Happy Sunday, friends. We’re wary of calling out slow news days after our Thursday prophecy went in the polar opposite direction, but it so far appears to be a calm-ish start to the week, as most have their gaze fixed firmly on where the EGP is headed.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

EGP WATCH- The EGP is currently sitting at 24 against the greenback: The EGP continued its slide against the USD today, dropping an additional 4% to 24, according to data from state-owned Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt. The EGP was trading at 23.03 on Thursday after the central bank pledged a “durably flexible” exchange rate as we reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF.

The EGP was trading at 19.75 on Wednesday before the latest devaluation. The EGP has so far dropped 34.5% against the USD this year.

It could go further: Analysts are penciling in anywhere between EGP 22-25 by the end of next year, with some expecting the EGP to jump to anywhere between 25-27 against the greenback and ultimately settling at EGP 25 / USD 1 by the end of 2022.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

It’s a toss-up in the international business press this afternoon between Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover (CNBC), the disintegration of the Turkey-brokered wheat pact (Financial Times), and a stampede in South Korea that has killed more than 150 people (Reuters and the Wall Street Journal).

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• What happened on Thursday? The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) at the end of last week went ahead with a series of measures to restore liquidity to the FX market and revive investor confidence in the economy — and topped it off by announcing a USD 3 bn loan agreement from the IMF.
• Chimera snaps up c.22% of MNT Investments: Netherlands-based MNT Investments — which is majority-owned by GB Auto subsidiary GB Capital — agreed to sell a 21.7% stake to a unit of Chimera Investments.
• The expat car import scheme is on its way: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has signed into law a bill that will allow Egyptian expats to import cars and get customs and tax exemptions after paying upfront in FX.

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.

In today’s issue: We profile a national initiative to help accelerate the localization of industrial production and lower the country’s reliance on imported goods.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s almost at the start of a new month- The key news triggers as we slide towards November:

• PMI: We’ll know how Egypt’s private sector fared in October on Wednesday when S&P Global releases the purchasing managers’ index. A 22-month contraction in private sector activity didn’t show signs of abating in September as high inflation continued to weigh on demand and output.
• Foreign reserves figures for October will be released next week.
• Inflation: Capmas and the central bank will release October’s inflation figures on Thursday, 10 November.

Importers, exporters and customs agents have two days left to register to join the Finance Ministry’s digital customs system Nafeza before they can no longer clear goods out of customs at seaports. (Statement | Al Mal)

The Federal Reserve will hold its penultimate policy meeting of 2022 on Tuesday and Wednesday: The folks over at the Fed aren’t expected to take their feet off the gas when they meet this week to review interest rates. The market is pricing in a fourth consecutive 75-bps rate hike on the back of another disappointing inflation release which showed core inflation reaching a new 40-year high in September despite the central bank embarking on its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. And in reports yesterday, two other indexes closely watched by the Fed provided additional evidence that inflationary pressures continued unabated in September.

The Fingerprint Summit: A forum connecting corporations, investors, entrepreneurs, and government officials to promote potential investments for the private and public sectors will be held at the Nile Ritz Carlton Hotel from 22-23 November.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Expect temperatures to rise to 28°C during the day tomorrow before falling to 18°C at night, our favorite weather app tells us.