Gov’t to impose 5-10% schedule tax on internet ads.

All the local business press could talk about yesterday is how much the CBE’s rate cut on Thursday is a positive move for Egypt’s business climate. We have chapter and verse on what the move means for the state budget and businesses in Speed Round, below.

The global press, meanwhile, has been squarely focused on the G7 summit in Biarritz, France. Unsurprisingly, most leaders have signaled they’re being rubbed the wrong way by US President Donald Trump and his whims, the most recent of which was raising tariffs on Chinese goods. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson “voiced concern on Saturday about creeping protectionism and said those who support tariffs ‘are at risk of incurring the blame for the downturn in the global economy.’ Sitting across from Trump on Sunday, he said: ‘We’re in favor of trade peace on the whole, and dialing it down if we can.’” The Donald didn’t seem to get the message, and told reporters later the G7 leaders “respect the trade war.”

Trump’s only regret about his newest tariffs on China? That he didn’t go higher: Trump told reporters ahead of the summit that he “might as well” have second thoughts on his trade war escalation late last week, only for White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham to say he meant that “he regrets not raising the tariffs higher,” the Washington Post reports. The president later said that he plans on backing down from some of the threats he has made against China, reflecting “Trump’s wildly shifting approach to China, which has had a major effect on the US economy.”

The spillover effect is officially here: Stocks across the Middle East have been dipping on the back of the US-China trade war, signaling that the spillover effect from the spat could lead to a global recession, reports Bloomberg. The EGX30 remained unscathed yesterday, buoyed by positive sentiment from the CBE’s rate cut last week, but indices in Saudia Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman — who rely heavily on trading with China — retreated “on speculation slowing growth will sap demand for oil.”

The yuan hit an 11-year low and Asian stocks tanked in the early hours of this morning, as markets reacted to the latest flare-up in US-China trade tensions. The Hang Sang plunged 3%, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.3%, and the yuan dropped 0.7% to 7.1449 per USD. “The gloves are coming off on both sides” said Mitul Kotecha, senior EM economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “As long as China can ensure that yuan weakness is well controlled i.e. it does not provoke strong outflows, expect to see further depreciation in the currency.” Bloomberg has more.

Competition for Aramco IPO to ramp up this week: Global banks will travel to Saudi Arabia from Tuesday to compete for the chance to work on the long-awaited Aramco IPO, sources tell Bloomberg. Aramco has invited more than 20 US, European and Asian banks to bid for the project, which is expected to be the world’s largest ever IPO. Sources said last week that investment banks Lazard and Moelis have begun preparatory work on the listing, and will help to select the underwriters and identify listing venues. It is understood that officials from the London Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing are all competing to host the listing.

Egypt is not alone in creating a new center of administrative power: Indonesia is also shifting its capital city to a new (still undetermined) location, with current capital Jakarta nevertheless set to remain a commercial and residential hub, the Washington Post reports.

Sudan needs some USD 8 bn in foreign aid and another USD 2 bn in FX deposits over the next two years to cover import bills and help regain international trust in the economy, Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok said, according to Al Arabiya. Hamdok sees these measures as necessary to stymie the decline of the SD following the country’s political upheaval.

Bad news, meat lovers. Our appetite for beef is a driving factor in the fires currently ravaging the Amazon, Reuters reports. What do we have to do with it? Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of beef and Egypt is one of its top markets. In 2018, a record 1.64 mn tonnes of beef were sent to China, Egypt, and the EU, part of a trend that reportedly saw exports grow tenfold in weight and value between 1997 and 2016. This is all bad news for the Amazon, with cattle farming being the main driver of deforestation.

This morning in bizarre news:

Trump has devised a new and innovative method for controlling hurricanes: Nuclear weapons. Axios is out with a stunning report on a White House hurricane briefing, during which the president proposed dropping a nuclear bomb inside a hurricane to prevent it from reaching the US mainland. “I got it. I got it. Why don’t we nuke them? They start forming off the coast of Africa, as they’re moving across the Atlantic, we drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can’t we do that?” the source said, paraphrasing the suggestion. There are no words….

Steve Jobs is alive and well. In Egypt. The Sun has been busy scouring the depths of Reddit, picking up on a thread discussing a picture of an Egyptian Steve Jobs look-a-like.

Energy news led the discussion on the airwaves on an otherwise uneventful night:

The petroleum sector has seen EGP 1 tn in investments, Al Hayah Al Youm’s Khaled Abu Bakr said, citing figures disclosed by Oil Minister Tarek El Molla to Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly in a meeting yesterday (watch, runtime: 02:50). There was no mention of the time frame in which these investments took place, but they were reportedly directed towards refinery and petrochemical as well as development and infrastructure projects.

Also earning some airtime with Abu Bakr was Saturday’s news that Thomas Cook bookings have increased by 30-40% in 2019 in Marsa Alam and Hurghada (watch, runtime: 01:09).

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s attendance at the G7 summit in France and meetings he held with world leaders was covered by Hona Al Asema’s Reham Ibrahim (watch, runtime: 06:28). We have more on this in this morning’s Speed Round.

Last week’s interest rate cut could save Egypt’s coffers EGP 15 bn in debt service: The Finance Ministry could spend EGP 10-15 bn less on interest it owes to investors during 2Q FY2019/2020 after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) last week cut benchmark rates by 150 bps, unnamed government sources tell the local press. The FY2019-2020 state budget forecast debt service payments to rise to EGP 569.1 bn this fiscal year compared to EGP 541 bn in FY2018-2019.

T-bill yields fall in first post-rate cut auction: Average yields on 3-month treasury bills dropped to 16.443% in an auction yesterday, down from 17.904% last week, CBE data showed. Yields on 9-month bills also dropped to 16.378% from 17.834% last week. Mahmoud Naglah, executive director of money markets and fixed income at Al Ahly Financial Investments Management, told the local press that he expects yields on 6-month and 1-year t-bills to fall 50 bps at the next auction. This would put them at around 17.077% and 16.699 respectively, maintaining Egypt’s position as one of the most attractive carry trades in the world.

A step in the right direction for business: The rate cut will have a “positive albeit slight” effect on the country’s exports, Food Export Council head Hani Berzi tells Al Mal, adding that exporters are hoping the central bank will cut rates more aggressively over the next few months to encourage investments and capex spending. Talaat Moustafa Group Chairman Hisham Talaat Moustafa also tells Reuters’ Arabic service that the resumption of easing will be a boon for the real estate sector.

M&A WATCH- Egyptian investment banks are teaming up with international institutions to manage United Bank sale: Local investment banks are forming consortiums with international advisory firms to compete for the quarterback role in the upcoming sale of United Bank, Al Mal reports. EFG Hermes is joining forces with New York-based Evercore, Beltone Financial is teaming up with Rothschild & Co, and CI Capital with Perella Weinberg Partners. Sources say that the sale has attracted substantial interest from foreign institutions, with some such as Evercore considering entering the Egyptian market for the first time.

Background: Central Bank of Egypt Governor Tarek Amer told Bloomberg earlier in July that the CBE will select an advisor for the transaction “in the coming weeks,” and that the selected bank or consortium would determine when the sale would take place. The central bank owns 99.9% of the bank’s shares, having created the institution through the merger of a number of smaller institutions.

EXCLUSIVE- The government is looking to impose a 5-10% schedule tax on social media and internet search ads on top of the 14% VAT as part of anticipated amendments to the VAT Act, government sources told Enterprise. Schedule tax is a type of sales tax imposed on some luxury goods such as cars and perfume in additional to VAT. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait met with Facebook representatives last week for the second time this year to discuss the move. The government is forming a committee tasked with drafting amendments to the VAT law, Maait said last month, adding that the VAT rate will not be changed.

Background: Earlier this year, a senior ministry source told us that the ministry could impose a stamp tax of up to 20% on social media ads. Companies running ads on social media networks would be obliged to pay a 20% tax on revenues made from the ad — the same rate that would be paid for print ad purchases — in addition to 14% VAT. Meanwhile, individuals placing an ad on these sites would pay a reduced 15% stamp tax.

El Sisi meets Merkel, other world leaders during G7 summit: Germany values the strong economic and trade ties with Egypt, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told President Abdel Fattah El Sisi yesterday on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, according to an Ittihadiya statement. El Sisi, who is attending the summit as the chair of the African Union, discussed efforts to fight terrorism and illegal immigration, as well as the latest developments in Libya, with the German chancellor.

It was a busy day for El Sisi, who also met with the leaders of Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa and Burkina Faso to coordinate African positions ahead of the summit, according to a separate Ittihadiya statement. The president also gave a speech, during which he called for a “comprehensive political settlement” to the Libyan crisis, increased involvement of international institutions in upgrading the continent’s digital infrastructure, and further cooperation on gender equality initiatives.

EARNINGS WATCH- Cheesemaker Obour Land recorded net income of EGP 127.3 mn in 1H2019, up 10.49% y-o-y from EGP 115.2 mn during 1H2018, according to its consolidated financial statement (pdf). Revenues for the first half of the year increased to EGP 1.19 bn, up 5.13% y-o-y from 1H2018.

MOVES- Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has appointed the Finance Ministry’s head of the budget division, Mohamed Abdel Fattah, as assistant minister for budget affairs, the local press reported. Abdel Fattah will hold the position for one year. Ali El Sisi will assume the position of budget division head in Abdel Fattah’s place.

Nevine El-Messeery will officially leave her position as CEO of Ahli United Bank (AUB) next month, banking sources told Masrawy. El-Messeery previously served as CIB’s general manager of corporate banking.

Planning Minister Hala El Said has issued a decision to appoint Moshira Karara as her assistant for economic affairs, the Planning Ministry said in a statement. Karara will hold the position for one year.

Governments all over the world lack the necessary understanding to address and effectively plan for global catastrophe, says a recently published report (pdf) by the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. This is as terrifying as it sounds, because global interconnectivity, increased population densities, and the advent of ever-more sophisticated discoveries — ranging from AI to advanced biotechnologies or nuclear weapons — could compound the potential impact of catastrophes we may not be fully able to control. And that’s before we even get into the risks we may not have anticipated yet.

Why are governments underprepared and what can be done about it? The problem is essentially a disconnect between science and policy, the report says. Policy decisions are often driven by short-term perceptions of what’s important, with policymakers unlikely to make global risk mitigation a priority because it doesn’t help them win elections. Long-term planning is seen as important when it comes to monetary policy or infrastructure, but not for natural hazards, climate change or nuclear war. The report recommends that governments hire more scientists and quality internal teams to research risk, strengthen the links between science and policy (so that the former informs the latter), finance independent academic research on catastrophic risk, and increase government resources to attract scientific and technological expertise.

Does the internet dream of itself? Werner Herzog’s 2016 documentary Lo and Behold: Reveries of the Connected World (watch, runtime: 01:38:03) is a meditative exploration of the internet’s transformative powers, both the good and the bad. Beginning with the birth of the web in 1969, the documentary weaves its way through 10 chapters covering everything from artificial intelligence and space exploration to the toxic world of online trolling and the tragedies of internet addiction. The format makes for a nonlinear experience and allows Herzog to cover a lot of ground, albeit in not quite as much detail as some might like. Nonetheless, Reveries is cerebral filmmaking, provoking wonderment and anxiety in equal measure.

The Agriculture Ministry has asked the government to look into proposals submitted by the Farmers’ Syndicate to control sugar imports, ministry sources told the local press. Farmers are urging the government to protect the local market by either imposing protectionist tariffs on sugar or placing limits on quantities of imported sugar. Local producers are coming under pressure in light of an increase in domestic production and a drop in global prices. Egypt produced a record 2.48 mn tonnes of sugar crop this season, marking an increase of some 320,500 tonnes y-o-y, Agriculture Minister Ezz El-Din Abu Steit said last month.

Private companies refused to participate in the first cotton auction held under a new mechanism yesterday, complaining that the opening price of EGP 2.1k per qintar was too high, the Public Enterprises Ministry said in a statement picked up by the local press. The new public auction system is being applied on a trial basis in Fayoum and Beni Suef, and could be rolled out to other governorates for the 2020/2021 harvest if it proves successful. The cotton was awarded to El Wady for Trading and Cotton Ginning, which paid 70% to the farmers up front and promised to pay the rest in the coming week.

East Port Said Development Company has signed a contract with a Polish investor to operate its new facility, which is slated to begin production early next year, General Manager Ahmed Al Mufti said. The factory will produce steel products and tools that are used in sanitation projects. The company is also working to issue licenses to German and Polish investors who have agreed to invest EUR 70 mn in two industrial projects.

Cleopatra Hospitals Group (CHG) signed yesterday a joint venture agreement with Al Taaleem Management Services to renovate and operate Al Nahda Hospital in Beni Suef, according to an emailed statement (pdf). The JV will be 90% owned by CHG and the remaining 10% by Al Taaleem — the owner and operator of Nahda University in Beni Suef. CHG is expected to invest EGP 360 mn in renovating the hospital, which will feature five operating theaters and 198 beds once completed. The first phase of operations is expected to begin in 4Q2020.

Emaar Misr has awarded Dubai-based construction company Arabtec a EGP 1.8 bn contract to build two residential areas in Emaar’s Uptown Cairo project, Emaar said in a bourse filing (pdf).

Investors are petitioning the Central Bank of Egypt to extend its tourism rescue initiative for investors and businesses operating in the sector for another two years to allow for the renovation of existing tourism facilities and the completion of those currently under construction, Al Shorouk reported. The CBE initiative, which allows investors and businesses in the tourism sector to restructure their debts, was extended for a year in December 2018.

The National Authority for Tunnels awarded a Mitsubishi-Orascom consortium the contract to construct the railway and depot, and to set up the railway system for the first phase of Cairo Metro Line 4, according to the authority (pdf). The agreement was worth a combined EGP 3.8 bn, EUR 397.3 mn, and JPY 10.1 mn. This tender replaces the expired agreement with Hitachi-Sojitz, who also came up with an offer alongside Marubeni, and Toyo-Mitsui, according to Egypt Transport Infrastructure Monitor.

The Transport Ministry is negotiating with an unnamed Kuwaiti investor to contribute to the financing of a 700 km railway between Abu Tartour and Safaga, according to Al Mal. A German consultancy firm is separately evaluating four offers from Orascom, Swedish Electric, Samcrete, and Qalaa to construct the railway.

Real estate developer Marakez has agreed a EGP 1.5 bn syndicated loan with five banks to build a mall in Katameya, banking officials told Al Shorouk. Banque Misr was the lead arranger of the loan, with Banque du Caire, CIB, the Arab African International Bank, and Misr Iran Development Bank also contributing.

Banque du Caire (BdC) is in talks with an unnamed Arab financing institution to increase a USD 50 mn loan the bank received in February to USD 100 mn, BdC Chairman Tarek Fayed tells Al Shorouk. Fayed said back in February that the bank secured a USD 30 mn loan from an unnamed Arab institution. It remains unclear whether it is the same institution.

The government aims to reduce the poverty rate to 28% this fiscal year, down from 32.5% in 2017-2018, sources close to the matter told the local press. The government could invest up to EGP 7 bn in housing, education and health projects in impoverished Upper Egypt governorates in response to the rising levels of poverty. Official figures showed last month that the poverty rate shot up 5% from 27.8% in FY2017/2018.

Egypt’s winning streak at the 12th African Games continued yesterday after both the men’s and women’s table tennis teams defeated Nigeria to take home the gold. Egypt’s table tennis team has now secured tickets for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games through this double win, the Eagle Online reports.

On-demand home healthcare service platform Hospitalia will be competing at seed-stage startup competition Seedstars Summit in Switzerland, after winning the Cairo round of the global competition, Startup MGZN reports. Hospitalia could land USD 500k in equity investments and other awards at the Swiss competition. RafiQ, a virtual assistant Android app tailored for Arabic users speaking different dialects, and Hovo, an app for ordering trucks, came in second and third place in the Cairo round.

House Rep. Amal Rizk-Allah is calling on the Trade Ministry to ban imports of e-cigarettes in Egypt on the grounds that they are a health hazard, according to Al Masry Al Youm. Rizk-Allah noted the World Health Organization has said e-cigarettes are no less harmful than normal cigarettes.