Damietta liquefaction plant could reopen as arbitration case said to have been dropped

The news is so slow this morning, it practically hurts. But what news there is … is big, including

• Apparent reconciliation between the state and high-profile foreign investors Union Fenosa Gas (in which Eni is a major shareholder) and Uber
• A threat from a third foreign investor to file for international arbitration
• And reported US interest in an acquisition in the nation’s banking sector.

New Zealand Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor is in town this week to talk trade with Trade Minister Amr Nassar and Agriculture Minister Ezzedin Abu Steit, the government said in a statement.

Speaking of agricultural exports:

^^ Investors love this cow. Or, more to the point, the prospect of making a return investing in the farmland on which it grazes. Here’s why it matters:

There is at least USD 2 tn in ‘dry powder’ committed to private capital funds at the moment as long-term international institutional investors (think: pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds) seek higher returns, Robin Wigglesworth writes for the Financial Times, citing data from Preqin. The newfound popularity of the asset class (it’s just a wee bit broader than an asset class, spanning farmland and infrastructure to venture capital, direct lending and private equity) “raises a host of issues with murky implications for investors, private markets and the broader financial system,” the former Mideast correspondent writes.

But private markets are the new public markets… Regular readers know how much we enjoy Bloomberg’s Matt Levine, who has long argued that “the private markets are now where the money is. If you are a company that is raising money, the odds are that you are doing it privately. If you are a company that is doing a share buyback, on the other hand, the odds are that you are a public company. That sorting is not absolute, but it is a useful guide: You stay private to raise money and build your business and grow; you go public to allow your investors to cash out.”

In miscellany worth knowing this morning:

Big banks are quietly currying favor with Qatar as the Saudi-led blockade rumbles on and options promised by Riyadh fail to materialize, Bloomberg writes. The news comes at the same time as the Qatar Financial Center is looking to attract media, fintech and general tech businesses as well as sports services providers.

Russia has arrested the American founder of a private-equity firm, alleging he siphoned off more than USD 37 mn from a bank in which his firm, Baring Vostok Capital Partners, has a controlling stake. The PE guy counters that he has been “embroiled in a dispute with other shareholders [in the bank] over plans to recapitalize it,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Both the UK and Canada have thrown Huawei a lifeline. British intelligence has decided it is “possible to mitigate the risk from using Huawei equipment in 5G networks,” the Financial Times reports, while Canada could face a lawsuit from the Chinese giant if it closes the door to sales of 5G technology, CBC says.

To entertain yourself on your morning commute:

Is the way you speak a tell about where you’re from? Two tools from the New York Times help you create personal dialect maps — tell ‘em how youse say “y’all” and they’ll tell you where you’re likely from. They’re fun (and, in at least two cases, eerily accurate) with which to play even if you’re not from the United States / Ireland / Britain:

• For Americans: How y’all, youse and you guys talk
• For the British and the Irish: The British-Irish dialect quiz

Because it is never too early to pine for a tech toy or make your Christmas wish list:

• Stranger Things-themed games. Including a D&D starter set, Back to the 80s Trivial Pursuit and a handheld arcade game. Thank you, Buzzfeed.
• Everything MacRumors expects from Apple in 2019 and beyond, particularly relevant as the tech giant seems set to host an event on 25 March, at which it’s expected to unveil a streaming video service.

The Saturday terrorist attack in North Sinai that left 15 members of the armed forces dead dominated the talking heads’ agendas last night. Al Hayah Al Youm’s Khaled Abu Bakr took the chance to salute the Armed Forces (watch, runtime: 03:04), while Masaa DMC’s Eman El Hosary took note of the funerals for the deceased (watch, runtime: 02:51) and El Hekaya’s Amr Adib expressed his condolences (watch, runtime: 03:44).

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meetings on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference also came up on Al Hayah Al Youm, where Khaled Abu Bakr was full of praise for the president’s focus on bringing in investments (watch, runtime: 03:07). Amr Adib also said much of the same (watch, runtime: 05:58).

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly met yesterday with a delegation from the American Jewish Congress, Al Hayah Al Youm noted (watch, runtime: 04:13).

Damietta LNG plant to reopen in April after six-year hiatus: TheDamietta liquefaction plant will reopen in April and export around 550 mn cfd of natural gas following a six-year hiatus, an oil ministry source told the domestic press. The potential resumption of exports comes as plant operator Union Fenosa Gas (UGS), a JV between Union Fenosa and Eni, has reportedly agreed to drop a USD 2 bn arbitration claim lodged after gas to the facility was cut off in 2012. State-owned gas company ُEGAS will instead compensate UGS for its losses through profits derived from its 10% ownership of the facility. Eni is now waiting for approval from the Oil Ministry to connect the Damietta plant to the Zohr gas treatment plant. The liquefaction facility, one of two in Egypt, is an anchor component of the Sisi administration’s positioning of Egypt as the premier energy hub in the eastern Mediterranean.

Petroceltic to seek international arbitration against EGPC: UK energy company Petroceltic is filing for international arbitration to recover back-due payments it claims it is owed by the state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), Petroceltic said in a statement on its website. “We do not threaten international arbitration lightly, but equally we are at the end of our patience with EGPC: the current situation is totally unacceptable,” Chairman Angelo Moskov said in the statement.

Oil Ministry calls for talks: The ministry said that Petroceltic wanted to give up its concessions and that it has paid the company USD 6 mn in December but the company didn’t meet its obligations in securing the funding needed for operations until the concession are withdrawn, the ministry said in a statement (pdf). The ministry called for talks to settle this dispute in an amicable manner.

M&A WATCH- US institution reportedly makes offer for United Bank: A US institution has made an offer to acquire the United Bank and is currently doing due diligence on the transaction, according to a report in Amwal Al Ghad that cites remarks attributed to Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer. The Central Bank, which owns about 99.9% of the bank’s shares after creating it through the merger of a number of smaller institutions, announced in 2017 its intention to sell to a strategic investor.

IPO WATCH- Eastern Co stake sale could proceed at low end of target range: The government is considering going ahead with the sale of a 4.5% stake in publicly traded Eastern Company when its share price hits EGP 16.83, Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik reportedly told Al Mal. A ministerial decree had previously set a target price of EGP 18.70 +/-10%, Tawfik added. The company’s share price stood at EGP 16.24 at the close of yesterday’s session. Cigarette-maker Eastern Company is piloting the first phase of the state privatization program, which was delayed last year amid a broader sell-off of emerging market assets.

Naguib ❤️ Saudi Arabia, after all: Celebrity businessman Naguib Sawiris told Arabiya TV yesterday that his decision to not invest in Saudi Arabia isn’t an indefinite thing. Instead, he said, he’s waiting for the enactment of reforms to the kingdom’s investment laws and arbitration setup before he looks at opportunities there. Sawiris made the remarks after telling CNBC last week that he wouldn’t invest in Saudi Arabia because, “why would I go somewhere where I am not convinced there is a rule of law and order. And that there is real democracy, and that people are free.” He also urged the oil-rich kingdom to “come straight on human rights.” Sawiris told Arabiya that he loves Saudi Arabia has many Saudi friends.

EXCLUSIVE- Egypt could sign hedging contracts for FY2019-20 in two weeks’ time: The government could sign in as little as two weeks’ time contracts to hedge against the price volatility of fuel, imported wheat and cooking oil, a senior government official told Enterprise. The contracts begin in FY2019-20 to help ensure Egypt meets its budget deficit target in the coming financial year. The Finance Ministry has received 20 offers from global and GCC-based institutions, the official said.

Background: We noted earlier this month that the government was considering hedging against the prices of strategic imports, including wheat and petroleum, starting from July. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said a day later at a press conference that the mechanism has in fact been put in place, but that a time frame had not yet been decided. Last December, the government pulled back from two fuel hedging contracts as crude prices turned lower than expected. The ministry at the time was also working to expand its hedging strategy to include wheat and other commodities.

EXCLUSIVE- More on tax exemptions to encourage small businesses to go legit: The government is mulling exempting small and medium enterprises from up to 85% of their (already low) tax burden for a period of three years in an attempt to incentivize businesses in the informal economy to go legit under the proposed SMEs Act, a senior government official tells Enterprise. According to the source, the exemptions would be applied through a tier system according to each business’ revenues:

• Businesses with annual revenues of up to EGP 250k would be subject to a flat annual tax rate of EGP 2,000. These companies would enjoy an exemption from 85% of that sum for a period of three years.
• Companies with annual revenues of EGP 251-500k would be subject to an annual flat tax EGP 5,000 and would be eligible for a 47% tax exemption, also for three years.
• Businesses with revenues of 500k to EGP 1 mn would be subject to a flat tax of EGP 10k per annum and would be eligible for a 7.5% tax break in the first three years.

Background: Incorporating the informal economy is part of the government’s new revenue strategy, which would offer incentives, including VAT discounts and access to subsidized finance to those who register their businesses and pay taxes, a source told us earlier this month. The government does not have an accurate figure of the size of the informal economy, but the source said unofficial data indicates it is at least as large as the official economy.

Yields plunge at government t-bill auction: Average yields on three-month and nine-month t-bills fell at the Central Bank’s auction yesterday to 17.453% and 17.686%, respectively, from 18.202% and 18.543% at the last auction, central bank data shows. That said: The central bank sold only EGP 102.95 mn worth of three-month notes compared to a target of EGP 8.5 bn as investors demanded yields as high as 18.452%. It also sold EGP 9.3 bn worth of nine-month securities, exceeding the EGP 8.5 bn target. The auction was the first after the central bank’s surprise interest rates cut last week.

REGULATION WATCH- GAFI amends governance regs for subsidiaries of state-owned companies: The General Authority for Investments (GAFI) has amended corporate governance regulations for companies whose shareholders include a state-owned companies holding a minimum stake of 25%, Al Mal reports. The new guidelines mandate that these companies hire an auditor other than CAPMAS (as is the case for state-owned companies). The guidelines also state that these companies will not be classified as state-owned companies (or public sector companies). The companies is part of a series of reforms to state-owned companies currently being enacted ahead of the state privatization program. These include amendments to the Public Enterprises Act that would allow private-sector companies to own stakes of just under 50% in the ministry’s holding companies.

INVESTMENT WATCH- SODIC aims to invest about EGP 5.17 bn in 2019, the upmarket real estate developer said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). SODIC also expects to make EGP 7.20 bn in customer contracts and deliver 1,151 units worth about EGP 5.15 bn in 2019.

Shuaa Securities Egypt is expanding its research and analytics task force to provide its clients with “more in-depth analysis of market intelligence and trends,” according to an emailed statement (pdf). “Shuaa Securities – Egypt and Shuaa Capital psc will be publishing a series of company- and sector- specific research during 2019, aimed at offering our discerning clientele a 360-degree approach to investments. Indeed, expanding research coverage is key to Shuaa’s brokerage business to complement its offerings in the MENA region,” the firm said.

Late journalism icon Mohamed Hassanein Heikal’s entire personal library will be transferred to Bibliotheca Alexandrina under an agreement Heikal’s widow signed yesterday, Ahram Online reports. “Under the agreement, Heikal’s books, personal papers and belongings, in addition to his desk, will be kept at the Bibliotheca on public display.” Heikal, a veteran journalist and commentator who passed away in 2016, had been former President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s advisor and ghostwriter and became a source of advice and wisdom to subsequent rulers and observers of Egypt.

Antitrust ruling: The Cairo Economic Court is due to deliver a decision on an appeal by pharma distributors of an antitrust fine on Tuesday.

The Egyptian data satellite Egypt Sat A will be launched on 21 February, local press reported. The satellite manufactured in Russia in cooperation with Egypt will be launched from Russian spaceport Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The EGP 500 mn first section of the fourth phase of Cairo Metro Line 3 will open by the end of this week, Akhbar El Yom reports.

Blockchain-focused talk: The UN Technology Innovation Lab Egypt, Egypt Technology Innovation & Entrepreneurship Center, UNDP, and IBM Egypt are hosting on Tuesday, 26 February a talk to initiate the uninitiated on blockchain and its uses outside of cryptocurrencies. You can find more details and register for the event here.

100 leaders of the biggest Saudi companies are expected to attend a Cairo meeting of the Saudi Egyptian Business Council on 23 February, according to the domestic press. The meeting is expected to discuss ways to further cooperation in infrastructure and agriculture projects as well as how to make the best of Egypt’s one year presidency of the African Union.

A Russian delegation will visit Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada airports in the second half of February to run a final security sweep ahead of a decision on whether to allow the resumption of direct flights, AMAY reports.

The gov’t will begin rolling out its debt control strategy next month, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Al Mal. The four-year strategy aims to bring down Egypt’s public debt to 80-85% of GDP by the end of FY2021-22. Maait had previously said the strategy would be presented to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in March.

Execs from 50 Japanese companies will be in Cairo in March to discuss potential investment opportunities, Youm7 reports.

Expect draft law to regulate real estate developers in two months: The final draft of proposed legislation which will regulate real estate development should be ready in two months’ time, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly instructed relevant officials. The proposed legislation is pending approval from the House of Representatives’ Housing Committee.

Egypt has been tapped to host the 2020 Sustainable Blue Economy water security conference, according to a report in the domestic press.

Friday saw the Giza pyramids complex converted to a marathon venue for a “race through history” in an event organized by The TriFactory. The marathon brought together professional and amateur runners in an effort to promote sports tourism, reports Reuters.

You know it’s a slow news morning for Egypt when this is the biggest story we can come up with: Renaissance Capital chief economist Charlie Robertson’s note on Egypt, “allegedly sent from the back of a taxi stuck in nose-to-tail traffic in Cairo,” gets a nod from the WSJ’s this week on the frontiers column. Why does Robertson like Egypt despite the noise presented by the constitutional change process? “Robust economic growth—supported by investment—the potential for rapid industrialization, a relatively stable currency, responsible monetary policies and a determination to maintain fiscal discipline. ‘It’s still a very good story,’ he added.”

Other headlines worth noting in brief include:

• The Telegraph likens Egypt’s new administrative capital to Baghdad’s Green Zone.
• Egypt’s emergence as the region’s energy hub gets ink from analyst Cyril Widdershoven writing for Oil Price.
• New York’s Met museum has agreed to return an Egyptian artifact from the 1st Century BC, after prosecutors showed evidence that it had been looted in 2011, the New York Times reports.
• BBC spent a day with Tayeb, a 17-year-old in Luxor as part of their series “Being 17.”
• An Egyptian blogger’s infatuation with physics turns him into a TV sensation, Ahmed El Ghandour, the personality behind El Daheeh, tells the BBC

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meetings with the representatives of German companies on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference yesterday is the top headline in Egypt’s three main state-owned dailies this morning (Al Ahram | Al Akhbar | Al Gomhuria).

Could a partnership between Shell and Alphabet be the key to commercializing airborne turbine technology? Shell’s minority investment of an undisclosed sum in Makani Power, an experimental wind power project acquired by Google parent company Alphabet six years ago, is part of a comprehensive diversification strategy for the oil and gas giant, according to the FT. Makani is working to develop electricity-generating kites, and has a prototype that is fixed to land, floating some 1,000 ft above the ground. Now it will be able to use Shell’s expertise in offshore developments to set up kites in water more than 50 meters deep, where the winds are stronger.

Unanswered questions: Despite the financial backing, success is by no means assured. Harvesting power from airborne wind turbines has long been a goal of the sector, but many promising initiatives have generated more tech excitement than they have sustainable revenue or power. Wind energy systems researcher Antonello Cherubini sounds a warning note against investing too much hope in Makani. Airborne turbines require considerable time and money to develop, a major challenge to making the technology commercially-viable. “I wish that this could make a difference, but there is no reason to think that this is the one,” he said.

Money is power: An angel investor’s experience. Joanne Wilson has invested in over 120 companies over the past 12 years, the overwhelming majority of which were founded by women. In this WSJ podcast (listen, runtime: 21:14), she dispenses advice based on her own experience as an angel investor, a mentor of entrepreneurs and an ambitious professional striving for success on fair terms. For women: Be true to yourselves and be as smart and aggressive as any man would be. For angel investors: Understand the risks and returns. For employers: a new hire’s skill set is arguably more important than whether they have prior industry experience. And for anyone trying to change the balance of the workforce: Support women and support minorities, because your investments today will affect the leaders of tomorrow — “you can’t be it if you can’t see it.”

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the main source of instability in the Middle East, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi declared on Saturday, according to Haaretz. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he reiterated Egypt’s support for a two-state solution with pre-1967 borders and a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. He also met the former head of Israel’s military intelligence.

El Sisi also met ThyssenKrupp CEO Guido Kerkhoff during conference yesterday.The president discussed Thyssenkrupp’s construction of a fertilizer factory in Ain Sokhna. He also talked with Daimler Vice Chairman Eckart von Clyde about the return of Mercedes-Benz to assemble cars in Egypt.

Egypt is finalizing the procedures needed to begin the electricity linkage project with Cyprus, the Electricity Ministry said in a statement. The project will open the door for electricity linkage between Egypt and Europe and using new renewable energy capacity to help Egypt serve as an energy hub in the region. The two countries are set to build a USD 1.5 bn subsea power cable to link Egypt’s electricity grid with Cyprus as part of a USD 4 bn drive to connect Egypt’s grid to countries in Africa and in Europe, including Greece.

The Housing Ministry is building 35 water desalination plants with a total capacity of 1.3 mcm/d, local press reported. Total water desalination capacity is planned to reach 1.7 mcm/d by 2020 or about 6.6% of Egypt’s drinking water production capacity.

Major state-owned banks followed the CBE’s lead by cutting interest rates on their changing-yield certificates of deposit (CDs) but left interest on their platinum CDs unchanged, Mubasher news services reported. National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr cut interest to 16% from 17% on CDs with changing yields linked to the corridor rate and left yields on platinum CDs unchanged at 15.25%. Banque du Caire will meet this week to decide on its rates but will most likely follow suit with a cut, Chairman Tarek Fayed said.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has appointed the board of directors of the newly-founded Supreme Authority for Upper Egypt Development, according to a Cabinet statement. The BoD includes representatives from the military production, local development, finance, planning, irrigation and investment ministries, as well as reps from the General Intelligence Agency, the Federation of Egyptian Industries, and the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce.

Egypt is establishing a civil services council amid efforts to improve the sector, Al Mal reports. The council, which will be supervised by the head of the Central Agency for Organization & Administration (CAOA), Saleh El-Sheikh, will evaluate draft laws and regulations related to the civil service in order to improve public services.

Preparations to release Egyptian photojournalist Mahmoud Abu Zeid “Shawkan” have been made after five years in prison, according to Ahram Online. Shawkan was arrested along with 214 others back in 2013 for their alleged involvement in an Ikhwan sit-in. The story received international coverage last year as Abu Zeid’s release was delayed despite serving his full sentence.

Foreign narcotics smugglers busted: A German woman and a Turkish man have been arrested on suspicion of smuggling 11 kg of narcotics into Egypt, Ahram Online reports. A prosecutor ordered that they be detained for four days for investigation. The Madbouly Cabinet recently approved the introduction of the death penalty for people caught trafficking narcotics.