Egypt’s economy grew 4.4% y-o-y in 1Q FY 2022-2023, according to preliminary data from the Planning Ministry. GDP growth in the first quarter of the state’s current fiscal year (which starts in July) came despite continued global headwinds thanks to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change, Planning Minister Hala El Said said yesterday in a meeting with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly.

AND- Gov’t revises growth estimates for the full fiscal year: The Planning Ministry is now expecting our economy to grow by around 5.0% in FY 2022-2023, El Said said in a separate meeting yesterday with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Madbouly, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The draft budget for this fiscal year had penciled in growth of 5.5%.

The government’s 5.0% estimate is more optimistic than forecasts from some international institutions because it reflects the “resilience” our economy has shown “as a result of the growth and activity generated by public investment,” El Said is quoted as saying. Last quarter’s 4.4% growth is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s most recent estimate for Egypt for the full fiscal year, while the World Bank in October predicted our economy to grow 4.8% in FY 2022-2023.

Balancing growth + inflation is key: Madbouly and El Said discussed measures meant to achieve a balance between maintaining high growth and containing inflation. They also discussed how to protect jobs and reduce the country’s external debt burden. Urban inflation hit its highest level in four years in October, coming in at 16.2% on the back of surging food prices, while the external debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 34.6%.