Gov’t aborts automotive directive

Bloomberg and the Financial Times think we’re looking at a busy week ahead before the August news slowdown — the Fed meets on interest rates on Wednesday, the Bank of England follows suit on Thursday, and companies ranging from Apple to Caterpillar report their earnings from today through Friday. But it feels as if Egypt is ahead of the global curve for once: It’s an achingly slow news day from where we sit here in Cairo.

(Also here at home, the central bank’s monetary policy committee doesn’t meet to review interest rates until 16 August. Most watchers see rates being left on hold.)

Further down the road: French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Egypt in November or December, the head of the Egyptian-French Business Council tells Amwal Al Ghad. Macron will be accompanied by a business delegation. Separately, a group of French execs are reportedly in talks with the Port of Alexandria over a proposed French industrial zone in Alexandria.

Is Pakistan taking a leaf out of Egypt’s IMF playbook? Pakistan could ask for a USD 12 bn bailout package from the IMF “to resolve the country’s escalating foreign reserves crisis,” the Financial Times reports. Islamabad is no novice when it comes to IMF bailouts — since the late 1980s, the IMF has provided Pakistan with a total of 12 packages, the most recent of which was a USD 5.3 bn loan in 2013. What remains to be seen is how Imran Khan, the cricket star who seems set to become Pakistan’s next prime minister, will manage to balance the ambitious promises he made on the campaign trail and the IMF’s likely demands that public spending be slashed. Analysts “believe a return to the IMF is inevitable, and will come with damaging consequences for short-term economic growth and Mr Khan’s own political reputation.”

This brings us to one of the biggest risks facing investors this year: How will elections play out on the policy front? With some 24 elections happening in emerging markets this year alone, the trajectory of economic policies is in open question. Nothing appears to underscore the risk more than Mexico and Turkey, where voters elected (or re-elected, in Turkey) nationalist candidates, writes senior portfolio manager Sean Newman for the Invesco blog. Yet there is hope in other places, such as Columbia and Chile, where anti-establishment candidates have been defeated.

Meanwhile, Oman is also looking to raise debt — albeit for different purposes than Pakistan. The sultanate plans to raise USD 1.2 bn through a loan or bond, a finance ministry official said, according to Bloomberg. The funding would be funneled into developing infrastructure at the country’s Duqm Special Economic Zone. “The financing would help the government diversify its funding sources, extend its debt maturity profile and reduce costs,” the official says.

It appears that Sweden is where Skynet first took over finance: Sweden’s Nordea Bank became the only big bank in Sweden to cut costs in 2Q2018 as it began implementing the widest replacement of bankers by automatons in the whole sector, writes Bloomberg’s Niklas Magnusson. The bank’s CEO, Casper von Koskull, said Nordea plans to cut 6k jobs and automate functions in everything from asset management to answering calls from retail clients. Koskull believes that industry might shed half of its current human workforce within a decade. The move saw total costs drop 11% y-o-y in 2Q2018 as staff numbers fell 8% to 29,300. Swedish banks have begun to take notice with SEB CEO Johan Torgeby now saying that “whatever can be automated will be automated.”

Also worth a read if you’re relaxing on the beach this morning before the hordes descend — or looking for something to fill the ride back home after work:

We have a hard time getting enough of emerging markets champion Mark Mobius, who had a long chat with the Financial Times on a recent trip to London. The best bit: His explanation of why his ESG-themed fund will look at even coal companies as investment targets.

How will Goldman’s new boss remake the bulge bracket icon? David Solomon, the “disarmingly earnest” amateur DJ who takes over as CEO and chairman of Goldman Sachs in October, has already sent plenty of signals about how he could steer the ship toward serving “far more ordinary consumers and corporations,” CNBC argues.

A winner on headline alone: A fake Picasso, private investigators and fart spray: Inside the nasty divorce of bond bn’aire Bill Gross.

Parents need to be willing to cut off adult children financially if they’re going to shore up their own retirement nesteggs, argues author Maddy Dychtwald in a piece for the the Wall Street Journal.

Finally: Our friends at AmCham have cancelled a luncheon with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait that was scheduled to take place today, citing a high level official commitment by the minister.

The second day of the National Youth Conference — which we cover in today’s Speed Round, below — continued to capture the attention of the talking heads.

Education reforms will come to fruition next year: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s decision to make 2019 the ‘year of education’ reflects the state’s intention to focus its spending on an overhaul of the country’s education system next year, Higher Education Minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told Masaa DMC’s Eman Al Hosary. Abdel Ghaffar noted that his ministry has already begun implementing a new strategy to encourage scientific research (watch, runtime: 8:32).

Education Ministry spokesman Ahmed Khairy gave Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer the lowdown on the new national education system and the government’s plans to overhaul the sector (watch, runtime: 2:29). Amer also briefly touched on the main highlights of El Sisi’s speech during the forum (watch, runtime: 6:11).

Population control is a crucial feature of reforming religious discourse: Al Azhar scholar Khaled El Gendy hailed El Sisi’s calls to rein in the country’s population boom, saying that misinterpretations of religious teachings have fuelled population growth. The drive to reform religious discourse will help to remedy the issue, El Gendy said on Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 21:48).

Hona Al Asema fill-in host Dina Zahra spent the majority of her evening offering color commentary on other segments of El Sisi’s speech. She paid particular attention to the president’s comments on the country’s railway and metro services, which she went out of her way to say are of subpar quality despite the increases in metro ticket prices (watch, runtime: 43:04).

Rep. Saeed Taeema ranted about the state of the country’s railways and metro. Egged on by a train derailment yesterday, Taeema lambasted the lack of accountability for every railway accident in Egypt that prevents the core issues behind these accidents from getting resolved (watch, runtime: 7:07).

PSA- Stay clear from meds containing valsartan, says Health Ministry: The Health Ministry issued a warning against blood pressure meds containing valsartan after impurities were detected in some packs. Doctors and medical experts weighed in on the issue on Hona Al Asema (watch, runtime: 23:22). The issue appears to be a global one.

Al Hayah fi Masr was off the air last night.

EXCLUSIVE- Gov’t plans to scrap automotive directive, looks to replace it with special economic zones: The Madbouly Cabinet has decided to scrap the automotive directive — the long awaited government strategy to grow the domestic auto industry by granting local assemblers incentives to move further up the value chain to manufacturing.

Background: The Automotive Directive had been in the works for over three years now thanks to wrangling in the House of Representatives and opposition by auto importers. The package of incentives was designed to allow local assemblers, who industry backers argue support tens of thousands of skilled direct and indirect jobs, to better compete with European Union, Moroccan and Turkish imports that receive customs breaks here in Egypt. That strategy has been sharply opposed by our EU trade partners — particularly Germany, whose chancellor, Angela Merkel, is said to have addressed the issue directly with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

The alternative? The government is looking to replace the automotive directive with a policy of setting up special auto industry freezones that would offer a range of as-yet unspecified tax and customs breaks to assemblers, a senior government source with direct knowledge of the move told Enterprise. Among the incentives would tax and customs exemptions for capital goods imported for local assembly, the source said. Our source noted that the ministries of trade and industry, finance, and investment are currently working on studies that would back the new policy, but did not say when the proposal might be officially unveiled. The policy will likely emulate others adopted by regional players including Morocco and South Africa.

Higher local content requirements part of the proposal? Manufacturers looking to join the proposed program would be required to source 60% of their components here at home, the source said. That’s a significantly higher rate than the 46% domestic component requirement mandated by former Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil in April to push forward the transition towards the automotive directive.

The source noted that the government plans to pitch the new policy to foreign auto companies that sell cars here in the hope of spurring foreign direct investment in the sector. A number of auto companies are on record as saying they were awaiting the automotive directive before committing to new assembly lines. These include Toyota and China’s GAC Motor. Others including Fiat and Volkswagen were said to be exploring manufacturing opportunities in Egypt but were awaiting clarity from the government on its auto industry policy.

This significant change in direction by the government comes as Egypt has 154 days before 1 January — that’s when customs on EU manufactured cars fall to zero, a prospect that could see top assemblers close down assembly lines.

IPO WATCH- Misr Life Insurance plans to list on the EGX in 1Q2019: It looks like state owned Misr Life Insurance could be part of the second wave of the state privatization program, according to remarks attributed to company chairman Ahmed Abdel Aziz. He said the company is working on plans that will see it complete a valuation study and hire advisors in time to offer 15-30% of the company’s sharesin 1Q2019. Misr Life Insurance’s EGM had recently voted to approve the IPO, he tells Amwal Al Ghad.

This brings the number of companies in the state privatization program to 24: Misr Life Insurance had not been named among the 23 companies slated to be part of the state privatization program when the list was announced back in March. Its parent company, Misr Insurance Holding, is on the list and its general assembly former voted in favor of listing both companies back in May in a move sanctioned by then-Public Enterprises Minister Khaled Badawy.

Egypt is expected to receive the fifth tranche of its USD 12 bn extended fund facility from the IMF in early 2019, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Al Mal yesterday. An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit in November to conduct a fourth review of the economic reform agenda ahead of disbursing the tranche. Egypt received the fourth USD 2 bn loan tranche earlier this month after passing the third review with flying colors and to much praise from the IMF’s executive board. The board had said that reform has helped accelerate growth and curb inflation and unemployment levels, but warned that more fiscal tightening was in order, particularly as the government continues to phase out fuel and power subsidies.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has already extended some EUR 600 mn of the USD 1.4 bn in financing it has earmarked for Egypt in 2018, Managing Director for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Janet Heckman said yesterday. (We believe the newspaper in question is off on its choice of currency for the 1.4 bn figure, but it is indeed given in the story in USD and not EUR.) The EBRD has already disbursed EUR 600 mn in financing to Egypt in the first six months of 2018 to support major projects, according to Heckman. The EBRD has a current project portfolio of EUR 3.14 bn in 79 active portfolio projects, according to the bank’s website.

Sarie-Eldin, PwC, Baker Mckenzie selected to advise cabinet on regulations governing EGP 200 bn sovereign wealth fund: The Madbouly Cabinet has entered into an agreement with a consortium of firms including Sarie-Eldin & Partners, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Baker McKenzie to advise on the establishment of the framework and governing structure of Egypt’s EGP 200 bn sovereign wealth fund, Planning Minister Hala El Saeed told Al Mal yesterday. The group, which should complete its work within the next few weeks, is expected to help set the ground rules that will govern investment choices as well decisions such as capital increases and the establishment of sub-funds, to name a few. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had previously said that the fund’s board of directors would be selected “within days.” The House of Representatives had signed off on legislation establishing the fund earlier this month, giving it complete financial independence and relieving it from paying taxes on transactions with subsidiaries and affiliates, in addition to clarifying what the state would consider an under-utilized asset.

NUCA, OHC resolve another outstanding real estate dispute: The New and Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) reportedly reached an agreement with Orascom Housing Communities (OHC) to settle their dispute over 350 feddans belonging to the Ashgar City project in 6 October, company sources tells Al Shorouk. OHC will be allowed to complete construction work on the residential development in partnership with Faisal Islamic Bank, in exchange for a levy that will be determined by a NUCA committee, they add. The Madbouly Cabinet had recently signed off on a settlement agreement between NUCA and OHC over disputed development of 1,380 feddans in the Haram City affordable housing project. OHC is majority owned by Orascom Development Holding Chairman Samih Sawiris.

El Sisi declares 2019 the “Year of Education”: 2019 will be Egypt’s “year of education,” President Abdel Fattah El Sisi declared during the second day of this month’s youth conference at Cairo University. Human development is a key pillar of the government’s vision, the president said, so his administration’s human development strategy will not only focus on education, but will include health, culture and sports policies, El Sisi said during his speech. His remarks come a day after Education Minister Tarek Shawki presented details on Egypt’s new K-12 education reform plan, which will aims to end rote memorization, expand the use of foreign languages and technology, and develop a GPA system not fully weighted to final exams. El Sisi announced a number of other decisions at the conference including:

• Allocating 20% of all government scholarship funding for those studying to become teachers;
• Establishing a government center to educate future teachers;
• Establishing government-funded incubators to help develop startups;
• Tasking the Madbouly Cabinet with developing a comprehensive higher education research program.

This comes as Egypt is planning to build 100 new Japanese-curriculum schools in the next four years, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said at the conference, Youm7 reports. The government also plans to develop 112 already-established schools to implement the Japanese curriculum over the same time period, Madbouly said.

El Sisi also took the time to discuss his administration’s economic reform drive, telling participants at the conference that they will need to be patient before seeing results and underscoring that there was no other path for the administration to take. He defended reforms during the Q&A portion of the conference, according to Al Mal.

International media coverage of the event was almost exclusively focused on his comments regarding social media backlash prompted by the austerity measures. El Sisi had noted his dismay at a trending Twitter hashtag calling for his exit from office; that was about the only coverage the foreign press noted about the education-focused event. The press also picked up on the president’s joking dismissal of the social media craze over the “Kiki dance” challenge.

ENR boss sacked after train derailed, injuring six: Transport Minister Hisham Arafat sacked Egypt National Railways (ENR) Chairman Sayed Salem after six people were injured when a train derailed on the Cairo-Aswan line yesterday, the Associated Press reports. The victims, who are said to be suffering from “minor wounds,” were transported to the Kom Ombo Central Hospital, according to the State Information Service. Arafat has ordered a fact-finding committee to investigate the incident, the second of its kind this month. The derailment of a train in Giza two weeks ago left 58 people injured, with preliminary findings suggesting that a lack of maintenance on the track was responsible. The Transport Ministry has been working on upgrading Egypt’s railway infrastructure since last summer, when two passenger trains collided killing more than 40 people. Ashraf Raslan was appointed as interim head of the ENR in the meantime.

AROUND THE WORLD- Tensions flare between US and Turkey over US pastor’s imprisonment: Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday that Ankara would “stand its ground” in the face of US sanctions that President Donald Trump threatened to slap the country with over the imprisonment of US Pastor Andrew Brunson. Bronson is being accused of “helping the group Ankara says was behind a failed military coup in 2016,” Reuters reports. The pastor, who has denied the charges, faces up to 35 years in prison and is currently under house arrest.

FEI tax committee to look into remarks on new Customs Act on Wednesday: The Federation of Egyptian Industries’ (FEI) tax committee will meet on Wednesday to discuss the FEI’s divisions’ remarks on the Finance Ministry’s new Customs Act, committee chair Mohamed El Bahey said, according to Al Shorouk. Bahey had said last week that their points of concern include stipulations requiring importers to submit letters from an accredited bank acting as a guarantor for the cost of customs duties and taxes, in addition to higher penalties for customs evaders and smugglers. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had previously told us that the ministry would introduce a “whitelist” of importers who benefit from expedited clearance of goods.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly is set to select the board of directors for Egypt’s EGP 200 bn sovereign wealth fund “within days.”

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is expected to land in Washington next week to meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over developments in the Middle East and US-Egypt relations.

US President Donald Trump might be holding a summit with Arab leaders in Washington on 12-13 October to discuss the establishment of a NATO-style Arab military force, sources told the Washington Post.

Mo Salah fans have until 10 August to make him one of FIFA’s top three men’s footballers for 2018. Cast your ballots here.

Cairo’s oldest watch workshop may be shutting down. The 111-year-old S. Hinhayat is one of a number of shops in the Maspero Triangle area that face demolition orders as part of the government’s redevelopment plans, according to Ahram Online.

Of youth conferences and “Kiki” challenges: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s comments on austerity measures and the “Kiki dance” from the Youth Conference topped headlines on Egypt in the foreign press this morning.

Other headlines worth noting in brief:

• President Abdel Fattah is ‘upset’ over recent social media posts urging him to step down, according to the Associated Press.
• The Independent is running a listicle of tourist faux-pas in Egypt, including “publicising strongly negative opinions” about the country.
• Trade publication TRT World caught wind of Egypt’s plans to make some beaches in Alexandria exclusive to foreigners and tourists.
• Mexican cement company Cemex has been suffering losses in Egypt, Colombia, and the Philippines, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Win over Daesh in Sinai: Rafah’s evacuation campaign is only one example of Egypt’s temporary win against Daesh in Sinai, Avi Issacharoff writes for the Times of Israel. The progress has allowed for a degree of normalcy to return, says AFP.

Why is everyone so scared of the “privatization” bogeyman? It’s about time Egypt gets over its unfounded fear of using the word “privatization” when discussing the future of state-owned companies, Abdel Moneim Saeed writes for Al Masry Al Youm. State-owned companies are generally badly managed, are not transparent and do little to improve themselves. Saeed hits the nail on the head in pointing out that shying away from using the term “privatization” is simply an issue of semantics that does not change the fact that privatization itself usually yields a positive outcome.

The global art market is still in a turbulent boom that began with the 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Georgina Adam writes for the Financial Times. On the same day as the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a two-day auction in London racked in far more than had been anticipated, a development that led many to believe that the high-end art market is “bulletproof” even in times of global turmoil.

High-end art has turned into a financial tool and investment: The hypothesis has mostly held up since then — there has been strong appetite for high-end and “brand name” art pieces, to the point that they’ve become a more popular investment than at any time before. “In the past decade and even more so in the past five years, a major stimulus, mainly for the high end, has been the financialisation of the market. Investment in art and art-secured lending are now big business — there are at least 20 players in the art-lending field, and the investment aspect is growing as well. The canary in the mine here is the astonishing development of freeports and art storage facilities … Works bought solely for investment, or those taken as collateral against loans, often end up in crates behind their armoured doors.” Mid-level art, meanwhile, is a far more turbulent segment that sees inexplicable spikes and nosedives partially fueled by “speculative fever” around new artists and styles.

Black market for sand? Believe it or not, the world is actually running low on sand, according to Science Insider. Evidence suggests that sand is becoming increasingly scarce in many regions, prompting lucrative black markets to emerge as its value increases. “In Vietnam, the ministry of construction made an official declaration that by 2020, Vietnam may run out sand because the extraction rates exceed the resources of the country” (watch, runtime: 7:43).

A reconciliation agreement between rival Palestinian factions is the key to reviving stalled peace talks between Palestine and Israel, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told World Jewish Congress President Ronald Lauder yesterday, according to an Ittihadiya statement. El Sisi also reiterated Egypt’s support for the resumption of peace talks grounded in a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders.

This comes as Egypt’s role as peacemaker in Gaza s getting significant ink in the foreign press. Egypt seems optimistic about an upcoming breakthrough in talks between Hamas and Israel to diffuse the tension in Gaza, Amos Harel writes for Haaretz. While the WSJ is noting that the UN is helping Egypt pressure Fatah and Hamas into reconciliation.

Egypt currently imports around 35-40% of its fuel needs, an EGPC official tells Amwal Al Ghad. According to the official, Egypt also relies on imports for around 50% of its monthly diesel consumption.

Seti First Travel is investing EGP 80-100 mn to officiate two Nile cruises between Abu Simbel to Sudan by 2020, boss Magdy Hanin tells Al Shorouk. The company is also spending EGP 32 mn by October to upgrade two of its floating hotels, which move between Cairo and Aswan. The new projects mean to meet the rising demand for Nile cruises as tourism slowly return to Egypt.

Vodafone Egypt plans to reach out to the government to urge it to expedite the replacement of the four current board members representing Telecom Egypt (TE), which owns 45% of the company, sources tell Amwal Al Ghad. Vodafone has been pressing the government to replace current TE representatives with non-executive board members with no ties to its competitors to eliminate any conflict of interest, an issue which had plagued the company. The government had announced two years prior that state owned TE will exit its shares on Vodafone Egypt, but had backtracked on the decision.

The National Bank of Greece (NBG) will begin next month receiving offers from banks in the domestic market looking to acquire its local portfolio and assets, which include 17 branches across the country, sources close to the matter tell Al Mal. The CBE had reportedly signed off last week on the NBG’s request to exit Egypt, which comes as part of a wider plan to reduce its overseas presence under an EU-supervised restructuring.

CI Capital is in talks to take on the management of two equity funds with combined assets under management of EGP 100 mn, Managing Director Amr Aboul Enein told Al Masry Al Youm. The move is part of the company’s plans to grow its AUM portfolio.

Shalakany Law Offices are advising on talks to settle the dispute between Emaar and El Nasr for Housing and Development over the land in the Uptown Cairo project, Partner Khaled El Shalakany tells Al Masry Al Youm, adding that he expects the issue to reach resolution soon. The latest development in the tired saga of Emaar vs. El Nasr Housing had seen employees of the state-owned company file lawsuits against state officials whom they’ve accused of siding with Emaar in choosing to accept the company’s EGP 100 mn settlement offer for the land.

A bishop was found dead inside a monastery in Beheira, with physical evidence suggesting that he was killed, the Associated Press reports. Bishop Epiphanius, head of the Anba Makar Monastery on the Wadi El Natroun road, was reportedly found with a smashed skull and injured back, security officials tell the newswire. Prosecutors have begun investigating the incident, according to Al Shorouk.

Egypt beat England 2-0 yesterday in the final game of the World Squash Federation’s (WSF) 2018 Men’s World Junior Team Squash Championship in India, according to the WSF portal. This is Egypt’s sixth time to claim the title since 1994. The Egyptian team “cruised through the six-day event in Chennai without dropping a single game.” Egyptian squash champions Rowan Elaraby and Mostafa Asal won the women’s and men’s single WSF World Junior Squash Championships last week.

A collection of 90 Ancient Egyptian artefacts are going on auction in the UK today, where they are expected to fetch as much as GBP 60k, according to the Sunday Express. The artefacts are Shabti figures — figurines that were “placed in tombs and intended to act as servants or minions for the deceased should they be called upon to do manual labour in the afterlife.”