Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another macro-heavy Monday. Here at home, we have major trade and diplo news, while abroad, the world is eagerly anticipating how the Fed plans to move on inflation, which is fueling a potential global labor protest movement (more on that in today’s For Your Commute).

But first, the Islamic New Year teasing continues: The private sector will be off on Saturday in observance of the Islamic New Year, a statement by the Manpower Ministry read. The news follows an announcement by the Madbouly cabinet yesterday that Saturday will be a national holiday in observance of Islamic New Year. It is highly unlikely we’ll be getting a weekday replacement day.

Your next national holiday is not likely to be before October when we observe Armed Forces Day. 6 October will, in turn, be our last holiday until New Year’s Day 2023 (which is typically a day off for the banking sector).

THIS IS WHAT THE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE: With holidays tied to the lunar calendar coming up 10 days earlier each year, we’re going to be frontloading our holiday schedule in the first half of the year for some time to come. It’ll be interesting to see how we all space out our vacation days in response.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE identified USD 3.4 bn-worth of joint investment projects to implement in the first phase of the three countries’ USD 10 bn industrial partnership, according to a Trade and Industry Ministry statement (pdf). A high-level committee bringing together the three countries’ trade ministers identified these projects as being qualified for feasibility studies, the statement says. The investments, which cover 12 separate projects, are in the food and agriculture, fertilizers, and pharma sectors. The next phase of the partnership will focus on chemicals, textiles, clothing, plastics, and metals manufacturing.

The three countries also announced today that Bahrain will be joining the partnership, making it the first country outside the three founding nations to do so. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly had previously invited “our brothers from Arab states” to enter the partnership alongside Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The global business press has its eyes squarely fixed on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting tomorrow, with analysts and investors consulting their magic eight-balls on how far the Fed will go with its tightening cycle. While the consensus is that the Fed will go ahead with a second consecutive 75-bps rate hike to tamp down on inflation, some investors are hopeful that this marks the peak of its tightening cycle, spurring a stock rally that saw everything from oil to European stocks and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, Bloomberg reports.

But many analysts think it’s premature to assume the Fed will take its foot off the pedal: Morgan Stanley analysts and analysts at Barclays say the Fed will continue to raise rates as inflation remains entrenched in the economy, estimating that it could be months before the Fed is comfortable enough with inflation to pivot its stance. Some are even projecting that the Fed will make a rare U-turn by raising rates aggressively through the end of the year before cutting them next year as the economy moves into recession, the Wall Street Journal reports.

^^We’ll have more on these and other stories in tomorrow’s EnterpriseAM.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Shipments of Russian wheat are safe, Lavrov tells Egypt: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sought to ease Egyptian fears of a shortage of wheat and other grains during talks with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in Cairo yesterday.
• Major port investments coming: The Suez Canal Container Terminal wants to invest USD 500 mn to expand the capacity of East Port Said port, company representatives confirmed to Enterprise.
• O West lands EGP 1.5 bn in funding from CIB: Orascom Development Egypt subsidiary Orascom for Real Estate has signed a EGP 1.5 bn facility agreement with CIB to partially finance and fast-track construction at its flagship O West project in west Cairo.

HAPPENING NOW- El Sisi brings Somalia into the fold on GERD: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud agreed on the gravity of “unilateral policies” in the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), El Sisi said at a press conference today following their meeting (watch, runtime: 5:16). He said both leaders exchanged viewpoints on conditions in the Horn of Africa, and agreed on the necessity of “consolidating peace and stability in the region that is of strategic importance to our continent”.

FOR TOMORROW-

The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook is out tomorrow: The Fund has warned that it will “substantially” downgrade its 2022 global growth forecast as the war in Ukraine, surging global inflation and rising interest rates weigh on the global economy.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Leaders from across Africa are scheduled to convene in Washington for the US-Africa Leaders Summit from 13-15 December. The summit will bring together leaders to discuss pressing matters including food security and climate change, according to a White House statement.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Temperatures in Cairo will hit 41°C tomorrow during the day before falling to 24°C at night, our favorite weather app tells us.