Analysts see no rate cuts before 3Q at the earliest

Inflation is driving the conversation on the economy today after news that annual headline inflation rose to 14.1% in May from 13% in April, dampening hopes for an interest rate cut. With fuel and electricity subsidy cuts expected by the end of the month, most research houses are calling an inflationary spike in 3Q2019 followed by a cooldown in 4Q2019.

How much of a spike can we expect?

• Beltone’s Alia Mamdouh expects a 2.5-3.5 ppt increase in annual headline inflation throughout 3Q2019 driven by subsidy cuts. Beltone’s research note is here (pdf) if you’d like to dig deeper.
• Shuaa’s Esraa Ahmed expects inflation to peak at 16% early in the third quarter, which starts in July. A gentler rate of increase on electricity prices than last year and current oil prices will help mitigate the inflationary bite, Ahmed suggests. Shuaa’s note is here (pdf).
• Pharos’s Sandy Eskaros, meanwhile, is a bit more optimistic, suggesting inflation will hover around 14% in the period running June through August. Pharos is revising its inflation forecast for 2019 upward, noting that it expects average inflation in 2019 of 12.8%, up from an initial expectation of 12.4%.
• EFG Hermes’s Mohamed Abu Basha and Mostafa El Bakly wrote yesterday that the “outturn [in May] came below our forecast of 15%” and noted that while it was up, inflation “recorded one of its lowest increases in the past few years, considering the Ramadan seasonality.” They see inflation at just 10-11% by end-2019 and predict coming subsidy cuts will have a muted impact: The cuts will “likely be half or less than the 40% average increase of last year” thanks to the appreciation of the EGP and a decline in oil prices.

Lest you had a doubt, don’t expect the central bank to cut interest rates before fall. Such is the clear consensus among analysts, who differ only on the finer details.Pharos’s Eskaros is calling 100-200bps of rate cuts in the fourth quarter, while over at EFG, Abu Basha and El Bakly write that, “policy rates are set for a 100-200bps of rate cuts in 2H19, starting with September at the earliest. We foresee another 200-300bps of rate cuts in 2020 as inflation normalises further.”

Expect lots and lots of news on the legislative front from now until the end of this month and maybe into July. Why?

The House is getting angsty about summer recess: Like procrastinating college students trying to get their papers in before summer vacation, our elected representatives are rushing to push through new bills and amendments to existing legislation before they hit the beach in Sahel.

Lots of business-relevant legislation came up for discussion yesterday, among them the stamp tax, the Investment Act, the Capital Markets Act, as well as pensions increases. We have chapter and verse in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

The next hot item for the House will be the FY2019-2020 budget. Look for plenty of news from House committees next week before the general assembly reconvenes on 22 June.

The earliest the House can recess is 1 July (each session lasts a minimum of nine months) and MPs are constitutionally required to be back in their seats by the first Thursday in October for the fall session.

Among the events you may want to mark on your calendars before you head off for summer break:

• Our friends at Pharos are holding their annual investor conference (pdf) in Hurghada this month from 19-20 June;
• President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is expected to attend US-Africa Business summit in Mozambique, which runs from 18-21 June;
• Middle East and Africa Rail Show will take place at the Egypt International Exhibition Center, Nasr City on 16-18 June;
• Seamless North Africa will be held at the Nile Ritz-Carlton on 17-18 June;
• Cairo Technology Week will run next week at the Hilton Heliopolis on 17-19 June.

Egypt is definitely attending the Trump-Kushner Palestine economic summit in Bahrainlater this month. OK, so we pretty much knew this already, but now we have official confirmation courtesy of US officials. Reuters has more on the gathering, slated to run 25-26 June.

The G20 summit will take place in Japan on 28-29 June. Not Egypt-specific, but worth breaking out the popcorn to observe from afar — and fear how markets will react.

Are we seeing an economic recovery in the UAE and Saudi? The May purchasing managers’ index for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE showed each of the major Gulf players moving toward economic recovery. The UAE posted its highest reading (pdf) since October 2014 at 59.4, and Saudi its highest (pdf) since December 2017 at 57.3. Increases in oil prices and regional demand appear to be benefiting the private sector in both countries, but haven’t yet translated into more jobs or higher wages.

We’re getting pwned by the GCC on the PMI: As we noted yesterday, Egypt’s non-oil business activity contracted in May after having expanded the previous month for the first time since August 2018. The latest purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.2, down from 50.8 in April.

*** PSA- Speaking of which: The sadly indispensable website Have I Been Pwned is now for sale, its creator wrote yesterday. Have you never used Have I Been Pwned? Go run your email address through it now.

Passive funds are suckers for the Tadawul: Fresh off its inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE Russell EM equity indices, Saudi Arabia could soon overtake India as the biggest receiver of inflows into exchange-traded funds, Bloomberg says. The largest Tadawul ETF saw almost USD 910 mn of net inflows in May alone, pushing total ETF inflows into Saudi equities to USD 2.2 bn as of yesterday (compared to India’s USD 2.5 bn).

Investor relations directors (in the US) will have one less ESG survey to fill out after Paul Tudor Jones’ Just Capital agreed to use “metrics developed by the Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism in its rankings, which gauge US companies by the issues that Americans tell pollsters they care about more than shareholder returns,” the Financial Times reports. Our call for the next big business in ESG: The scramble to become The One Provider of Meaningful Certification to the investing community.

** Sign of the times: Extreme weather sends energy demand growth to a nine-year high, setting the stage for more climate change and … more energy demand. Go read the story in the Financial Times and then dig much deeper in BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy for 2019 (pdf), out now.

International headlines worth knowing about this morning:

• Ebola has crossed from Congo into Uganda, marking what the FT calls a “significant escalation” of the epidemic. The story isn’t on the front pages yet, but it’s all over the global press, so watch this space. (Reuters | NYT | BBC)
• Next up on the conveyor belt of tech IPOs: Revenues at Slack will grow by up to 50% this year, the company projected on Monday as it prepares to debut on the NYSE later this month. (WSJ)
• Which UK Conservative minister will be next to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Brexit? The final 10 candidates competing to become the next Tory leader (and UK prime minister) have been announced. The BBC has all you need to know about the final 10 candidates.

Some miscellany to help your morning commute pass just a little bit faster today:

• For photographers and gear nerds alike, Matthew Piers Robertson’s blog is great — and his list headlined Unsolicited Advice is not only photography advice, its good life advice, too.
• “The next big thing in fashion? Not washing your clothes” in Fast Company just made us … shudder, and not in a good way.
• Adam Savage (the one from Mythbusters with hair, but no beret) is back with a new show and a book. True nerds like us will enjoy this interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Oil and gas industry = good. Foreign Policy Magazine = not good. Those were the main messages on the airwaves last night.

Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal focused on Oil Minister Tarek El Molla’s attendance at the Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie (OME) in Paris, where he revealed that Egypt’s oil and gas production has reached 1.9 mn bbl of oil equivalent a day, the highest level in the country's history. Assal then spoke to ministry spokesman Hamdy Abdel Aziz about a number of ongoing projects in the oil, gas and petrochem sectors (watch, runtime: 7:02).

Fighting fake news with cold, hard facts: Morsi-era Investment Minister Yehia Hamed’s hit piece in Foreign Policy earlier this week grabbed the attention of Al Hayah Al Youm’s Khaled Abu Bakr, who highlighted a riposte currently doing the rounds online written by Madbouly’s economic adviser Gihan Saleh (watch, runtime: 7:38). Saleh accuses Hamed of making “numerous false and incorrect statements” to “hide and distort facts.” Abu Bakr also mentioned Al Shorouk’s Ziad Bahaa El Din’s review of the piece, which criticized Hamed’s argument for being overtly political.

EXCLUSIVE- Gov’t set to issue next month its first zero-coupon bonds since 2013: The government is planning to issue in July its first local zero-coupon bonds since 2013, two government officials told Enterprise. Multiple zero-coupon bond issuances are planned for the coming fiscal year, the sources told us, adding that the government will likely sell them with maturities ranging between 18 months and three years. The sources said that the plans come on the back of strong investor demand.

Zero-coupon bond crash course: Zero-coupon bonds are debt instruments that do not pay interest, but are bought and sold at a heavy discount. Because the trading price is much lower than the bond’s face value, investors make returns when the bond is redeemed at maturity. Bonds with a longer maturity period are purchased at a lower price than short-term bonds, although most zero-coupon bonds carry tenors of at least 10 years.

Background: The idea to resurrect zero-coupon bonds was floated back in December, when Egypt began prioritizing long-term debt and diversifying its sources of funding as part of its new strategy to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to 80% by 2022. The government is keen to lower its reliance on short-term debt in FY2019-2020, which accounts for 55% of the country’s total debt load, the officials told us yesterday. The government expects debt service payments to rise to EGP 569.1 bn in FY2019-2020 compared to EGP 541 bn in the current fiscal year.

LEGISLATION WATCH- It’s the busiest day in the House since, well, last June: It’s that time of the year, ladies and gentlemen, when our esteemed representatives are looking to close up shop before the summer recess. As is typical at this time of the year, the rate of legislative activity spikes, and yesterday we saw a number of decisions (and delays) on key pieces of business-relevant legislation:

Planning committee delays stamp tax decision: The House Planning and Budget Committee has postponed a decision on amendments that would leave the stamp tax on EGX transactions unchanged at 0.15% in FY2019-2020, Al Shorouk reports. The committee said that it did not have enough information to make a decision and that it required more time to collect EGX data. The stamp tax on stock market transactions was scheduled to increase to 0.175% on 1 June but the Finance Ministry called it off last month in a move designed to ease the financial burden on traders. The Finance Ministry introduced the tax at 0.125% in 2017, and planned to increase it annually over a three-year period.

Punitive measures set under draft Mineral Resources Act: The House Industry Committee signed off on new amendments to the Mineral Resources Act that impose harsher punishments on wildcat miners who dig and drill without a license, local press reported. Offenders could now face a minimum one-year jail sentence and a fine between EGP 50,000 and EGP 5 mn. Mining outside the boundaries of the concession area carries a fine of between EGP 100,000 and EGP 5 mn, a figure that would double for repeat violations. People who transport material from an unlicensed mine could spend between three and six months in jail and receive a fine to the tune of double the value of the material transported. Issuing a mining license on agricultural land without the approval of the Agriculture Ministry will be punished with a fine ranging from EGP 200,000 to EGP 1 mn. You can check out new details on the act that were revealed earlier this week here.

Gov’t can step in if court revokes privatization: The House’s general assembly gave its final approval to a law presented by the government that would refer certain disputes over privatization to the cabinet’s dispute resolution committee, according to the local press. The law specifically addresses cases where Egyptian courts overturn decisions by the government to sell off state assets. Egypt has seen a spate of such rulings following the events of 25 January 2011. Examples include an administrative court ruling in May 2011 that rolled-back the sale of ailing retailer Omar Effendi to Saudi business figure Gumail Al Kunbeet and a separate ruling later in the year to keep Nile Cotton Ginning Company under state control.

Real estate appraisals get committee-level sign-off: The House Economic Committee approved an amendment to the Investment Act that would set new standards for real estate appraisals and mandates the use of appraisers listed with the Financial Regulatory Authority, Al Mal reports.

LEGISLATION WATCH- House approves govt-proposed amendments to administrative prosecution, judicial authorities act: Beyond the economy, the House of Representatives voted yesterday on several pieces of high-profile legislation.

Changes to laws on prosecution, judicial authority: First, the general assembly voted to approve government-proposed amendments to the Administrative Prosecution Authority Act and the Judicial Authority Act, the local press reported. The amendments grant the president authority to appoint the head of each of the authorities from pools of the seven most-senior prosecutors or judges. Appointees will hold office for four-year terms or until they hit retirement age, whichever is earlier, and would be limited to one term in office.

House greenlights 15% increase in pensions: The House has also given a final nod to a government-proposed bill that would increase pensions by 15%, with a minimum increase of EGP 150 and a maximum pension ceiling of EGP 900, Al Shorouk reports. The increases will roll out on 1 July.

House committee approves amendment to controversial “old rent” law: A House committee approved yesterday a proposed amendment that would see commercial tenants who signed long-term leases before 1996 pay significantly higher rents, Al Shorouk reported. If passed in a final vote by the general assembly, the change would subject commercial tenants to an instant 5x hike in rent and a 15% annual increase for five years. The amendment applies only to non-residential use of properties.

Could this revive an age-old rent debate? The old leasing law still governs many contracts signed on a near-permanent basis eons ago. Legislators have been reluctant to reform the law, especially when it came to stipulations applying to homes, as any change would have meant countless families will be out on the streets.

INVESTMENT WATCH- Orcas raises USD 500k in Algebra-led pre-Series A funding round: Egyptian edtech startup Orcas has raised USD 500,000 in a pre-Series A funding round led by our friends at Algebra Ventures, the company announced in a statement (pdf). San Francisco-based VC fund NFX Capital participated in the funding round, the company said, without revealing the size of its investment. Orcas provides an app-based platform for students and parents to connect with verified, user-rated tutors and babysitters. The company currently has 20k students registered on the app and is active in Cairo, Alexandria, El Gouna and the North Coast. Orcas is Algebra’s second investment in a learning platform in the Middle East after backing Little Thinking Minds in 2018. NFX Capital is a VC fund backed by our friends at CIRA; it has invested in portfolio companies in the US, India, China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

REGULATION WATCH- Cabinet amends Capital Markets Act regs on real estate funds: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has issued a decree amending the executive regulations of the Capital Markets Act governing real estate funds, Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) boss Mohamed Omran said in a statement (pdf).

What are the amendments all about? The amendments stipulate that any major financial action taken by the fund receive approval from all investors or their trustees. They also stipulate that asset managers conduct evaluations for their non-listed real estate funds every six months instead of three previously. Listed real estate funds will continue to be assessed every three months, Omran said. The amendments also require the use of FRA-certified experts to appraise fund assets. Separately, the FRA is also currently in talks with the Finance Ministry to discuss tax incentives to encourage real estate investment through these types of funds.

EARNINGS WATCH- Palm Hills Development (PHD) reported a 37% y-o-y drop in 1Q2019 net profit to EGP 141.2 mn, down from EGP 224.2 mn a year earlier, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Revenues for the quarter fell 35% y-o-y to EGP 958.1 mn. The company’s board announced on Monday (pdf) that it has decided to close its Dubai branch.

Orascom Investment Holding (OIH) recorded net losses of EGP 78.9 mn in 1Q2019, a 35% decrease from their EGP 121.5 mn loss in 1Q2018, the company said in a bourse filing (pdf). Revenues inched lower to about EGP 409 mn in 1Q2019 compared to EGP 409.5 mn a year earlier.

Leading the conversation again this morning: Egypt’s attempts to prevent Christie’s from auctioning a 3,000 year-old bust of Tutankhamun (which authorities believe was illegally taken from Karnak Temple). Wire coverage in the Associated Press is being widely picked up in the western press, including in Bloomberg, the New York Times and the Washington Post. Bloomberg is also out with a short video featuring an interview with Mostafa Waziri, secretary-general of the Supreme Council of Antiquities.

Also of note: Trump should put pressure on Egypt to block Iranian oil tankers from accessing the Suez Canal, foreign policy hawk David Adesnik writes in an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal.

Also worth your time this morning:

• LGBTQ rights: In an article examining the recent pro-LGBT court ruling in Botswana, The New York Times lists Egypt as one of Africa’s most hostile countries for the LGBT community.
• More 2013 protest sentences: An Egyptian court upheld 25-year prison sentences for 22 defendants convicted in the 2013 protests, including Ikhwan mufti Abdul Rahman Al Barr, Asharq Al Awsat reports.
• Ikhwan and Sudan: Egypt is anxious to ensure that the Muslim Brotherhood does not gain a foothold in Sudan, political analysts tell Al Monitor.

El Sisi’s meeting with USCENTCOM commander tops the front pages: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meeting with commander of the US Central Command (USCENTCOM)Kenneth Mackenzie topped the front pages of all three government dailies this morning (Al Ahram | Al Akhbar | Al Gomhuria). Mackenzie praised the strong military ties between the two countries and pledged to support Egypt’s efforts to counter terrorism in the region, according to an Ittihadiya statement.

The robots are watching, but can they catch rogue traders? Banks are increasingly using AI to flag the warning signs of rogue trading, in the hope of saving bns and avoiding public embarrassment, this FT video shows (watch, runtime: 01:37). Programs that monitor behavior (like when traders use their computers and how they phrase their emails) then apply advanced analytics to spot potential red flags. And some programs, like IBM’s Watson, plan to look in more detail at publicly available information, including legal convictions and divorce settlements, to assess which individuals could be a bigger risk for rogue trading due to their circumstances.

This isn’t new: We noted back in March an FT story on banks using AI scan email, IM and other bits of data for clues a trader might go rogue — while others are using robots to figure out whether you’re likely to quit your job sometime soon.

Libya oil czar accuses Egypt, UAE of buying oil from Haftar at below market prices: The chairman of Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), Mustafa Sanalla, has accused Egyptian and UAE-based companies of purchasing oil from fields controlled by General Khalifa Haftar’s forces in the east at below-market prices, according to The Libyan Observer. Sanalla alleges that companies have bought oil for USD 55 bbl, which is less than the price sold by the NOC.

The Public Enterprises Ministry is partnering up with private sector investors to establish an export trading firm in Africa as well as to launch new shipping lines and logistics hubs, Al Mal cited Minister Hisham Tawfik as saying. The ministry has begun implementing the initiative through its Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport and Misr Insurance Holding Company by launching a comprehensive series of transport and logistics services to support trade with East and Central Africa.

Scatec Solar has launched commercial operations on the third of six planned 65 MW photovoltaic installations that it is constructing in Egypt’s 1.8 GW Benban solar park, Renewables Now reports. This comes just a week after the Norwegian company announced that commercial operations on the second plant had been launched. When finalized, the six plants will comprise a 400 MW solar facility, capable of generating 870 GWh each year. The whole project is expected to be completed by the end of 2019.

The Transport Ministry, in cooperation with the Finance Ministry, will begin on 11 July accepting tenders from companies hoping to build Egypt’s first dry port in 6 October City under the PPP framework, the Finance Ministry said. The project is the first of seven dry ports the two ministries will establish together. There are three consortiums competing for the project: one led by Concor India, and includes Malaysia’s PSA and Hassan Allam; a consortium made up of the Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport and the UAE’s DP World; and one comprised of Elsewedy Electric, Schenker Egypt and 3A International.

The American University in Cairo (AUC) is launching the first undergraduate data science program in Egypt and the region in September, the university announced in a press release (pdf). We recently spoke with the program’s founder Dr. Ali Hadi about the importance of data science in the transition towards a knowledge-based economy.

The Foreign Ministry has expanded the e-visa project to allow citizens of 46 countries to apply online for visas to Egypt, MENA reports. The project has been under development since 2017, but the process has been systematized through the launch of a dedicated portal where applicants can provide information and pay for their visas using credit or debit cards in eight languages.

The government is working to develop the western strip of the North Coast into an all-year-round tourist destination, according to a cabinet statement. This will include a move to review the status of projects on land allocated to private investors in recent years.

Fawry is planning allow retailers to apply for bank loans through its Fawry Plus branches in partnership with local banks, CEO Mohamed Okasha said, according to Masrawy. The company is already involved in a “major partnership” Alexbank and Visa, and the move comes as part of its strategy to deepen its investment in technology infrastructure.

The board of directors of the Egyptian Electric Cables Company has agreed to sell or lease 43,000 sqm of its unutilized land, Managing Director of Financial Affairs Mohamed Ibrahim told the local press. The company aims to divide up the land into plots that can be sold directly to one or more buyers, he said, adding that proceeds would be invested to increase production and renovate facilities. The company, which said in April that the size of its unutilized land is about 114,000 sqm, is targeting EGP 2.4 bn in sales by the end of 2019.

Javier Aguirre unveiled the line-up of Egypt’s Afcon squad on Tuesday, with Mohamed Salah headlining a 23-man team that includes a host of the country’s best players, Super Sport reports. There is plenty of representation from national teams Al Ahly, Zamalek and Pyramids, as well as international clubs including Arsenal. As anticipation builds for the start of the tournament and Egypt’s first match against Zimbabwe on June 21, the story is attracting widespread coverage.

Here’s the full line-up:

Goalkeepers:

• Mohamed El Shenawy (Al Ahly)
• Ahmed al-Shennawy (Pyramids)
• Mahmoud Abdelrahim Genesh (Zamalek).

Defenders:

• Ahmed Elmohamady (Aston Villa/England)
• Omar Gaber (Pyramids), Ayman Ashraf (Al Ahly)
• Mahmoud Hamdy el-Winsh (Zamalek)
• Baher ElMohamady (Ismaily)
• Ahmed Hegazi (West Bromwich Albion/England)
• Ahmed Ayman Mansour (Pyramids)
• Mahmoud Alaa (Zamalek).

Midfielders:

• Waleed Soliman (Al Ahly)
• Abdullah al-Saeed (Pyramids)
• Mohamed Elneny (Arsenal/England)
• Tarek Hamed (Zamalek)
• Ali Ahmed Ghazal (Feirense/Portugal)
• Mahmoud Hassan Trezeguet (Kasimpasa/Turkey)
• Amr Warda (Atromitos/Greece)
• Nabil Emad Donga (Pyramids)
• Mohamed Salah (Liverpool/England).

Forwards:

• Marwan Mohsen (Al Ahly)
• Ahmed Hassan Kouka (Olympiacos/Greece)
• Ahmed Ali Kamel (Al Mokawloon).