PM — Worse before it gets better

Good afternoon, friends — we’ve just made it halfway through what has felt like the longest week on record. Maybe we all got too used to the long weekends?

DRIVING THE CONVERSATION TODAY-

It’s day two of Davos: The five-day World Economic Forum at Davos — under the theme “Cooperation in a Fragmented World” — is on day two, with sessions focused on technology, climate, and investments and it will continue on till 7pm CLT. Some of the sessions coming up this afternoon:

• A conversation with Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin at 4pm.
• An address by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez at 5pm.
• A session titled Infrastructure for a Clean Energy Economy, kicking off at 5:15pm.

Things will get worse before they get better: The IMF is projecting that “2024 will be a year in which we finally see the world economy on an upside,” IMF Managing DIrector Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC on the sidelines of Davos earlier today. Growth will continue to slow throughout 2023 and bottom out by the end of the year before we move on to better things in 2024.

But most agree they will get better: “We are optimistic, but we are cautiously optimistic” about global growth, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in an interview with Bloomberg, attributing his optimism to China’s resurrection after years of covid lockdowns.“The economy and the potential slowdown is still the biggest concern on everybody’s mind …I see green somewhere out there — maybe not now but in a couple of months.”

Egypt is among 45 partners pledging to help unlock the USD 3 tn of financing needed for the world to reach net zero by 2050 through the Giving to Amplify Earth Action initiative, the WEF said in a statement. “Egypt will work closely with the World Economic Forum to build effective and impactful philanthropic public private partnerships, and promote the role of the prominent ‘P’ – Philanthropy,” International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat said.

Al Mashat took the stage: International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat joined US climate chief John Kerry, UN climate finance envoy Mark Carney, WEF President Borge Brende and other climate experts to talk all things climate funding, in a session titled Philanthropy: A Catalyst for Protecting Our Planet (watch, runtime: 47:30). Al Mashat stressed on the importance of adaptation and resilience financing, hitting on the role multilateral development banks and philanthropy have to play in providing that money.

There’s more to come from Davos: Al Mashat will return to the Davos stage tomorrow and on Friday for sessions focused on the green transition and development finance, while Planning Minister Hala El Said will join her Saudi counterpart and the UAE’s economy minister in a session titled Between Liquidity and Fragility: Reforming in MENA on Thursday.

HAPPENING TODAY (NOT YESTERDAY)-

Cairo is hosting an Egyptian-Jordanian-Palestinian summit: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II are in Cairo today for talks with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to discuss recent developments in Israel and the occupied territories. The meeting comes days following a series of provocations by Israel’s new far-right government, which contains ministers that have advocated deporting Arabs and annexing the country’s illegal settlements in the West Bank.

CORRECTION: In yesterday’s edition of EnterprisePM, we incorrectly wrote that the talks took place in Cairo yesterday. The story has since been updated on our website.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Let it flow: Foreign investors have invested some USD 925 mn into our local foreign exchange market in the three days since the central bank let the EGP further depreciate against the greenback.
• Gulf investors in talks to acquire assets from HCCD: The parent company of Heliopolis Housing is in talks with undisclosed Gulf investors to sell land and other assets, two sources familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg Asharq.
• Cheap bread for all: The Supply Ministry will launch a new scheme to allow people not covered by its ration card system to buy discounted bread, Minister Ali El Moselhy said yesterday.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s book fair season: The Cairo International Book Fair will open its doors to the public at the International Exhibition Center in New Cairo on 26 January, according to Youm7. The event, which runs until 6 February, is expected to draw mns of visitors during the two weeks.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The mercury is set to reach 21°C during the day tomorrow in the capital city before dipping to 10°C at night, our favorite weather app tells us.

A global economy without a cop: The world trading system is grappling with deregulation as the World Trade Organization (WTO) becomes increasingly sidelined, the Wall Street Journal writes. Countries have been imposing greater export controls, subsidies, and tariffs that undermine trade relations — a trend spearheaded by the world’s two largest economies, the US and China. The Trump administration, for instance, violated WTO regulations by imposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum — with a US Trade Representative spokesperson insisting that the US, not the WTO, gets to decide what constitutes the protection of national security. China, meanwhile, has managed to circumvent the WTO’s jurisdiction through opaque subsidies. For years, the only EVs it subsidized were those with Chinese batteries, but no WTO violation could be proved because these discriminatory subsidies aren’t written into law. What’s more, Western countries often refrain from raising complaints against China to the WTO in fear of retaliatory measures, such as antitrust and cybersecurity investigations.

Where does this leave the future of world trade? The WSJ posits that the future is going to look a lot like “the pre-WTO past,” with trading partners moving towards negotiation rather than litigation and embracing regional pacts rather than a single stream of hardset rules. Countries will form trade relations “a la carte,” picking from a menu of partners and sectors that align with their values. But as always, not all will wield the same power. “Just as hockey without referees favors the team with the largest players, trade without binding dispute settlement favors those countries best able to retaliate, or withstand retaliation — i.e., the US, China and the EU,” the writer notes.

Business needs to adapt to a changing world of work if they want to be around in 10 years: Nearly 40% of global CEOs believe their company will no longer be financially viable within a decade if they remain on their current trajectories, pointing primarily to a shortage in skilled employees, technological advancements, and shifting customer preferences, PwC’s Global CEO Survey shows. The survey, which was released yesterday just as Davos kicked off, paints an image of a widely negative sentiment regarding “immediate global outlook and longer-term survival prospects,” The Guardian writes. Growth prospects were bleak as well, with almost 75% of CEOs predicting that growth will slow in the coming year. CEOs across the globe were more confident in their three-year revenue growth prospects than they are in the shorter-term.

CEOs’ confidence in their own company’s prospects fell 25% y-o-y — a steeper decline than any other drop in the previous 15 years, with the exception of the 50% y-o-y drop recorded in 2009 with the global banking crisis. CEOs in the Middle East, Africa, Brazil, China, Japan however were an exception; they remained as confident in their growth prospects as they were last year. CEOs in the US were the most optimistic “about the long-term viability of their business models,” while their peers in China (who are facing uncertainty about freeflowing global trade) and in Japan (who have been hindered by having one of the oldest populations in the world) were the least optimistic.

AND- The majority of the C-suite class anticipate some level of climate-change-related impact over the next year, particularly in their cost profiles (which 50% anticipated will be impacted) and supply chains (42%). Fewer respondents (24%) were concerned about physical assets being impacted by climate change. Chinese CEOs feel particularly susceptible with 71% anticipating potential impact to their supply chains, 65% in cost profiles, and 56% in physical assets.

Big shakeup in Big Tech manufacturing as Apple moves away from Samsung for microLED screen production: Apple is set to begin manufacturing its microLED screens in-house, as it looks to move its production chain away from production partners Samsung and LG, Bloomberg reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Apple is currently planning to begin using its own screens for certain products as early as next year, which will allow it to create and test higher quality screens faster and cheaper, the sources say.

Researchers have developed a laser beam that can divert lightning strikes and help protect infrastructure. The new “laser lightning rod” is a significant advancement in the development of laser-based lightning protection that may be used to protect important facilities, such as airports and power stations during thunderstorms, according to the results of the research published in Nature Photonics.

How it works: The new technology managed to deflect four lightning strikes at the Swisscom transmitter tower on Mount Säntis, during six hours of thunderstorm activity through the use of a high-frequency laser beam which “ionizes air molecules in its path, creating an electrically conducting channel to guide a lightning strike” to the ground, The Financial Times writes. The aim of the project is to protect a broader area than the traditional metal rods that protrude from critical buildings and tall towers currently do. Those rods’ radius of protection from strikes is approximately equal to their height. The Säntis trial comes after 20 years of studies and laboratory tests aimed at producing a laser capable of diverting lightning without using large amounts of energy or creating safety issues. The scientists’ next step for the project is applying for funding to test the system at an airport.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
(all times CLT)

Of all the spy-adventure content available on Netflix, The Recruit is worth watching. The limited series follows Owen Hendricks, a fresh graduate lawyer, who gets recruited by the CIA as his first job. Unfamiliar with the workplace culture and politics, Owen struggles to maintain control when he comes across classified information that puts him in contact with a former CIA asset who is threatening to reveal the organization’s secrets unless he helps her survive. His life is turned upside down as he becomes entangled in other international issues — and risks his life in the process.

⚽ In the last round of the first stage of the Handball World Cup: Egypt faces off against the US tonight at 7pm. So far, the Pharaohs are leading the group after coming out on top in two matches, thereby securing their qualification for the next round, regardless of today’s outcome.

Who will face Pyramids in the Egyptian Cup final? Al Ahly is going through a tough challenge against Smouha in the Egyptian Cup semi-finals tonight at 6pm — the victor will qualify for the cup final against Pyramids, who edged out Zamalek yesterday in penalties.

Happening in the round of 64 in the FA Cup: Liverpool will play against Wolverhampton once more tonight at 9:45pm, following a 2-2 draw last Saturday.

More matches in the round of 16 of the Italian-Spain Cup today:

Naples v Cremonese (10pm)

Real Sociedad v Mallorca (10pm)

Deportivo Alavés v Seville (10pm)

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
(all times CLT)

The legendary pianist and composer, Omar Khairat, is playing tonight at the Cairo Opera House at 8pm.

Don’t miss out on power girls mmmmmalak, El Kontessa & Jana, as they spin the night away with heavy bass beats at Cairo Jazz Club in Agouza at 9pm.

Prepare to sing your heart out at Karaoke night at the Room Garden City at 8pm.

Nūn Center is hosting a swing dancing class tonight at 8:15pm, inspired by Afro-American culture dating back to the 20th century.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Strange the Dreamer will steal away your soul: The novel, written by Laini Taylor, follows Lazlo Strange, a war orphan who believes that “the dream chooses the dreamer, not the other way around.” Strange is an avid reader, and is obsessed with the whimsical “lost city of Weep” and is seeking out the answers to several questions that lead him to embark on an adventure with “Godslayer and a band of legendary warriors,” encountering characters' souls entangled with demons and angels, and others representing salvation and domination.

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 3.14 bn (85.7% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 9.5% YTD.

In the green: QNB Al Ahli (+5.7%), Ibnsina Pharma (+4.4%) and Heliopolis Housing (+4.4%).

In the red: Alexandria Containers and Cargo (-2.6%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-2.0%) and Credit Agricole Egypt (-1.3%).

OUR FOUNDER OF THE WEEK– Every Tuesday, Founder of the Week looks at how a successful member of Egypt’s startup community got their big break, asks about their experiences running a business, and gets their advice for budding entrepreneurs. Speaking to us this week is Hassan Fayed (LinkedIn), founder and CEO at Aydi, an HR platform targeted at the agriculture sector.

My name is Hassan Fayed, and I am the founder and CEO of Aydi. We assist blue-collar workers — farmers — with seasonal staff hiring, management, and compensation.

I spent the majority of my career working in Dubai. I was the head of innovation at the Dubai Airport Freezone, which is one of the largest special economic zones in the MENA region. I specialized in building in-house ventures, including Dubai CommerCity, Tradeling, and Scality. I continue to serve on the boards of Scality and Tradeling.

My family is in the agriculture business, so I grew up very close to that sector. I used to spend the first month of my summers harvesting grapes in the fields, and that's when I first noticed the problem that Aydi is attempting to fix. Agriculture is the world’s largest employer as a sector, with more than 1 bn seasonal employees worldwide — and 80% of them have purchased their first smartphone in the last five years.

The issue that these people are facing is a lack of year-round employment opportunities. Contrary to us, who have LinkedIn and other social media platforms, these people have nothing to publish or any profiles with which to advertise their qualified talents. And due to the seasonal nature of the labor, it is very difficult for the landowners and handlers to identify skilled workers, hire them, and keep them on board. There are also instances when the farms’ management are unaware of who their employees are, who is going and who is staying, what issues they are having, and so on. Additionally, the entire process — including payroll and finances — is conducted primarily on paper. It's an extremely antiquated method of operating.

What we are attempting to do at Aydi is provide an end-to-end solution for farms that allows them to recruit suitable workers, and manage their workforce in terms of tracking attendance, productivity, and satisfaction scores. It also serves as a route for farmers to report any issues that may arise, as well as allows the management to identify who their top performers are and award bonuses to them among other things. We also automate payroll and digitize payments to these workers.

I decided to establish Aydi because its business mission resonated with me. I was constantly seeking out different ways to manage teams of workers more effectively and to introduce new strategies. I felt that the next step was to create something that I want to be a part of for the foreseeable future — and be excited to wake up everyday knowing that this is my profession. Our vision is to become the world’s top platform for unlocking and improving human productivity in the agricultural sector. I believe that when automation enters this industry, it will drastically improve productivity, and allow workers to adapt to new technology and solutions.

The best part of my job is being in the field — visiting various farms, chatting with farmers and hearing about their experiences. It also gives me great pleasure to witness the positive impact our product is having on their lives.

The most challenging part of my job is the initial process of trying to educate our clients. The majority of farms we work with don’t employ any kind of robust software and instead use pen and paper to record everything. The hardest aspect is breaking through their initial reluctance to adopt new ways of working; it’s an industry that greatly avoids introducing new technologies.

We are currently working with around 20 of the largest commercial farms in the country as our clients, and we are planning to expand our business even further by publicly launching our product, making it available for both individuals and independent farm-owners to use. We also want to establish a presence in another market by 3Q this year.

I collaborate closely with our leadership team to find solutions to problems. We also have excellent investors on board, including both angel and VC, who are very helpful when it comes to addressing challenges. I also turn to my family and friends when I need to make a decision that is consistent with my own personal values and character.

I sacrificed everything to start my own company [laughs]. A business’ development takes endless hours of work. I gave up my social life and a promising job in Dubai. I also see my family and my dog much less than I would like. My family first found it difficult to understand why I would take the risk of leaving my well-paying job and choose to launch a business. However, as they came to realize the product's value over time, they became quite supportive.

Whenever I have some spare time, I try to sleep and eat [laughs]. Jokes aside, I love water sports and participate in diving, wakeboarding, and kitesurfing. I also compete in golf, and enjoy spending time with my family and friends.

The last great thing I read was Fyodor Dostoevsky’s Russian novel The Brothers Karamazov. I recently watched White Noise, and I listen regularly to the All-In podcast with Chamath, Jason, Sacks, and Friedberg. It's a one-and-a-half hour weekly podcast where four extremely bright and accomplished people talk openly about a variety of things that are happening in the world that week.

I believe that OpenAI is killing it on a global scale. The level of technological innovation that they are bringing, as well as the worldwide impact that it will have over the next decade, will be unlike any other transformation we have witnessed.

If I could give someone who is thinking of starting their own business just one piece of advice, it would be to hire the best and the brightest. You will never succeed in your goals, no matter how capable you are, if you don't surround yourself with people who are more skilled than you are. The best catalyst for growth is having a very strong team.