PM — We’re up again in Afcon tonight

Good afternoon, wonderful people. It’s been a pleasantly relaxing day for news after the insanity of this morning, so we propose you take a moment or two and begin your afternoon commute with this gloriously profane “digital syllabus” from a 74-year-old US professor who’s clearly not delighted a the prospect of being forced into the classroom (watch, runtime: 14:14). It’s worth watching all the way through.

Maybe it’s inspiration for your next earnings call or team video call?

(We’re not joking about this being gloriously profane — do not want this playing with little ears listening. The professor in question has been suspended for offending the tender ears of his students.)

THE BIG STORY TODAY

BUDGET WATCH- Egypt registered a EGP 3.2 bn primary surplus in 1H2021-2022, rising 10.3% y-o-y, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said today, according to a statement. The surplus came on the back of a 15.7% y-o-y increase in tax revenues, Maait added. Government spending increased 12% y-o-y to EGP 82 bn in the first half of the fiscal year, with increased allocation going towards health services and projects such as the Decent Life initiative.

HAPPENING NOW-

It’s Day 3 of digital Davos: Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud is among the public speakers in a panel to discuss the transition to green energy, which is ongoing as we hit “send” on this afternoon’s edition. Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad will make an appearance later today in a discussion on investment in low-carbon technologies.

Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel Aty is at the Dubai Expo today for the two-day Water-Food-Energy Summit, which kicked off yesterday, according to the ministry.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be in town later today for a trip lasting through Friday in what will be the first visit to Egypt by a South Korean president in 16 years. Moon will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi during a regional tour. The South Korean leader was in Riyadh earlier today, after swinging through the UAE on Monday.

On the agenda: The two presidents are expected to hold talks with the aim of signing a trade agreement between the countries, as well as discuss cooperation on EVs, water desalination, green hydrogen and renewables.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Public sector minimum wage to rise 12.5% from July: The monthly minimum wage paid to public sector workers will rise to EGP 2.7k from EGP 2.4k as of the start of the next fiscal year in July on the instruction of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.
• Vodacom shareholders approve Vodafone Egypt acquisition: A majority of South Africa’s Vodacom Plc shareholders approved the acquisition of Vodafone Group’s 55% stake in Vodafone Egypt.
• Dabaa on track: Construction on the Dabaa nuclear power plant is on track to begin “this summer, tentatively in July,” the director of Russia’s state-owned Rosatom General Alexey Likhachev said.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s another economics-centric news day in the global business press, leading with UK inflation spiking to its highest rate in three decades. The unexpected jump, which saw consumer prices increase 5.4% last month, was driven largely by food and beverages, furniture, and hospitality, puts added pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to raise interest rates again next month, Bloomberg suggests. The inflation rate, which is outstripping wage increases, has weakened household spending and will likely affect utility bills, which are expected to jump in April. In December, BOE raised interest rates for the first time since the outset of the pandemic. In 4Q2021, UK inflation hit 4.9%, up from a forecast 4.3%. The story is also getting ink from CNN, the Guardian, and CNBC, among others.

The knock-on effect: Yields on Germany’s 10-year Bund are officially in positive territory for the first time in nearly three years, with investors pricing in interest rate hikes as policymakers look to rein in inflation, the Financial Times reports. The UK’s higher-than-expected inflation figures “added to the upward pressure” on the Bund and other global bonds, the FT notes.

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FOR TOMORROW- Taking stock of Nafeza: Lynx Strategic Business Advisors is hosting a webinar tomorrow at 1pm CLT that will see Customs Authority chief Elshahat Ghatwary and Misr Technology Services’ Khaled Nassef discuss the progress on implementing the new digital customs system, Nafeza. The keynote speakers will also discuss their recommendations for the way forward and how to expand the application of the system. You can register for the webinar here.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Cairo International Book Fair opens next Wednesday, 26 January at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event runs 13 days until 7 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Another freezing night ahead: Expect a daytime high of 15°C and a nighttime low of 6°C overnight, our favorite weather app tells us. Expect more of the same (plus or minus a degree or two) for the next 10 days.

2022 could be a slowdown year for ESG funds: ESG-focused funds are facing pressure from rising research costs and tech stocks — which previously helped bolster the investments’ performance over the past year — falling out of favor, signaling a potentially challenging year for the asset class, the Financial Times reports. The US Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn has put a damper on tech equity rallies, threatening a significant factor aiding the funds’ growth and fueling a sell-off in some specialist ESG-focused companies. Analysts are concerned that if the current shift in the market persists, the sector could suffer a big hit, especially when ESG fund managers are already bearing the brunt of high research costs, which are expected to reach USD 1.3 bn globally this year.

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The robots are coming, Chapter XVII: Are humans going to be edged out of financial advising? Robo-advisors, or algorithms developed to automate digital investing, may soon be managing upward of USD 1 tn of wealth in the US, reports CNBC. A decade after they first began appearing in 2008, automated financial services were managing around USD 785 bn. Launched both by independent shops and traditional Wall Street brokerages to engage younger investors interested in online stock trading and crypto, robo-advisors offer a low barrier to entry and are best suited to new investors who want to outsource money management at a low cost. Robo-advisors can move around anything from a few bucks to USD 3k, versus the minimums of USD 250k that traditional firms charge, while charging a fraction of the fees that traditional advisors charge. Robo-advisors still fall short in the “human” aspect of advising, lacking the ability to help clients understand the reasoning behind different strategy recommendations, read body language, measure client satisfaction, or manage clients needs beyond investments.

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Who knew taxing the rich could help the poor? A bold wealth tax on the world’s fat cats could help vaccinate everyone on the planet and lift a majority of the population out of poverty, according to an analysis of 66 nations by Oxfam and others. The analysis is based on an initial 2% tax rate on wealth over USD 5 mn, which expands to 5% on wealth over USD 1 bn. The analysis says it would generate USD 2.52 tn — enough to cover the cost of two vaccine shots and a booster for the world’s estimated 8 bn people. World Bank data suggests that as of December, only 4% of citizens in developing countries were vaccinated, compared to more than 80% of citizens of developed nations, Bloomberg reports.

A rare 555.55 carat (yes, you read that correctly) black diamond is going on auction at Sotheby’s in February, where it’s expected to fetch GBP 5 mn or more, CNN reports. The naturally faceted Carbonado Diamond — described as a “cosmic wonder’’ and a “true natural phenomenon” —is believed to have originated in outer space, created either through meteoric impact or through an asteroid that collided with our planet bns of years ago.

Not a 5G conspiracy: Flights are steering clear of the US as 5G technology is being rolled out over concerns from airlines that it could disrupt aircraft radar altimeters and key safety systems, reports Bloomberg. Emirates Airlines, Japan Airlines, British Airways, and Korean Air Lines are among the carriers that have rerouted or canceled flights for the coming days. The concern has led AT&T and Verizon — the companies that are implementing the 5G rollout — to say they would delay turning on the new cell towers around key airports after talks with US government officials, according to Reuters.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

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Take a trip down espionage history lane with Spycraft: The eight-episode Netflix docuseries starts from the 20th century, looking at how different countries began to utilize (rapidly evolving) tech to spy on each other. One of the episodes shows how the Ruskies spied on the US for three years by secretly attaching a microphone to the US ambassador’s shoe. Other episodes show how spies used poison, beautiful women, and special ops teams in their plans to gather information. In later episodes, Spycraft goes into how modern espionage utilizes drones and hacking to keep an eye on enemies (or supposed friends). The show is fast-paced and intelligent, giving you an overview of the spy industry and the hidden world around us.

⚽ Egypt is up once again in Afcon tonight, playing against Sudan at 9pm. The rest of Group D — Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau — are also hitting the field at the same time, with today adding a bit more clarity on where the teams all stand. Should Guinea-Bissau beat Nigeria and Egypt draw or lose to Sudan, the Pharaohs still have a possibility of going through, courtesy of rules that see the four highest-ranked third-placed teams progress.

Group D so far: Nigeria (6 points) | Egypt (3 points) | Guinea-Bissau (1 point) | Sudan (1 point).

English Premier League: Leicester City and Tottenham will kick off at 9:30pm while Brentford and Man United will hit the field soon after at 10pm.

La Liga: Celta Vigo will face Osasuna at 8pm while Valencia will play Sevilla at 10:30pm.

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid are competing at 10pm today in the Copa Del Ray.

Coppa Italia: Sassuolo play Cagliari at 6:30pm and Inter will face Empoli at 10pm.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
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Jordanian underground band Autostrad are performing at Cairo Jazz Club 610 tonight at 9pm. Bakir will also be taking the stage to end the night with a DJ set.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

The recipe for business success includes a pinch of emotional ingredients: In his new book, Twelve and a Half, bestselling author, entrepreneur, and investor Gary Vaynerchuk argues that there are 12 essential emotional skills that need to be present in a business to accelerate its success. Leaders have often relied on quantifiable hard skills to lead decision making, while ignoring soft skills in their employees such as curiosity and self-awareness. However, Vaynerchuk argues that it's these emotional traits that need to be pulled out of the toolbox in various business situations to assess, negotiate, and determine the path you’ll take. His book teaches you how to foster the 12 skills you need — such as patience, humility, conviction, and ambition— and how to use them in varying mixtures, depending on the situation.

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 724 mn (37.5% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is down 2.0% YTD.

In the green: TMG Holding (+1.0%) and Orascom Development Egypt (+0.4%).

In the red: MM Group (-4.4%), CIRA (-4.3%) and Rameda (-2.9%).

This much is clear: Covid-19 is sticking for a while longer. But we could soon put the word “pandemic” in our archives: At the outset of the pandemic, the prevailing hope was that time and vaccines would eventually wipe out covid-19. But as some countries transition into booster rollouts and are still struggling to contain outbreaks, it seems a zero-covid strategy might be out of reach, writes Nature.

The most optimistic case is now for the virus to become endemic, joining the swarm of illnesses such as common colds, HIV, measles, malaria and tuberculosis. Like other respiratory viruses, there will be times of year when covid infections peak — most likely the colder fall and winter months, in tandem with the flu season — but it will stop becoming such a determining factor in our lives the way it is now.

First things first: What does it mean for covid-19 to be endemic? It essentially means that the pandemic will not end with the virus disappearing, but that enough people will get immune protection through vaccinations and natural infections that covid-19 will be less transmissible and lead to less hospitalization and death, Harvard Associate Professor of Immunology and Infectious Diseases Yonatan Grad said in an interview. Another way to spot that covid-19 has become endemic is if the reproductive number is stable at one, explained Boston University epidemiologist Eleanor Murray to Vox. “That means one infected person, on average, infects one other person,” she said. This would cause case levels to be consistent and predictable — unlike the “boom and bust” waves so far in the pandemic, writes BBC.

It’s important to remember that even endemic diseases are still dangerous — just less so: For example, smallpox was once endemic and killed a third of people who were infected — while Malaria is still endemic and causes around 600k deaths a year. That being said, even endemic covid is likely to remain fatal for the old and vulnerable. “If you’re willing to tolerate zero deaths from covid, then we’re facing a whole raft of restrictions and it’s not game over,” Prof Julian Hiscox, chairman in infection and global health at the University of Liverpool told BBC. Instead, we should aim for endemic covid to have the same fatality rate as the flu, which kills 200-300 people a day over winter with nobody wearing a mask or socially distancing, Hiscox argues.

Some scientists say the omicron variant could be key to the virus becoming endemic: The new variant is less severe than its predecessors, the beta and delta strains, giving experts hope that it could give enough people natural immunity to help steer the covid pandemic into an endemic phase, they told CNBC.

While others say it could delay endemicity: Given that the omicron variant is seven times more infectious than its predecessors, it is leading to a massive increase in cases and, at times, hospitalizations and deaths. That could further stress healthcare systems that are already in dire straits, Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Canada’s University of Saskatchewan told Vox. That’s why Rasmussen concludes that “omicron certainly has the potential to delay endemicity,” especially as existing vaccines prove less effective against the strain.

Nonetheless, some countries are rushing to consider the virus endemic: A handful of European countries — such as UK, France, and Spain — have begun to move their mitigation policies off emergency footing as their populations experience the less severe variant, according to the New York Times. The changes include shorter isolation periods and the elimination of pre-departure tests for travel, for example.

…despite warnings that it’s too soon: The World Health Organization (WHO) has said it’s too soon to suggest the world is moving into an endemic phase of covid in 2022 as there’s still a huge amount of uncertainty. “We still have a virus that’s evolving quite quickly and posing new challenges so we’re certainly not at the point of being able to call it endemic. It might become endemic in due course but pinning that down to 2022 is a bit difficult at this stage,” said Catherine Smallwood, a senior emergency officer at WHO Europe, during a press conference, reports CNBC.

And in Africa, it might be endemic whether we like it or not: Due to low availability of vaccine doses in several countries on the continent, people are learning to live with the covid-19 virus out of necessity. Africa needs to vaccinate 70-80% of the population by the end of 2022 or else the virus is sure to remain a permanent fixture on the continent, warned Africa Centers for Disease Control Director, Dr John Nkengasong, reports Deutsche Welle.

In fact, Omicron could make things worse: Scientists are warning that the emergence of omicron practically ensures that it won’t be the last variant to hit the globe, reports ABC News. The faster omicron spreads to a larger population, the bigger the chance there is for mutations to occur, leading to more variants, Leonardo Martinez, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Boston University, said. There are many ways a new variant could emerge, such as incubation in animals or people getting double infections, such as both omicron and delta, and creating “Frankenvariants.”

A new variant could be a major curve ball: A new variant that can outcompete omicron and cause significantly more severe disease could completely throw off the course of covid becoming endemic. There is also no certainty that existing vaccines will work against them.

The only certainty at the moment: More shots. The near certainty is there will be booster vaccines for the vulnerable come winter in order to top up their protection through winter. There will also be more shots developed if variants continue to appear and existing vaccines fail to provide immunity.