Judge’s suicide in custody causes uproar + Education Ministry publishes naughty list

Public service announcement #1: If you, like us, haven’t obtained a fuel smart card, now may be the time to look into it. As exactly none of us here have yet done so, a handful of us will be trying to register vehicles in the coming days — Egyptian and foreigner, in Arabic and in English. We’ll report back the results. Ahram Online has a how to, but it seems in any case that the first steps are to:

• Want the card in person? Head to El Moroor (foreign readers: imagine the Department of Motor Vehicles, only in hell).
• Or arrange home delivery by sending a text message to 4555 — it hasn’t worked for us yet — asking for instructions.
• Visit www.esp.gov.eg for more detail

Pre-recorded instructions (Arabic only) are available on 19683. You’re also supposed to be able to call 19680, but that wasn’t working for us any more than the text message system was. ESP.gov.eg also includes a page on which you can request a new smartcard if you’ve lost yours. You’ll need your chassis number (also called a vehicle identification number, or VIN, typically stamped on a little metal plate just inside your windshield, where the windscreen meets your dashboard) and your motor number (usually stamped on your engine). Both numbers are printed on your vehicle license.

Public service announcement #2: Get rid of round GBP 1 coins before 15 October. New 12-sided pound coins go into circulation on 28 March 2017, and any existing coins will become worthless on 15 October. Given GBP 1 equals roughly EGP 6.02×10^23, you may want to think seriously about spending those pounds or exchanging them for something that will be legal tender come fall. Business Insider has more.

Public service announcement #3: God help you if you’re en route to America as you read this. From The Verge: “Massive lines at US airports after nationwide customs outage: A problem in the computer systems used by United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) authorities has left thousands stuck in airports and unable to enter the country. Officials from the CBP confirmed to CBS News that the outage was nationwide, after many passengers took to Twitter, expressing their frustration at being stranded and sharing photos of huge lines.”

The Emirates NBD Egypt PMI by Markit is due out tomorrow morning by 6:15am or so. The Saudi and UAE PMIs are due out at the same time.

Strong reserves report expected: The central bank is expected to tell us by Thursday how much reserves were in its coffers at the end of 2016, and we speculate it will be a pleasant surprise. Governor Tarek Amer’s CBE is on track to become the rare kind of Egyptian institution that manages to set itself an ambitious, measurable target and succeeds not only in achieving it, but quite possibly overshoot it. Amer had stated repeatedly that he aims to bring the CBE’s reserves to USD 25 bn by the end of December 2016. As of November, the CBE’s net international reserves stood at USD 23.1 bn and, having stopped defending the EGP following the flotation in November. Egypt has since signed a USD 2.7 bn swap agreement with China as well as agreements worth more than EUR 500 mn with the European Union and French Development Agency.

Not going to be included in the reserves report: USD 1 bn in funding approved and disbursed by the World Bank and USD 500 mn from the African Development Bank. An exclusive report by Youm7 in late December quoted Amer as noting that the AfDB and WB funding will be used to finance imports of fuel and LNG and to finance operations and maintenance costs at state-owned power plants.

Important to remember: The CBE will have to make a payment to its Paris Club creditors in January.

Look for news on the eurobonds in the coming 2-3 weeks. We expect the Finance Ministry to announce Egypt’s planned USD 2.5-3 bn eurobond issuance sometime in the coming two to three weeks. The plan, as announced in December, was to move ahead with the issuance mid-January. Deputy Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said at the time he expected the interest rate on the issuance to be around 6-7%.

European car prices in Egypt should start falling? Customs tariffs on EU-made cars have supposedly been reduced by up to 70% since the start of January as part of an existing trade deal that will see them eliminated entirely by 2019. Sources told Al Borsa that a decision enforcing the directive has been passed on to all ports of entry. The head of the Egyptian auto assemblers association said the Egyptian consumers will not see any tangible reductions in sticker prices mostly due to the rising exchange rate, according to Ahram Gate. Regardless of whether there is merit to this argument, this could be an area that will keep the Egyptian Competition Authority busy from the start of the year.

A senior Egyptian judge arrested early this week on corruption charges was found dead in his detention cell yesterday and is believed to have committed suicide, Reuters said. Wael Shalaby, a deputy chief justice in the administrative courts system and secretary-general of Maglis Al Dowla, had been arrested on suspicion of bribery and corruption along with Maglis Al Dowla’s purchasing manager Gamal Al Labban. The Prosecutor General has issued a gag order on details of the corruption case.

The Shalaby case was the topic of the night on the nation’s talkshows. Shalaby had denied all accusations against him in questioning by investigators, his lawyer told CBC’s Lamees El Hadidy in a call-in last night. “There isn’t a single piece of evidence to prove Shalaby’s involvement in the case,” lawyer Sayed El Beheiry said (watch, runtime 12:00).

Amr Adib also spoke to El Beheiry, who repeated what he’d said to El Hadidy and added that his client was a “God-fearing man” who would not have committed suicide (watch, runtime 16:29). MP Mostafa Bakry rang up Adib to deny suggestions that Shalaby had been murdered while in custody. Bakry also defended the court-issued gag order on the case, saying it is “meant to protect the investigation” (watch, runtime 6:23). Judge Fouad Abdel Fattah, Shalaby successor in the administrative judiciary, told Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer that having known Shalaby personally, “I don’t think he committed suicide… Maybe he was under immense psychological pressure in the last few days.”

Over on Al Nahar, Youm7 honcho Khaled Salah hosted Orascom Hotels and Development Chairman Samih Sawiris on Ala Hawa Masr, during which the businessman gave his two cents on Egypt’s current economic situation. Sawiris subtly hinted that the government can do more to stimulate tourism and investments, saying that one of the main factors that encourage him to invest abroad is confidence that agreements will be upheld and not be reversed at the drop of a hat (watch, runtime 1:07:29).

Also last night:

• Lamees defended Ibrahim Eissa, criticizing what she characterized as the cancellation of his show. “This is frustrating for anyone in the media industry… if we remain quiet about this, then we will be going soon too,” she remarked, asking the authorities to leave room for differences in opinion (watch, runtime 5:08).
• Beta-testing of the fuel smart card system has rolled out to 2,500 of 3,600 petrol stations nationwide, the manager responsible for the program told Lamees (watch, runtime 16:08).
• Adib broadcast a report about a Justice Ministry workshop that will discuss unspecified amendments to the Criminal Code.

The Education Ministry has published a naughty list of international and language schools in Egypt and the actions it has taken against them. On top of the list are SABIS’ International School of Choueifat and the American International School in New Cairo, both of which have been put under the Ministry’s financial and administrative control for charging parents “different tuition fees based on the USD exchange rate in violation of the law” among other “violations” for which they have been embroiled in a legal dispute with the government since last year. The Ministry’s list also includes a decision that ordered closed Nefertari International School and handed a number of warnings to other international schools for charging fees in foreign currency, not having the necessary permits, and other procedural violations. You can check here (Arabic only) to see if your kid’s / younger sibling’s / your own schools is listed. (Relax, non-readers of Arabic: If you’re looking for the “association-owned” schools — MBIS, NCBIS, BISC, etc — they’re not on the list. Neither is CAC.)

Sending a message to the public: The exchange rate should stabilize in three months’ time as overall economic conditions begin to improve, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail promised. Paving the way for that stability is Egypt’s transformation into a free market economy through legislative reforms, the gradual phase-out of subsidies, and the shift in focus from imports to FX-earning exports, Ismail told Egyptian state television, Al Shorouk reported.

Flows into banking system look reasonable: An exclusive report by Youm7 quotes Amer as having said that c. USD 6.9 bn has flowed into the banking system since the float.

The prime minister’s remarks came as the Central Bank released figures on Monday showing M2 money supply was up 39% y-o-y at the end of November to EGP 2.6 tn compared to EGP 1.87 tn last year. Also notable: On a month-on-month basis, local currency deposits were up 5.4% to EGP 1.57 tn in November — in large part due to the high-interest CDs offered by many domestic banks after the float of the EGP. Foreign currency deposits doubled between October and November to EGP 653 bn in local currency terms, suggesting the float of the pound attracted fresh FCY deposits. We’ll be keeping a close eye on what happens to this figure in the December report.

We got a bit excited about the prospect of a new investment act, but then the realities of Egyptian bureaucracy hit us: It will take Maglis Al Dowla (the State Council) almost a month to complete its review of the investment act from the date of receiving it — and it has not officially received it yet, sources told Al Borsa. Maglis Al Dowla is tasked with revising the law and its text prior to presenting it to the House of Representatives to ensure it is drafted unambiguously and that it is not in violation of the constitution. The body would need 2-4 weeks to review the document, the source added. To save time, Investment Minister Dalia Khorshid said the Ministry will not wait for Maglis Al Dowla to complete its review, but will begin drafting the law’s executive regulations straight away.

Procedurally, however, the law cannot be introduced to the House before Maglis Al Dowla finishes its work — a number of laws were struck down during the later years of the Mubarak era for having been passed by what was then known as the People’s Assembly without advice and consent of the State Council.

The Finance Ministry was allegedly behind the scrapping of private free zones, an unnamed source told El Watan, claiming that the ministry was primarily concerned that private free zones could become hotbeds of corruption. The head of the importers’ division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce told the newspaper separately that private free zones are responsible for 80% of smuggling cases and cost the state around EGP 66 bn annually (here’s the salt shaker to help you digest that one). The Investment Ministry and some industry players are critical of the decision on private free zones.

Good news for government contractors: Finance Minister Amr El Garhy will allow government contractors to revise their pricing in line with movement in the FX rate every three months instead of every six, as was previously the case, Al Mal reports. The minister signed off on the change in amendments to the executive regulations to the nation’s auctions and tenders act.

Sin tax to support healthcare spending: The House of Representatives has approved a bill that will see EGP 0.40 of the VAT on each cigarette pack sold be directed towards healthcare, Aswat Masriya reported. Also yesterday: The Health Ministry has allocated EGP 8 bn to develop and renovate public hospitals over the next two years, Al Ahram reported Minister Ahmed Rady as saying during a meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Monday.

The House of Representatives voted yesterday in favor of a bill that will see the establishment of a national food safety authority to monitor products in the market and ensure their compliance with set health and safety standards. According to Ahram Gate, the authority will report directly to the presidency. The head of the new authority will have the power to suspend licenses, shut down facilities and return imported products if they fail inspection. Business owners will be allowed to appeal decisions to a grievance committees.

Mobile network operators, Telecom Egypt still dancing around infrastructure sharing agreement: The three existing mobile network operators (MNOs) have submitted their pricing formula for allowing Telecom Egypt (TE) to use their 2G and 3G networks. The proposal would cap the total number of TE subscribers who could be active on the rented infrastructure, sources told Al Borsa. In addition to paying rental fees to one or more of the existing operators, TE will also be required to pay the National Telecom Regulatory Authority EGP 20 for every new user for the first one mn users, dropping to EGP 15 for the second one mn users, then to EGP 10 for the third one mn users, and then a further drop for any additional users. In December, NTRA extended the deadline for TE to sign agreements with one or more of the MNOs to use their existing 2G and 3G network infrastructure until it completes its own 4G network. TE CEO Tamer Gadalla had said at the time TE was not bound to sign agreements with all three operators and will launch 4G services after inking a pact with any one of them and objected to having the MNOs launch 4G services before his company. MNOs are waiting for TE as they have already asked NTRA to give them a final date on which they will be handed their respective 4G spectra.

Following on the Financial Times’ list of events that would set the tone for the year, economist Tyler Cowen published his own list of what emerging market watchers should keep an eye on in 2017. The list, similar to the FT’s, keeps an eye on presidential elections in Iran and whether Xi Jinping will overturn political conventions and stay in power for longer. Other things to watch for in 2017 include:

• How Nigeria copes with its recession;
• Whether the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains stable;
• Economic growth in Pakistan (4.7% last year) and Bangladesh (an average of 6% in the last decade).

Cowen also mentioned a number of “sleeper issues,” including Russia-Israel tensions over control of Middle Eastern airspace; economic and institutional recovery in Ukraine; and the potential failure of the Saudi reform process.

Bloomberg weighs in with what it claims are “the most popular investor picks for emerging markets in 2017.” It’s not based on a poll, though, appearing more to be cobbled together from whatever research notes hit some random writer’s inbox before deadline. The top picks: Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, India and Indonesia.

As for the biggest issues facing global investors in 2017, the FT suggests they include:

• Are markets at risk of a Trump disappointment trade?
• How will Europe and the UK handle Brexit?
• Will the oil market balance?
• Are global banks investable once more?
• Are financial conditions going to be tighter?
• Will there be more public market listings?
• Has the EM tantrum got further to run?

If you’re mulling the possible shape of global markets this year, the two pieces are well worth the read.

The suicide while in custody of the secretary-general of the Maglis El Dowla is the leading news item on Egypt, complete with the use of quote marks around “kills himself” (BBC) and “hanged himself” (Al Jazeera). Most major news outlets are picking up wire copy, particularly from Reuters). That could change in the days ahead: Yesterday was a national holiday in the US and UK, so look for the English language press to take the story of a test drive. We wouldn’t be surprised to if Ibrahim Eissa going off the air were to similarly become grist for the mill.

Second World War belligerents left behind up to 15 mn landmines that continue to litter Egypt’s North Coast to this day, writes Peter Schwartzstein for the Daily Beast. Italian expert and president of the Italian Society for Military Geology and Geography (SIGGMI) Aldino Bondesan and his colleagues have been able to identify every single Italian and German emplacement right down to company level—and some to platoon level. By matching satellite imagery with markings on Afrika Korps maps, they’ve pinpointed up to 30k defensive positions. With the aid of a series of WWII maps handed over by the British Embassy, former head of Egypt’s land mine clearance unit Fathy El Shazly had previously said finding the battlefield positions will help find most of the mines. Here’s to hoping all of the mines are cleared before work begins on building the nuclear power plant in Daba’a.

Fahmy writes a book documenting his time in an Egyptian prison: Mohamed Fahmy, the Canadian-Egyptian Al Jazeera reporter who was imprisoned in Egypt as part of the so-called Marriott cell, released a book documenting his time in detention. Fahmy’s imprisonment over charges of being a pro-Muslim Brotherhood “terrorist,” fabricating news and endangering the “security” of the state were “lies” and the trials that followed were a mockery of justice, writes Robert Fisk for The Independent. In the book, “The Marriott Cell: An Epic Journey from Cairo’s Scorpion Prison to Freedom,” Fahmy says he found himself both appalled by the self-righteousness of his fellow prisoners (primarily Islamists), but was trusted and admired by them, because he too had fallen foul of the same system.

Newton doesn’t like meat plan: The Al Masry Al Youm columnist writing under the pseudonym Newton published a letter from a reader saying the plan to import one mn head of cattle to produce 1,000 tonnes of meat will cost Egypt 15,400 liters of water per kg of meat produced, in addition to costs of services and slaughterhouses. The water scarcity leaves Egypt in a position where it has to choose between that project or to produce the equivalent of four mn tonnes of wheat.

Amr Hamzawy is having a hard time finding the light at the end of the tunnel for Egypt in 2017: The country’s state of affairs, including rampant corruption and excessive reliance on external assistance, has left the former parliamentarian saying there is no reason to be optimistic in a column penned for Al Shorouk. Surprising, we know.

Egyptian designers making beautiful creations: Medrar TV covered the 2016 Cairo Now: A City Incomplete exhibition from Dubai’s Design Week, an event that captured Cairo’s current design landscape in October 2016. The exhibition included work by “designers who make purely Egyptian work, yet in new ways, work with Egyptian craftsmen and use local materials to make their new designs,” curator Mohamed El Shahed says. Besides designs for furniture, lighting fixtures, and recycled materials, the exhibition also included artwork showing a redesigned map for the Cairo Metro, fashion designs, rugs, signage, and comics. El Shahed also explained his vision for the exhibition and reflects on the context from which these creations emerged, including projects that document spontaneous street designs with examples for Cairo’s balconies and street chairs. El Shahed, unfortunately, says it is difficult to say that there is a “design scene” in Egypt now because there are no events like Cairo Now: A City Incomplete for local designer and no economy to support creativity in design (runtime 10:27). H/t Cairobserver

No trade agreements have taken place with Chinese companies since the signing of a currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China, banking sources told Al Borsa. The agreement is expected to facilitate trade between the two countries and is renewable after three years. A government source added that the central bank is considering engaging in a similar agreement with another G7 country.

A syndicate led by BNP Paribas has signed an EPC-plus-finance funding agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company for six new power transmission stations worth EUR 200 mn, Al Borsa reported. Siemens and El Sewedy Electric will be jointly constructing the stations as part of an MoU the Electricity Ministry had signed with Siemens at the Egypt Economic Development Conference in 2015, which also entails developing four existing transmission stations and building two new ones by October 2017. The stations, which will connect the three new Siemens power plants to the national grid, are part of the Electricity Ministry’s EGP 15 bn plan to develop Egypt’s power transmission infrastructure.

Royal Dutch Shell will complete repayment by December 2017 of the second tranche of a USD 2 bn loan issued to BG to build the Idku liquefaction plant, sources told Al Borsa. EGPC agreed to pay USD 480 mn of the first installment due to the Idku plant halting operations in 2012. The Idku plant pays USD 200 mn in annual installments and requires around 22 shipments annually to become self-sufficient. The government has allowed the plant to export around 200 mcf/d since September; the newspaper suggests the plant could ramp up to full operating capacity by 2020.

Oil and gas companies SDX Energy and Merlon International have reportedly reached agreements with their suppliers and contractors in Egypt to repay them in EGP, sources told Al Mal. The initial agreements allowed companies to pay 40% of their receivables in EGP, but the fall in international oil prices, delays in payments from EGPC, and the EGP devaluation have driven the companies to increase the portion they pay in EGP.

DP World could build a dry port near Cairo, Hellenic Shipping News reports. A delegation from the group is expected in Egypt soon, said Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil. A dry port on Cairo’s borders should reduce traffic jams by preventing heavy trucks from entering the city, said Chairman and CEO of DP World Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem.

The government will issue a gold E&P tender in seven concession areas in the Eastern Desert in 2017, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Amwal Al Ghad. The ministry had previously announced in November 2016 that it would be issuing its first gold exploration tender since 2009. Additionally, GANOPE will begin a USD 750 project to survey Red Sea land and offshore areas to promote exploration there this year, he added. Centamin, the country’s largest gold producer, had announced it would not be participating in the tender, citing “unfair terms,” and has reallocated its funds to operations in Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Burkina Faso.

Dairy products manufacturer Juhayna could raise the price of juice and dairy products for a third time in as many months, citing increasing production costs, Al Mal reported. Juhayna joins its FMCG counterparts, who have reportedly increased their prices by 10-40% with the start of 2017. Juhayna had already raised its prices by 10% two months ago, adding a further 15% earlier this week, said company CFO Sameh El Houdaiby. The increases will be limited to 10-15%, El Houdaiby added, noting that the company cannot sustain operations with an FX rate of over EGP 19 per USD 1 without a change in pricing.

The ministerial committee tasked with resolving settlement disputes has postponed reviewing Orascom Housing Communities’ flagship project Haram City, Orascom Hotels and Development (OHD) Chairman Samih Sawiris told Al Mal. OHD had agreed to buy out its US partner’s 15% share following an international arbitration case against the government, but this scenario now seems “unlikely,” he added. Sawiris had previously stated ODH was also unwilling to accept repricing the Haram City land. The international arbitration case could take up to a year and a half, said Sawiris, during which the company will continue to expand existing projects without adding new investments until the case is resolved.

The Tourism Development Authority has formed a legal committee to review a contract with JWT dating to 2015 to promote tourism in Egypt, Al Mal reported. The contract stipulated payments for activities including photoshoots and design work to be in USD-equivalent at the set FX rate of EGP 7.77 per USD 1 and did not take into account the drop in FX rates, sources told Al Mal.

Orange Egypt said it will appeal the court decision imposing a fine of EGP 49.1 mn on it to Telecom Egypt for rerouting calls in North Sinai. Orange Egypt told the EGX it is certain of its legal position and is moving forward with its appeal.

Top Egyptian automotive player GB Auto is reportedly planning to raise sticker prices on its Hyundai and Geely brands (but not Mazda), according to Al Mal, citing unnamed sources as saying prices will rise between EGP 7,500 and EGP 20,000. The newspaper says it requested a clarification from GB Auto on the matter but has yet to receive a response.

The Arab African International Bank (AAIB) has signed a cooperation protocol with the SCZone, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The agreement will allow AAIB to provide credit facilities to investors, in addition to reviewing feasibility studies and development plans for projects planned for the Suez Canal economic zone.

Cabinet rejected a draft law proposed by MP Mostafa Bakry that aimed to strip convicted Egyptian terrorists of their nationality after with Justice Ministry spokesman Haitham Al-Baqli argued that the law would be unconstitutional, according to Ahram Online. According to Al-Baqli, article 53 of the 2014 constitution stipulates that all citizens are equal before the law and should not be discriminated against, “even in terms of penalties leveled against them.”

The House of Representatives is pushing for stricter punishments for [redacted] harassment offenses, Ahram Online reported. The House’s legislative committee approved draft amendments to the anti-[redacted] harassment law on Monday that include a clear definition of harassment that did not exist previously, extended prison terms from six months to one year and fines ranging between EGP 5,000-100,000, depending on the nature of the offense.

The government might be including more public sector companies in its IPO program, Al Borsa reports, including subsidiaries of the Public Enterprises Ministry. The government intends to list a number of petchem companies on the EGX in the first phase of the program, including AMOC and Sidpec, as well as banks including Banque du Caire. The story includes the de rigueur recitation incomplete public-sector voodoo math the number of Ashraf El Sharqawy’s companies that are now profitable and how much revenues have grown.

Egyptian squash players opened up 2017 at the top of the world rankings for men and women. Nour El Sherbini is still the women’s number one player for the ninth straight month, followed by Nouran Gohar, and Raneem El Welily in second and third places, respectively. Omneya Abdel Kawy is also in the top ten, coming in ninth, while Egyptian-American Amanda Sobhy moved up to sixth. Only three non-Egyptians made the men’s top ten list. Mohamed El Shorbagy still tops the rankings, followed by Karim Abdel Gawad, and Gregory Gaultier of France.

Please don’t drive away the last remaining tourists in Egypt: A tourist in Luxor is fed up of the mob at tourist attractions. His strategy to stop them is to wear a red t-shirt that says in Arabic “I don’t want a hantour [horse-drawn carriage] ride, I don’t want a felucca, I don’t want a taxi,” Ahram Gate reports. Slow news day for Ahram, we suppose.