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Monday, 4 November 2019

What we’re tracking on 4 November 2019

The two big stories of the day are whoppers: Aramco’s IPO looks like a “go” as the Saudi oil giant ITF’ed yesterday, and Egypt took a huge step toward becoming the premier energy hub of the eastern Med yesterday as ownership of the East Mediterranean Gas subsea pipeline that runs between Egypt and Israel was transferred to Israel’s Delek Drilling, Texas-based Noble Energy and Egypt’s East Gas. We have chapter and verse on both stories in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry arrives in Washington today for talks with Ethiopia and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The meetings kick off on Wednesday, according to a ministry statement. World Bank officials will also sit in on the discussions. Ethiopia confirmed on Thursday that it had accepted the Trump administration’s invitation for talks, an offer that Egypt had two weeks ago before President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmedagreed at the Russia-Africa summit to resume technical talks. Ethiopia had repeatedly refused mediation by third parties and underlined that the meetings would not involve direct negotiations, but discussions only.

Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus will hold a three-way defense meeting in Athens tomorrow, according to the Cyprus Mail. The next day will see the three ministers flying to Crete to watch part of the trilateral “Medusa 9” military drill that started on Friday and wraps up on 8 November.

You can expect the Central Bank of Egypt to announce foreign reserve levels today covering the status as of 31 October. Foreign reserves stood at USD 45.11 bn at the end of September, up fractionally from USD 44.97 at the end of the previous month.

The Narrative PR Summit, part of the Arab League’s Arab Sustainable Development week, kicked off yesterday, and will run all week.

PSA #1- We’re getting that long weekend after all: The public sector will have Sunday, 10 November off for the Prophet’s birthday, which actually falls on Saturday, according to a cabinet statement. The central bank subsequently declared Sunday to be a bank holiday, the EGX will follow suit. Until it does, we think it safe to assume we’re all going to be off on Sunday. Enterprise will also be taking the day to rest, and we’ll be back in your inboxes as usual on Monday, 11 November.

PSA #2- It’s that time of year where our friends in the US and UK have their body clocks scrambled, and no one’s quite sure why. Clocks fell back one hour in the US yesterday and in the UK a week ago. Egypt did away with the entire concept of daylight savings a few years ago.

Key dates on which to keep your eye:

  • Tomorrow is PMI day, with October’s reading of the IHS / Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index expected at about 6:15am CLT;
  • Sunday, 10 November is inflation day, with the CBE and state statistics agency CAPMAS releasing figures for headline and core inflation;
  • Thursday, 14 November is interest rate day, when the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to seat interest rates. The committee has cut rates at its last two meetings.

Among the international headlines worth knowing this morning:

  • Algerians will have five nominees to choose from when they head to the polls in December to elect a new president after Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s almost 20-year reign, Reuters reports. Protests against the planned elections are still ongoing, as opponents say they will be unfair as long as members of Bouteflika’s regime remain in government.
  • Google has reached an agreement to acquire Fitbit for USD 2.1 bn, seemingly unperturbed by the current regulatory focus on anti-competitive practices and the push to break up Big Tech. The two will join forces to challenge Apple’s rapidly-growing wearable-tech business, the Financial Times reports, but tech insiders are skeptical that the Google-Fitbit merger will give it the chops it needs. See more in Wired and the Verge.
  • McDonald’s has fired its CEOSteve Easterbrook over a consensual relationship with an employee that breached company policy. The WSJ and Bloomberg have more.

Morning must-read, whether you’re a finance nerd or a wannabe entrepreneur: The WSJ has an awesome profile of Jim Simmons, the “wry, chain-smoking teacher” who early in the summer of 1978 at the age of 40 binned a distinguished career in math “try his hand at trading currencies.” Today, he’s built a firm that stands as “the most successful money maker in the history of modern finance,” the Journal writes noting that his flagship fund has generated average annual returns of 66% (before his very hefty fee) since 1988. “No one in the investment world comes close. Warren Buffett, George Soros, Peter Lynch, Steve Cohen and Ray Dalio all fall short.”

Meet the man whose Renaissance Technologies effectively created quants and who is now suddenly getting ink in the Journal, the Financial Times (by former Middle East hand Robin Wigglesworth) and Bloomberg. Our favourite piece is in the journal this time around: The making of the world’s greatest investor.

Why the sudden hoopla about Mr. Simmons? He’s the subject of a new book: The man who solved the market, by Gregory Zuckerman, which is available for preorder (delivering tomorrow to Kindle, if you’re so inclined). Zukerman is also the author of The greatest trade ever, the inside story of hedgie John Paulson’s epic trade on the housing bubble in the United States.

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