PM — How supply shortages and climate change will affect food security this year.

It’s been refreshingly slow news day on the local front, ladies and gentlemen. However, we have plenty to read, bing watch, football to carry you to the weekend, so read up.

Macro Group’s shares are officially listed on the EGX today under the stock ticker MCRO.CA after receiving the green light from the bourse’s listing committee ahead of an IPO that could value the company at as much as EGP 3.5 bn. There’s still no clarity on whether it will be at the end of the month or some time in 1Q2022.

PSA- The Tax Authority is warning companies against delaying logging invoices to the Finance Ministry’s e-invoicing system in a statement (pdf) out today. The statement reminded companies that if they do not log them in immediately after they are issued, they could potentially face fines between EGP 20-100k. The statement also warned companies against using any middleware billing software and to input the invoices in the ministry’s system directly.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY-

#1- EGX-listed higher education outfit Taaleem saw a 24% y-o-y increase in its bottomline in 1Q2021-22 (which ended in 30 November 2021) on the back of higher operating revenues and a decrease in expenses, the company said in its earnings release (pdf) today. Revenues for the September-November period also rose 27% y-o-y, the company said.

#2- Egyptian infrastructure companies could be in line to receive some of the USD 1 bn in infrastructure funding courtesy of APICORP and IsDB Infra Initiative. The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) and the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) are looking to finance strategic utility projects to private sector companies in member countries of both organizations through the three year initiative. However, priority will be given to 10 Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries, including us.

^^We’ll have more on these stories and others in Sunday’s EnterpriseAM.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• SFE eyes renewable energy sub-fund: The Sovereign Fund of Egypt is working to launch a renewable energy sub-fund this year as part of its plan to support the green transition.
• Egypt plans to develop industrial mining “cities”: These cities would allow for the extracting and processing of gold in the Eastern Desert, phosphates in the Western Desert, and copper in Sinai.
• Grocery startup Tawfeer Market secures USD 500k seed funding: The Alexandria-based online grocery store said that it had received “contributions” from Alexandria Business Angels Network, without mentioning whether other investors were involved.

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HAPPENING NOW- The World Youth Forum is wrapping up: COP27 and the participation of youth in it was given the spotlight today, as Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad said that the recommendations concerning climate change discussed within the forum will be built on in the upcoming climate conference, according to a cabinet statement. Meanwhile, the Planning Ministry, PepsiCo Egypt, and RiseUp signed a cooperation agreement to jointly organize the Egypt Hackathon 2030 for the next three years to encourage young people to find innovative solutions to develop the healthcare sector in Egypt, according to a statement.

Highlights from the forum yesterday:

• Egypt is aiming to reduce imports and increase exports in the coming 2-3 years in a move that could save the country USD 30 bn, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said yesterday while being interviewed by the UN Resident Coordinator Elena Panova, reports Ahram Online. El Sisi called on the private-sector to produce imported products.
• Egypt is focusing on increasing exports in three sectors: technology-intensive industries, agriculture, and ICT, he added.
• Infrastructure diplomacy: El Sisi also emphasized the importance of sharing its development expertise with Africa (an important export market).

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Boris Johnson’s leadership at stake after yesterday’s apology fails to quell anger: Calls for the UK Prime Minister to resign have gotten louder, with politicians and the public alike losing respect for the leader who barred them from having moments with loved ones while he attending a party in May 2020 amidst lockdown measures. Scottish tories and a handful of his own English MPs are pressuring him to leave office before he is forced to face a leadership challenge. Reports are also being released that Johnson had attended several parties at Downing Street, ignoring his own distancing rules, with the scandal now being dubbed “partygate”. CNBC and the Financial Times have the story.

Johnson going bye bye could be good for the GBP: The prospect of a resignation from Johnson could give the GBP an additional boost, analysts forecast. “A strong and stable leadership could set the pound on a better course,” Jane Foley, a strategist at Rabobank in London, told Bloomberg. So far, the GBP has been slightly rising, further indicating that the removal of Johnson could be an upside for the currency.

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???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

SODIC shareholders will vote on the company’s new board of directors at an extraordinary general meeting on Sunday, 16 January. The formation of the new board comes after an Emirati consortium of real estate giant Aldar Properties and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ in December acquired 85.5% of SODIC in an allcash, EGP 6.1 bn transaction.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is due in town from 20-21 January on an official visit, during which he will meet President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s going to be a cold weekend: Temperatures across the country are set to dip over the weekend, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority, which forecasts the mercury to dip as low as 7°C in the capital between today and Monday. The authority is forecasting wind and a chance of light to moderate rain over the next four days.

Look for daytime highs of 15-16°C over each of the next five days, our favourite weather app tells us.

Compounds found in cannabis can be used to prevent and treat covid-19, according to a laboratory peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Nature Products. The two compounds found in hemp — called cannabigerolic acid, or CBGA, and cannabidiolic acid, or CBDA — bind to spike proteins and block the virus from attaching itself to healthy human cells. The compounds’ were also found effective in the case of alpha and beta variants. Bloomberg has the story.

Denmark wants to make flying green: Denmark has pledged to drop fossil fuels in domestic air travel by 2030 in a bid to reach its goal to reduce carbon emissions by 70% from its 1990 levels, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in her annual address, according to Bloomberg. The Nordic country is looking to introduce its first green-fuel-run flight by 2025, although the science for using clean fuel for air travel is not yet fully clear and reaching the goal will be difficult, Frederkisen said. Alternative fuels such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which are derived from algae, jatropha and waste by-products, are estimated to reduce the carbon footprint of aviation by up to 80%, according to the Air Transport Action Group. The global aviation industry produces an estimated 2% of all human-induced CO2 emissions

Kim K. gets sued over crypto promotion: Kim Kardashian, Floyd Mayweather Jr. , and Paul Pierce are among a number of celebrities are among a number of celebrities being sued over their promotion of cryptocurrency EthereumMax to investors, according to the Wall Street Journal. The celebrities encouraged their social media followers to buy the crypto and when the price was inflated, they sold their own share, effectively making huge profits — effectively a pump and dump. The market manipulation was first brought to court by a New York resident who lost out from the venture. A representative for EthereumMax responded to the allegations saying that Kardashian’s “post was simply intended to raise awareness of the project and its utility.”

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

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Stay Close is the thriller you should binge watch this weekend: Based on the novel by Harlan Coben, the show centers on Megan, a soccer mom with the perfect family, house, and hair. Or so it seems… Years after she’s established her idyllic life, her dark past comes to haunt her when she finds a card on her door addressing her by her previous name, Cassie. Enter Lorraine, an old friend from Megan's past, who tells her that the man who forced her to flee her old life is coming after her. The plot then diverges into four storylines, following Cassie, Lorraine, photographer Ray, and detective Broome — all of which are being threatened and could stand to lose everything they hold dear. The characters’ stories all entangle in Coben’s signature storytelling style and the show is riddled with numerous coincidences and twists in a murder mystery for the ages. You can check out the trailer before you commit to a few hours on the couch: (watch, runtime: 02:09).

⚽ Tune into Egypt’s next Afcon match on Saturday: The Pharaohs will play against Guinea-Bissau at 9pm. Egypt is currently at the tail end of Group D with zero points after our unfortunate meeting with Nigeria this week. Nigeria has three points while both Guinea-Bissau and Sudan have one point. Nigeria and Sudan will also play ahead of Egypt in a match at 6pm.

Other Afcon matches to follow: Cameroon is competing against Ethiopia today at 6pm while Cape Verde will play against Burkina Faso at 9pm tonight. Tomorrow has four matches in store for football fans: Senegal vs. Guinea at 3pm, Malawi vs. Zimbabwe at 6pm, Morocco vs. Comoros at 6pm, and Gabon vs. Ghana at 9pm.

The Egypt League Cup is also up and running in its first edition: Al Ahly and Gouna are currently on the field as we dispatch. Meanwhile at 5pm, Smouha will play against Ismaily and National Bank of Egypt will play against Al Mokawloon. Tomorrow will kick off with El Zamalek against Enppi at 2:30pm before Ghazl El Mahalla plays against Al Gaish and Ceramica Cleopatra plays against Pharco, both at 5pm.

The first leg of the League Cup semi final will see Liverpool and Arsenal compete today in a match at 9:45pm.

Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club will play in the Supercopa de España semi finals today at 9pm. The victor will go on to play on Sunday against Real Madrid, who defeated Barcelona 3-2 yesterday.

Coppa Italia also has two matches today: Napoli will face Fiorentina at 7pm and Milan will play Genoa at 10pm.

The English Premier League has one match for tomorrow before Super Saturday kicks in: Brighton and Crystal Palace are the sole match on Friday, playing at 10pm. Meanwhile on Saturday, Man City will go up against Chelsea at 2:30pm while at 5pm, Norwich City will play against Everton, Wolves against Southampton, Newcastle against Watford, Burnley against Leicester City. Aston Villa and Man United will end the day, hitting the field at 7:30pm.

Serie A: Three matches will take place in the Italian league on Saturday. Sampdoria will compete against Torino at 4pm, Salernitana and Lazio compete at 7pm, and Juventus will take on Udinese at 9:45pm.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Get your weekend brunch at the iconic Groppi: Located on the corner of Talaat Harb and Qasr El Nil Street in Downtown, Groppi is the epitome of history having housed patrons from British occupation army officers to Cairo’s artists and writers. The interior of the cafe is a celebration of this past, featuring an art deco design with patterned mosaic tiles. The menu is just as elegant, with finger foods such as cheese platters, mini sandwiches, gâteaux soirée, and stuffed donuts to munch on with friends. Otherwise, they offer plates for all times of the day, from their egg breakfasts to kofta and grilled chicken meals for dinner. Every once in a while they offer a variety of different jams you can take home such as their bitter orange, marrons, kumquat jams.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

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An exhibition featuring photographs of Egypt’s birds is ongoing at the Cairo Opera. The event, organized by Nature Conservation Egypt, will run until 16 January.

The Cairo Symphony Orchestra is performing at the Cairo Opera on Saturday at 8pm.

???? EARS TO THE GROUND-

As Told by Nomads explores all aspects of building effective and sustainable businesses: Hosted by digital marketing specialist Tayo Rockson, the podcast started off providing insights to entrepreneurs looking to make their mark in the business world with the help of digital marketing. Over the years, it expanded to also include interviews with changemakers who share what it takes to be inclusive and global leaders. You’ll find episodes discussing everything from digitalization, branding, competitiveness, and bias, all the way to being your best self while running a successful business. Rockson is both fun and nuanced, making his guests laugh but still ensuring the discussion is fruitful and detailed. Check out the episodes on how to build generational wealth (listen, runtime: 33:53), branding identity (listen, runtime: 39:06), and being a responsive leader (listen, runtime: 55:49). You can find the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

WHAT’S NEXT- Finish Big by Bo Burlingham looks at how to exit your business lucratively. This should be something management keeps in mind from the very start when they have time and options, whether the exit strategy is an acquisition or liquidation, argues the business journalist and Inc. magazine editor. This will lead to a more resilient business and provide clarity on how your company should grow to reach the desired end goal. Burlingham poses insights, exit plans, and cautionary tales through interviews with dozens of entrepreneurs across a range of industries who have exited their business. From these recollections, he identifies eight factors that go into a successful exit, looking at the matter from the business side as well as from an emotional perspective.

The EGX30 fell 0.4% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 807 mn (32.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 0.5% YTD.

In the green: Cleopatra Hospital (+2.8%), MM Group (+2.0%) and Egypt Kuwait Holding (+1.0%).

In the red: Madinet Nasr Housing (-4.2%), Speed Medical (-3.2%) and Egyptian Resorts Company (-2.9%).

Your breakfast got more expensive in 2021. Expect it to continue in 2022: Extreme weather, changing consumption habits and logistical issues have converged to raise food prices 28% y-o-y in FY2021 to their highest level in a decade, according to the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI). And the FAO does not expect the trend to reverse any time soon. In fact, oats and coffee futures were the fastest growing commodities in 2021, rising faster than oil and natural gas — this in spite of the two crops being grown in completely different climates. Climate experts have warned that the continuing trend could potentially lead to trade restrictions and stockpiling.

Breakfast is getting pricier. The Financial Times’ breakfast indicator, which combines futures prices of coffee, milk, sugar, wheat, oats and orange juice, rose by 63% since 2019. Wheat futures rose 20% during the first three quarters of 2021 as drought hit Russia, North America and Argentina, while oat prices doubled after a severe drought in Canada — which drives global trade — hit the crop, shrinking the country’s oat production by 44%. Droughts that began in the western US in 2020 also affected this year’s yield, leading to farmers planting and harvesting less this year, Chad Hart, economics and crop markets specialist told Quartz.

As the biggest importer of wheat, we’ve felt the crunch at home. Wheat traded at its highest level in more than a decade last year, and Egyptian tenders delivered the highest prices in at least five years. We were forced to diversify our wheat purchases in the face of steep import bills last month as the price of the grain rose. The rising price of wheat, which is the source of one-third of our calories and 45% of our protein, has the government preparing to reduce bread subsidies to soften the impact on the state budget.

And java is on the rise. In December, the price of coffee spiked 56% to a 10-year high, with forecasts that the tightness could last well into 2023 as coffee futures soared to USD 2.46 per lb. The uptick came due to turbulent weather conditions, geopolitical conflict and rising covid cases in the three major coffee producing countries, Brazil, Ethiopia and Vietnam, respectively. Droughts followed by severe, unseasonal frost in Brazil’s coffee growing regions resulted in a 40% decline in arabica harvests, while wet conditions affected yields in Colombia. In Brazil, turbulent weather damaged trees, which will likely affect next season’s harvest as well. Coffee has been hit especially hard by the shortage of container ships as well, which has driven prices up even further.

You might want to take your tea mazboot, not ziyada. Sugar prices spiked to their highest point in a decade in October due to bad weather, supply chain crunches and changing consumption habits. Sugar prices saw an almost 25% hike at home during the first week of January to hit EGP 10.50 per kilo instead of EGP 8.50 due to the rising price of raw sugar internationally, which rose 37.5% from 2020, according to the FAO Sugar Price Index.

Real meat and (unreal) meat are also being affected. The FAO Meat Price Index probably saw the smallest increase, at under 13% from 2020, with the sharpest increase in prices coming in the ovine (lamb) category — a trend that is likely to continue given the spike in oat prices, which are used primarily for animal feed. Plant-based meat saw a spike in prices as well after a heatwave in Canada more than doubled the price of yellow peas from Saskatchewan — an ingredient used by manufacturers of plant-based meat alternatives. Additionally, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 65.8% from 2020, with biofuel demand also driving an increase in the price of vegetable oils.

The rising cost of fertilizer isn’t helping. Fertilizer prices sharply increased in 3Q2021 and continued to rise to levels last seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, resulting in rising inflationary pressure. Major producers like China and Russia have suspended fertilizer exports until mid-2022 as they look to address their own food security challenges.

Poor weather will likely continue into 2022. There is no clear end in sight, as forecasters predict that 2022 will see severe storms and flash flooding as the weather phenomenon La Niña returns to the Pacific Ocean. La Niña events typically cause drought in the southern US and heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Bad harvests from last year will affect investment in this year’s harvest and likely affect inventories for more than a year to come. Senior economist at the FAO warns of a potential “contagious effect,” where the price of substitute crops rises in response to soaring prices of essential crops.

Panic buying and just in case buying are also contributing to price increases as uncertainty looms ahead. With food companies raising their prices to protect profit margins, an agricultural commodities market researcher at Rabobank told the Financial Times that high prices are likely to continue for another year at least due to heightened costs for production, processing and transport — a culmination of labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.

What does this mean for Egypt? Disruption to global flows could threaten our food security because of reliance on imports of food staples, according to a report issued by FAO last year, which found that 45.4% of Egyptians cannot afford a nutrient-adequate diet and 84.8% can’t afford a healthy one. Rising food prices spiked annual headline inflation last year to a 20-month high, with food and beverage prices rising 13.1% as the price of vegetables rose — a trend that cooled in October but is expected to rise again in response to the 50% hike in fertilizer prices.