Monday, 28 November 2022

PM — An end to global inflation in sight?

TL;DR

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Good afternoon, wonderful people. We have a brisker news day to bring you than we did yesterday — plus your usual roundup of everything you need to know to stay on top of the World Cup in Qatar.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

A peek into the CBE’s plan to shore up FX supply? The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is mulling a handful of options as part of its strategy to increase FX liquidity, after CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla met with the heads of the nation’s banks yesterday, Bloomberg Asharq reports, citing sources it says attended the meeting. The proposed options include offering service and funding incentives in exchange for tourism facilities and hotels depositing their FX in local banks, launching USD-denominated savings schemes for Egyptian expats, easing banks’ regulatory requirements for customers making USD deposits, and mulling the use of USD derivatives, Asharq reports.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

The ongoing protests in China against the country’s covid-zero policies continue to lead the conversation in the international business press this afternoon. The Financial Times and Reuters are following the play-by-play of events, while the Wall Street Journal and CNBC are focusing on the fallout in global markets.

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Some of the biggest names in Egypt’s climate industry are appearing at our inaugural Enterprise Climate X Forum, which takes place on Tuesday, 6 December at the Grand Egyptian Museum. Are you?

Hydrogen: What is it, what does a “hydrogen economy” look like and how will we know it’s becoming real? Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, CEO of industry association Hydrogen Europe, is flying in to help us unpack it.

Three industry leaders will talk about climate as the biggest (and most important) business opportunity of our generation: Mohamed Mansour is co-founder and CEO of Infinity. Amr Allam is co-CEO of Hassan Allam Holding. Jointly and separately, they’re building and operating GW worth of renewable energy projects, charging stations, desalination, wastewater, and more. They’ll be joined on stage by Sherif El Kholy, partner and head of MENA at private equity giant Actis, who has a passion for investing in green businesses — and for helping conventional businesses put ESG at the core of what they do.

How are we going to pay for it all? Todd Wilcox, CEO and deputy chairman of HSBC Egypt; Tarek El Nahas, group head of international banking at Mashreq; Khaled Hamza, director and head of Egypt at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); and Nader Abushadi, group treasurer at Dar Group, will help us get our heads around topics including green, sustainability-linked, blended, and concessional finance, as well as how much you need to know about your supply chain.

We’ll also be meeting Shift EV’s Aly El Tayeb and Algebra’s Karim Hussein, the guys who want to be Egypt’s first climate bn’aires. They’ll be talking with USAID Egypt Mission Director Leslie Reed as well as EFG Hermes Head of Strategy Simon Kitchen, who’s flying in from London to talk with us about how business leaders across frontier and emerging markets are getting their heads around climate.

** Have you confirmed your attendance? We’ll be sending you on Sunday, 4 December the QR code you’ll need to gain admission to the Grand Egyptian Museum, along with a Google Maps link and some other pointers.

Tap or click here for the full agenda.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • Why McKinsey’s Jalil Bensouda thinks we could “go bigger and faster” than even Morocco on FDI and exports: After reading our five-step recipe for turning Egypt into a global export hub and FDI magnet, participating CEOs — including McKinsey & Company Senior Partner Jalil Bensouda — agreed to answer two questions on the record.
  • Some 60% of Egyptian adults have access to the financial system: Egypt’s financial inclusion rate — the percentage of citizens above the age of 16 who hold a bank account, mobile wallet or pre-paid card — has grown 131% between 2016 and 2022 to reach some 40 mn adults.
  • Senior government officials say they’re taking seriously a slowdown of the pace at which imports are clearing ports after Central Bank Governor Hassan Abdalla and Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly discussed the issue yesterday.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

PSA- The deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Program in El Gouna has been pushed one week to next Sunday, 4 December. The two-week program, which kicks off in March 2023, offers executives from Egyptian public and private sector the skills to help them “become a better leader for your organization and support Egypt’s growth in the years ahead.” You can find more information here.

Payment and fintech conference Pafix is being held as part of Cairo ICT 2022 through Wednesday at the Egypt International Exhibition Centre in New Cairo. The conference kicked off yesterday.

The US and Russia will hold nuclear talks in Cairo this week: Washington and Moscow will discuss resuming mutual nuclear inspections during week-long talks from tomorrow until next Tuesday, 6 December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, according to CNN.

EGX-listed Pachin will brief shareholders on acquisition offers it has received in its ordinary general assembly on Tuesday, 20 December, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Dubai-based National Paints Holdings is offering to purchase 100% of Pachin for EGP 29 per share — far outbidding earlier offers from Universal Building Materials and Chemicals (Sipes) and Saybad Industrial Investment that have since been withdrawn.

Pachin’s board gave the Emirati firm the greenlight to conduct due diligence on 13 November, Al Mal reports, citing an EGX disclosure.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re in for a pleasantly sunny day in the capital city tomorrow, with a daytime high of 24°C and a nighttime low of 14°C, our favorite weather app tells us.

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FOR YOUR COMMUTE

The wave of global inflation that has battered economies over the past several months appears to have peaked and could begin to decelerate over the coming months, the Financial Times reports, citing key indicators and economists. Several indicators — including the prices at which manufacturers are selling their goods to retailers and shipping rates — have begun to cool down, indicating that “price pressures on global supply chains are easing,” the salmon-colored paper writes. “Inflation is likely at its apex,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics said. A cool off in price pressures and supply delivering restrictions “presage the coming moderation in consumer prices,” he said.

Qatari owners want to see PSG valued at EUR 4 bn ahead of stake sale: Paris Saint-Germain’s Qatari owners are in talks with potential investors — including two US funds — over the sale of a 15% stake in the football club based on a EUR 4 bn valuation, PSG President Nasser Al-Khelaifi tells the Financial Times. PSG’s prospective valuation would far outpace the EUR 2.5 bn at which Chelsea FC was purchased earlier this year.

Such a high valuation could boost price expectations among other big clubs: Liverpool FC, Manchester United, and Inter Milan are already looking at selling stakes or the entire teams, while keeping a close eye on Paris Saint-German to determine how much to ask for, the FT reports.

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ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
(all times CLT)

The Addams Family is back, starring Wednesday: With a fresh cast and plot, the comedy/horror and supernatural fiction Netflix film focuses on Wednesday, Morticia and Gomez’s daughter, who has a gloomy attitude, an odd morbid fascination, and always feels out of place. In the series, Wednesday was expelled from her school and banished to Nevermore — the outcasts school — after causing repeated episodes of violence. After initially resisting and attempting to flee from Nevermore, she begins to discover her psychic abilities, allowing her to witness disasters that satisfy her tainted soul. With that development, she grew fond of the school, its twisted people and the mishaps the city threw at her.

A tie, with a taste of defeat: Cameroon and Serbia walked away from the pitch at 2pm today with an even split of goals on day nine of the World Cup. The match was filled with excitement, starting with Cameroon’s first goal that initially gave them a head start before Serbia netted three goals, bringing the score to 3-1. Cameroon eventually managed to play catch-up and level the score to a satisfying 3-3. The two teams’ standings in their group remain unchanged in Group G, giving each of Switzerland and Brazil a chance to qualify for the last 16 in their match tonight.

Brazil and Switzerland are tied at the top of their group with three points each, meaning whoever walks away victorious from the 6pm match will move on to the next round.

Also tonight: Portugal and Uruguay go head-to-head at 9pm. Portugal is currently at the top of its group.

Currently on the pitch: South Korea and Ghana kicked off their match at 3pm.

JOIN US FOR OUR ENTERPRISE FANTASY WORLD CUP LEAGUE. Sign up with the code SZJ507VP to compete against other members of the Enterprise community. The top finisher will take home something special from us.

GROUP G-

P W D L GD T
???????? Brazil 1 1 0 0 2 3
???????? Switzerland 1 1 0 0 1 3
???????? Cameroon 2 0 1 1 -1 1
???????? Serbia 2 0 1 1 -2 1

GROUP H-

P W D L GD T
???????? Portugal 1 1 0 0 1 3
???????? South Korea 1 0 1 0 0 1
???????? Uruguay 1 0 1 0 0 1
???????? Ghana 1 0 0 1 -1 0

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
(all times CLT)

The Tap West is hosting a comedy set today at 9pm featuring a lineup of women comedians in Egypt.

Don’t miss out on Cairo Jazz Club’s closed circuit in Agouza, featuring Kix Dou and A.Salah playing exquisite b2b and hypnotic sounds tonight at 9pm.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Illuminae is dystopian not only in its plot but also in its format and layout style: Written by the brilliant Amie Kaufman, in the format of hacked files such as emails, reports, and interviews, the book, set in the year 2575, follows Ezra and Kady as their relationship falls apart just as their planet is about to do the same. As they grapple with the tumult of their breakup, their planet is targeted by two rival conglomerates vying for control of the planet, forcing Ezra and Kady to work together to escape.

GO WITH THE FLOW

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.94 bn (36% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 8.1% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+2.2%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (+1.3%) and Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+1.3%).

In the red: Talaat Moustafa Group (-3.4%), Heliopolis Housing (-2.6%) and Juhayna (-2.3%).

WELLNESS

The pandemic might be over for most of the world, but its impact on people’s mental health is still going strong: The first year of the covid-19 pandemic drove up global despair and anxiety by 25%, with one in every eight people facing some form of mental illness, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The briefing from the organization also found that women and children were the most susceptible to mental health issues caused by the pandemic and appeared to develop these issues at a faster pace than men. People with chronic illnesses, including asthma, cancer, and heart diseases also had higher incidence rates. Similarly, The OECD reported that by early 2020, mental health issues increased sharply, with a 50% increase in anxiety and depression tracked in countries like Belgium, France, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, the UK and the US than before Covid 19 hit.

Mental disorders were also on the rise in Egypt as a result of the pandemic: A study published in August 2020 found that 41% of the sample size of Egyptian adults reported a “severe” psychological impact from the pandemic, with more than a third reporting an uptick in work-related stress, more than half reporting increasing financial stress, and nearly two-thirds saying stress from home also increased because of covid-19. Around half of those surveyed “felt horrified and helpless,” the study said.

Unsurprisingly, mental health and physical health are a two-way circuit: Mental health issues also had an impact on individuals’ physical health and their ability to recover from the disease, according to the WHO. Individuals who had preexisting mental health concerns were shown to be the most likely to suffer from severe illness or death as a result of covid-19.

So what’s been causing the spike in mental health issues? Stress is a major culprit: Depression and anxiety rates have increased significantly since 2020 due to the increasing prevalence of stress-inducing life conditions, including social isolation, unemployment, loss of loved ones, and financial instability, among others, according to the OECD. “High risk calls have now become a daily occurrence, ranging from child or adult safeguarding concerns to someone who might have taken a significant amount of pills, or they might be standing on a bridge,” CEO of British mental health provider Health Assured Bertrand Stern-Gillet told the Financial Times.

This surge in mental health conditions prompted a widespread government response: “Concerns about potential increases in mental health conditions had already prompted 90% of countries surveyed to include mental health and psychosocial support in their COVID-19 response plans,” according to the WHO.

But the growing demand for mental health support also led to shortages on the service supply side: “For much of the pandemic, services for mental, neurological and substance use conditions were the most disrupted among all essential health services,” the WHO said. However, by the end of 2021, it seems that many people who need care have also turned to online support, but digital resources remain scarce in developing countries. This gap has led global organizations such as the WHO and OECD to develop levitra generique and mental health support plans, with the WHO publishing awareness material geared towards different age groups and updating the Comprehensive Mental Health Action Plan 2013-2030 with support indicators for mental illness. OECD countries have developed support lines, improved access to mental health services, and promoted programs in schools and workplaces to raise awareness about mental health issues and how to handle them.

What better time to promote mental health than when the entire world is watching the same global event? The WHO is capitalizing on the World Cup in Qatar to promote mental health awareness and wellbeing, with a new initiative to set up “Friendship Benches” across key locations in Doha, according to a UN statement. The idea behind this project was to shed light on the significance of mental health and well-being, and according to WHO Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “The bench is a simple yet powerful vehicle for promoting mental health, from park benches where people gather to football stadiums where players and staff watch their teams play for the joy and promise of sports and success.”

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

20 November-18 December (Sunday-Sunday): 2022 Fifa World Cup, Qatar.

27-28 November (Sunday-Monday): The first edition of the Egypt Media Forum.

27-30 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT and Pafix, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

29 November – 6 December (Tuesday-Tuesday): US and Russia to hold talks on resuming mutual nuclear inspections in Cairo.

DECEMBER

1 December (Thursday): Sphinx International Airport will begin operating international flights.

1 December (Thursday): Contractors to break ground on Egypt-Saudi interconnection project.

2-3 December (Thursday-Saturday): BiznEX kicks off at Mamsha Ahl Misr.

3 December (Saturday): Dior Men’s pre-fall collection show in Giza.

4 December (Sunday): House back in session.

4 December (Sunday): OPEC+ meeting.

5-8 December (Monday-Thursday): QS Reimagine Education Awards and Conference, multiple locations.

5-7 December (Monday-Wednesday): Food Africa 2022 kicks off at Egypt International Exhibitions Center.

6 December (Tuesday): Enterprise Climate X Forum, Grand Egyptian Museum.

7 December (Wednesday): Euromoney Egypt 2022 conference

10 December (Saturday): The TriFactory’s Pyramids Half Marathon.

10-12 December (Saturday-Monday): The 2nd edition of the Nebu Expo for Gold and Jewelry kicks off.

13-14 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

13-15 December (Tuesday-Thursday): US-Africa Leaders Summit.

15 December (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

20 December (Tuesday): EGX-listed Pachin will brief shareholders on offers received to acquire the company in an ordinary general assembly.

22 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

December: The Sixth of October dry port will begin operations.

December: Egyptian Automotive Summit.

December: Egypt to expand Sudan electricity link capacity to 300 MW.

December: Chinese President Xi Jinping visit to Saudi Arabia

JANUARY 2023

January: EGX-listed companies and non-bank lenders will submit ESG reports for the first time.

January: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

January: Infinity + Africa Finance Corporation to close acquisition of Lekela Power.

1 January (Sunday): Use of Nafeza becomes compulsory for air freight.

1 January (Sunday): Residential electricity bills are set to rise as per the government’s six-year roadmap (pdf) to restructure electricity prices by 2025.

7 January (Saturday): Coptic Christmas.

24 January-6 February: The 54th Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibition Center

25 January (Wednesday): 25 January revolution anniversary / Police Day.

26 January (Thursday): President El Sisi will visit India as “chief guest” at celebrations to mark the 74th anniversary of Indian independence.

26 January (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 25 January revolution anniversary / Police Day.

30 January-1 February (Monday-Wednesday): CI Capital’s Annual MENA Investor Conference 2023, Cairo, Egypt.

FEBRUARY 2023

11 February (Saturday): Second semester of 2022-2023 academic year begins for public universities.

13-15 February (Monday-Wednesday): The Egypt Petroleum Show (Egyps), Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

23-27 February (Thursday-Monday): Annual Business Women of Egypt’s Women for Success conference.

MARCH 2023

March: 4Q2022 earnings season.

23 March (Wednesday): First day of Ramadan (TBC). Maghreb will be at 6:08pm CLT.

APRIL 2023

1 April (Saturday): Deadline for banks to establish sustainability unit.

17 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

22 April (Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Tuesday): Sinai Liberation Day.

27 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

Late April – 15 May: 1Q2023 earnings season.

MAY 2023

1 May (Monday): Labor Day.

4 May (Thursday) National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

22-26 May (Monday-Friday): Egypt will host the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings in Sharm El Sheikh.

JUNE 2023

19-21 June (Monday-Wednesday) Egypt Infrastructure and Water Expo debuts at the Egypt International Exhibition Center.

28 June-2 July (Wednesday-Sunday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Friday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY 2023

18 July (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

20 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Sunday): Revolution Day.

27 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day.

Late July-14 August: 2Q2023 earnings season.

SEPTEMBER 2023

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER 2023

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2022: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2022: IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Egypt. Date + location TBA.

2H 2022: The government will have vaccinated 70% of the population.

3Q 2022: Ayady’s consumer financing arm, The Egyptian Company for Consumer Finance Services, to release its first financing product.

3Q 2022: Swvl to close acquisition of Urbvan Mobility.

End of December/early January: SFE’s pre-IPO fund to kick off roadshow.

4Q 2022: Electricity Ministry to tender six solar projects in Aswan Governorate.

4Q 2022: Raya Holding subsidiary Aman and Qalaa Holdings’ Taqa Arabia to launch their fintech company.

4Q 2022: Saudi Arabia’s Jamjoom Pharma to inaugurate its EGP 1 bn pharma factory in El Obour.

End of 2022: Decent Life first phase scheduled for completion.

End of 2022: e-Aswaaq’s tourism platform will complete the roll out of its ticketing and online booking portal across Egypt.

2023: Egypt will host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors in 2023.

1Q 2023: Adnoc Distribution’s acquisition of 50% of TotalEnergies Egypt to close.

1Q 2023: Internal trade database to launch.

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