EGP WATCH- Credit Suisse + Arqaam are the latest to comment on the fate of the EGP: FX flexibility is “definitely going to come” if Egypt is to solve its external imbalances, Zeina Rizk, executive director of fixed income asset management for Arqaam Capital, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime 5:09). The government will also likely face “more pressure on pressing forward with structural reform … improved governance,” she added, as Egyptian officials continue talks with the IMF for a fresh facility to help shore up the economy.

Credit Suisse’s head of MENA research, Fahd Iqbal, also stressed the importance of FX flexibility as a “sustainable” strategy for the currency in an interview with Bloomberg Asharq (watch, runtime: 3:40). “We expect the IMF to provide a comprehensive program that posits significant reforms and provides significant support,” Iqbal said, adding that one of the issues on which it could provide clarity is the currency. “The delay in talks with the IMF is a good sign that shows the fund is committed to and serious about supporting Egypt,” he added.

Everyone wants to talk about Egypt: Iqbal and Rizk are the latest in a chorus of analysts to appear on Bloomberg to voice their thoughts on Egypt over the past two weeks as the business newswire frames the country as “the symbol of the distress gripping poorer nations.” Bloomberg has also published a series of articles suggesting that Egypt is inching towards default — though there is by no means a consensus among experts about how dangerous this moment could prove.

Positivity from the minister, but no mention of the currency: This comes following Finance Minister Mohamed Maait’s Monday media blitz which he used to try and steer the conversation on the economy in a more positive direction. The minister shared optimistic fiscal forecasts for the coming year and announced budget and debt targets agreed with the IMF.

The consensus: Following the shock resignation of Tarek Amer as central bank governor, the consensus among everyone and their mothers is that the EGP is destined to fall against the greenback in the coming weeks and months. The question now is whether the central bank’s new governor, Hassan Abdalla, will proceed with a gradual float or go the “shock therapy” route with a sudden devaluation.

Movements this week might be answering that question: The EGP weakened against the greenback again yesterday, slipping another 0.1% to 19.28. After remaining flat for most of the month, the currency has now fallen 0.4% since 21 August when Abdalla was appointed, and is down 22.2% since the devaluation in March.