Good morning, kind people, and happy Thursday. We’re stumbling bleary-eyed toward the finish line on another long week — and our reward is a bucketload of news. There’s something for everyone here, from the latest in state stake sales, to cabinet measures to ease FX shortages and imports of everything from cars to wheat — rounded off with a nice big chunk of VC funding for local fintech startups.

Sweater weather? Ok, perhaps not quite — but it’s going to be a little cooler over the weekend, with temperatures peaking at 27-29°C in the day and hitting as low as 21°C at night, the national weather service says. There’s also a chance of rain along northern coastal regions.

THE BIG STORY THIS MORNING here at home is … from Washington, DC, where Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said an assistance package from the IMF is in the “final confirmation” stage. Maait was speaking with reporters late yesterday on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Cabinet is hoping the long-awaited package could be announced before the gathering wraps up, Reuters and CNBC Arabia report.

Maait wasn’t giving much away: The finance minister is quoted as saying officials have reached an agreement on all aspects of the package, but he stopped short of giving details or confirming that the size and structure of the facility have been nailed down.

The gov’t is in favor of a more flexible FX rate for the EGP “if necessary,” Maait said, adding that the soaring USD has added pressure on currencies everywhere. His comments echo previous statements by Planning Minister Hala El Said. The EGP has continued to inch down against the greenback in recent days and weeks and has lost around a quarter of its value against the USD so far this year.

The IMF executive board has still not released its public meeting schedule. The body would have to approve any new assistance program for Egypt. Senior Egyptian officials and members of the banking community are all in DC for the meetings.

IT’S DAY FOUR of the gathering and all eyes in Egypt should be on IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva’s briefing and presser. Georgieva is giving a briefing on the group’s “global policy agenda” at 2pm CLT, with a 45-minute-long “open press conference” set to follow. We’re hoping Egypt comes up.

ALSO IN DC TODAY: Enterprise Climate is reporting this morning that there will be tons of climate talk, with attendees debating the role of multilateral development banks in the energy transition. Tap or click here for the full schedule.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Banque du Caire has raised interest rates on three-year USD certificates of deposit to 5.3% from 2.5%, following a similar move by its fellow state-owned lenders National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr. (Al Mal).

DISPATCH FROM THE UAE- Traffic in Dubai was insane yesterday as crowds — the size of which we haven’t seen since well before covid-19 — descended on the city for GITEX. Yesterday’s highlight: Our friends at Emirati tech and investment giant e& launched their foray into the metaverse with e& Universe. We’ll go deeper into e&’s transformation strategy and global ambitions next week in a Coffee With… Group CEO Hatem Dowidar. The weeklong tech extravaganza wraps up tomorrow.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s a big day for global macro news: US inflation figures are also out today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting core inflation — which strips out volatile items like food and fuel – to return to the 40-year highs recorded in March. They’re predicting a slight deceleration in the headline figure to 8.1% y-o-y — still a rapid pace of inflation for any developed economy.

The US Fed will be watching closely — and everyone else will be watching the Fed. Another alarmingly high inflation figure will only amp up the pressure for the Fed to go for another rate hike during its November meeting. The US central bank raised interest rates by 75 bps for a third successive meeting last month.

The Fed remains inclined to go hard: The Fed’s latest meeting saw “participants emphasizing that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action,” according to the newly released minutes, the Financial Times reports.

There’s no one BIG STORY ABROAD catching the attention of the international press this morning. The financial papers are focused on the US inflation figures out later today, the Fed’s likely response, and the noise coming out of DC as the World Bank and IMF meetings continue.

Some satisfaction for those of us who dislike fake news: Much of the ‘mainstream media’ is taking note this morning of the nearly USD 1 bn in damages that a US court has ordered conspiracy theorist Alex Jones must pay to the families of victims of the Sandy Hook school shooting, after he called the tragedy a hoax. Reuters | WSJ | WaPo | AP

***

Take our EV survey: Are you an ex-petrolhead shopping around for your first electric vehicle? EV-curious and wondering what all the fuss is about? Or are you not ready to say goodbye to that sweet smell of benzene as you wait at the gas station?

We want to hear from you: We’re taking the pulse on how the nation feels about Egypt’s nascent EV transition. Take a few minutes to fill out our short survey. We’ll be back with the results in a couple of weeks.

***

MARKET WATCH-

OPEC slashed its outlook on world oil demand for 2022 and 2023, citing continued inflationary pressures, an extension of China’s covid-19 restrictions and slowing global economic growth, according to its monthly oil market report (pdf). The oil cartel now expects global oil demand to grow 2.7% this year (up some 2.6 mn barrels per day, down 460k bpd from its earlier forecast). “The world economy has entered into a time of heightened uncertainty and rising challenges, amid ongoing high inflation levels, monetary tightening by major central banks, high sovereign debt levels in many regions as well as ongoing supply issues,” it said.

The worsened outlook sheds light on OPEC’s decision last week to announce its biggest production cut since 2020 under efforts to support dropping oil prices, a move which was criticized by the US.

But what about next year? OPEC sees oil demand increasing by 2.3 mn bpd to 102 mn bpd, down 360k bpd on its previous forecast.

COUNTDOWN TO COP (24 days to go)-

Big-name finance bosses are skipping COP27, saying they have better things to do: Several top-level finance executives will be notably absent from COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh next month, including the CEOs of Blackrock, Citigroup, and Standard Chartered, Enterprise Climate notes this morning. The three executives all made appearances at COP26, with BlackRock and Citi among signatories of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, but this year the finance heavyweights will send delegations of lower-level representatives.

Why? Bloomberg says it’s because the three have “more immediate” crises to deal with (largely related to fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine), saying the news comes as the “credibility of some net-zero pledges is in doubt.”

More COP talk: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and UN climate chief Simon Steele talked all things COP 27 during a meeting yesterday, according to a statement.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Bread reform committee should get House approval on Sunday: The House should approve Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy’s proposal to form an ad hoc committee to look into possible changes to the country’s massive bread subsidy program during its session on Sunday, 16 October.

The EGX is looking to drum up interest in listed companies on a roadshow to Dubai and Abu Dhabi later this month, an EGX source told Enterprise. The bourse has tapped Al Ahly Pharos to help manage the roadshow, with EGX boss Rami El Dokany set to meet with as many as 100 regional and international financial institutions, the source said.

Fuel prices to rise this month? We’re expecting the government to hike fuel prices for the seventh consecutive quarter when the fuel pricing committee meets this month. Fuel prices have risen by as much as 28% over the past 18 months in response to heightened international oil prices, which surged earlier this year on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.