports. After a bumpy year, emerging markets’ aggregate reading for the two indices comes in at 52.4 for EMs, suggesting that annual GDP growth will be in the range of 5.5% — well above the 4.4% recently forecast by the IMF. Meanwhile, developed markets’ readings fell below those of EMs on both indices. A reading above 50.0 tends to show that business activity is expanding, while a figure below this indicates contraction.

What’s behind the better-than-expected performance? Industrial production grew to 3.6% y-o-y in March from 2.1% in December, driven by steady global demand for EM products. Exports appear to be making a “pretty significant recovery,” with the export orders component of the EM manufacturing index having risen to 49.5 from 48.5 between February and April. Others have suggested that the improvement is the result of monetary easing in some EM, including Egypt, as rate hikes resulting from last year’s EM Zombie Apocalypse were reversed. Egypt’s PMI broke the all-important 50.0 mark in April, showing that non-oil business activity expanded for the first time in eight months.

The calm before the storm? The PMI data was compiled before the recent intensification of tensions between China and the US, which has sent jitters through emerging markets over the past several weeks and threatens to undo the recent rebound in EM PMIs. Renaissance Capital chief economist Charles Robertson is one of several analysts “expecting EM PMIs to take a beating in coming months due to the trade war.”

It’s another quiet morning for Egypt in the foreign press. We expect the lull will persist for the next few days thanks to holidays in the UK and across the pond, where apparently Sham El Nessim and our love for smelly fish have finally made it to New York City. The New York Times’ Style Magazine takes a look at how Egyptian chef and artist Laila Gohar brings a piece of Egypt to New York with an evening to celebrate the arrival of spring.

Other headlines worth a scan today include:

• The Egyptian authorities have released dozens of high school students who were taken into police custody after protesting against a new electronic exam system that they said jeopardized their future, the BBC reports.
• An increasing number of Egypt’s estimated 75k dwarfs are turning to football to feel more integrated into a society where they face widespread discrimination and marginalization, Xinhua reports.
• Egyptian Jews today number only six women, according to Arab News — a far cry from the days when we had the Arab world’s largest Jewish community, estimated to be between 75k and 80k in 1922.
• Urban farming startup Schaduf is helping lower-income Egyptians create rooftop gardens using hydroponics, bringing both environmental and social benefits, Deutsche Welle reports.

Egypt’s Africa Day celebrations yesterday are front and center on the front pages of Al Ahram and Al Akhbar this morning. Both state-run newspapers are running with coverage of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s speech during the celebrations, with particular focus on his comment that Africa is steadily moving forward towards sustainable development. Separately, Al Gomhuria reports that Egypt, Cyprus and Greece will convene this week to draft a roadmap and agree on the next steps of the EUR 2 bn power link between the three countries.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s commitment to supporting stability in Sudan during a meeting in Cairo yesterday with the head of Sudan’s Transitional Military Council, Abdel Fattah El Burhan, Ittihadiya said in a statement. The visit marked El Burhan’s first international trip since autocrat Omar Al Bashir was ousted in April.

The African Continental Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will come into effect (on paper) this Thursday, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement yesterday. The heavy lifting starts at a 7 July meeting of heads of state in Niamey, Niger, that will finalize work on everything from rules of origin to a digital payment and settlement platform, Ahram Online writes.

Exports from freezones plunged 52% y-o-y in 2Q2018-19 to USD 1.1 bn, compared to EGP 2.4 bn a year earlier, central bank data shows (pdf pp. 85-86 – table 27). Net trade during 2Q2018-2019 was USD 89 mn of net exports, compared to USD 947 mn last year.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi canceled his scheduled trip to Zambia over the weekend, local media reported, citing domestic reasons. El Sisi instead held a phone conversation with Zambian president Edgar Lungu to discuss regional affairs, according to an Ittihadiya statement.

The price of subsidized bread will remain unchanged despite the expected increase in costs when average electricity prices rise 15% on 1 July, a source from the Supply Ministry told Al Shorouk. The cost to produce a loaf of bread could increase to EGP 0.60-0.62 from EGP 0.55-0.58 when the new prices take effect, the source said. This will be fully absorbed by the government, keeping the price of a subsidized loaf at five piasters.

Egypt’s Pharco Pharma has signed an industrial land lease with the Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones (MODON) for an area in Madinah, Saudi Arabia, covering over 62k sqm, Asharq al-Awsat reports. The two organizations will invest SR 570 mn to build an integrated pharma complex that will house research and development centers and create around 1k jobs.

Bn’aire Naguib Sawiris’ Ora Developers launched its EGP 35 bn project ZED Park in Sheikh Zayed, the company said in a statement (pdf). The first phase of the project was sold out in a week, CEO Haitham Mohamed said. ZED incorporates 5k apartments in two interconnected towers of 20 floors each and other apartment buildings of 10 floors. Zed Park is expected to open in October.

Cairo will eliminate its slum areas by the end of 2019, Governor Khaled Abdel Aal said on Friday, according to the local press. The government has set aside EGP 10 bn to build 40k homes to achieve the goal, Abdel Aal said. The plan will also see the government providing jobs for residents of these new homes, he added.

The Sound and Light Cinema Company (SLCC) has raised the minimum value of its annual tender to develop and manage the sound and light show at the Pyramids to USD 2.5 mn, sources familiar with the matter told Al Mal. The previous contract was worth EGP 10 mn (c. USD 600k), and was held by a JV between Orascom Investment Holding (OIH) and Prism International. SLCC annulled the contract last year after Orascom breached the contract terms by failing to carry out the required work. The company has launched a separate tender to develop the area near the Sphinx, according to Youm7.

EgyptAir announced a new codeshare partnership with Ukraine International Airlines last week, which will allow customers to fly directly between Cairo and Kiev from this Thursday, Egypt Today reports. The partnership reportedly follows increased demand in both Egypt and the Ukraine for direct flights between the two countries. It marks the end of Ukraine’s 15-year halt on running scheduled flights to African destinations.

EFG Hermes has announced cash dividends of EGP 0.65 per share payable starting 12 June, the company said in a bourse filing (pdf).

Majid Al-Futtaim Group (MAF) has inaugurated a shopping mall, with a Carrefour store, in Ismailia at an investment cost of EGP 200 mn, Al Shorouk reports. The mall is the first of an agreement signed between MAF, the Investment Ministry, and the National Service Projects Organization to open 100 outlets in industrial zones across Egypt. The company is planning to have completed 60 branches by the end of the year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, along with Italy, Cyprus, Greece, and Croatia, for sending aircraft to help Israel battle wildfires that prompted the evacuation of 3.5k people in small towns on Thursday, Reuters reports.

An Egyptian court has ordered the release of Al Jazeera news producer Mahmoud Hussain, Reuters reports. Hussain has been held in pre-trial detention for over two years on charges of spreading false news, joining a banned group, and receiving foreign funds, and should be released within days.

The Illicit Gains Authority (IGA) has decided to unfreeze the assets of Mubarak-era Interior Minister Habib El Adly and Chief of Staff Zakaria Azmy, Ahram Online reports. Adly was acquitted of squandering Interior Ministry funds earlier this month.

Al Ahly football club has threatened to pull out of the Egyptian Premier League (EPL) if the Egyptian Football Association were to postpone any of its remaining matches until after the African Cup of Nations, which is slated to kick off 21 June, Ahram Online reported. The EPL said last week that Al Ahly would play Zamalek FC after the African Cup.

Cairo’s bridges through history: Rod El Farag bridge has been inaugurated and made it into the Guinness Book of World Records, but what position have Cairo’s other bridges occupied in history? Egyptian Streets takes a look at the historical and practical value of some of our city’s best-known landmarks.